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NMNR

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  1. I believe the SEC are meant to answer some very pivotal questions in about 8 hours time specific to the lawsuit...could be interesting later on.
  2. ODL isn't impacted by this particular issue?
  3. I specialise in market risk and methodology for BofA. I use var backtesting to influence my trading strategies.
  4. Quite simply, btc mining has a breakeven price. I would imagine it's now $7/8k something around there? Either way it's quite far off from where we are now even subject to rise in energy costs and other forms of funding requirements. Hash rate increases scarcity, sure. But majority of the bitcoin market in a "bull" cycle care very little about that. Its all about outright price appreciation for which the hash rate doesn't really have much significance.
  5. I'm more confident in my analysis which is tried and testing in the investment banking and risk analytics world rather than charts.
  6. Btc passing through 53 to 57k doesn't mean anything. I am convinced the cycle for bitcoin is well and truly over. I'm not saying it can't move higher, it sure can. But it isn't breaking a new ATH or anything like 100k. This doesn't make me bearish as I couldn't care about a financial position in btc.
  7. If you look at the distribution of returns and use ETH as a proxy for all Alts them around 22 December is when we should be in full swing.
  8. Where we are in the current cycle, the hash rate is irrelevant I would think.
  9. There's no harm in buying at this price level as I would expect btc recovery to 53k so there's a few K profit if you want some easy money. Then it's time to close that position. The window here is quite short imo. It isn't worth the risk.
  10. I don't think many here quite understand the importance of this move... This is the market data from Binance over the last 4 years (Dec '17 to today) so around 1,570 data points. The observation dates below are what we could the "tail moves" i.e. the market moves that would lie beyond the worst 1% and 99% of the historical distribution of returns. The market move on 4th DEC for BTCUSD is ~ -17% (btc price = $47k as of writing) Historically, if you take the average of the tail positive returns, you get +15%, if you apply that to current BTC price ($47K) you should expect BTC to top out around $53K before it capitulates. If you take the tail positive returns of December (between '19 till today) which is equivalent to a +22% move, you would expect BTC to top out at around $57K i.e. don't be surprised of a BTC recovery between $53k to $57k. If you want to leverage, i would go with these levels and then exit. In short, the historical moves on Bitcoin are telling you what price levels you should expect. None of them even provide concrete proof of anything like $100K+. date format = dd/mm/yyyy Tail negative returns Tail positive returns
  11. Not yet. I've put some aggressive orders in though, whether they get met or not who knows!
  12. Yes and with hindsight you can be right 100% of the time which is what you seem to prefer? Either way, you need to make calls on what you perceive to happen. I don't think I've ever seen where you expect the markets to go apart from when they've actually fallen. Anyway. Back to the topic. This should pretty much confirm Bitcoin is not going to hit the $100K+ mark. There is no super cycle, it's had a pretty amazing run already and it's high of hitting 70k or whatever it was is still pretty amazing. Putting money in Bitcoin for a long term hold at this stage is extremely risky and not worth the reward, at all.
  13. You need to stop calling people out. At least Eric has been brave enough to show up whether he is right or wrong.
  14. I'm pretty convinced now my scenario is going to happen. XRP will most certainly flip ETH. I'm annoyed my bonus doesn't come till end Feb when I expect most of the upside action to happen.
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