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  1. Pablo is obviously one of the top legal minds on these issues. Although I am an attorney as well, this isn't my area, and my knowledge about it and the applicable standards, admittedly little, is based on my following of this particular case. That being said, while the formal letter of the two SEC commissioners doesn't go to "the legal status of XRP," doesn't it go to the issue of whether there was fair notice of what constitutes a securities violation? The SEC commissioners state "there is a decided lack of clarity for market participants around the application of the securities laws to digital assets and their trading." That sounds a lot like how Ripple is framing its fair notice defense. And that's not some hired expert saying it, or someone in the field, it's current SEC commissioners, two out of five of them, saying this about the current ambiguity that still exists today for market participants. This will have an impact on the judge IMO. If this fair notice defense issue were to go to the jury, I just can't see how it would conclude that Ripple had fair notice (even if the letter isn't admissible - and I don't know about that either way). My early guess is that Ripple has around a 90% chance of winning on the fair notice defense (based on what I know). What is your best guess percentage?
    16 points
  2. I am not scared, eventhough everyone that has sold is trying as hard as they can to shake everyone else out as well. I am buying as much as I can at these prices. I personally expect a few months of boring upside consolidation and then a final rally at year’s end. Then I will take most of my profits, certainly not now. Crypto had seen mid cycle sell-offs in every cycle. In 2017 we had a mild one(also due to China FUD) and in 2013 it was a prolonged and that tough one. It always ended up in a final blow-off top at year’s end. Therefore I am as accumulating as much as possible, I belief it will pay off handsomely. Made this post for the people that are buying and still care about crypto, not interested to get into any more discussions or debates Good luck all!
    13 points
  3. So the judge seemed concerned overall about Ripple's eagerness to depose Hinman to find out about 3rd party conversations, in addition to the speech he gave. The Ripple team complained at the end that the SEC was stonewalling everything by invoking deliberative privilege. She granted the deposition noting that Ripple might cut off their nose to spite their face pursuing those 3rd party convos, in part I assume because she made clear there were other ways to gain knowledge of those besides deposing Hinman directly and didn't want him deposed 2x. It's clear though she thinks the case is exceptional and the Hinman speech is important. Then the Ripple defense raised the issue of meeting with ETH a week before his speech. She replied, "understood". very interesting.
    12 points
  4. Hope they are not doctors 😅
    12 points
  5. No, but I would have joined them in the early days. I'd like to think I've helped though. I've seen Greg Kidd use my postage stamp analogy with congress. I'm pretty sure the XRP Loans are being done using the methods I articulated in my How xPool write up. I'm also pretty sure I was the first to point out that XRP has Utility value, because @JoelKatz used to reference my explanation on the official forum where I was "FinSin" (a name that was a wink at where Ripple was going, I knew FinCEN would get involved, which they did a year or so later). One of their board members thanked me for pointing out that he overlooked the "Just in Time" advantages of avaliable liquidity... aka ODL I have a lot of respect for the Ripple team, they have impressed me almost continuously with their conceptualization of creating an IoV. I have learned a lot from them and this community. I believe that an IoV will be an improvement to humanity, so it's a worthwhile effort. I think most of the XRP hate/fud, is rooted in other crypto folks knowing in their gut that they are out matched by Ripple's tech & team. This market is still not fully developed. We need a thriving derivatives market for XRP. Otherwise there isn't a real way to do risk management. That's probably going to be the last thing to get developed. From there, the market will just have to grow organically. Honestly, I've been disappointed that they have never engaged me, but oh well.
    10 points
  6. Bitcoin continues with it's sideways movement in the $30k to $40k range - nothing new to report. On my chart it doesn't look like things will get interesting until the price breaks above the Down Trend Line, (currently at $49k). @Nat99 the price movement could play out a few ways. I think in this cycle we get a period where the price breaks to around $100k-$120k pulls back to around $80k or so then makes a larger move to around $400k. Who knows I'm not really sure how it gets there but $400k is still the target.
    10 points
  7. Nothing like a not for profit foundation trying to buy a for profit corporation. IDK seems a little shady. Or maybe Stellar is just like will do what ever ripple is doing, but six months to a year, but before that say we will not.
    9 points
  8. The Fair Notice defense is, first and foremost, designed to protect CL and BG ... not Ripple. Their cases will be tossed very soon. Zero way to prove scienter now. Then, it's a whittle-down game for Ripple Labs Inc. ... Which XRP sold at what place and at what time does the SEC consider to be an investment contract? A. Current XRP? ... Surely not! See Commissioner's letter, see validators, see use cases, see Craigslist, etc. Current XRP on the market obviously can't be security. B. Old XRP? ... as in 2012-2016. You mean when Ethereum held their ICO, yet was spared by Hinman's speech? (And this is the entry point to shows XRP's utility technically as SPAM prevention and as a bridge currency and/or FINCEN. Utility and Security don't go together ... nor does Currency and Security.) C. XRP sold in the US or overseas? .. Remember, SEC has no jurisdiction outside of the U.S. ... and also remember Ripple just got judicial approval to request info from a dozen plus exchanges outside of the U.S. ... which I suspect will demonstrate that Ripple's sales happened outside SEC jurisdiction. (Anecdotally, I can assure you there were relatively no XRP sales in the U.S. from '12 to '14.) Point is, the worst you'll end up with at this point is a declaration that XRP secondary markets are not securities ... and only those XRP own and SOLD BY RIPPLE IN THE U.S. could be considered as such ... and thus Ripple needs to report accordingly....and no fines due to the lack of fair notice. A big W.
