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Molten

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  1. Yep, that was more or less a quick eyeball of the XRP chart to guess at a downside. Nobody really knows, obviously, but it won't be pretty if BTC breaks down.
  2. Hey guys, checking in with an update. It is decision time for BTC and it looks like it wants to break down, as it has broken below $30k and is riding the Bollinger bands down. Needs to reverse course here or it looks like a big breakdown coming. The rest of the market will follow as BTC leads. XRP has lost that critical $0.65 level and has been grinding lower, so I don't see any strength to defy BTC here. I do think there is a fair possibility that BTC rallies out of this position, but you have to put the odds on a break down. If it does, I think $24k and then $20k are the targets to look at. I would expect that this will put XRP back into the $0.30's or so.
  3. I wasn't doubting the validity of your post, I hope it didn't come across that way. I've just learned at this point that most news is already priced in and focusing on the price action seems to be "the way". You are absolutely correct that something serious could come out of Tether but, until it happens, it's all noise to me. Maybe I'd be paying more attention if I were invested in crypto right now, but I'm not, so I don't
  4. Short term chart, BTC working through a likely continuation pattern. A break below $30k will put BTC in danger of breaking the massive head and shoulders neckline and that would be disastrous IMO. 30k needs to hold.
  5. Yes, the Tether thing continues to be an issue plaguing the market, though it has kind of become a zombie FUD - it keeps coming back. The fact that the Fed are naming it specifically, I agree, portends potential trouble ahead. On the other hand, there always seems to be a theme for each big market movement. There was some Tether FUD when BTC pulled back from 40k to 30k on the way up. Then there was a big pump from Elon Musk and Michael Saylor and all that nonsense. Now that its falling, there is China mining FUD and now Tether FUD again. There's always a "reason" for every big market move. Honestly, the more I follow markets and charts, the more I realize that "news" follows the charts rather than the other way around. Sometimes, things happen that are TRULY significant, like the XRP lawsuit - that had material impact on the potential future of the company and token and the price responded appropriately. But those are pretty rare events overall.
  6. If I'm being honest, I think we are just starting out on what will likely be a more protracted bear market then many are expecting. There will be violent counter-trend rallies along the way, when the price shoots up and makes you want to FOMO in, only to drop right back down. We've already seen a few just in the past couple of weeks. This is how bear markets are, they do everything they can to get you back in. The time to buy will be when you don't want to anymore. When everyone has given up, crypto is dead, and the price has flatlined for months (or even years). That is the time to accumulate, put in only what you can afford to lose, and stop watching. I did that with BTC in the 7-11k range and it worked out beautifully. Unfortunately, I started adding alts like HBAR after they had already pumped and ended up giving some of those BTC gains back (though I am proud and happy to say that I closed out with significant overall gains nonetheless). Now, no one knows the future, and I certainly don't. But the least likely scenario to me, at this point, is that BTC and the crypto market just rip higher from here. Way too much technical damage has been done for that IMO. ALTHOUGH, head and shoulders patterns CAN fail and, if BTC rallies off of 30k and reclaims the 200 DMA, I would obviously have to revisit that thesis. Until then, I'm out - and trying not to watch too much for fear that I will get sucked back in on a pump. Emotions are your biggest enemy. Usually when your emotions are burning the hottest, it is wise to either do the opposite or nothing at all.
  7. I will add from the chart above: BTC has convincingly lost the 200 day moving average, which has never happened DURING a bull run, but always signals the end. During the down times, it will cross above and below the 200 DMA, but it has never crossed below while in the bull phase. That being said, we only have 2 prior bull cycles to analyze, so to take observations from two events and cling to them as incontrovertible facts is silly. It is that type of thinking that made me hold BTC despite clear signs of break down, rather than selling at 50k - because BTC "always" ends in a blow off top and I thought there was no way the topping pattern we were seeing was the end. Lesson: don't get caught looking at the past, look at what the chart is telling you in the moment.
  8. There is no doubt now that BTC has formed a huge, textbook-perfect head and shoulders top. The only question now is whether it will successfully complete with a break down (80%) or show us a rejection of the pattern and rally off of the neckline (20%). Those aren't my odds, those are the actual percentage accuracy of head and shoulder patterns. Honestly, I think we will know within the next few days. Wishing genuine good luck to the hodlers, I dumped all crypto holdings about a month back. Selfishly, I am hoping for a crash back down to $15-20k so I can reload at bargain prices.
  9. Right now we just have a perfect backtest of the break out line but, I have to admit, across all of crypto, the charts don't look good. Big downside moves like these don't resolve quickly and I expect this will be a long slog down for the next 3-6 months before any meaningful growth. Somehow I doubt we are in for another "crypto winter" but there needs to be a big consolidation here. Caveat: I do think there is a high probability of a near term pump and this might be a good exit point for those not wanting to hold through volatility. I think the odds of us just resuming the bull run here are very low. Sorry for the bearish post, still expect good things later this year or into 2022.
  10. This is starting to look really good. I suspect that XRP is going to break out in a major way once Bitcoin has finished $hitting the bed.
  11. HBAR has been pretty anemic recently so I understand the move. It is right up against support, however, so I am looking (hoping) for a rebound here.
  12. Always hard to predict, but I wouldn't be dismayed if it dips down to test the lower support again. On the other hand, it could completely rocket up from here. There is no bearish interpretation to this chart.
  13. It's been a little while since I've posted an XRP chart, figured i'd check in. Looks like a very bullish consolidation while the long term averages catch up after the first big move. So happy to see the long term hodlers finally rewarded for their faith. More good things to come, but I am kind of expecting for BTC to finally wake up and make a move of its own, which may put the altcoin rally on hold.
  14. A lot of people think we have only a few more months left in this bull cycle. The timing, to me, is unclear. What I am banking on, and what I am hoping I will be able to recognize, is the parabolic blow off top at the end. Like 2-3 weeks of straight up ending in a violent crash. There are clues on the chart but its always hard to call in real time. But when everything goes vertical, its best to be wary. When "normies" around you start talking about swapping DeFi tokens, get ready to get out.
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