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Everything posted by BarnBuilder

  1. The volume profile is heavy over the last week in the 35K-37K range. I expect some of those buyers will want out when the price returns because I'm sure there are some that didnt like the last shakedown. If that volume is light because those are mostly long term holders then it will go fairly rapidly. If they are nervous holders, it will take a while to absorb the volume and price may step back a bit. I wasnt very bullish a month ago, but I'm starting to give this a 50/50 chance to at least explore some nice profit level runs. Just breaking out of the 30-40K range might change the narrative to put this correction in the rear view mirror. The weekly and monthly TA is terrible, however, I'm seeing the shorter time frames lead upwards. The heavy selling has really tapered off. Combined with very attractive prices, I'm getting cautiously optimistic. I'm waiting to see what happens at 35-37K before I increase my position size. Right now I'm buying every dip.
  2. If you've heard about the dark side of Tether but have never seen all the pieces put together this video does that. I think the interesting thing is that, eventhough you might not have USDT, a failure of Tether could significantly affect crypto. I thought it was a good watch.
  3. As the price drops, there are minor upwards corrections along the way. Yesterday we saw capitulation selling, and a strong rebound. I started buying at capitulation. We broke above and retested the previous downward channel which is even better so I added more. While I think downward pressure over the next few months is possible, I think there's upside right now. I missed the opportunity to sell at 41.5K, but the oscillations are widening and I think I'll get another chance. The bottom line is that I trade daily/intraday, and I see opportunities over the next few days. Who knows maybe I'm on the train to 300K. Gotta stay in the game to find out, but my investment is still only 10% of my crypto portfolio so its just like I'm testing the waters. Recently, I took a small loss because I sold my small position at 33-36K after it missed my sell order at 41.5K. Again, that doesnt mean I'm out. I just have to protect my trade. Once a new opportunity presented itself, I got right back on. I think there is a very good chance this returns back to 29-31K. I'll add in that range, and be a lot more bullish if that retest holds. I am also keeping a closer eye on the DJIA and NDX. The NDX just set an ATH and DJIA is trading above the centerline of its power channel. So, while I see some cracks in the DJIA, its still bullish.
  4. What is so positive about whales accumulating? History shows they do this in a bear market that conceivably would have just gotten started. Equating whales buying BTC at a 60% discount with a bull market is wrong. Somebody is buying here - duh. If not, we'd have been at 10K a month ago. This isnt news. A BGC isnt going to be enough to reverse the downward spiral. It might slow it down, but we need a lot more buying to reverse this mess - aka significant follow through with volume. We need to see better volume than the fading volume we're seeing immediately after the rebound. If the volume doesnt pick up then I dont see how a bull run will get any traction. Volume has been the truth teller for quite some time now.
  5. I'd say that was capitulation selling. I added. My original Wycoff broke down, however, I've seen it redrawn a bit better and it lines up now and makes more sense with the spring phase C. I also agree that the oscillations seem to be getting wider which bodes better for a longer upswing. The GBTC unlock periods are on us, however. Capitulation means essentially all sellers are gone and the market can move off the bottom freely. Those GBTC customers are ones likely to buy large amounts so we'll have to see how they play their cards. A rally for them to sell into would be convenient for them wouldnt it?
  6. On top of what you say, the whole crypto market was born and has existed within a global market bubble. It's never been tested in a real bear market where banks have been too big to fail, auto industries go bankrupt, dot com's disappear, discretionary income dries up etc. My concern isn't with digital asset industry or bitcoin, it's how they will perform in a bear market where there are no data points. The only fact we'll be able to rely on is that prices will get extremely reduced, and there will be NO buyers. I try to envision a crypto bear market cycle on top of a stock market meltdown/recession .... now if BTC survives something like this then you'll want to own a bunch because the concept of scarcity makes it a valuable asset.
  7. This tweet is completely backwards. Whales sell during bull market run ups and accumulate during bear markets. Retailers buy during the run ups and sell during the pull backs. Just got done reading the glassnode weekly report and whales are accumulating, retailer sellers owning coins <6 month dominate blockchain traffic selling at a loss, and miners are dumping. Its all in the report. https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-on-chain-week-25-2021/
  8. I'm not too disappointed about overestimating the pump. I saw it retrace from 41.5k and could have easily gotten out at 40k. I wanted to give the reversal off 32K bottom some time to develop and I figured it would retest the 41.5K at least once. I would have gotten out if a retest didn't break 41.5K but it never looked back. 40K would have been a safer exit, but at some point I have to hold or I'll never see the larger moves. I'm looking for a larger move, and I really didnt expect it to dump straight back to 32K. I'm skeptical that it can hold the 30K bottom for much longer to be honest. I'll buy down to 30K with another small buy, but I might as well be rolling the dice. June 23rd is nothing but risk imo. I think those GBTC unlocks go through July 19th? Those are larger OTC purchases and the market is having trouble absorbing any volume. Not sure how its going to absorb any sales that come from those lockups. Inevitably there will be some.