    9 points
  9. You appear to have referred to the safe harbour proposal - but the question is about the effect of the SEC open letter in reference to the coinschedule settlement, where pearce and roisman state 'on the record' that there is no clarity provided by the SEC and leaves the question of which tokens are securities unanswered. This plays 100% into the hands of ripple's fair notice defense and I can't see how you would say what's quoted above. If it has no bearing at all on the case, then why did Ripple file it immediately as a brief to the judge in support of their dismissal of charges against Brad and Chris? Secondary question (to anyone) - this letter appear on the SEC website - could they have done this without the approval of Gensler?
    9 points
  10. thinlyspread

    NWO

    I don't. They had everything on a plate! I feel bad for young people trying to save and wanting to start a family, but they can't because real inflation is eating away at their standard of living and they're slowly drowning without holding any appreciating assets.
    9 points
  11. This new ODL patent is worthy of a thread all for itself. Too big to describe in a few words, and if it gets granted who will be in the same game as Ripple/XRP? to download a copy of the patent : https://uspto.report/patent/app/20210192501
    9 points
  12. Oh and make me one thing clear. I would turn bearish if BTC would lose 28k. But as long as we don’t and especially if 32k can hold from noe on, I genuinely see 0 reason to be bearish. I am not a permabull or simply suit my agenda, it’s simply because it is how the market technically looks to me. Sure I look for a bullish outlook, since I am long that is the logical thing to do. But if things would turn bearish on the medium-longer terms, i’d be saying it out loud too. In about 5-8 months, you’ll probably see me making bearish statements while the majority is euphorically bullish… I make plenty mistakes, especially on short TF’s. Those are very hard to predict to me. But medium-longer term I can proudly say I have been pretty spot on, and won’t let people whom have just sold the panic candles and want/need confirmation they did the right thing, cloud my judgement. Taking profits is never a bad thing to do and if people sold the panic red candles with a solid return, I applaud that. But then coming back here every other day and poking fun at the bulls at every subsequent red candle while touting they sold way before and make fun of bulls, that’s toxic behaviour to me. No matter how you spin it, that’s just confirmation bias playing out and trolling people whom are genuinely long and have the patience and resolve to sit through hard times. I call them out on that behaviour and yes I come across plenty arrogant in the process. But so be it, what comes around goes around.
    9 points
  13. One of the lawyers working for Ripple was working with Hinman at the time all this corruption(?) was going on. Hinman probably did clear his ETH speech with his teams at SEC, so probably Ripple know how to trap Hinman and other SEC officials in a net. I would guess SEC are wanting to settle and Ripple are wanting terms SEC feel they cannot give. The opportunity for a draw is slipping away. What worries me is that this case has so much momentum. It has developed its own life and if they do not settle soon both sides might find themselves locked into a trial. Deaton says it is the biggest SEC case since Howey in 1945, and if SEC have to back down too far it will look like they were trying to prevent a criminal/corruption investigation. Whilst Ripple can smell complete victory and do not want to give anything to SEC for a face saving settlement. From my perspective as a biased outsider it looks as if SEC only have one card, and that is that delay hurts Ripple's relationships with businesses, especially in the US. But this benefit is losing traction as Ripple finds it can continue to develop its business model outside the US, and that the publicity from the case is in fact beneficial. Up until now Ripple have suffered all the damage, settlement does not undo that damage, prolonging the case does not really increase that damage. Ripple have reasons to go for a full out vindication, and full disclosure of discovery documentation, and then perhaps counter sue and maybe even ask for the police to get involved with criminal persecutions against Hinman and Clayton and others. Settlement soon or settlement after discovery or settlement after a trial? I have no idea what to expect!
    9 points
  14. I don't mean for you to take this the wrong way and there is nothing wrong in thinking like this - but you are looking at Flare from a trader's perspective. And with that lens, you have probably made plans around availability of FLR at a certain point in time. No one owes anything to anyone here. None of us are investors and those who bought IOUs were fully been made aware that those IOUs are in no way representative of Flare. Flare releases when it releases. ETH2 taking *forever* is not an indictment of Ethereum Foundation. Things always get more complicated than anticipated. A limited attack in Iraq took two decades to get out of. There is nothing wrong with providing guidance on timelines and nothing wrong with missing them by a bit. Especially in an organization/network that doesn't even exist yet. If anyone has a right to complain or judge, it would be the actual investors of Flare, who would be privy to internal workings of the org, if they have invested with certain timelines in mind. It is not appropriate to attribute malice, IMO. And who are we to say whether 2+ years of development is "enough". And who are we to say whether their decision to use a canary network is useless just because there are several that were successful without ? That's like saying Apple clearly didn't need to take a risk with a touch interface when there were perfectly successful and highly profitable smartphone companies without that. I don't see how we are in a position to judge how someone else builds their project, especially one that's going to be made open source anyway. It's their network until it is launched. They get to decide when it is ready and how it is ready.
