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  1. 52 points

    Q1 2020 ODL report

    I wrote down much of what I've posted here before and tried to make a blog article out of it, but I'm not much good at html formatting and the graphs have come out terrible. I tried to put them into a coil article first, but that looked even worse and I gave up. (For curiosity, I wanted to see how well the web monetization stuff works using coil - no I don't need the $, but I'm curious to see if it works - and no - It doesn't for me at all anyway as I don't use twitter and the xrp community blog needs it). Anyway, here are my findings. https://xrpcommunity.blog/2020-q1-unofficial-xrp-odl-analysis/ I Opened up a new topic, so that Q&A could go here, but if this belongs in "press" or one of the other self promoting blog sections, mods please feel free to move it. TL;DR = quite a lot of ODL traffic. Things looking good for the future.
  2. 20 points
    It’s been a long time coming, but I think we are on the cusp of Polysign revealing what they've been up to for the past three years. We got confirmation December of last year that Polysign was in early Beta and would be going live in 2020. Also, it looks like there are design changes in order with respects to the webpage. Most of us know Polysign to be a digital asset custodial service/infrastructure platform as David’s answer to a question he fielded from a student at the University of Texas indicates. Going back a few years, we had our first indication, at the end of 2017, that Ripple would be taking the much-needed steps to begin building the necessary “market infrastructure” (i.e. custody and financial hedging instruments) needed to entice more institutional participation. According to Ripple this “market infrastructure” is needed to grow/stabilize the crypto markets overall but more importantly, to help with XRP. Miguel Vias, Head of XRP Markets commented in the last paragraph of Ripple’s Q4 XRP Markets Report for 2017: “While customers can use XRP for on-demand liquidity through xRapid, we want to build the necessary markets infrastructure for eventual direct usage of XRP by financial institutions. In Q1, we’ll begin work towards the launch of institutional hedging instruments and custody solutions. Both of these market components are important to institutional adoption and thus are important components of our 2018 roadmap.” On a Credit Suisse panel discussion (03:20 – 05:07), Miguel Vias alluded to the fact that you can’t build a vibrant crypto ecosystem with institutional players (i.e. hedge funds & investment banks) without first solving for custody or the safeguarding of these digital/crypto assets. Once you do this, you allow for the development of prime brokerage firms, lending, and hedging instruments (i.e. Derivatives, Options, Futures, ETFs, etc). Just recently, I happen to stumble upon a couple of interesting Tweets from @Arturo_P_A, Tweet One from February and Tweet Two from yesterday. In the first, @Arturo_P_A offers his opinions regarding the synergistic relationship he believes will develop between Ripple and Polysign. In particular, around on-boarding ODL-based exchanges, conflict-of-interest around XRP custody for these ODL exchanges and Ripple, and new use cases. What really piqued my interest is what @Arturo_P_A reveals in the second Tweet. It looks as if we have confirmation of one of Polysign’s first customers or maybe a subsidiary of Polysign, Standard Custody & Trust Company. It appears that Polysign has submitted a request for a custodial charter license in New York that was still pending as of February 6th 2020. Assuming that Standard Custody will, in some way, shape, form, or fashion, have some affiliation with Ripple it made me think about a couple of @KarmaCoverage Medium posts: What could xPool be? An attempted guess How xPool may work? An attempted guess It seems to me that Ripple now have the necessary foundational infrastructure in place to get escape velocity needed to truly execute their IoV vision: RippleNet - for the transference of value Interledger Protocol - for seamless connectivity and interoperability between di-separate traditional financial/blockchain-based systems/platforms Codius – for agnostic smart contract development for DeFi products Polysign – digital asset custody.
  3. 19 points
  4. 18 points

    Dev Null Prod Updates

    Greetings everyone! It's been a while since we posted here and gave an update of what we have been working on. Launched 2 years ago, Dev Null Productions is a fintech startup focused on XRP Blockchain data and intelligence services. We are the leading provider of XRP analytics and one of the core contributors to the rippled software outside of ripple labs. All that being said, lets jump right on into it! Our flagship intelligence product https://xrp1ntel.com has received many updates in recent months Data is more visible and easily consumable. Various sections have been overhauled to highlight meaningful content and metrics Ledger Intelligence allows you to dive into specific ledger details in a more granular fashion, providing Transactions by Result and Modified Accounts in addition to Transactions By Type. See the following for example: https://xrp1ntel.com/ledger/54636144 Fraudulent accounts are now highlighted by advisory level, Red is a well known scammer, Orange indicates a high probability of illicit activity, and Yellow means fradulent patterns have been detected. See the following three accounts for example: https://xrp1ntel.com/account/rBynoTsSt5nzb7WXDMZRC94o2B1pwTAWdH https://xrp1ntel.com/account/rD1rcFdpDuc6GCEr5pMqrXTWHe8NjWxjWz https://xrp1ntel.com/account/rpdTp8wy7G13GgsXZkYsehBTddrpemNLSP A tags portal has been added allowing you to view all the tags you created and add new ones from one central location. Additionally you can view and the built-in tags here: https://xrp1ntel.com/tags New charts recently added to reports include Fees Burnt and Transactions By Type (in addition to the existing ones Ledgers Closed, Total Transactions, Accounts Created) https://xrp1ntel.com/reports/day/fees The Rippled Source Code Guide has been ported over from our old analytics site and updated to the latest rippled release (1.5.0): https://xrp1ntel.com/source & much more Several new metrics have been added to our backed analytics engine and API including XRP delivered (different to 'sent' due to partial payments), Transactions By Result, and Ledger Close Time. Metrics can be access through xrp1ntel, our API, and/or following us on twitter where we regularly report them We've been submitting code and patches to the upstream rippled project driving the XRPL including the first #XRPCommunity amendment from outside ripple-labs and the consensus stream to monitor server consensus phase. Several new articles on updates and XRP data and analytics have been published to to the Dev Null Blog, see XRP in 2019 On IOUs XRP in 2020 - Quarter 1 XRBP, the Ruby interface to the XRPL, has received many updates in recent months, including support for the server_info rpc method, completed_ledgers extraction, and the SQLDB which rippled maintains. This is in addition to existing features such as fault-tolerant support for the rippled API, a complete nodestore parser, and peer-to-peer endpoint implementation The NYC/XRP meetup which we are helping organize has been regularly meeting and growing in numbers, see photos from the January meetup here Both the https://syracloud.net validator and our full-history node and going on several year of continuous operation, we are committed to helping run the XRPL and satisfying the infrastructure needs of the network And finally we have two brand-new major projects in development, the first is to be released in coming months. Stay tuned for details! We'd like to thank the entire #XRPCommunity for their support and dedication these last several years. We look forward to serving this awesome community for many more years to come!
  5. 18 points
    LINE Pay can be charged by connecting ManeyTap https://translate.google.co.jp/translate?hl=ja&sl=ja&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sbigroup.co.jp%2Fnews%2Fpr%2F2020%2F0331_11923.html SBI Kitao CEO aims to use XRP PayPay has exceeded 25 million users https://about.paypay.ne.jp/pr/20200220/01/ LINE PAY registered users in Japan exceeded 30 million https://linecorp.com/en/pr/news/en/2017/1748 LINE is largest messenger app in Japan. There are about 83 million users. Recently, Yahoo! Japan and LINE have announced Management integration. I think money tap is the default route to become an XRP wallet. In Japan, I think that XRP payments that can be used by ordinary people are coming soon. I wrote PAYPAY at the following URL before.
  6. 18 points

