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Everything posted by Julian_Williams

  1. Yes, I recognised the ambiguity in your original comment and used it as a launch pad for some further thoughts.
  2. Very likely wrong. Yes we may be stuck in this channel for a while to come. Yes, people are not interested in XRP like they were two years ago, but no, this is not going to go on like this for years. The developments in the XRPecosystem are real and meaningful. They will touch peoples lives and people will make their calculations that XRP is going to grow, and they will begin to invest. Kitao is launching an advertising campaign for SBI in Japan in September. These sorts of initiative might well begin another gold rush. A gold rush may start anywhere because XRP is launching initiatives and opening offices in every continent. Unfortunately as holders we have to bob along on the waves looking out a the horizon day and after day, never quite knowing when we will see land ahoy. It might be months, it might start slowly, or we could find ourselves being lifted over night. That is the dilemma of holding XRP.
  3. XRP is the obvious choice for Cross-border-fiat-to-fiat-variable-velocity-streaming. But a national stable coin might be the appropriate choice for local streaming. For instance Stefan Thomas was talking of things like wages being streamed, instead of making people wait until the end of month. Mortgages/rents could be streamed instead of going out in big lumps. He thinks these sorts of payment schemes might help people on limited income to keep their budgets in order. In my business I sell gifts and greeting cards. The artist gets a percentage, the warehouse gets a percentage, the sales agent gets a percentage. All of these things are calculated at the end of the month, but they could be calculated inside the invoice and be streamed. Every time an invoice is issued the money could be streamed to the beneficiaries. Shops like to take stock on sale or return (we refuse this sort of business but many big companies do this sort of business). Technically the payments could be triggered on a streamed service that is triggered by the person at the shop counter scanning an item that is being sold. Amazon could easily build this sort of system into their warehouses where the product triggers a stream of payments as it leaves the depot. A hospital could have its medications streamed; the drug company providing stock which is paid for as it is used. There are ten thousand use cases for streamed money that is integrated with intelligent software.
  4. Yes Coil is game changing. Coil is about Live Streaming Payments. Instead of money arriving in lumps it becomes like a liquid flowing out of a hose. The money is not only liquid, it is also arriving at different velocities like petrol going into a carburettor when you put your foot on an accelerator. With this sort of money you can build very different technology. Spending money or providing services for money becomes more akin to driving. The power intensifies when you put your foot down and inject more money into the system, the engine runs slower when the power supply slows down. Now how does technology use this new sort of money? I tell you a lot of the utility for this sort of money is transformative across huge swathes of business. Most of it is beyond your wildest imaginings. For instance you take a train and find the carriages are full so you sit for the first few hours in a first class carriage, then the train empties and you move to the second class carriages. The cost of the trip is deducted according to where you were sitting in the train. Then the train gets delayed and the train company starts refunding you for your inconvenience. So money and lifestyle and your means come become intermingled. Living within your means becomes more intuitive. This technology will be everywhere.
  5. That visual showing how much money Ripple are investing in Coil is a big story. A little while ago I watched a video where Stefan Thomas explained how they designed the architecture of XRP (or was it Codius) to be very open and flexible to accommodate change. He mentioned how he was avoiding the pitfall ETH had fallen into, apparently ETH is written in a very dense manner with too many options. In a nutshell his mantra is: Built in plasticity wins over accommodating long lists of options for every imagined eventuality. This guy has a very intelligent approach to developing software. He helped design XRP and now he is going after being first in a very big market he has identified. I am quite sure the present iteration of Coil is open to changing to fit the markets that emerge. I think people should not think the way Coil has been launched has much to do with how it will look in five years time. Coil as it presently stand is an opportunity to get a few techies and XRP fanclub involved. This early in the project feedback is king and people like Hodor and Crypto Eri are doing their bit. Streaming payments is not just about videos and entertainment. I have many subscriptions: Business accounting software, Adobe design suites, Trade reference suites, Address finding software, Microsoft Office, Norton spam filters, mobile phones, voip phones and online tutorial services. This is costing my business many thousands a year. I do not like the blanket fees these software companies charge and would far prefer to pay by usage. My wife has a car she uses once a year. Again the insurance should be on usage in real time. Car hire should be streamed on usage. Parking meters should start when I park and stop when I leave. Streaming payments will be huge. Coil are building something with the plasticity to take advantage of the markets as they emerge, that's why Ripple are putting so much money behind their former CTO.