    8 points
  15. Commissioner Peirce's Safe Harbour proposal has been floating around for a very long time - over 2 years and counting - all she has done is reinforce the message with a public letter. She has been making repeated comments about the lack of clarity all the way back to 2017 so she has stayed on brand. Meanwhile, Gary Gensler has been called in by Elizabeth Warren to set out a roadmap for regulation in the space. Great! But don't expect real progress for a while (as in many months). Then we have the FATF guidance going live this year too. Things are slowly turning but not necessarily in crypto's favor. That's the reason why UNI forked out $40m to builld a lobbying group in Washington to push for better regulations. I provided input into the Commissioner's proposal as one of several crypto lawyers who was invited to comment so I have a detailed knowledge of the proposal. It won't apply to Ripple today and even if we could take a time machine back to 2013, Ripple would have failed the safe harbour requirements because it expects projects to be much more open about their business plan, tokenomics, lock-ups and decentralisation strategy. The general view amongst most folks in the space is that regulation by prosecution hasn't worked. But that's a long way from saying that prosecutions aren't warranted. The SEC felt that prosecuting Ripple was so. And with Gary Gensler comfortably settled into his new role, I see no change in that view from the top people at the SEC. I warned at the beginning of the year that Gensler would be unlikely to pull the rug under the case given what it would mean for SEC and the staff working this case. Commissioner Peirce's safe harbour doesn't change that at all. Lots of folks completely mis-read the political environment too. I guess it doesn't help having so few true lefties in this space but if you really understand what the Democrats (and other left-leaning parties) represent, their platform and ambitions, the idea that they would offer Brad and Chris a free pass here is beyond preposterous. Remember, the investigation started in 2019, while Republicans were in control of WH and Senate. So this case now has bipartisan support. It doesn't change my conclusions in the slightest because the open letter changes nothing about the legal status of XRP or have anything to do with the SEC case. It won't affect the judges in the slightest and if the case makes it to trial, the jury will be expected to ignore all public commentary.
    8 points
  16. Ok here's my take. First, I thought I was being ultra conservative with my September 14 launch date prediction. I was wrong about that. But I guess is if it really does launch by the end of September I'll be +/- 2/4 weeks 😉. I hadn't heard of canary networks before, but I think I understand the concept. Regular test networks use fake tokens; they have no value because you can get or make as many as you need to perform your tests. They're good for testing the functionality of your code: when you press button A, does it call process B, and return expected result C, etc. They provide a good environment for controlled testing. But testnets aren't great at simulating real world conditions - people do crazy things and will come up with all kinds of strange ways to use your software that you could have never imagined. A canary network seems to be a hybrid between the mainnet and testnet. Its main token has a limited supply, which means it will have some non-zero value. It can connect to other live networks rather than being sandboxed. This should draw in some real people who will use it in ways that are closer to how the mainnet will be used. Flare is focused on the ability to use Songbird for security testing, which makes sense since one of their core functions is porting data and value between networks. But it can certainly be used for all kinds of things. You know how your operating system or web browser will often give you the option to run the beta release containing the upcoming changes that aren't live yet. It looks like Flare will be using Songbird in that way as well - so if some new feature is coming, you'll be able to get a look at it there before it goes live. What will SGB be worth? I would assume less than a cent, but maybe one day it might be worth a penny. I guess that depends on how much developers need it for testing. If they need more than they initially received, they have to go out and buy it. And I just went and looked up Polkadot's Kusama and it's worth $150, so don't use me for predicting anything. I have no idea what KSM's supply or distribution is or how it will relate to SGB's price. But if you're interested in canary networks whether from a technological or financial perspective, the obvious thing to do is to take a look at Kusama and see what parallels you can draw to Songbird. How should you use Songbird? We all have had so many questions about how Flare will actually work. Songbird should finally give us a look at how to vote or mint F-assets, etc. Isn't Bifrost supposed to launch in a few days? I would get set up on a Bifrost wallet and play around with voting since that's no risk. Once you're done playing, you can set it and forget it - Songbird will have voting rewards and I'm guessing not many people will participate, so you should be able to get a decent amount of rewards. If you're testing F-assets, I would be very careful if you need to send real XRP. There are also no rewards for holding F-assets on Songbird, so my strategy would be just to do a little bit to test the process to make sure I know what I'm doing when Flare goes live. I think this is also a good place to test minting your own F-assets using your own SGB as collateral. For example you could put in $10 worth of SGB, mint $5 worth of FXRP and then see how that holds up over time. Better to get liquidated on the test network than in real life.
    8 points
  17. Oh FFS, have you read the title of this thread??? It's been going for over 2 years and it continues because some people here on XRP Chat have an interest in hearing Eric's and others thoughts on what the charts are telling them. You've given your opinions time and time again and yeah, we all get it - you think their opinions are totally wrong - great, that's your opinion and you are entitled to share it here, but being a smartarse about it is a dick move. I for one appreciate them taking the time and putting their ideas out there in a thread created to do just that, and hope they continue to do so.
