Charting the course of XRP

[jag216]

5 hours ago, Elysium2030 said:

I think you can still be relaxed. First and foremost, XRP follows Bitcoin and when BTC falls, then XRP falls, sometimes more sometimes less.

That is, you should currently focus more on what Bitcoin is doing and there it actually looks good.

"Good" sounds strange, but unlike XRP, BTC is holding its "reaccumulation range" between 37 and 41k. The drop into this zone was expected and as long as Bitcoin does not capitulate, the bull market should be intact.

I now expect 1-2 weeks in this zone and then we will see if BTC attacks 50k+ again.

 

I also found myself strangely comfortable looking at the BTC chart. I think after watching BCBacker I was expecting the market to be a bit more jumpy, but it seems like we are just ranging now - someone needs to buy some time for some reason? LOL. I know I have been rebalancing a little and also looking to see if if I can trade up anything laterally against BTC to something with better utility.

[Julian_Williams]

I do not know if this is valid (I know little about TA), but this is what I am watching on the 4 hour chart (btc)

(For myself I do not believe we have turned into a bear market, it a fear driven correction that was way overdue,  so I am looking of the hints of a recovery from here).  I also do not think people who pulled out to protect what is left of their gains are acting without reason, it is the right thing to do for some people, but not myself (yet).  I would want to see confirmation of bear market from TA analysts and those are not appearing where I am looking right now.

When you invest you take responsibility, you take the gains and losses, It is all on you.

 

Edited May 22, 2021 by Julian_Williams

[NMNR]

Here's some tail analysis on XRP.

*IMPORTANT CAVEATS*

• A lot of the observations are heavily influence by the SEC instigating a lawsuit against Ripple in and around 22nd December 2020. 
• The SEC lawsuit had quite profound price impact from this date till march of January as exchanges delisted XRP - hence a lot of negative returns
• Based on this, the conclusion is a bit more vague and less insightful. 
• The date is based from Mid august 2017 till now
• the data is a combination of XRP returns from Binance and Poloniex

Analysis:

Downside - 1d:

• The 1d downside have quite a few of the current bull cycle dates within the tail
• The worst 1d loss we could have expected was a consequence of the SEC instigating the lawsuit against Ripple which has a large price impact on 23 December 2020
• The recent China FUD had a large 1d price impact on 19 May 2020
• Generally speaking the current cycle price impacts aren't that influential largely because a lot of "panic selling" having already occurred because of the SEC lawsuit AND that there's no clear outcome of the lawsuit itself. This is somewhat "buffering" further losses.

Downside - 10d:

• the 10d results demonstrate how profound the SEC lawsuit against Ripple have been - it's been worse than when we entered the "bear" market in 2018
• The sell-off seen in the recent bull market makes me believe that from an XRP perspective we are far from a bear market at all - there's no 2021 dates in the tail.

 

Upside- 1d:

• Much of the tail consist of when XRP pumped during the last bull cycle
• There are a few dates where market participants saw XRP being oversold because of the SEC instigating the lawsuit against Ripple and were buying the dip
• There are a few dates in November (21st and 23rd) which many think was the real start of the current bull cycle (obviously this was before the SEC instigated the lawsuit against Ripple)
• The dates in April 2021 which depict the current bull cycle coincide with positive sentiment from the lawsuit i.e. the Judge has shown positive actions in Ripple favour

Upside- 10d:

• The tail really hits home that XRP itself is so far from participating in a bull cycle itself.
• There's hardly any dates from the current bull cycle and most of the high returns are heavily influenced from the positive sentiment from the lawsuit i.e. the Judge has shown positive actions in Ripple favour

Edited May 22, 2021 by NMNR

[NMNR]

Here are adjusted results that remove observations from 22 December '20 which is when the SEC made a statement that it was going to sue Ripple

Analysis:

Downside - 1d:

• A lot of the 1d losses largely depict price action from the current bull cycle.
• These moves likely reflect XRP being overbought given that there's no conclusion to the lawsuit so generally people are de-risking
• The 1d results in general don't really say to much about the cycle itself as XRP is a bit of a bystander given the SEC vs Ripple lawsuit

Downside - 10d:

• The tail losses here are extremely bullish. 
• Generally speaking, majority of the losses within the tail depict the previous bull cycle

Upside- 1d:

• A lot of the tail has observations from the existing bull cycle. Now, there are a few dates here which reflect when the bull cycle really started during November '20. Remember, at this point, nobody was aware of the SEC vs Ripple lawsuit.
• Some of the dates in April reflect the optimism of Ripple's defence against the SEC.

Upside 10d:

• You cannot get anymore bullish then this, even with the lawsuit going on!
• XRP has yet to reach any of the highs from the previous bull cycle.
• Generally speaking, the 10d gains vs losses are between a factor or 3 to 5. That is to say, you can expect 3 to 5 times more gains to be had given the downside loss.

Edited May 22, 2021 by NMNR

[retep]

2 hours ago, solid102 said:

I been in this game for 4 years now do you want to know the number of people who were able to predict things 50% of the times correct? Zero.

 

While it is great someone predicted something that turned out to be true now and proclaim to be a genius but even a broken clock is right twice a day.

So in fact all predictions are as good as saying the tank can be half full or be half empty.
 

 

 

[BarnBuilder]

1 hour ago, Julian_Williams said:

 

Is this the beginning of a bearish period or not?  Actually I dont care.  I just want to see price move up with conviction .  

1.  It failed to move up with conviction following the first "crash" on 21 April.  It was rejected at the .702 consistent with previous bear market beginnings.  It was a classic Wycoff distribution.

2. The 2nd crash has resulted in an overall correction of -54% from the ATH.  This has exceeded the magnitude of all corrections within bull markets.

3.  The most recent crash was rejected at the easiest of resistance lines the 200 day SMA.  Historically anything that can not hold the 200 day SMA is not bullish.  Its still possible to retake and hold it, but it did not hold it after the rebound.  This is my first indicator that BTC must complete for me to have any hope.

4.  Watching the 1 min price action for quite some time yesterday, sellers hit the bid ALL day long.  There was no giddy bullish sentiment trading the market yesterday.

5.  If it holds the 200 day SMA, I'm looking for a follow through day.  Today would be ideal.  I dont count the day after the crash.  The short sellers covering and opportunity buyers will turn right back to sellers if we dont follow through.    Within 1 - 3 days we need to see an above average buying day where price rises (even slightly) on above average volume.  

I want to be bullish, but I havent seen any of these simple signs that this is some short term anomaly.

Too me, the motivation for this big dip is this.   Institutional investors missed the party and looked pretty bad to their clients.  They are fully capable of catching up, but the first thing they need to do is figure out how to buy enough crypto to make it worth their time.  Fortunately, the crypto market makes it easy for them.  An asset, like BTC, with 6x profit is easy to create a lot of sellers.  As a bonus, you get the whole crypto market because dump one dump all.  Unfortunately, 2 flash crashes dont generally create enough volume, and my experience is they take their good old time filling up their bags.  They are competing for sellers and they dont need anyone to think its time to buy.  One more thing...they arent on a time schedule and they dont care about the crypto cycle lengths of the past.  In the end, we'll all see this as an interrupted bull market where the market elevator went back to the first floor to pick up institutional investors...emphasis is on first floor.

On a similar note related to XRP.  We continue to hear of daily transfers of millions of shares transferred to exchanges.  Its been a sign they are getting ready to relist XRP.  Not one major exchange has relisted XRP.  So what gives?  I'm beginning to wonder if those shares are going back to exchanges where they are being sold to institutional investors in OTC sales.  I also wonder how those transfers are related to Jed's selling.

