Jump to content

jag216

Bronze Member
  • Content Count

    756
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  1. jag216

    Recession, Basel III and Xrp

    No offense taken btw, putting out a botched deployment from a contractor at work, but I do have some ideas to flesh out so I'll save my place in line here for now.
  2. jag216

    Recession, Basel III and Xrp

    There will certainly be revolution in many developing countries - hopefully more industrial than political.
  3. jag216

    Recession, Basel III and Xrp

    Yeah, the way I see it there will be an unwinding of nostro/vostro in order to bolster domestic reserves - which is made possible through utilization of XRP held by external facilities (market makers) - but I do think that as XRP slowly increases in value banks will see the potential attraction of managing their own internal XRP reserves - particularly if the liquidity and technology prove themselves to be as resilient as claimed. I think there will a be a period of unwinding nostro/vostro followed by a realization that market makers are making a significant profit as XRP increases in value and at some point banks and regulator may determine guidelines for acceptable exposure to XRP in their old held assets. Not a fast process at all, but if we are strategically approaching the debt-backed fiat unwinding and hoping to do so on a global scale and in a way that hopes to avoid catastrophic system failure I see this as a pathway forward through the malaise. It is always important to remember that in a debt-backed currency economy the size our of debt is a lagging indicator of a populations' desire to spend. If there is no national debt, there is no money in this system - which is one of many reasons why currencies backed by hard assets provide security when the collapse of debt contracts magically reduces money supply. It is important to understand that debt forgiveness and bankruptcy reduce the money supply when you have a debt-based currency. It is a strange paradox, but when there are no debts left to pay in the US, there is no more money to spend. Once you understand this concept, you can see why the foreclosure and bankruptcy connected to the failure of housing markets all over the world resulted in the cascading effects of dried up credit and liquidity. This perverse logic fed the practice of the US Treasury issuing bonds at auctions no one was attending and then buying those bonds back and using the funds to prop up failing mortgage backed securities as part of the quantitative easing program. They needed to inject money into circulation to allow banks to generate enough good quality promises to pay, and then they could hike interest rates back up to claw back that capital influx before the capital reentered the markets and caused high inflation. I am somewhat inspired by action being taken by banks around the world to unwind this system a bit and re-calibrate the value of money to be based on something that is not tied to a promise to pay - which seems to always be fraught with bad actors and perverse incentives on both sides of the desk. Debt on its own is not a universally bad thing - but basing a currency's value solely on the redeemable value of debt contracts is a pretty bad idea. I hope the world can pull off its revaluation/reset without tremendous amounts of suffering.
  4. I was giving more thought to the global market downturns that we are seeing at this stage of the market cycle. As the amplitude of the waves increases, we may see increased XRP usage. I wouldn't rely too heavily on the current lockstep behavior with Bitcoin. Basel III accords put a lot of recommendations in place to prevent leverage problems and reduce syatemic risk by putting more weight on tier 1 capital and reducing tier 2 and tier 3 weight, further expanding the definitions of both of those tiers. Essentially calculations for manageable leverage extension need to be primarily based on unencumbered, uncomplicated cash reserves. Nostro accounts are not tier 1. The impact of this is that in the early stages of a credit crunch, we will likely see a repatriation of nostro reserves to allow for more lending. I do believe in an extreme crunch the winners and losers will be made based on exposure to xrp liquidity through xRapid or corda settler. I don't expect a price spike at this time, because these banks wanting to extend credit simply use xrp to maintain cross-border services as they claw bank funds from nostros. However, volume should spike considerably, and in tandem with announcements of tier 2-3 banks being distressed who are not on the system. This is the pattern on my radar. In some countries, this could effect fiat stability if the central bank discovers that there isn't enough leverage to provide cash to the population and their economy if heavily reliant on cross-border commerce. You may start seeing a flight to crypto, but not likely. However my guess is that nation's in neighboring countries that are more crypto saavy will see what is happening in nearby countries and may start to hedge against their own country's inflation. If banks see a slow creep of crypto funding as a store of value, they may start accumulating to lock down their transfer costs, and this could accelerate depending in the length of the cycle. I used to think it was going to take a Venezuela scenario to cause the spike, but now I think it will not be that extreme. It will start with credit drying up a bit, then xrp volume increases with reports of distress from mid level banks, then slow value rise from accumulators, then banks responding to control cost, and then depending on the length of the cycle we could see the establishment of a new baseline for the price that is considerable. As credit then unwinds, I do think we'll find the hook is sunk. Banks will be used to the feature set of XRP and will review its performance favorably during the prior downturn. It may be the first digital asset holding declared to be as good as tier 1 cash holdings in Basel IV. But I don't think it will take a systemic collapse for xrp to prove its value or to rise in price - I think it will take just one more global credit crunch scenario for RippleNet banks to realize their advantage and capitalize on it. At least, I hope so. Trying to be a bit more optimistic about the world stage - a slow unwinding of the current debt spring would be preferable to a deflationary spiral/hyperinflationary eruption scenario.
  5. jag216