  9. You are going to need buyers before the narrative changes. The only thing that kept BTC from going below 32K was the selling dried up at 32K (for the moment). I saw the 32K price defended vigorously over Memorial Day weekend, but not last night. Sorry, but that's no longer a given. I sold 25% of the small position I had at 36K. I was going to hold tight until I saw support break at 32K. I'm still holding, but I'm breaking all my rules. I guess I can do that when its only a small position. We are fortunate that the DJIA came out positive or I'm pretty sure we'd be much lower than 32K. I started to see BTC track the DJI on Friday. I hadnt watched that before but the movement was similar to what alt coins do with BTC.
  10. You better watch this video. My expectations of BTC's bump are falling short - its all talk and no volume. This rally from 32K has been as lame as they get. I'm still holding, but only until we break through the upper half of the triangle that was support and should now be resistance - which we are currently sitting on. I'm not going to go into the reality of what most of you dont want to recognize, but maybe you'll watch this video and start understand. Finally, someone gets it and is starting to tie the short cycle BTC bull run to topping of the stock market. Thanks to @Julian_Williams for introducing this YouTuber - I've been following him and his analysis is solid. Personally, I see a Wycoff distribution where the DJIA bounces from here, but I'll let the charts give the final answer. If you havent looked at the DJIA daily chart I recommend you do so. Oh, and by the way, BTC has only existed within the larger stock/investing bull market. Do you think all the BTC models that have been adopted during one of the greatest bull markets in history will stay true during a bear market? Hmmmm.....if you say yes, I remind you there is no data.
  11. One last step of the Wycoff accumulation. Chop between 39-42K before the final markup phase. Personally, I'm going to add after the price retraces from 42.5K and holds between 39-40K. That will be complete my accumulation.
  12. BTC looks like it may have a chance to move upwards. How much I'm not sure, but its on the move. The alts have all disconnected from BTC pricing - they arent moving in synch with BTC prices. The sells are pronounced. BTC dominance is going up and the alts are selling off. This has happened almost the entire pump from BTC's latest bottom. This is perhaps the most worrisome sign I've seen.
  13. We continue to hold the price and let nervous sellers sell. The Wycoff pattern continues to show validity. The latest pause is consistent with breaking through resistance at the previous upper symmetrical triangle line and turning it into support. This weekend will be important because, if price can not move up quickly, the bearish statistics will continue to add up.
  14. Not out of the woods, and I'm still bearish, but the price action is what it is. The price was held 3 times at 32K and that was good enough for me to buy. Now the question is how high will it go. Answer is? Eric123 = 400k, Blockchain Backer 75K, JP Morgan 120K. Me, I have no idea, but they protected the golden goose from catastrophe so far so who knows what the next step is. All I can say is the buying is relentless. Yesterday I bought every dip and the price never failed to soar even higher. Short sellers are absolutely not buying this pump. Short interest has gone exponential (see below). Too me, that is good because the price went up against that additional sell pressure. The real sellers between 30-36K have clearly been exhausted as we witnessed in the dwindling volume during the symmetrical triangle. So, this push was easy. 38K is the upper edge of the symmetrical triangle. Wycoff accumulation pattern shows some headwinds here, and then off to the races. If price pushes through this level, I believe there will be a rush of buying off the breakout from the symmetrical triangle. With sustained intensity upward, the news narrative will turn bullish again. If we are going to a 2nd top, too me, its do or die. My bags are now full of BTC. I'll rotate out if it breaks down at 38K or I dont see volume at this price. If it gets past 38-40K, I'll reevaluate at 54K which is the .702 fib. If it stalls there I'll probably be selling something. If it breaks 54K the I'll sell at 75K. Thats my plan. The real question is what are the alts going to do? Looks like there is rotation back into BTC for now.
  15. There's no technical reason to disagree with xrp-nuke's statement at this point. It failed to break that barrier 3x and wiped out from there. The death cross is imminent and history shows prices do not recover to all time highs from there. From the recent 31k to 39.5k is a 27% increase. That's not bad profit. But to go higher, it will have to demonstrate it can defy TA and break 39.5K, get above the 200 dma, get above the 50 dma, and drive the 50 dma back above the 200 dma. Tough ask imo. For now, I'm taking advantage of the bump, but keeping my long term view in line with xpr-nuke.