    Introducing XRP Ledger v1.5.0

    XRP Ledger core server, rippled, v1.5.0 has been released! You can read the full v1.5.0 Release Announcement on the XRPL Blog. Also, we've published a whole bunch of changes to the documentation on xrpl.org, including: Known Amendments has the new protocol amendments listed and statuses updated: https://xrpl.org/known-amendments.html New fields in the response to the submit method: https://xrpl.org/submit.html#response-format server_info method updated with more recent examples and updated time fields: https://xrpl.org/server_info.html New manifest method: https://xrpl.org/manifest.html New validator_info method: https://xrpl.org/validator_info.html New fields in tx method providing for more robust Not Found errors: https://xrpl.org/tx.html#not-found-response Updated account_channels method to reflect bug fixes: https://xrpl.org/account_channels.html Instructions on how to enable the new gRPC API on your rippled server: https://xrpl.org/configure-grpc.html New warnings in API responses if your server is, or is about to be, amendment blocked: https://xrpl.org/response-formatting.html#api-warnings Request Formatting updated with better formatting and new API Versioning information: https://xrpl.org/request-formatting.html Other very minor cleanup and corrections Let me know if you have any questions or comments, and enjoy the new version!
  7. 18 points

    ODL Nations

    In general I'd say the answer is 'some'. The ODL tracker on https://utility-scan.com/#/dashboard looks at payments on the xrp ledger and compares them to trades on exchanges using the same amount. I think I read on this forum quite recently that they don't include it until they see 15 transaction that match the pattern. When those transactions are more than 24 hours old, they become part of the history, but don't affect new tests or numbers. However, there may be individuals who are doing ODL like activity - or random buy/sell pairs that appear to be matching that will appear as ODL activity on utilityscan.com - my own suspicion is that the numbers seen the other day including JPY, KRW etc were probably not ODL activity, but probably random trades that just happened to match the pattern. My own ODL tracker uses a different approach. I scan payments on ledger and do a very basic statistical check to see if the 'corridor' looks like ODL payments. By this, I mean are there regular payments from one account to another, using the same destination tag - are both accounts known as exchange accounts. Do the payments have sensible transaction sizes, do they fit a certain weekday/weekend pattern. When I find a corridor that 'looks' ODL-like, I then apply a filter to remove spurious corridors. for example, I see a great many ODL-like corridors that are probably arbitrage-bots between exchanges, casinos and other wallets that are 'unknown' - these I remove and what's left are then filtered down to 'candidates' and from there I keep only the ones that ripple have announced as trading partners, (bitso, bitstamp, coins.ph etc). When I plot the amounts on those corridors, I get numbers that match the ones shown on utility-scan.com - except for the JPY/KRW stuff - because I do not consider a corridor open until the trading pattern has stayed active for at least two weeks (I can increase or decrease that window). If a corridor is active during a period of time, and then goes inactive. I drop it from my list. This means that if I plot historical charts going back in time, traffic on these 'corridors' does not appear. In general, the amounts on these corridors is quite small by today's standards. If you look for example at this plot of weekly totals you will see activity USD/PHP and USD/MXN at low levels during the early part of last year - this was almost certainly testing of systems before they went properly 'live' later in the year. However, we have no proof of that and it might have just been normal traffic. My analysis relies on the assumption that if you were ripple/moneygram/other, it is unikely that you would mix ODL traffic with other money flows - when creating a new wallet is so easy and having different account tags on the exchange can be arranged. From an accounting point of view, it makes things much more straightforward to use certain wallets for certain operations and then summing/plotting/accounting becomes simpler. I should upgrade my scripts to keep 'old' corridors so that if ones come online, but then go dark again, then the summed traffic on those corridors is included. However, I am mostly interested in the main corridors and if old ones did exist and go dark, I would only care if they were big ones with a lot of traffic like the ones we see in the plot above. When I started tracking this back in 2018, I was having a hard time identifying 'corridors' because volumes were small, but now the signal stands out very clearly. And I ran my number (as mentioned in another thread the other day) against the numbers in the ripple q4 report and they %changes between quarters and other details (I forget what now) do match very closely what I see, so I am confident that my plots are basically correct. If I include or miss a handful of transactions, I'm not bothered - I'm interested in the overall trend and the main total. (I also see accounts that appear to be involved in rebalancing these corridors, but I am not including them in these plots). EDIT: One thing I forgot to mention is that the very early USD/PHP traffic last year was comparably speaking larger than the actual traffic taking place now. so it was probably setting up accounts as lots of large transfers that were 'too big' took place, however when real traffic started flowing, I kept the 'corridor' in my list. So, yes - there is almost certainly some spurious data.
  8. 17 points
  9. 17 points
    Let's not forget about Xpring's Logos acquisition last year. David Schwartz mentioned (26:37 – 28:18) at the 2018 UNCHAIN Convention that they had the overall framework for Codius built but did not have the engineering resources to fully execute Codius within Ripple and would seek to do so via Xpring. David also alluded, via a Twitter comment, to the fact that the Logos team would be building DeFi products and applications on top of the XRPL and Codius. I've commented in previous posts that for the longest time, I use to think that it was a poor strategic business move for Ripple to have placed their smart contracts platform (Codius) on the back burner, yielding the space almost entirely to Ethereum and others to build upon. However, in retrospect, it was probably one of the best business decisions they could have made at the time. Stefan Thomas (Ripple's ex-CTO) said in Quora Q&A session: “I worked on Ripple’s smart contract system Codius back in 2013–2015. Back then, our conclusion was that a viable smart contracts ecosystem requires a standard for payments first. Contracts need to be reviewed to be trusted and that’s expensive if you need a new contract for each type of asset because every ledger has a different protocol/API. Thus, Interledger was born.” With that being said, we now have positive confirmation (09:16 mark) that there will be an Interledger Foundation based in California. I think this is very good news for ILP obtaining the non-profit status in California and soon the IRS 501(c)(3) Tax Exempt Status. Obtaining this non-profit status will help to development of a streamline legal framework to host registries for all of ILP’s reference and technical documentation/specs/tutorial etc. It goes to show you just how much time and energy went into Ripple's development/planning process at the company's inception in knowing what needed to be done 1st, 2nd, and 3rd to achieve their goal of becoming this facilitator of the Internet-of-Value (IoV). Ripple realized early on that while blockchain allowed for the creation of many varied platforms (i.e. XRPL, Bitcoin, Ethereum) these platforms were no better at communicating with each other than traditional legacy banking networks and payment channels hence the creation of the Interledger Protocol. IMHO, very few blockchain/fintech companies have built the ecosystem more than Ripple with regards to increasing interoperability among platforms in the crypto space. This is why the adoption of the Interledger Protocol (ILP) by some of major DLT consortiums (i.e. Hyperledger Quilt, R3, etc.) as the “payments router" of the Internet as well as the interoperability layer for is so transformational. ILP not only connects all blockchain ledgers together, but it simultaneously creates competition among the different blockchain platforms/cryptocurrencies so that each will have to stand on their own code/blockchain technology. This altruistic act underscores the principled character of the leadership behind Ripple and their dedication to seeing the growth and evolution of the Internet-of-Value (IoV). Ripple could have patented ILP’s technology, however, they knew that the influence of the Internet came from the fact that it served as a gateway to connect everyone. The Internet can accomplish this because it is not a single network or system but a network of networks with information being sent across multiple platforms using open-source proprieties. This allows communication across the Internet to be seamless irrespective of what provider people are associated with. Ripple understood the same way the open-source TCP/IP protocol gave rise to the greatest economic stimulus/engine the world has ever known in the Internet, the same principles needed to be applied to ILP in order to see their vision for the IoV to come to fruition. The leadership at Ripple understood that ILP was the “rising tide to lift all boats” not just XRP. Stefan Thomas (Ripple’s former CTO) talks @ 46:58 about how XRP was "designed to be used as the settlement asset on ILP" with "payment channels built in a certain way that is incredibly efficient" despite the presence of other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ether and Lumens. Also, the other stroke of genius by the Ripple team is how they gifted ILP as an open-sourced piece of technology to the W3C to oversee the development of ILP so that it remains a neutral platform for anyone to us. Basically, make ILP the worldwide standard (via W3C) allowing all currencies/blockchain tech to compete openly and freely, but all the while knowing that XRP will have the upper hand. Ripple's Art-of-War strategy of empowering its rivals/competition while simultaneously using them to further its Internet-of-Value (IoV) agenda is brilliant! Stefan Thomas went on to say in that same Q/A (3rd question down): "Finally, on the Interledger front we are moving on from working on the protocol and are starting to look at early use cases. We’ll be challenging a lot of use cases for distributed protocols that are currently using custom tokens with much simpler solutions that use ILP/XRP instead. (Think custom communications protocols that are for one purpose only being disrupted by the Internet.)" I think this quote pretty much encapsulates the current state of affairs with the advent/proposal of a collateralized stable coin feature that would also allow peg assets on the XRPL to some external value with liquidity guaranteed by the ledger mechanics itself (02:30 - 02:50). I whole-heartedly agree with you on this point. This is an area where Ripple is light-years ahead of any other blockchain company/platform. Because these smart contract platforms will operate globally, moving data/value within these systems in a lawfully obligatory way requires that there are defined standards. Utilizing a similar governance scheme, analogous to the (RippleNet Committee), to seamlessly on-board Banks/FIs from vastly different geographic and regulatory environments onto RippleNet, I can easily see Ripple applying a similar strategy for developing/integrating a smart contract legal framework layer (i.e. Codius) into RippleNet. -Sorry for the long post-
  10. 16 points