    8 points
  18. No you're not. This was last night @ the corner store.
    8 points
  19. There is a previous thread (about 18 months ago) on XRPChat where Nicolas has answered odl Intro 6.00 SEC have caused people to stop to wait and see. Banks are still cautious about when to start using crypto. 7.35 Flash FX have been raising more capital. 9.50 Growing fast, yesterday flow was 10 average turnover 10.40 comparing speeds with what the big banks offer 11.45 ODL Autralia to UK and EU now working 15.55 New patent for delivery to individually owned crypto wallets - Eri asks if this new method is working 17.00 Nicolas describes difference between ODL version 1 and version 2 (simplified and deal with just one exchange) 19.00 Line of credit - integrated as part of version 2. 21.30 wrap up - look at different use case and utility of XRP
    8 points
  20. My main reason for believing they dont want to get rid of their XRP is a fundamental business model one, that is both unique to Ripple, and not unique to network businesses. Monetization of the flow through the network. In all network businesses, like Google monetizes the search through the graph of the internet. Fbook monetizes the flow of information through their social graph. Railroads monetize the flow through their rail networks. Telecom networks monetize the flow of data through their wire/wireless networks ... etc etc etc. So with Ripple, there is one difference from the rest. A difference that is unique to crypto networks... the scarcity of the digital asset, which is the denominator of the value, and it IS Value that is flowing through the network. This is different than say Google having a unfixed supple of searches, or fbook having a unfixed supply of ads, etc. For Ripple to sell off all their XRP, would be to shoot themselves in the foot. I say this because the LoC offering enables Ripple to monetize the flow of value through XRPL (collect interest income), & would additionally cripple their ability to compete aginst alternatives like SWIFT by incentivizing (reduce the cost) of value flowing through RippleNet. If they can loan XRP at rates that make the marginal cost of using the networks they have built lower than the competition, I think they will be bigger than Google. They have a "zero marginal cost" on XRP, so it's not crazy to think they can. If they sell it all off in short order, it will be one of the biggest strategic blunders in crypto, big mistake! So far I've only been impressed by their strategic understanding and moves. I could belabor the point, and have in the past. All I'll say is their focus on interoperability with ILP at first, seemed like "falling on their sword", but then I realized they want to play on a level playing field, because their tech & team is better, the RippleNet network is better positioned, and to the essence of this thread, their inventory of XRP is a huge weapon enabling them to reduce the marginal cost of value flowing through XRPL by loaning it to folks like FlashFX. This makes FlashFX's cost structure of using XRP a marginal one, so they can easily just upcharge their clients and make a low risk spread. I'd be shocked if they lay down that XRP inventory weapon (via selling out and moving on) when they are still in the opening bouts of this new crypto industry. We dont even have regulatory clarity yet.
    8 points
  21. Bitcoin's price saw a modest bump over the weekend which is basically erased now. The volume was very low over the weekend however and nothing that really happens on a low volume days is of any consequence. For that matter the price action happening in the $30k - $40k range is not really that important either- you can trade the market as there will probably be 20%+- swings occurring within this range but IMO it is really just a base setting the price up for it's next move. I'm kinda bored until the price breaks out of this range.
    8 points
  22. https://www.dropbox.com/s/txtnkn43c8jhj5x/Ripple Opposition to Motion to Quash Hinman Deposition.pdf?dl=0
    8 points
  23. Then act accordingly let’s leave it at this. I genuinely wish you and xrpdude the best of luck, but please stop condescending bullish narratives, just because they don’t fit your ‘I have sold’ agenda. I certainly respect bearish outlooks, if they make sense other than fearmongering. So far, i’m not impressed. Good luck to us both, we’re both crypto investors after all
    8 points
  24. What’s that subreddit ? r/LeopardAteMyFace ? 😆😆 Putz. I don’t like being petty, but boy does it feel good once in a while. I sincerely hope they get to a positive outcome, because I think this enforcement action is misguided. But damn, the avalanche of nonstop FUD against XRPL and Ripple from the very beginning… Background: Pomp, via Morgan Creek, is an investor.
    7 points
  25. If you're at a party and Jed is there, leave when he does
    7 points
  26. From that comment I’m assuming that your expertise is not in software development. Not your fault, if you are not a dev you would perhaps not understand…. but no offence intended… your theory is bonkers. If they had something to roll out as a canary net then they also have the mainnet. They are identical, at least at the start. Instead of looking for a conspiracy perhaps it’s actually the case that it is exactly as they say… that they have decided to emulate what Polkadot have done and put a real world canary network out first to ensure a smooth mainnet release. This is a new wrinkle in the software lifecycle invented by Polkadot and it seems to have promise. Smart move to utilise this new idea. The recent hacks of other defi ecosystems might have nudged them over to that course of action as it’s even more secure than the white hat and penetration testing and software audit that they have already undertaken. In this matter it’s better to be late and safe, than on time and screwed.