  16. The doomsday scenario of 20K seems less likely at this point. Price action in the low 30K range again showed buyers outnumber sellers. Buyers have refused to let price drop below 30K and this time, despite a lot of FUD, we really didnt even threaten 30K. I'm beginning to see the Wycoff accumulation pattern emerge as a means to visualize a recovery. So far we see a big bump off the bottom of the spring. Volume is robust. Sellers are selling, but buyers are eating it up. I'm looking for a retrace within the next day or so that tests the low around 33300
  17. I'm going on intuition . XRPWave said its going up. I have another buy in at 30250. I'm sure the hrly RSI will be 17 by then
  18. I started buying at 32K. Small size. I'm adding slightly larger sizes at 31.5K and 30.25K based on those long wicks. I'll put a stop loss on each one of those at 10%. I watched the bulls defend the lower support line for 2 long weekends as the shorts attacked. My trade setup was when they pulled the bid and let price drop below the support. They are confident they can hold it, now they are looking to set up the up move with a final capitulation shakeout that looks so gnarly we all shake. If I'm wrong, we'll have more to talk about at 20K. I expect to take a drawdown on this initial purchase but I have to start accumulating some time.
  19. TA does involve pure sentiment. I believe market makers trade purely off of our fear and greed. The more a chart looks like it should do something, the better the opportunity they have to confuse, and fool us and shake out the weak hands. It is hard to discuss TA on a TA thread based on pure sentiment, however, it has its place as long as its respectful. I think TA has to include everyone's perspective along with the charts. I value gut instinct eventhough from the TA perspective is difficult to quantify and chart.
  20. Once the death cross occurs, history shows this is true. That doesnt mean price can not increase, but ATH's are tough to come by after this.
  21. I updated a very bearish prediction last night that is based on a corrective line fractal that I simply copied from the 2017 market top and laid over top of the current chart. They match up frighteningly well once you assume that this cycle did not have a blowoff top. In fact, it predicted this latest breakdown. I plotted that line not because I believe its true or the most logical outcome, but to show myself the possibility that the market top is in and the bullish narrative might be wrong. There are an overwhelming number of other indicators, but this one really answered my question for me. At that point, the risk to reward became too high for me and I pulled the rest of my money out of the market. Now, I have the problem of not wanting to miss a major pulse up, or worse yet, a restart of the bull market. So, I'm looking for an opportunity to jump back in, and I cant be too bearish or I'll miss it. Here is a more realistic possibility that I see potentially unfolding. Frankly, I was slow to react to the correction in April because I was in disbelief based on the bull market narrative that this is "normal". I tried to fit a Wycoff accumulation pattern into the price action when it was really a Wycoff distribution. Well, I learned a lot about the Wycoff accumulation during that period . The biggest take away is that distribution is into rising prices and accumulation is into lowering prices. This latest base period is starting to match up with a Wycoff accumulation. If true, this latest dip may be the latter phase of the pattern - eventhough Wycoff's are historically very long cycles. In this case, we may take out the 30K low, but if you are hodling, dont lose heart. I believe the best time to spring out of the mess would be at the death cross which I predict will happen around Jun 15. At that point, I believe market sentiment will be extremely fearful and the best time to keep the order books light. There is precedence for this. I'll be looking to take a big position on a reversal sign down here.
  22. I'm starting to wonder if BTC and the crypto market could be a leading indicator of a larger stock market correction? If it is true, it would be valuable for a lot of people. Here are some reasons why I'm thinking that. 1. Stock market gains were getting harder and harder and incrementally less last year. The risk of a market top seems higher. Crypto offered much better volatility and upside potential so we've seen money pour in. 2. The higher tech Nasdaq showed its first sign of weakness even though it recovered nicely. The crypto market is even more cutting edge than the tech Nasdaq and my reasoning is it will take the hit even before the Nasdaq. 3. BTC has never existed outside a historic bull market like we've been in for over 10 yrs now. All of its corrections have been supported by the upmarket bullish sentiment. Crypto is volatile and major corrections have been "like" a bear market, but they've never really occured in an upmarket bear market. From that perspective, I can understand why all the BTC historians and hodler's are adamant to buy the dip. But nobody really knows what happens to BTC in a real bear market? Will the outcome be different? Is what is happening because the larger market is beginning to roll over and the crypto industry is first? Is it possible that this has disrupted the crytpo cycle? I dont claim to have the answer. Any thoughts?
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