    XUMM Launch by Wietse Wind tomorrow

    Here's the Link to the event ....
  11. 16 points

    Xpring Open Payments

    https://docs.openpayments.dev/overview I read/skimmed the docs, and it looks good to me. This should allow apps like Uber/Airbnb to integrate with ILP, and therefore with a single coding effort, all ILP Connectors and any ledgers that the ILP Connectors support. On the very last page there is a flow for 3rd Party Payment Initiations like a Google or Apple Pay. This Open Payments initiative by Xpring should reduce the risk level of every investment they make, because each application startup will not have reinvent the "ILP integration wheel". The only thing that came to mind was, the idea that with Open Payments, two Exchanges could operate a Nostro/Vostro relationship directly, going around the XRPL... but they can do that already anyhow. All in all, this effort should speed up adoption and growth of the IoV, at both the application layer, and I'd also think it would also make it easier operating at the ILP Connector level. Once again, the Ripple folks have demonstrated superb strategy in choosing their initiatives.
  12. 14 points

    Epic Pennant on BTC Chart

    Sure, it is a combination of several things: 1. BTC is in a long term ascending pattern, and is currently consolidating into an increasingly compressed trading range after the 2017 impulse to 20k . The end state of any price compression is a violent breakout with a particular party (bulls or bears) finally prevailing as the defenses on the opposite side crumble. 2. Rounded bottom formed in early 2019 as the market rejected 3k btc is a good sign. Round bottoms on pullback waves are bullish imo as they signal mounting buying pressure that usually produces trend continuation; in this instance that means a continuation of the pattern formed by the original impulse wave to 20k. 3. Generally speaking, price = demand / supply. BTC's new supply is about to be cut in half come May. The very force that has served to produce fundamental BTC price support (unscientifically: initial lower trend line) is going to begin doubling in slope come May. 4. Increased price support slope is then going to slowly push the price upwards, which will create a violent breakout of the LT triangle, which will then attract new investor attention and thus increased demand, and the entire thing is going to snowball to 150-300k over the following months. Since all cryptos are fundamentally interconnected by virtue of being the same asset class, skyrocketing BTC will pull alts along for the ride (market contagion, but of the good kind) and cause them to punch through their own respective resistances and onto new ATHs. That's what I'm putting my money on anyway.
  13. 13 points
    Ripple partner Forte has announced an alliance with five game developers and publishers, including Hi-Rez Studios and Netmarble. https://www.forbes.com/sites/darrynpollock/2020/03/24/ripple-partner-forte-teaming-up-with-game-developers-to-integrate-blockchain/#4998a2171435 Their games are popular in Japan and the world.They have tens of millions users. I hope that XRP can be used for various purposes. It motivates investors and users to trade and hold. Net Marble Games Legendary MMORPG Lineage 2 Revolution II (30 million registered users) https://venturebeat.com/2019/03/20/netmarbles-lineage-2-revolution-crosses-1-billion-in-revenue/ Blade and Soul Revolution TERA ORIGIN (previous work 25 million users) The Seven Deadly Sins: Battle of Light and Darkness THE KING OF FIGHTERS ALLSTAR SevenKnights Hi-Rez Studios paladins ( 30 million users) https://www.epicgames.com/store/ja/product/paladins/home SMITE (30 million users) Realm Royale
  14. 13 points
    B+W is BTC. Colour is the Dow. Can clearly see here how significant losses in the Dow translated into significant losses in BTCUSD. At one point there was a couple of days' lag. This is likely due to margin calls in the Dow creating a liquidity drawdown from BTCUSD. This may continue in the absence of a massive stimulus package being announced. People may wrongly be attributing the idea of 'crisis hedge' to BTC. In reality, BTC may be even more like gold than at first thought (a hedge against inflation). This would mean a big reversal if big stimulus is announced... and it could happen whether or not stocks rebound. Thought it might be of interest to some here.
  15. 12 points