    7 points
  27. The Crypto Ratings Council This is an interesting point of view I have not come across. In four years of following XRP I have never heard of the Crypto Rating Council which I understand is mentioned by H pierce in her recent unofficial unendorsed plans to create a sandbox for ICOs? I can see why you think it paints a new adverse slant on Ripples case. However as mentioned by as @solid102 these ratings do not come from an accredited agency and there is no way of knowing why XRP is given an unfavourable "4" and ETH a favourable "2"? (my guess is that the compilers have a biased BTC maxi point of view that PoW is highly decentralised). Given these observations I do not see how H Pierces unofficial, unendorsed ideas can be relevant to the case made by SEC SECs weakness Ripple's defence is built on two points: Fair Notice (we all know this case inside out) The Howey Test should not apply to the secondary market because in the Howey Test it was the investment contracts that were the securities not the sale of the oranges. SEC are telling the judge that even sale on XRP on the secondary market are securities. SEC have not yet clarified to the judge why (Hinman's) ETH oranges are not security contracts but the sale of XRP oranges are securities/investment contracts? What everyone can understand is that Hinman said that ETH "oranges" are not securities, and this letter was paraded on the SEC website and by Jay Clayton in his communications with Congress. Even today, if you go on to the SEC website, you will Hinman's "clarity speech" with the famous "we". At public meetings over many years Clayton was specifically asked to clarify whether "XRP oranges" are securities. He refused to give any clarity. (by any straight reading of Howey they are not) But Hinman gave common sense clarity for ETH oranges. No one is arguing against SEC's notion that ICOs are a shifty way for dubious companies to raise venture capital without complying with security laws. This space need regulating and it is SEC's job to define the rules. The only clarity we have got so far is that ETH's clarity was gained by the ETH foundation indirectly putting 1.5 million per year (5 x his salary) into Hinman's (a senior SECs executive's) pocket. Why SEC cannot win this case I am not a lawyer and cannot predict what the judge will rule, but I can tell you one thing with certainty; Everyone has the impression that Clayton and Hinman were the corrupt placemen of ETH and BTC community who were paid indirectly to aid ETH,BTC and the Chinese against a bona fide American company trying to build innovation into financial system. As a result of this corruption the US is out of phase with almost every other financial regulatory body in the world (particularly the UK, EU, Singapore and Japan) The law is not almighty. When the law conflicts with what everyday people see as fair or practical they are ignored and are run over by events. If SEC were to win it would be as if in 1900 the highway authorities passed a law that motor cars had to be pulled by horses. I think Gensler understands that SEC/Congress have to provide clarity like has been done in every other advanced country, and that this case has to be put into a side track and forgotten.
    7 points
  28. Pablo, thank you for your posts. I know that everyone looks forward to reading them, including me. I would like to respectfully make a few responses to your recent post. On the above quote, yes, the letter references the confusion in the marketplace regarding digital assets as it exists today. But I think the inference here is that it's been confusing for market participants since the beginning; it's not like these commissioners IMO are suggesting that it was clear and unambiguous before, and now, today, it's confusing. As attorneys, we plead in the alternative. The primary defenses are: (1) xrp is not a security, but (2) even if it is defendants are not liable because no fair notice by the SEC was provided. IMO there is no assumption at all that defendants are conceding that they breached the Securities Act by asserting their fair notice defense. I think your point is that the only way we get to the fair notice defense is if the court first concludes that the xrp sales by Ripple violated the Securities Act. However, one thing I am unsure about is whether it is possible for Ripple to raise the fair notice defense first with the court before the court addresses whether the xrp sales violated securities laws. Something to the effect of "the court does not need to address whether the xrp sales violated the securities act because clearly there was no fair notice." I don't know; it could very well be that it cannot be argued that way. IMO, the fair notice defense is stronger than the defense relating to whether defendant's xrp sales violated the Securities Act. I agree with this to some extent. The reason that this case (and others digital asset cases relating to fair notice) is distinguishable from your analogy about corporate malfeasance, however, is because there was no clear guidance about what does and does not violate securities laws as it relates to sales of digital assets. My recollection is that in the Upton case, that Ripple relies upon (which I skimmed a while ago), the court determined that Upton had not received fair notice of a securities violation because the SEC had known about the conduct violating the Securities Act (taking place at numerous companies), but didn't do anything about it until after they issued guidance about it. Upton was not liable because all the transactions in question were pre-guidance transactions. IMO, I think it would actually help a lot (especially those in the xrp community) because it would mean that all xrps trading in the secondary market are not securities. (Also, just because prior sales - such as in 2013-2014 - may have been investment contracts, future sales may not be because of the ubiquity and utility that now exists. That was the basis for Hinman saying that early ether sales (ICO) may have violated the Securities Act, but subsequent sales did not (from what I recall)). But even if future sales by Ripple are later deemed to be securities transactions, they would have to be registered. They would not be prohibited - Ripple would register and sell to accredited investors who would have to hold it for a period of time. A win on fair notice would allow xrp to be re-listed by exchanges, and banks and FIs would be free to use it without fear that those xrps are securities. That has probably been one of the fears regarding xrp which has prevented its greater adoption for use as a bridge currency or otherwise. I think (and hope) that would cause the price of xrp to rise dramatically. That would help a lot of people on this site. ))
    7 points
  29. Good posts from everyone, pinging the balls back and forth between our hopes and anxieties around XRP. Whether it's Garlinghouse or Larsen or the board of directors in general, Ripple still seems to me to be a couple of steps ahead of everyone else. They were 100% correct that cross border payments was the best space to tackle first. Unless I'm told otherwise, I think ODL (even at current low volumes) is the best case for payments utility put forward by anyone in the space. Or maybe I should say it is the best example of something being used. Plenty of others have put out beautiful white papers. Now with the recent news that Ripple and Quant are cooperating on the Digital Pound project, it's clear that Ripple is open to leveraging the best in market technologies that can take ILP, XRPL, XRP even further towards replacing or at least taking a huge chunk from SWIFT's market. It's going to be rocky, but I believe, as others have written, that this is all heading towards a new Digital Bretton Woods agreement to reorganize global finance. Liquidity is going to be at the top of every discussion surrounding this. And I think Ripple has known all along that liquidity pools would be their ace in the pocket so to speak. At the level Ripple is at, none of this is arbitrary. This is a chess match of the highest stakes possible. Wars are typically (always?) down to control of money, and it's going to take extreme delicacy to transition from the dollar hegemony that has lead to a lot of pent up hostilities between the far east and the west.
