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Molten

Charting the course of XRP

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Now, we can take a look at the BTC dominance ascending wedge that I have been watching started on the other thread.  We bounced right off of the lower trend line, which really confirms for me that this is a real pattern worth watching.  Now, I don't like at all how we did it (alts dumping even worse than BTC) but it still validates the pattern.

I expect that we will now make our way back up towards BTC dominance around 70-71% (hopefully this will be because BTC rallies a little more than everyone else and not drops a little less than everyone else). 

For those that don't know, this ascending wedge pattern is ultimately a bearish pattern that looks set to complete mid-late September.  This would (hopefully) mean alt season approaches.  I would very much prefer that it does so with BTC showing strength.  I've never been much of a fan of BTC but I am right now.

27rFTpRi

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Another take way from today: BTC has been framed as having an inverse correlation to the stock market, rather like gold, and I do not agree with that assessment at all.  Today is good proof of that; the stock market took quite a hit and so did BTC.  I don't think there is any reasonable correlation between the two and we are a long way from BTC being viewed as a safe haven asset.   It is a "risk on" asset, just like stocks.  Nothing that can drop this far, this fast, can be considered a safe haven.

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Thnx Molten!

I can't say anything better then "let's see what happens"

What does make me wonder is

4 minutes ago, Molten said:

One point to note: we are obscenely oversold on 15 min, 4H, daily, whatever time frame you want to look at it.

How do you (not you perse, but an analist) decide when something is oversold. I've heard the 'we are oversold' when we we're bouncing around 30 cents also, yet there was a massive sell.

What metrics show being oversold on a chart? Orderbooks?

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Good question. I look at Bollinger Bands mainly with the moving average.  Let's take a look at the 1H for example:

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See how far outside we are from the bottom of the green band?  Let's zoom out a little and you will see how often there is a correction (either up or down) when we get outside of the bands at all, let alone this far out:

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You can see every time we get outside (usually the upside in this case) there is a big sell off to bring us back down.  Same thing applies here.

People who were saying that we were oversold when we were around $0.30 were saying that more from a fundamental (or more likely emotional) standpoint.  They wanted to believe that XRP was "worth" more than $0.30, taking into account their expectations of what the future price would be.  Markets may not be rational (and crypto is surely not a rational market) but the price is what it is.  That being said, I can't find an instance in the last year or more where we have fallen this far outside of the bands.  Oversold - this is not any sort of guarantee that we will bounce, but I think it likely that we will.

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Last last thought for now.  This drop below support, in my view, was absolutely necessary for XRP if it is going to have a big run.  Note that I am not saying that it means that we will have a run, just that it was necessary to launch us.  I think the Wyckoff people would agree with me here, but I don't pretend to understand that stuff.

Now we wait and see if the drop was both necessary and sufficient....

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4 minutes ago, Molten said:

Last last thought for now.  This drop below support, in my view, was absolutely necessary for XRP if it is going to have a big run.  Note that I am not saying that it means that we will have a run, just that it was necessary to launch us.  I think the Wyckoff people would agree with me here, but I don't pretend to understand that stuff.

Now we wait and see if the drop was both necessary and sufficient....

why was it necessary? can't we just continue to say we need to drop to 10 cents if this were to run again?

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Posted (edited)

It's not quite a prerequisite but if you look at the charts for BTC and XRP, the big runs are preceded by ~20% dips just before the take off.  Perhaps it was a bit strong to say that it was "necessary" but it is a common theme and one that I expected.  Now we just have to wait for the follow through.

You won't hear me saying that we need another big drop from here.  I view this as a critical moment for the near term price action.  Any more dropping from here spells trouble.

Edited by Molten

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Yes, rather along the lines I was thinking.  Notice that if we follow the textbook, there will be another test of support around $0.246 and then off we go.  Or, and this feels like a disclaimer that I am making more often, everything goes to Hell in a hand basket.

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