    Dan Bilzerian + Ripple/XRP

    I hope you all are having a great weekend there. A buddy of mine was hanging on his phone here at my house looking at Dan Bilzerians Instagram story. Dan was posting a video of his computer screen while he was playing online poker and we noticed a interesting logo on the bottom right of his screen....XRP Ledger Wallet icon. Kinda interesting for an otherwise boring weekend. For those of you who don't know who Dan Bilzerian, he’s.....just google him, it will be more fun that way, I promise you.
  16. 12 points
  17. 12 points
    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/03/19/sp031920-deputy-managing-director-tao-zhangs-keynote-address-on-central-bank-digital-currency It is a Pro/Con list, some highlights... Overall I think this it is interesting to see how the CBs are approaching this. Apparently Fbook's Libra and the Stablecoins, have raised some eyebrows. I still think CBDC should be interest bearing, for a number of reasons, but I can also see the argument for sCBDC and having true CBDC not be interest bearing. One good thing about CBDC IMHO is that with digital payments that are nearly instant within a domestic economy, RippleNet & XRPL's jobs get a lot easier and the whole idea of an IoV begins to looks like it has reached the age where it has master crawling, and is starting to learn to stand on it's own two feet. Only a few years ago, CBDC was considered "ridiculous". Here is an older thread where CBDC was discussed in some detail. Here is another one, and Here is one more (with a 6 min video where I explain the market dynamics of an interest bearing CBDC)
  18. 11 points
    He brings almost two decades of leadership experience in the banking and finance sectors to the global payments firm, which sees Asia Pacific as an increasingly important market. Ripple has appointed Kelvin Lee as its head of Southeast Asia operations, a role in which he will oversee the firm's expansion in the region, and spearhead efforts to drive the growth of its customer base, the firm announced in a statement on Wednesday. Lee previously held senior executive positions at companies including Mastercard, Visa, and FIS. His leadership experience spans Asia Pacific, Europe, Middle East, and Africa, in sectors like financial payments, fraud and risk management, data solutions and online mobile banking solutions. «We want to enable money to flow across borders as quickly as data does, by empowering players in the remittance and money transfer market,» Lee said about the appointment and the firm's growth plans. Growth Opportunity Ripple operates a blockchain-powered real-time gross settlement system, currency exchange and remittance network. In an interview with finews.asia in November 2019, its senior vice president of global operations, Eric van Miltenburg, said the firm is committed to investing in Singapore and the region, and that the advent and growth of digital banking in the region is an opportunity for Ripple to grow. Among the firm's customers in the region are Siam Commercial Bank in Thailand, CIMB in Malaysia, and Nium, formerly known as InstaReM, in Singapore Source: https://www.finews.asia/finance/31262-senior-exec-to-lead-ripple-xrp-ripplenet-regional-expansion-kelvin-lee -------- If I check the website of Ripple SE-Asia and/or Twitter feeds I can't find much info so I give it a place here. Looked interesting and a warm welcome is offered by the community I hope? I couldn't find Kevin Lee on Twitter but found Eric van Miltenburg. No to little communications about the appointment or anything serious. Are these appointments kept silent for some reason ?
  19. 11 points

    Epic Pennant on BTC Chart

    In 2008, gold and silver bottomed a couple of months into the crash (until Oct 2008, whereas the crash itself continued until Feb 2009 or so). We might anticipate something similar happening this time. And if BTC is similarly going to work as a safe haven - which does make a lot of sense - it may also bottom much sooner than the stock markets. But really, the above doesn't help because we don't know whether this crash is going to play out more like 2008, or more like (eek) 1929. A realistic-moderate scenario (i.e. 2008 style) for the S&P or the Dow etc is a 50% decline over the next several months. If the crash continues in several waves and bottoms in August, we might expect a bottom for crypto quite soon. If not already, then within a month or so. But... the macro economic picture is far, far, far worse than 2008. There is much more debt in the system. So I am thinking this could easily turn into something more akin to 1929. Coronavirus is about the cruellest way this bubble could pop due to supply chain disruption, mass quarantines and social reconditioning. If it's going to play out like 1929, then a realistic worst-case would be something like an 80% drop in stocks over the next two-three years. The delay in producing a vaccine and the likelihood of waves of mass infections and quarantines gives some credence to this idea. If this happens, then we may see several phases of liquidity drawdowns in crypto and gold/silver as well. People suckered back in too early may see a second or third wave of margin calls. There is absolutely zero certainty here. Anyone pronouncing "the bottom is in for crypto" is being naive. There are just so many variables now to consider. I'm advising anyone at this point to be extremely careful. Keep a reasonable amount in cash (ideally not in your bank!). This whole debacle could take years to play out - not merely days, weeks or months. By all means take a punt if you think the bottom is close, but keep your sanity.
  20. 11 points
    FYI: or skip if it is TLDR greetz RS Goldman Sachs hosted an Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were: 50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year. 70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected. Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter. The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal. Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly. Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system. There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load. China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover. Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%. S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall. There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year. In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US. Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history. There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.
  21. 11 points

    MoneyGram down -20% and falling hard

    Sorry, but do you live under a rock?
  22. 11 points

    The fuse has been lit.

