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Everything posted by Seoulite

  1. Maybe Flare are planning to actually launch the next protocol? Could it be true?
  2. It seems like the big difference is being made by the amount of people in the pool. Is it worth buying SFIN directly and then putting it in the SFIN/CAND pool? The problem is that these APYs have already started to fall. Who knows how low they go.
  3. These closely match the platform itself, which lists 436% APY for SFIN/CAND and 99% for CAND.
  4. I think the pool supply is how many SFIN will be given out by that pool. So at .401 a day, 143 SFIN is just under a year.
  5. Thanks for this, and thanks to @RobertHarpool too. Jnr's calculations seem closer to the risk/reward profile. Robert your initial calculations have SFIN-SFIN as the highest reward but that doesn't make sense to me because it is a single-sided pool carrying no risk and very little opportunity cost (in terms of different ways to use SFIN compared to EXFI, SGB, etc). Jnr's calculations seem closer too because it tracks with how people are likely to be behaving. EXFI/CAND LP is offering the highest return partly because fewer people are in the pool. Why? Because as Robert said it means exiting Songbird/Flare and being all into Flare Finance. At the moment I am in the EXFI/SGB LP, and looking at the calculations I could be making more if I transferred that value to EXFI/CAND but that means losing my SGB and as I wrote above I'm just not ready to do that. I've already converted a decent chunk of my SGB to EXFI and even that is a little jittery. So the guys who are going all-in on FF are getting the most rewards from FF and that makes sense. The single pools should offer the worst return, with CAND being the lowest because it is theoretically the least risky. SFIN/CAND has a good return at the moment I think partly because of the limited amount of available SFIN. EXFI/SGB is giving a little less return because more people are in the pool because it is comparatively less risky.
  6. I agree that no one cares about it. But that leaves no value proposition except speculation, right?
  7. Thanks for this. So at the moment there is virtually no demand for buying SFIN on the open market except as a highly speculative investment. That is true of almost all crypto projects but SFIN itself is designed almost exclusively as a speculative asset with an implicit promise of high unit price. At the moment anyone who wants SFIN is staking/LPing to get it. Later, if Flare and FF become successful, then the potential for high prices in the related tokens will increase and so then I think we might see more buying on the open market and the 'scarcity' built into SFIN might assert itself. Until then, there's no real reason the SFIN price won't continue to bleed out and/or simply follow the movement of the other assets.
  8. Does anyone know of a way to calculate this or a website that is keeping track of it? Would help to be able to calculate the current market cap to see how representative the price is in reference to other cryptos. Comparing the whole supply cap isn’t really helpful.
  9. @brianwalden just kidding about the whale thing. But also I wanted to ask if I go more into the ExFi SGB pool then I will need to swap some of my SGB into ExFi. I think that’s what makes me reluctant, I’m not as in love with ExFi as I am with SGB, although I could greatly increase my SFIN yield by doing that. I dunno, turning fifty percent of my remaining songbird into ExFi feels a bit iffy.
  10. During a downturn like this I tend to look away from the price, an approach that has served me well in the past. If I see the price is very low then I try to find a way to buy some more, but in general I just stay quiet. Crypto winter is a time for hibernating. However it seems the smartest among us tend to use this time to sniff around for other opportunities. For example, our resident whale @brianwalden has his fingers in many pies, as do a lot of you I'm sure, you just don't talk about it. So in hoping to follow along with this approach, I am messing around with Songbird Finance and using spreadsheets and everything like I'm some bigshot on wallstreet or something. I started off real safe: those single-sided farm pool things. Basically this is the kiddie pool. You lose nothing, but you also gain relatively little. FF has started to add the APY onto the UI; not all of them are there but the lowest yield single pool (CAND) is currently at 143% APY. Compare to the SFIN/CAND LP which is at 554% APY. So I started off in the kiddie pool but quickly got bored. My stacks are not big but they are also not so small as to make the whole exercise futile, so I wanted to see if I could get some real passive income on the go. I was doing spreadsheets and trying to figure out how much this would all compound to (I was originally compounding twice a day, now once a day, at my level the difference is not huge but it ends up being a whole lot of transactions every time regardless) and no doubt making hideous errors in calculations. I decided to start providing liquidity. I saw a strat on Twitter a guy was using: being in LPs, then claiming and swapping the SFIN 50/50 with something else then putting that into the LP, thereby increasing your LP tokens. Also doing a similar thing with the SGB delegation rewards. Seemed like a simple strat and one I could understand so I'm following it. Reward rates for LP tokens are about 4 times as much as single-sided pools, and the SFIN supply is also bigger. I'm not sure but I also believe the overall pools are much larger on the single-sided, because they are the risk-free ones. It is hard for me to calculate all that but it makes sense intuitively. So now my rewards are much better but I am exposed to IP which I still don't fully understand but I figure is worth the risk. I haven't put all or even most of my SGB into the LPs because I don't fully understand IP and I like my SGB, I would like to know very simply what price it is by looking at the chart. If (when) SGB and Flare really get going, I would like to know about it. I am guessing that the reward rates will continue to decline, as they have done with SGB. As more people come in. However, considering that the rate of rewards means the SFIN is distributed within less than a year, that doesn't give people much time. So I am wondering if the 'compounding' of rewards will really only help to maintain one's share of the overall pool, which is not bad but not the same as compounding in the traditional sense. Anyway this has been a rambling post but I just wanted to share some thoughts. I haven't been following the troubles with the Flare loans platform, in fact Mickey and Patty put a vid about it up today, and I haven't been in it so I haven't been negatively affected. My experience so far with FF has been smooth and the platform performs pretty well considering there must be so many moving parts and so many people doing stuff all the time. I can really see how it boosts the amount of activity on the network, which is great. I also think prices of everything will recover, including SFIN and EXFI. Price downturns like this are scary but as I said in the beginning, there are two ways to deal with it: look away from the price and work on some other areas. I'm not saying I'm successful at the second one but I'm giving it a go and it is also satisfying to see 'number go up' even if it is 0.00000000001 to 0.00000000002. Good luck all.