  6. Teaching pigs to sing opera - great phrase! I cannot comment on SEC law, only make the observation that SEC is the openly tolerant of Ripples behaviour. This issue has been live for 18 months and SEC have a duty to raise an alert if Ripple are still transgressing and scamming the public. The fact that they have not seems to indicate that the illegal behaviour is already in the past. That does not mean that they will not penalise Ripple. SEC have said several times that they have an open door for companies like Ripple to come and discuss the legality of what they do. It seems very obvious that Ripple and SEC have been talking with each other and that there has been a willingness on both sides to remove the ambiguity and reach a resolution. For this reason I do not believe SEC have intentions to do a lot more than retrospectively slap Ripples hands. I think Ripple know that if the tokens are to become a bridging asset worth perhaps 100 dollars each they will not be allowed to continue own 50% of the world stock XRP. For this reason I believe any resolution would include Ripple giving away or destroying unsold stock. The unsold stock could be a big asset and very important for the smooth running of the currency. I disagree with you about the importance of pan national pressure from countries like the UK, Singapore and Japan. The US has a strong incentive to keep in line with regulations in these three world financial centres and SEC will try not to rock the boat.
  7. SEC have said more than once that a crypto may start as a security and morph out of being a security. The wording looked like it was deliberately targeted as a green light towards Ripple. My impression is that the situation has being drifting from Grey to black and white, and the more time passes, the more XRP is adopted, the more XRP is free from this security label. If I was SEC I would not fine Ripple, instead I would ask them to put 90% of the XRP they own into some sort of fund for the benefit of growing the XRP ecosystem and administered by a third party. As you write Ripple were first mover, the laws are getting sufficiently clear now to act on scams before these sorts of situations arise. That the UK have given the green light to XRP indicates to me that the US SEC agency is coming under strong international pressure to end this regulatory ambiguity.
  8. What happens is that the system becomes more highly tuned for both sides. I expect you are fairly well organised and better off than many, in which case you do not altogether represent how many people live. Streaming payments happens in real time and you can slow down expenditure when you are feeling nervous, become more lavish when you are feeling optimistic and bullish. I imagine about car insurance companies will still offer flat rates, but the pay as you go option will be there too. Just like you can buy a payasyou go phone or buy a monthly/yearly contract.
  9. I do not agree with you although I appreciate your point of view. Some people who suddenly get rich retain their frugal instincts others become wasteful. I am pretty sure the same can be said of companies. One of the best indicators of Ripple going wasteful would be seen in their offices, cars and salaries; are they wasting money on having plush offices, expensive cars and huge bonuses and salaries. Swell, with speeches by Bill Clinton, look a bit a bit lavish? No way of knowing about their salaries or bonuses (David Swartz recently sold a lot of his XRP to "de-risk", this seems to indicate he does not get a huge salary and huge bonuses? ). So we are left with the looking at their offices and cars (has anyone noticed Brad in a super expensive car, are their offices unnecessarily large, showy and expensively located?). My uniformed impression is they are setting up a network of offices where they are needed. The offices look neither frugal or wasteful, but I am willing to be corrected. About funding projects, marketing budgets and giving away to charities; it is really difficult to judge if they are spending their money effectively. Mistakes will be made with budgets this large in a such a small nascent industry. Moneygram might not work out like they expect, but it looks like a good investment. XPring initiatives will go wrong but some will succeed (we hope, the returns on success stories could be huge). Coil looks like an intelligent stab at being first into the cross border streaming of micropayments; if it works it could be bigger than XRapid and banks. Investing in providing payment facilities for gaming platforms looks like a very good idea because these games are used by young people who often lead in adoption of new trends. Setting up offices strategically in financial centres looks a good move. Ramping up employees in India and S America looks like a response to demand. You mention BTC. To me this is where your criticism seems to fall down. BTC wastes nearly every cent of the new investment money that comes into their community on paying lavish electricity bills for miners, and what remains goes into the pockets of miners as profits to be spent on lavish live-styles (mostly in China). One of the big attractions about XRP is that the new money coming in is spent on growing the XRPecosystem. What's not to like?
  10. Well what is research if it is not conjecture and what is hope if it is not optimism? Perhaps you suggest looking at patterns in charts and using bots with algorithms? This word hopium should be banned because it implies optimism is an addictive drug like opium. Hope is healthy, despair is unhealthy
  11. I think the lead in positioning of MMs so that corridors can be opened is the big difference between XRP and every other crypto. It is why Moneygram is so important. A rival has to test, regulate and position MMs to compete. This process costs billions and amongst blockchain companies only Ripple have that sort of money to spend on this sort of project.