    7 points
  30. We're fed limited information, true, if we focus on mainstream media. Had I based my investment strategies on what MSM says, I would have bought at high peaks and sold at deep corrections. I would have lost a lot of money. Another thing I think we shouldn't forget is the fact that the stock market and the economy are not the same. While some aspects may be interrelated on some level, they do not necessarily move in tandem, nor do they always indicate the health of one another. I'm convinced this also applies to the crypto market. I believe it is highly manipulated, which may change when we've got regulatory clarity. There's so much going on behind the scenes, yet prices seem to fail to reflect that. Conversely, when a particular cryptoasset's price reaches a new ATH, it doesn't mean companies have integrated the tech and folks are actively using it. In 2017 the biggest winner* was XRP when it rose an astonishing 36,000%. Bitcoin’s value grew by more than 1,000%, but it wasn’t enough to even place it among the 10 best-performing cryptoassets of that year. Am I hopeful Ripple will be able to deliver? I say it has been delivering already, but I have to dig in order to see it. In an interview**, James Wallis (VP RippleX, Central Bank Engagements and CBDCs at Ripple) called ODL (using XRP as a bridge asset to avoid the need for trillions of prefunding) a game changer and an incredible innovation. In Asia, Ripple has had new deals signed and it generated 1,700% growth in transactions, which is huge. Wallis said he doesn't want to blow the trumpet too much but "the evidence supports Ripple's the clear market leader." * https://qz.com/1169000/ripple-was-the-best-performing-cryptocurrency-of-2017-beating-bitcoin/ ** https://share.transistor.fm/s/0a0a8352
    7 points
  31. Hugo did a telegram AMA with a Korean entity which was translated into Korean and English. A lot of it was covering ground we've already covered many times but there were a few new bits of info (I'll summarise with screenshots of what he actually said: - Flare is going to release a blog post in the next 7 days related to distribution and the preparations for launch: -- Hugo answers a question about scaling Continued in a second post...
    7 points
  32. KarmaCoverage

    NWO

    I've been nervous about the markets for quite some time. IMHO they have been WAY overvalued since roughly 2018, or whenever the fed lowered rates during a robust economy 🤨. The only thing that makes any sense is that 25% of all the money (USD) that exists was printed in the last 2 years. The last administration did $2T, and this one did $1.9T, which means that assets like stocks and real estate should be nominally up by 25%... but that's not because the profits/rents went up. Bonds are at the end of a 50 year bull run, since the 70s, and some even have negative real returns. There is nowhere to run, maybe commodities but if there is a downturn in economic activity that's not great. I agree with you that the potential for fundamental efficiency improvements of Ripple/CBDCs and freeing up N/V capital will be a boost to the global economy. I'm concerned that Crypto my be the trigger for the downturn. My eyes are on Teather because they are holding Money Market assets, so that is a bridge for a crypto crash to spread to traditional asset markets. There was even a statement recently about Crypto posing a systemic threat to the economy. If Money Markets freeze like in '08, Ripple with their ODL product & XRP's value & low cost of capital could be the white knight. Idk what to tell people, and I feel bad for the Boomers, because the industry advises them to hold Fixed Income assets, which pay no interest, and rates can only go up, which will hurt a bond portfolio's value right when they are entering retirement. Maybe the best place to hide is positive cash flow real estate, using some of this free (adjusted for inflation) mortgage money. Just don't get over leveraged and make sure it's positive cash flow with good tenant quality. Something is going to happen. I think your timeframe is reasonable, give or take 6 months. This talk of raising capital gains rates could also be a trigger, that would instantly reduce the value of the equity, bond, & real estate markets. Crypto also.