    I am expecting substantial upward momentum in the near term (days to weeks). The indicators used/fundamentals research will not be shared on this side of the forum. I have no desire to share my personal opinions and analysis with those who offer nothing more than negativity & snide personal attacks. Some of the messages were truly vulgar (Thank you mods for removing them). I would respectfully suggest to some of the people that are decidedly bearish to take breath, zoom out a bit and look at the macro. There are some great minds in this forum that provide incredible technical & fundamentals insight. I will say this; IMO there is a major Fiat currency devaluation incoming. Glean from that what you will. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
  23. 10 points
    I think it is not even debatable that BTC is still king in volume and majority of newcomers, big and small, are attracted by BTC. Personally I dislike BTC because it is flawed in many ways, but it has one very big advantage. It was first. It is the best known and it has a big herd of wealthy people behind it who will keep promoting and pushing it into media to make sure they will do financially well in the near future. Big companies need a very liquid investment once they want to pull out, and BTC is by far the most liquid asset so that is currently the most interesting. Visit any random crypto site and compare BTC with XRP to see what is making real progress. All they are able to write about BTC is what the chart is doing, Twitter Trader X thinks BTC will go to Y, what exchange is doing what volume. Ripple reports partnership after partnership and progress after progress in RippleNet. Again, what most XRP investors are investing for is that eventually this traction will result in more demand for XRP. Will that happen? Who knows. What most in here are betting on, without the hopium part, is that there comes a moment in time where utility and technology will outweigh hype. 2017 allready showed BTC crashes once it is really used/traded and people hope a centralized second layer (Lightning) will save their network once they can get it working. It's the 2000 internet bubble all over, and people blindly buy everything that ends on .com without checking fundamentals of companies.
  24. 10 points
    That's because you have linked to the wrong page. Here's the correct page: https://publications.banque-france.fr/sites/default/files/media/2020/02/04/central-bank-digital-currency_cbdc_2020_02_03.pdf It's on page 28. The link from the original article is the one for the "internal report": https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2020/04/bank-of-france-touts-ethereum-and-xrp-to-power-central-bank-digital-currencies/ Please take your misinformation elsewhere.
  25. 10 points
    It has been some time since we had some news https://ripple.com/ripple-press/deemoney-partners-with-ripple-to-empower-faster-and-cheaper-cross-border-money-transfers/
  26. 10 points

    ODL Nations

    Yes it would. But as they said around the time we were all analysing their sales - it's still good for independent researchers to check the figures - to keep them honest. When I first plotted their sales and correlated them to exchange volume, I got a figure of around 3% of daily volume being sold - which shocked me slightly as being so high. (for ref - posts (Nov 2018), (2018 Q4), (2019 Q1/Q2)) Later I started using different exchange volume data and their % dropped proportionally due to the higher volume numbers I was using, but they subsequently decided that their original exchange volume was probably contaminated by wash trading and switched to using a lower estimate (similar to the one I had been using originally) and dropped their sales correspondingly. I like to think that those of us tracking these things made a difference and helped to persuade ripple to reduce sales. I'm not sure that tracking ODL activity can impact anything much, but I'm sure that they will eventually release data of ODL amounts, corridors etc etc. Probably sooner rather than later - but - only if ODL turns out to save money for organisations like MGI. Once that has been established (and we still don't know if that's the case), they will no doubt want to tell everyone about it, but we're still very early in the game. One thing I think I'm seeing is that volatility does hurt ODL traffic, but I haven't really investigated this properly and will have to look into it further. I ought to have enough data now. The problem is that if ripple are subsidising MGI/FlashFX/others then it is much harder to be certain as traffic might continue even when loss making is occurring. I might need to look at trade data such as the stuff that @JASCoderhas been plotting to really investigate properly, but I don't have enough time to devote to this right now. My suspicion is that the ODL ripplenet interface includes a 'transfer when best' type option so that you can request a payment be made, but not immediately, so that if the rates fluctuate and are better than X or Y then the payment goes through, but if not, it goes via normal channels when some time limit elapses. This would explain spikes and dips in ODL traffic at certain times (similar to how an arbitrage bot works). Anyway. I'm sure we'll see figure from ripple soon. maybe the 2020 Q1 report will have more info. I'm hoping more channels open up soon, maybe the JPY/KRW stuff that utilityscan saw was the start of new corridor testing. fingers crossed - if they are new corridors, then my scripts will pick them up and they will be included in my plots and sums. (and yes - before anyone asks - I'm certain that increased ODL traffic will drive up price - we will just need a lot of it - and fewer economic collapses like the one happening right now).
  27. 10 points

    The fuse has been lit.

    When he posts his speculative predictions publicly you whine about it, when he does not post them you whine again. It seems a total waste of your time to me. Just ignore him and your problem is solved! And also if you think you are "saving" anyone you also waste your time. If somebody bases his investment decisions on the posts (or PMs) of an anonymous dude in a speculative forum with an antelope (or whatever that animal is) eating popcorn as an avatar, he is so stupid that does not deserve to be "saved" in the first place .
  28. 9 points
    Says the child who puts a laughing smiley at every positive post of others forum users. Grow up, and stop whining about "all the promises Brad made on twitter that lured my dumbass into crypto". Thats the card you try to stick on to to disquise the real deal while you derail every thread you possibly can under the flag of being a poor poor victim. You are a victim indeed, a victim of your own incompetence. You're a kid, go play outside.
  29. 9 points

    Will crypto rebound?