  11. I will also say that this doesn't hurt my view of FF that much. They have launched a highly complex financial instrument, and it's more or less going OK (if the price is the only thing pissing people off). I have branched out into the LPs and am satisfied with the SFIN rewards I can claim each day. If SFIN, SGB, and EXFI perform in any way like other new cryptos, eventually I am expecting a large increase in price. Not financial advice, but if you look back at any new project you will see long periods of low low prices before the spikes. Then everyone looks back and says man I wish I bought there. Well you didn't buy there because the chart sucked and didn't look like it would change. The people who bought there were the risk takers, the true believers, and the madmen. That's us for Flare. Remember in the background the state connector is still coming, S-assets are still coming, and then Flare itself is still coming.
  12. Hmm while I don't doubt that this is happening and that it has affected the price to an extent, I am skeptical as ever when people attribute one cause to price action. I suppose with a tiny market like this, and only two pairs, this kind of manipulation has an outsized effect but as the ecosystem grows it will become less important. Price manipulation is happening all the time in all markets, from gold to sugar to btc. The difference here is that the market is small enough for someone to pick up on how it's being done. IMO the price is down for a few reasons: general slowdown in crypto, lack of movement with regards to Flare itself, lack of movement with regards to State Connector and S-assets on SGB, etc. I think these various delays have likely hurt the price more than people messing with the loans. I feel bad for people losing out, but every market is rigged against you, so don't feel too bad. Also don't play around with loans and liquidations, especially on a platform as new and small as this. International forex brokers will screw you with liquidations, how much more true will that be in an unregulated market such as this?
  13. I don’t know the mechanism because I don’t know all the ins and outs of this system, which is the reason why I’m not in LPs or loans or anything. But I have no trouble believing that with a little money and knowledge you could cause a cascade in this system.
  14. Hover over your unclaimed amount with your cursor and it should show.
  15. Agree with this. The same is true for margin trading and options trading. These are complicated mathematical formulas that can be explained a million times but you only understand by doing. Also you don’t feel the risk of these things until you get burned. It is a very rare person who doesn’t need that pain to understand it.
  16. Title says it all. Lots of people in the Discord are talking about how the system is twisting and some oriole are getting trapped and losing lots of money. Obviously this is always a risk of crypto and using financial instruments but is it also something to do with the DeFi tools that they are running? Anyway I’m thankful I stuck to the safest and lamest strat. Also I bought too early and missed the bottom again.
  17. Just bought a little more ExFi. I like this price. Keeping a little money aside because I usually buy too high before the bottom is in. I would guess around 4 is a decent bottom, or here. But honestly I have no idea. For a token with this supply less than a dollar is too low.
  18. Yeah I like that stuff, I used to be into cognitive biases a lot. Learned some useful stuff. Never forgot this infographic that lists a bunch of them: https://www.teachthought.com/critical-thinking/cognitive-biases/
  19. I am only stacking SGB in the FTSO, I still think it's the best play while we are still early in the ecosystem. So I haven't used any SGB for FF, and am just using the EXFI to farm for SFIN at the moment. The pools and loans and all that stuff still seem a bit strange for me, and I don't have the time right now to track positions for IP or whatever. So i'm just going for the easy do-nothing strategy.
  20. You must've had a small amount of SGB in that wallet at the time of the snapshot!
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