[JASCoder]

This thread might be worth the read for some, I got a few things out of it.
( he's got 68k followers, fwiw ) 

 

[Julian_Williams]

1 hour ago, JASCoder said:

This thread might be worth the read for some, I got a few things out of it.
( he's got 68k followers, fwiw ) 

 

yes a very good read.  Interesting he is more worried about a slump in the stock market, and how that would impact the crypto market.  I think that is a big threat too

[Neurotoxin]

7 hours ago, solid102 said:

I been in this game for 4 years now do you want to know the number of people who were able to predict things 50% of the times correct? Zero.

 

While it is great someone predicted something that turned out to be true now and proclaim to be a genius but even a broken clock is right twice a day.

I was right the 3 times that I did it.... and the 3 times it was a small amount 😂 I did at least increase my stack by a few thousand zerps. 

[Guest]

Indications of whale accumulation since around 3 pm UTC based on negative volume index. Let’s see if that translates into a signal.

Edit: Note that this was just on today’s chart. It’s most likely nothing. I’d be more confident if I see this on a longer time scale.

Edited May 23, 2021 by Ripley

[xrp-nuke]

1 hour ago, Ripley said:

Indications of whale accumulation since around 3 pm UTC based on negative volume index. Let’s see if that translates into a signal.

Edit: Note that this was just on today’s chart. It’s most likely nothing. I’d be more confident if I see this on a longer time scale.

Accumulation were hapenning through dump, I would say hand change. Number of stable coins across exchanges ATH. 

Looks like we see a green Sunday afterall, so I decided not to sell any BTC yet, hope we break through 42k.

[Neurotoxin]

1 hour ago, Ripley said:

Indications of whale accumulation since around 3 pm UTC based on negative volume index. Let’s see if that translates into a signal.

Edit: Note that this was just on today’s chart. It’s most likely nothing. I’d be more confident if I see this on a longer time scale.

Hmmm, that IS interesting. Will you keep us updated on this once we do have a longer timeframe? 

[xrp-nuke]

Just now, Neurotoxin said:

Hmmm, that IS interesting. Will you keep us updated on this once we do have a longer timeframe? 

Can you just learn to get on chain analysis yourself 🤣🤣🤣 

[Seoulite]

Times like this I generally stay away from this thread, because the negativity and panic of some people makes these times a bit harder. Not singling anyone out, I have literally not read any posts, but I know what I am likely to see.

Obviously this is not what we want to see short term, but you have to trust the long term, trust that you have made the right decision for yourself. If you weren’t planning to sell any time soon or anywhere near these levels anyway then it is good to take time away from the charts at times like this.

Nothing goes up in a straight line. Markets must come down to go up, it is a law of nature. It helps to consider the mechanisms at work here. For every sell here there is a buy, and those buyers are not looking to take profit right here. They have a higher target than the people who bought at twenty and thirty cents. It is these people who will give us the legs to go to the higher levels. Furthermore, the people more likely to sell are being self-selected out of the market, leaving the people who are stubborn holders or people entering at these levels. These groups together provide the foundation for the next step up.

 Nothing fundamentally has changed. Long term looks up. Relatively short term looks up too, expecting 1.10 today. The weekly candle close will be informative, but I also think it won’t be decisive. If we are going up long term like we expect, then around here will be the low of the new range. Think of 80 cents like the new 10 cents.

Of course I could be wrong and everything is going to stay down. That is a possibility. In the end my belief is 99% certain that xrp will at some point go back to the ATH. 

In the meantime I have been buying FLR IOUs on the dip. I am extremely excited for what is going to come. The SEC case still looks positive for Ripple. Don’t forget all the negative press that has come out in major outlets. That hasn’t changed just because the price went down.

Anyway when everything is bullish it is fun to follow the market. But if you are not looking to exit your position soon then following every move right now only serves to ruin your day.

Hold tight everyone. We are not done yet.

Edited May 23, 2021 by Seoulite

[Wolfaolyth]

ADA and XRP are heavily shorted right now : 

https://datamish.com/xrpusd/7d

A short squeeze on this would be epic