Guest Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 Given today's action, I thought this warranted a new thread since I don't want to keep distracting from the excellent content in @Eric123's thread. So first some thoughts. It is funny because I predicted a drop to $0.24-0.26 and still was surprised and a little jolted by the drop. Probably the suddenness of it that rattled me, which reminds us that we are still playing in a very manipulated market. Now, what did this drop mean for XRP? We finally broke a long term support at $0.28, which you could certainly see as a bad thing. We did find support at a second level, right around $0.24, but this is a much less tested support and thus less significant than the old $0.28 line. We dropped briefly below it but did fight back up with decent volume, which is something. Our new support line goes way back oddly enough to almost exactly one year ago. Two things can happen here. The first (and I think more likely) is that we go back down and test again (double bottom), followed by a "relief rally" that should take us back up to $0.30-$0.36. Oddly enough, if you are a trader, that represents around a 25% return if you have the cajones to make the trade. The second scenario is that we break down below the $0.24 level with volume and then, I would say, we are in a bit of trouble. Not a lot of support down below and I think this would really damage the psychology around XRP, possibly crypto in general if the drop is widespread. I am holding some money ready to deploy here but I'm not buying quite yet. If it does fall like that, then the doubt of "throwing good money after bad" starts to become a little more prevalent. That said, and this is the important part, nothing has fundamentally changed with XRP except the price. It is still the best crypto from a technological standpoint, still the only one with any sort of real adoption, and Ripple is still making good progress on continuing to grow its use case. If you were unable to see the price, only the news, you'd probably feel pretty good about your investment! More to come but the chart below depicts our new best friend, the $0.246 line. One point to note: we are obscenely oversold on 15 min, 4H, daily, whatever time frame you want to look at it. If rationality wins the day, now is a good time to buy. I am a bit of a cautious fellow, so I'm going to watch a little bit more, understanding that I may be missing an opportunity to add to my position at an excellent price point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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