    In my opinion, crypto in general will probably see a safe haven bid. Particularly as the legacy financial system falls apart quite thoroughly over coming weeks and years. Hedges in this respect have historically been the dollar, bonds and gold/silver. Let's take a look at the dollar (six month DXY chart): As we can see, the USD has been pumping quite a bit. Precious metals have relatively underperformed and will probably keep underperforming until the USD begins to look top-ish. This could be unfolding right now... note the correction in USD above which is probably worth keeping an eye on. A parallel for the USD may be BTC's blow-off top in 2017. As it started to look bloated, people started speculating more in other coins. Once BTC began plummeting in earnest, everyone rushed to the exits - and this is when we saw XRP launch like a rocket. Similarly, I expect gold and silver to start showing more strength as the USD begins: a) showing weakness; or b) starts looking like a bubble. A major crisis like this has never happened before in BTC's lifetime, so one cannot be absolutely certain that BTC will perform well. However, as an "escape route" from fiat currency and from the legacy financial system, it does have a sound argument. As digital gold, it is arguably better than real gold: it is more portable and more divisible, and importantly - it bears no counter-party risk. In 1971 Nixon confiscated gold. It's hard to see that happening with Bitcoin unless they shut down the internet. Whilst XRP does not have the same characteristics as BTC, if the rush into BTC happens - as seems likely to me - then the wider crypto market will probably receive some speculative overflow bids. Personally, I've lightened up on XRP (I already owned a fair amount) in order to buy more gold and silver. I think there's a pretty good chance that silver in particular will outperform crypto. I've also lightened up on bank deposits as I don't trust the banks to remain solvent either ($10trn global reserves, $300trn+ global debt, $1.2qdrn in derivatives). I'm telling everyone at the moment to at least consider the risks of bank defaults. Better safe than sorry. I expect more deflation to come in the short to medium term, and the corresponding scramble for cash to affect all asset classes including safe havens. As investors in crypto, what we're looking for is the later inflationary effects - or the threat of inflation - to kick in. Good luck all.
  30. 9 points
    Howdy thar Xrpiet - thanks for your interest in my ODL research ! You can see from the two charts below (black is price/volume action at Bitstamp over the last few hours, and the blue is the raw xrp hourly sells volume at Bitso), you can clearly see at hour 15 a flurry of heavy buying at Bitstamp, and corresponding selling action at Bitso. Viewing the Bitstamp pricing you see a small upwards bump as well, and interestingly, at Bitso, there was no perceptible pricing impact. Over the last many "crisis weeks" I've continued to monitor this ODL corridor, and it's been heartening to note that the steady usage of ODL continues to strengthen. JFYI, I continue developing more "scanner" tools, in particular for slippage metrics. But I ran into a frustrating discovery, in that the FX rates play more of a significant impact on the slippage pricing than I'd realized. I'm pursuing better sources for more a granular and accurate API source (IG is really good, but they won't give me access to their APIs because I'm not in the UK. They are working on providing that for USA "soon" I'm told). Oh, and the Visa-dev's solution want $3000 to set me up. :-/ I also pursued adding the coins.ph order book to my charts, but they won't give me an API key until I have renewed by passport (a CB requirement). Sigh.
  31. 9 points
    I haven't spent much time on the forums lately as work has picked up and I'm researching more conventional old fashioned investments to compliment my current holdings. If you have not seen David Schwartz' video on creating collateralized stable coins or other assets on the XRP ledger, watching this in light of what I said before should serve as a solid sell on the concept of what sort of redemption powers XRP will be capable of in the future. Taking into account the debacle of Nexo liquidations on March 12, 2020, there are a number of significant lessons and mile markers worth paying attention to on the road to decentralized finance and the derivative token economy. Custody held by Bitgo seems to be reliable enough for enterprise class banking institutions but transparency for retail customers relying on the system is spotty at best. But this is less of an issue than other issues that are more pressing. Ethereum is not the right platform for DeFi under the present performance constraints. There are many complaints across the board of individuals getting notification regarding their LTV dipping below the 83% threshold (or whatever it is depending on your asset portfolio), depositing funds reliant on the ethereum blockchain, and congestion on the blockchain preventing their deposit transactions from being committed before their funds were liquidated. The main problem here seems to be that companies serving their best interest are incentivized to move liquidation orders ahead of deposits when they are simultaneously generating interest revenue for stablecoin depositors. It is true that they make money when they service loans, however the complication of also being accountible to depositers directly - really, the effect of having a more honest banking system - is that you have less float to recover from margins if you are dedicated to maintaining the integrity of all accounts hosted on the platform. The consequences of having a system that protects depositors is less wiggle room for borrowers - but I believe this is as it should be - why should depositors own the lion's share of the risk (as happens now in conventional banking, which based on the global bailout numbers favors leverage and risk taking). We got into this mess because there is a LOT of leveraged money propping up the prices of the stock markets and as a result there are no real safe havens where bad money has not already chased out the good (Gresham's Law) and people who are afraid of the risks being levied on the current economic systems take the earliest flight to cash. I ran into this issue myself, when I first tried sending ERC-20 Tether to cover collateral and found it took too long. That being said, there is a solid business case for leveraging assets yielding confidently asymmetric returns. As someone who persistently leveraged at 10-15% peaks and reinvested at 20% drops I was doing quite well with my holdings, however those gains did disappear on Mar 12. I take full responsibility for those losses, of course. A safer strategy on leverage would be to pull on strong runs and do a calculated reinvestment that took into account what the worst case price scenario would be - the bottom out - and deposit enough stablecoin to keep your account above the liquidation threshold with regard to your token holdings. I gave this example on reddit. Say you have a $1000 loan balance and your threshold is $800. Under normal credit line limits say you have your balance in XRP and you normally have assets valued at around $4000. If you do not have stablecoins in your account and the price goes as it did - from $0.36 to $0.105 - at least if your reinvested 100% of your loan back into collateral you would most likely not get completely wiped out by the oracle - assuming you have a v-shaped price recovery on the minute. If it was sustained, the odds of you getting cleared out beforehand are pretty high. At the very least, if you took into account the value of your tokens at your own personal worst case scenario pricing and then made up the difference between that total and the liquidation threshold LTV amount you would be buying yourself a little bit of insurance during flash crashes. This would have the same effect to paying down the loan on that account, but with the advantages being that you could release that capital as the values went higher - but those coins are all locked down until the market recovers. You could also pay down the loan if you felt that made more sense, since the interest you are paying on the amount is far higher than what you gain through having the stablecoins on deposit - it really depends on how protracted the price crash is expected to be. These are all up to you. But my point here is that ethereum is too prone to congestion to provide efficient and reliable DeFi services. I'd like to see a stablecoin issued on the XRPL if for no other reason than speed and reliability. It will serve a significant purpose in the future in terms of providing rapid collateral protection applications as digital lending and finance takes off. Combined with enterprise-grade secure custody (Polysign, I'm looking in your direction) this is going to be a knockout win for DeFi. Until the congestion issues of decentralized finance of digital assets are resolved in times of crisis, the public is right to be very skeptical of the safety and forthrightness of DeFi. If XRPL is pushed to the limits and a proper DeFi platform is developed that can successfully leverage the speed and clarity of XRP it will likely earn people's trust and become a massive use case for the token. The funny thing is that many people are stating that Nexo is a scam because they were not given the amount of float they normally expect from financial outfits that have more risk tolerance and are willing to put savers at risk in order to cater to leveraged (and sometimes far overleveraged) traders. It is hard for many to swallow the bad financial habits the world has grown accustomed to. If the fixed-income classes were not so old and ignored there would be a serious revolt. They are the ones being given the shaft by all of this clown world finance. I don't know if crypto is immune - I don't believe it is. I've been shouted down by many young traders who insisted bitcoin was isolated and different, we could not use convention market movements to understand bitcoin - it was a 'new market' and old the old rules don't apply. Down with banks (flip sign) welcome institutional money. Independent markets (flips sign) where's our ETF and derivatives. There is a lot of borrowed money feeding the cryptocurrency markets now. That is only going to get crazier and crazier as hyperinflation hits and people understand that some finite asset networks have irreplaceable value added services attached. It is easier to fork bitcoin than it is to duplicate the ripplenet partner network. It remains to be seen how loyal bitcoin users will be to the bitcoin payment network as DeFi rolls out - I think this could realy push PoW to its breaking point and open up the space to faster assets with less congestion risks during times of high transaction volume. I've said it in other places, don't sell too early - the value of your millions may expire quicker than you expect - while assets, particularly deflationary assets, are where the real value will last longer.
  32. 9 points
  33. 9 points