    7 points
  33. Most of my friends are well off and on the threshold of old age. They equate "crypto" with "bitcoin" with "scam and money laundering". To date I know none of them as having dipped their toes into "crypto", although a few have children who have begun to educate their parents about it. Institutions are just beginning to add some crypto to their portfolios, they are almost as ignorant as my friends and most of their money is going into brand names like Bitcoin and Ethereum that will quite likely flounder against competition from generation 3/4 crypto which will eventually be used in the new financial industries that will used digital money creatively to grow very fast. I guess a higher proportion young people are catching on, but even in this group investing in crypto it is still quite an exotic interest. Crypto is also expanding from rich first world counties like the EU, Japan and Korea, EU and Arab states into third world markets like India, Africa and Central America. Another revolution is happening. People are dropping using stock brokers and instead joining trading platforms like etoro where they can borrow money on their credit/debit card and PayPal accounts to buy shares, commodities and crypto. They quickly catch on that Crypto gives the highest returns Crypto investment is all very speculative because the level of adoption is still almost zero. However the number of newbies entering the market will go on rising exponentially as news gets into the media that crypto and digital tokens are being adopted as more efficient financial instruments than the old analogue technologies they are pushing out. The size of the pie will go on growing as new groups of investors catch on and join us to cash in on the expansion of crypto tech. It is inevitable that the investment impulses go on getting bigger as more private and institutional money joins the party. We have all been newbies and we have all made the same mistakes; starting out by buying the big brand names like BTC; buying high and being scared and flushed out to sell low; following green candles; believing and investing in the wild speculative claims made by you tubers. Nearly all of us have lost money when we first entered the market, and most of us have learnt from our mistakes. Basically the whales make the most money because they manipulate the markets, the old timers make huge profits because they research their investments, buy low and are not so easily fooled by the bull and bear traps, and newbies lose money because they get caught out by the hype. I think anyone who is intelligent, researches the market and keeps themselves in touch with the markets will make very big profits in crypto. We are at the early adoption phase of the biggest market disruption in history of civilisation. We might not do as well as the guys whole mined hundreds of BTC in 2010, but we will get a big share of the profits and lot of us will become very rich. I disagree with those who fret that RIpple/XRP are losing their lead. I think the opposite is happening. I agree there are some very good new companies with excellent tokens to choose from, but this is good because the size of the pie is growing in many directions and the markets of the future will need need many tokens for many specialist use cases.
    7 points
  34. Thank you by the way! I've personally lamented to myself, and miss the early days when there was more discussion, and disagreement, and back & forth conversation around how this stuff can, or is being done, or doable. That's how I learn, and I enjoy learning. I have learned a ton from this community, maybe even more than I learned in college. I see another spate of innovation occurring, so maybe with new things to figure out and discuss some of the engaging conversations can come back 🤞
    7 points
  35. Bingo! This method creates systemic leverage across time "velocity of money" (albeit short segments of time) and thus improves the effectiveness of the entire IoV solution. This is key functionality for the ultimate solution, and why all this BS talk about "burning the escrow" is exactly BS. The fundamental value creation of the methods I outlined in that How xPool write up is the "time leverage" that velocity can create. In addition to leverage & velocity, it's also elasticity.
    7 points
  36. Now beginning the parabolic S2F phase, still expect some volatility but we will see if the model holds...
    7 points
  37. The consensus amongst lawyers seems to be that Hinman will be forced to testify. This news that Hinman then had a meeting a few days later with ETH seems to corroborate the impression that Hinman was biased and working very closely with ETH management, and on top of that he was being paid millions (much more than his salary from SEC) by a firm that had large financial interests in ETH. The whole thing smells of conflict of interest and corruption. I wonder if this evidence is enough for Ripple to counter sue SEC on grounds that their biased behaviour was damaging to XRP (that statement by Vitalik Buterin that he was pleased that SEC were taking XRP (A sXXtcoin) to court adds to the impression that ETH have pushing SEC to suppress XRP). No doubt a settlement would include clauses that Ripple will not raise this issue in future.
    7 points
  38. Hi. I think we’ve bottomed looking at the retest of 50-70 cents. We are now around support again. This is a very normal move inside crypto - the most volatile asset class in the world - and confirms support in the 50-70 cents range. It looks ugly, but technically, it’s actually a pretty normal sight. Full fib extension from bearmarket would bring XRP to about 9-12 USD this run. If we would pull a doge, it could become 50+. But I personally wouldnt risk to wait so long. If you want to play it safe, if the market does resume bullish (which I and many respected analysts expect) then setting most of your sales between the 2.618 - 4.236 is f last swing low would make a good 500-1000% return within 5 months or so.
    7 points
  39. @Xrpdude Maintaining optimism is part of not being knocked out from Hodling and is a legitimate part of hodl strategy. Optimists are good at not missing opportunities. Whales inject despair and like to buy in fearful markets, even going as far as planting articles in news outlets like Forbes. (costs them as little as 1 -2k to buy off a Forbes hack). It seems very likely that a lot of this sort of activity has been going on recently. The news looked so bleak recently that I sold some stock to de-risk. Selling when we are vulnerable is an important part of trading too. That you sold everything was perhaps a good strategy, especially if you are able buy back in cheaper before the stock rises again. There is so many good reasons for buying XRP at these prices (very well articulated by Quincy recently) and holding through the turbulence and pessimism. Plikk is doing a good job showing that the TA has many good aspects and his work has been very useful to many of us holders who are buying the tech rather than the speculative trends. I do not see why people on this forum have to slang each other off?