  12. I think the point has been made that you will likely slip into paying for content. For instance television was free, watching a film on TV was free, buying a video in a supermarket was expensive, renting a video on-line was less expensive, watching the film you want to watch when you want to watch becomes your habit without you even noticing. Things blur into each other. The TV people weaned people into paying by selling sports content and then people that were used to paying something for TV on-line began to buy the "film" channel as well. The other side of the coin also exists. I never buy news paper articles on line, because the Guardian and other on-line content is always available for free. But streamed payments will be super huge. Car insurance could be streamed so that you pay per journey according to how far you go, and where you drive. Discounts could be given if the car insurance is permitted to introduce you to local hotels and find you the cheapest petrol in the area. The possibilities for streamed payments are limitless.
  13. I agree with everything your write, as well as your caveat. Probably XRP needs is a small lift in price for those fair weather friends to return in their flocks....but I agree the constant pessimism does present a drag and danger if it goes on for many more months.
  14. My view is the opposite. The more that has happened in the cross border payments space the more obvious it seems to me that nothing has come close to the XRP Digital Bridging Asset concept. FB coin is a stable coin designed like a camel in a walled garden, not a flexible bridging asset designed to meet all requirements. Generally the emergence of more stable coins provide more reason, not less, for XRP to exist. XRP, and the ILP, becomes more and more unique and relevant with every new development in its space...and XRP is building links with all the right partners as well as working to the requirements of regulators. Like many I was surprised and disappointed that XRP was left out of the post Christmas bull run. I can offer no explanation other than that XRP has not caught the imagination of the crypto investment community. To me that is more of a reflection on their collective intellect than anything to do with XRP relevance as the cross border digital asset of the future.
  15. I am not so different, a little less invested and 45% down, but I do not share your pessimism. Everyone must make their own decisions. I think the investment community in which Ripple is trying to grow is perverse, but the product Ripple is taking to market is fantastic. I think XRP will pull through, even if it has to endure hard times ahead.
  16. I don't think you can sensibly compare a bridging digital asset with a stable coin tied to a basket of fiat. FB coin is just a white paper that has gone through no hoops and serves a different purpose/market to XRP.
  17. I would have thought in the case of a further crash there would be very substantial support at .16. I would also expect Kitao and others to get involved in supporting XRP if it went into free fall. They have a lot invested in this project and at very low prices they would be able to soak up a lot of the selling pressure. The third factor is that XRP is the wild card currency that everyone, even BTC sceptics, will buy if it makes a sudden substantial move upwards. By this I mean a bear market can turn into a raging bull very quickly. If XRP really was going down the tubes like Brandt suggests it could easily attract attention from big players like Google and paypal as a entry point into blockchain. Brandt is of course someone who makes his money though looking at charts. I wonder if he is as good at looking at the underlying strength of businesses.
  18. This subject scares me stiff. Like Mistatree I freeze and fail to engage properly with wallets. I bought everything on etoro, which is simple and at last with the help of a computer engineer I transferred some XRP to a nano. This is the limit of my expertise. To make a payment or use XRP I would need someone to hold my hand. Saying that test net looks like a really useful concept. I would like to use it with someone by my side who has confidence and could guide me through the jargon etc. In such circumstances I think this site would really help me gain confidence to use my wallet(s). Great blog post, as always.
  19. Yes, I call 1.2% taken out of circulation is a big hit! It demonstrates that leakage/loss by users of XRP (which will be constantly happening as people lose their wallet keys etc etc) will be something that significantly reduces XRP supply.
  20. Does that mean the number of XRP in circulation has gone down by 500 million? That's quite a hit on available XRP for future utility.
  21. My only concern about the price going down is that it reduces liquidity for XRapid corridors that are set up and this will delay development of the cross border payments market Question - how does this sort of loss affect a market maker who own 10 million XRP. Their stock just took a huge dive! Of course they can replenish at the same lower price. I have always worried we might visit .16 which I believe is bedrock. It is horrible to see those big red figures, but it is the price of holding and sitting things out. I buy every month and would buy more at .16.
  22. Sounds like Mt Gox all over again? Its good that the Chinese authorities are cooperating in closing it down. In the end these BTC need to be sold and the money returned to the people who were scammed?
  23. Maybe, but the fundamentals behind Ripples Business plan remain unchanged and very promising. XRapid, Moneygram and Coil are on the starting blocks. I have no idea when it will turn, nobody has, and if what you predict happens I will go on buying following it down until it turns. I do not think TA really means much and as you say the market sucks. That is the environment in which we are investing and we should invest with our eyes wide open.
  24. WOW, just arrived home and and saw the price. Bought another 1k XRP, (.23 would have been nicer, maybe tomorrow). Everything in the red . ...and I was thinking my accumulating days were coming to an end!
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