    World Community Grid

    What originally got me interested in Ripple was the World Community Grid "Program", at the time I had been dabbling in btc mining and found the concept of donating my excess computing power to something more useful much more interesting, especially with the added xrp incentive. With Ripple still sitting on billions of XRP and the world facing a pandemic it would be great to see a refresh of this program if there was a suitable program to participate in (WCG most recent announcement is they have not yet found any projects). For those that were not around back in 2013: https://ripple.com/insights/world-community-grid-welcomes-ripple-labs-as-a-partner/
  34. 9 points
    Dear quan, Absolutely, that’s a great idea! I’ll make that public right away. We appreciate you letting us know about this. Hope you have a wonderful Wednesday and always remember to “Keep On Ripplin’!” TM. Yours truly, Matt Ripple
  35. 8 points
    Wow, impatient much? Since 2018 even? Daggone, that was yearrrrrrrs ago, wasn't it? "(please don’t tell me that using RL Software is the first step to using XRP. If that is the case there have been plenty of banks using RL SW since 2018 and none of them have moved to XRP for massive settlements— if the message is crawl walk run, our baby is about 2 years behind schedule, and needs to get up of it’s hands and knees and do something)" I'm guessing that you somehow think that the massive pools of liquidity necessary for handling very large transactions can be engineered overnight, right? I myself am very comfortable with "crawl, walk, run." It's all about the direction that Ripple is heading, and are they on the right path to get there. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and presume that you've never "enjoyed" the pleasure of backpacking - a lot of good lessons come from it. First and foremost, is that rarely is anything accomplished in "leaps and bounds," - it comes down to perseverance and being comfortable with "baby steps."
  36. 8 points
    That's because serious investors don't live in an echo chamber and they realize that these things aren't as big as the fans of the various cryptos make them out to be. To fans of any particular coin, they make mountains out of a molehill. The bigger investors know that there's not much coming for these cryptos the next few months outside maybe a whale pump or some market fomo. Real mass adoption is still years away, if it every happens.
  37. 8 points
    2020 seems to be one long steam of good news stories about Ripple/XRP meshing into the foundations of the financial world. It is strange that investors go on treating XRP as a subset of Bitcoin, the two blockchain projects are clearly going in opposite directions with very different destinies. One day people will look back at this period and wonder why they missed what was happening under their noses.
  38. 8 points

    Q1 2020 ODL report

    Ripplenet uses ILP under the hood, and ILP allows quotes to be provided for payments. From the point of view of Ripple development, it doesn't make sense to implement one kind of API for ODL and another for 'normal' payments. Rather there is probably a single API and ILP inteface and different backends that support payments via different ILP connectors. In that context ... ODL is just another payment - take USD->MXN as a working example and let's hypothesize - MGI may have modified their systems to drip feed their nostro (vostro?) account in mexico with MXN - Instead of settling up at the end of each business day (or however frequently they rebalanced their accounts before ripplenet), so now they have setup their systems to drip feed money from USD/MXN at regular intervals throughout the day, let's say a few thousands every N minutes (subject to need, so it slows when not required, increases when needed). In the backend, the ODL XRP connector is monitoring the bitstamp/bitso prices and quotes and placing offers into the system whenever queried so that you can get a rate of X during some time window. The MGI system (that must run on top of ripplenet) will look at all the rates available during time windows and send money via normal or ODL depending on which is cheaper at that moment. If we see a burst of activity over ODL, then we can/should? assume that for whatever reason, ODL is cheaper than the forex quotes for a while? The real questions I have are - why do ripple need to give MGI $9mm in a quarter to incentivize them to use ODL? Is it because the ODL quotes are not good enough and they take a payment each time to make the offer better - is this built into the ILP connector itself or is it money that's paid later on? It would make accounting much harder if it is paid later, but if the ILP connector itself is being subsidised (with bonus XRP) to make better offers, then all makes sense and the system would be much simpler to account and run - because the MGI layer just needs to make the payments and not 'decide' how to send them, the painful compensation calculations are done by ripple inside the connector. Maybe the $9mm is actually money that was needed to be spent on redesigning the MGI payment system itself to run on top of ripplenet and change the way they rebalance their accounts? Maybe the $9mm is for something else. How can we find the answers? Additionally - now we know that there is a top-up fund to allows for slippages that happen between the connector making a quote and the payment actually happenning - this is where volatility comes into play in my mind. When volatility is high the connector is not going to provide high value, low risk quotes for payments, so ODL traffic will drop. By analogy - if there is a currency shock - then the Forex quotes might be subject to some volatility and we might see ODL jump. I would like to spend time analysing this - but really I don't actually care how it works. I only want to know if ODL is really cheaper on average than Forex. IF the answer is yes, then I'm happy and my "investment" is safe. We could effectively write our own ILP connector by taking the bitstamp/bitso order books and providing quotes (this is what your analysis is doing), but what can it be used for other than these kind of what-if questions? Just random thoughts.
  39. 8 points