    7 points
  40. I sold 30% of my ADA between 1.9-2.35 USD. Sold 15% of my VET around 18.5 cents. Bought me a nice car and made me able to diversify into other asset classes. The remainder has been re-invested last couple of weeks in worse performing alts, which are doing quite well for me right now. I am fully aware I will never sell the exact top or buy the exact bottom, but that is not necessary. My strategy has allowed me to accumulate during downturns and sell during euphoria. I am quite happy how it ‘s working out. We did go lower than I expected, but technically the bullcycle isn’t broken. Patience and suppressing of emotions is key to me. I simply won’t sell during big red candles, fear takes over then. I simply wait till my targets either hit, or that we’ve reached the end of the cycle in my eyes. No sooner no later. AlL in between is just noise.
    7 points
  41. It’s not too late to get back in This market is trending upwards, not downwards. As long as ~32k holds, we have formed a nice bottoming structure. RSI shows clear bullish divergences. You got shaken out by a big old bear trap IMO. Lack of understanding these complex market mechanics causes many people to fall for the same mistakes. A 50% drop is just an arbitrary number and doesn’t mean the bullcycle is over, look at the bigger picture. Coming months will tell the full story. I am fully long and filled my pockets the last couple of weeks. I can be wrong as can any of us, but I feel confident I made the right choice because the signs the market is giving me, it looks like the bottom is definitely in. If I am right, I can exit this market earlier when I think the real top is in. If 4y cycle theory holds true, that would be around nov-jan. Then would be the time to exit 75%+ of my positions, certainly not now. I’ll sell the coming big green candles, not these big red ones But sinde you are still here quite often, you must have a lot of doubts about your decision. It’s genuinely not too late to get in again, you can probably buy back in more than what you sold for so would be a win-win to you(if I am right ofc). Good luck anyhow, let this market treat all of us well.
    7 points
  42. Bitcoin is staying in the $30K-$40k range. MACD on the Daily chart has turned positive. Thanks to China's mining ban the bitcoin hashrate has plummeted along with the price. Sad for the Chinese - good for the rest of the world - Bitcoin is trading at a discount and mining has become easier - it won't last. We will definitely be getting some earth shattering candles in terms of size. In the 2017 bull run there were candles that were over 3x the previous (2013) cycle high of $1,200 so yeah if it plays out the same a $50k+ candle may happen. As more and more sophisticated buyers have come into the market I have become skeptical that Bitcoin will get the collapse in price that normally follows these runs, but until it plays out differently, I'm going to assume the trend will repeat.
    7 points
  43. @rumusama The gist is that institutional investors buy (or borrow) BTC and exchange them for shares of GBTC at NAV (1 share of GBTC represents an equal amount of BTC @ spot price). However, those shares of GBTC are 1) Not redeemable for actual BTC and 2) cannot be sold for 6 months from the day of purchase). When the 6 months is up, those shares are "unlocked" and the holder can then sell their GBTC on the open market at the "retail" price (NAV ÷ premium). Why this is so interesting is that up until late February of this year, GBTC traded at a significant premium to spot BTC prices (it reached + 20% premium last year). So the incentive for the institutional investors was to lend (or buy) "cheap btc", trade the btc for GBTC from Grayscale, wait 6 months and capture any BTC gains + the GBTC Premium. Quite a lucrative trade. And as long as the premium was in place, the incentive was to "rinse and repeat" the process - thus creating more buy pressure on spot BTC. Fast-forward to today and the GBTC "premium" is now negative to NAV. It's actually cheaper to buy shares of GBTC than an equivalent amount of spot BTC. So the theory goes that these institutional investors are dumping GBTC during these unlock periods, which impacts the markets two-fold: 1) Any institutional investor wanting BTC exposure can buy these discounted GBTC on the open market - thus reducing demand for spot BTC. 2) The institutions that were hoovering-up BTC for the GBTC trade mentioned above are no longer doing that since there is no guarantee the "premium" will return - also reducing institutional demand for spot btc. If this doesn't clear things up, just do a quick Google search - there are tons of articles that explain it much better than I did above.
    7 points
  44. I suspect ripple are too savvy for this. If they win outright against the SEC, then they set a precedent (no fair notice etc), that other cryptos can use against the SEC afterwards. Ripple want/need clarity for XRP, but despite them saying for years that a rising tide lifts all boats, when you get a chance like this to rise on your own - and let the other boat stay in the doldrums - then their best strategy may be to go for a settlement that leaves XRP in the clear, pay some fines, but not set any legal precedent that allows other cryptos to simply cite this case and "get out of jail free". Best plan (IMHO) = go for a nice settlement and leave all the other cryptos to fight their own battles afterwards.
    7 points
  45. It’s extremely hard to debug and test blockchains at scale. It’s hard enough to test centralised services at scale. Frankly I wouldn’t have even cared if there was no additional airdrop. Every blockchain needs to consider having a canary network. Even if they have a fully functioning MainNet. Think about how useful a Bitcoin canary would have been! So many dev proposals got shot down by miners. A canary network would have been a great way for devs to get public consensus. I think at some point in the future, all blockchains will have both mainnet and canary, and all canaries will connect to each other just as mainnets connect to each other. They’ll just operate as separate crypto ecosystems.
    6 points
  46. @Trentsteel funny. Price is sideways but hashrate is up 13% today the hashrate recovery is happening. https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html#3m Bitcoin bull run over??? Not even a concern. My only concern is whether or not I have enough bitcoin.
    6 points
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