    New Ripple XRP Channel

    I brought up the gaming question on the CSC forum because dealing with folks trying to trade fiat for ingame currency is a huge problem for game companies. I'd love to have a cross game currency platform where I could use skills to build a balance in a game I'm good at and use that to help me in a game I'm not good at yet - like a spendable xp coin. I realize game balance is already a fine art without dealing with the play 2 win problem but I also think the ability for franchises to build loyalty - even just giving credit in sequels for completing prior games, etc. - would be great for the market.
  6. This all seems to suggest that once institutional-level exchanges are open, ETFs get approved. Bakkt, Fidelity, etc. Coinbase already blew it by its leaked currency launches, mixed messages, etc. We have too many immature lawless actors controlling the space. Coinmarketcap manipulated the market by design or negligence. During the big run up most popular exchange operations conveniently stopped functioning properly for retail customers - and one of my big concerns with this has always been whether the exchanges themselves are building revenue internally while shutting out customers during times of ideal buying/selling. I've been frustrated over and over with how unreliable exchanges were during critical market moves. I had better luck getting a bag of crap from woot than I did getting in at a flash crash, or getting out during a moonshot. I don't believe exchanges will be honest if no one holds them accountable. Isn't that the point of having a decentralized exchange mechanism in the ripple ledger, or am I missing something? Why doesn't that feature get more attention? Whatever happened to DCEX?
  7. I'm looking for self-directed IRA custodians who support purchases of Grayscale Trust and Fund shares. Anyone out there doing this?
  8. Very worthwhile watch from Maximalist Keiser: The topic of rehypothecation has already poisoned the well of crypto supply in the case of bitcoin. The video discusses the world convergence on asset-backed currency transition and how an international alternative to SWIFT is coming. They bring up how the rehypothecation of digital assets is enabled by loaning, margins and settlement lag. Of course, in the same sentence they talk about how crypto purists will hard fork bitcoin and leave 'corpocoin' behind. And of course, as Max says, there already is a 'corpocoin' - it's called Ripple. *wry grins all around*. I'll take that as a compliment. My hope is that Grayscale and other XRP Trust manager will multisign private keys tied to accounts - that would be awesome!
  9. It's base64 - remove the first 1 character and it yields: Perceive that which cannot be seen with the eye. -M. Musashi
  10. I tried buying Cardano. Couldn't connect to network to even create a wallet. Support told me I needed to use the most recent release of the software (which I did). Not impressed. I did look into Kin after Modern Investor talked it up I think? If they do a hybrid with a stellar fork as promised that could be interesting. Kik building an ecosystem in the 13-24 age range is really interesting, particularly if they can keep it and develop something that goes beyond being a surrogate to tinder and 4chan cyber. CSC and DTR have both impressed me. DTR still above ICO price. CSC still rolling along - hope they get traction. Crypterium couldn't ride a donkey out of its own ass. I'm glad I didn't buy a ton of it.
  11. jag216

    New sbigroup presentation 29/11/2018

    I would not have expected their threats section to include so much news regarding the trade war with China and the US and the outcome of the midterm elections - but particularly interesting is the Bank of Japan and escape plan being on the same slide. I wonder of Crypto Eri might do a bit of fluff on how the trade wars between the US and China are connected to the Bank of Japan. Interesting slide on them developing a mobile securities trading product platform to engage young investors. 67 More moneytap integration with investing firms. 72 Lots of talk about AI and biomedical ventures in conjunction with their IoT and finance strategy. I like these guys, they are playing some 3D Go here.
  12. I like Marcus' use of the metaphor of companies being off the Richter scale in terms of disruption. I suppose that's a dark bit of SF humor.
  13. jag216

    Galgitron's Blog: Frankenmath

    I go over the cash-out question in my head, but that stopped as I realized that Ripple may very well be a blue chip in diapers, at which point I shifted my thinking towards my stake in XRP being a utility infrastructure investment. Once XRP gets beyond a certain price and I am not concerned about losing my initial investment the pressure to sell is limited to the circumstances of my personal life - not my concerns over price action. I do think about cashing out in order to buy back lower during these cleansing purges, but zooming out and reevaluating usually changes my mind.
  14. jag216

    Galgitron's Blog: Frankenmath

    Fear and greed establish the direction of market pressure. The price is irrelevant. The media is a terribly powerful tool, weaponized across the board to incite fear through injustice and the threat of losing it all, and inspire greed through jealousy and the promise of having it all. The chest beating and flag waving has defined market pressure from day one. The cryptomarket may have more robots, but there is still a very human emotional driver present in the market. You can find scared and greedy people at $5 or $.05 price points. 589 believers are Linus. Crypto market haters are Lucy. @Snoopy any thoughts?
×