    Q1 2020 ODL report

    The extra effort you have expended to provide the community such quality content is greatly appreciated. I know how that last 5% of polish can often consume a disproportionate amount of effort ! Well done John. Our respective research is complementary, we could certainly gain some synergy and avoid redundant effort by collaborating :) Most of your shared research and analysis are constant with my own observations and conclusions, so I will respond to your content on the points left unaddressed, or at odds with my own... You have have focused on the ledger activity, which I found both fascinating and supportive of my own guesses and observations. My efforts have been more narrow in focus, monitoring the behavior and drilling down into measuring the cost slippage computed from the dual order books of the BS/Bitso exchanges. I will address the following points : --- ODL's apparent behavior at the more granular level Volatility and its impact on the efficacy of ODL processes My current theory on ODL's operational design TRAFFIC PATTERNS When you observe the XRP sales at Bitso, in a ten-minute granularity, it appears relatively uniform through out the hours of the day, except for a precipitous drop to near-zero on Saturday morning, but then resumes on late Sunday (generally). There is, however, the occasional spikes and drops which deviate from the established pattern. I have been able to correlate some of these events with apparent arbitrage opportunities for profit, or excessive cost slippage periods. My efforts to improve the accuracy and precision for measuring the cost profile has been currently a bit stymied by stale and inaccurate FX rate data (which I hope to soon have resolved!). VOLATILITY IMPACT In the past have posted here on XRP Chat some captured charts and conveyed analysis of a few anomalous events of valuation spikes and drops, as well as occasions of passive observations. In one instance, the steady process of XRP sells at Bitso didn't even reflect any apparent impact from a sudden dumping of XRP and valuation drop at Bitstamp. This was actually surprising, but viewing the slippage metrics showed a reduced cost friction, so it's not really surprising in that context. I have not seen any real evidence that volatility causes ODL to be less effective, or at least to show any discernible impact. But we should do more research into this, which I'm hoping to do in the future as well. MY THEORY OF ODL OPERATION What we cannot know: the depth of reserve fiat capital held ready on-account at any ODL corridor's two exchanges. That of course, is managed by the market Takers and Makers. It might be wisest to assume such data is also unknown by Ripple's ODL operations (to keep our analysis simplified). 1. The buy/sell trade events are not directly driven by remittance customers. It makes zero sense it could be the case, given the uniform pattern of trading volume we can monitor from the exchanges' own exposed market data. As you surmised John, there must be some mechanism for value pooling of a "nostro/vostro style" performed by the managing ODL processes which Ripple operates. 2. It is very possible the ODL does act upon any detected arbitrage opportunities, to both acquire additional XRP or sell down some surplus on occasions when friction is extra low or into a profit range. 3. ODL's capacity to leverage the dual markets for moving cross-border value is constrained by both the depth and re-balancing latency of the market makers. So perhaps the ODL processes are monitoring in realtime the ever fluctuating slippage profile, and they meter their transactions accordingly. They are incentivized to not over-run the market's capacity of course, to avoid exceeding their "pain threshold" on costs (my guess that is constrained to a maximum tolerance of about 1.2 percent slippage cost) - and they don't want to be too low with their automated trading and discourage the market makers from devoting their capital resources to Ripple's ODL corridors. Cheers friend ! ( Please do DM me here John, we should compare notes moving forward )
  40. 8 points

    Epic Pennant on BTC Chart

    I’d suggest to keep politics and religion out of this thread. I am sorry but to me you have just lost a ton of credibility bringing up some weird religious political viewpoints about Europe that hold little to no merit whatsoever.
  41. 8 points
    From what Tiny (who's gone now?!!) had shared with me in past exchanges, he said from his own research he found that the trade actions we see occurring at the ODL corridor endpoints are not driven directly by customer transfers, but the paid in fiat submissions are pooled and metered by Ripple's processes to be buy/transfer/sell payloads, handled in a roughly constant flow over a 24 hour period; this is to prevent out-running the arbitrage re-balancing dynamics between the endpoints and realize excessive friction we assume. Our best guess is that Ripple is maintaining their own fiat capital pools at the pay-out endpoints, which acts as a buffer - much like an electric capacitor does. The hourly volume metrics we see seem to bear this out - as you certainly would not expect remittance customers to maintain a 24 hour period of same sized transfers on weekdays. I hope I'm making sense. You can glean more details on this from our past posts here in this thread IIRC (tho his name will now show as "Guest"). Cheers.
  42. 8 points

    Charting the course of XRP

    I find it surprising that people think they know the absolute top price of a utility coin that has never yet achieved even a fraction of its potential. It’s completely uncharted territory for any crypto, but some folk seem to be absolutely sure they know it’s limits. I’ve got no idea why they think they can be sure of the limit when it’s like has never been seen in the world before. And may not for some years more. It may take some years yet before we find out what a utility coin carrying some significant percentage of world commerce is going to be worth. I think anyone that is already sure of its limits has no basis for that belief.
  43. 8 points

    Charting the course of XRP

    wow baka, your personality has changed from keep asking "confirmation questions due to low confidence", to spewing "pessimistic facts/opinion with confidence".
  44. 8 points
    Everything that he said. There indeed has to be a buyer for every seller. If not, the price is zero, and you couldn't sell. I don't understand why that's hard to fathom. The price 3 years ago was between .03 and .05, and before that it was under a .01. That is most certainly price appreciation. Sure, price action hasn't been what we've hoped for the last several years, but it's what it's. Progress and fundamentals continue to improve, price will find support at some point. If you disagree with that, you should sell your holdings.
  45. 8 points

    Next big drop coming?

    Hard to forecast but my gut feeling tells me that we haven‘t seen the bottom yet.
  46. 8 points
    I have always thought that there must come a time when the Ripple and Ripple Exec XRP ownership issue comes into play. Addressing the issue has been pushed aside and delayed by the XRP price going down and down, but when it begins to rise again this will be an issue again. I feel sure the Ripple are aware of the impossibility of XRP being adopted as the standard cross border DA at the same time as their being allowed to hold over 50% of the stock. No democracy, or dictatorship, can allow a private company to have that power over their economy. I expect there are plans in the background about how to hand over the XRP to a neutral third party governance (destroying them would be absolute folly). I expect it may be part of a deal between SEC and Ripple for regulation clarity? Crypto Eri has posted a really interesting video today about how the covid-19 is causing a rapid breakdown of the old paradigms (correspondence banking with vostro nostro accounts), and how essential XRP will be for trading CBDCs across borders. I agree with her and agree with her calling it a perfect storm that XRP can solve.
  47. 8 points

    ODL Nations

    The is the first I've seen JPY and KRW.
  48. 8 points

    Charting the course of XRP

    It's just an upgrade of my existing plots. I wanted to improve the display to show the relative strength of each corridor. It went from this to this and I added other resampling options to give weekly/quarterly/etc sums. I wanted to see if the numbers in the Q4 report matched the figures I get (they do). The final bar in the above plot is today starting at 00:00::00 UTC so it is a small bar as it's only 7am where I am. The weekly plot is going to be fine. we still have friday (usually good) + sat/sun (not good) to add and it looks like this, so this would be the 4th largest week so far - but I suspect we'll get close to #1 by sunday. I suspect that the global shutdown will reduce the amount of money being sent around - so I initially thought ODL will fall - but as only a small % of total traffic is using ODL, we might not see too big an impact. (I plot this data just for my for my own education as I am still waiting for the point where my model of ODL volume / xrp price to kick in).
  49. 8 points

    Dear Ripple, please make this fact public

    Why don't you go chase the dingo that ate both your xrp and half of your brain?
  50. 8 points
    Different corridors have different patterns of transmission.
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