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Peter Brandt tweets "equating foreign currency volume to $XRP is a huge stretch of imagination"

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$2900 - 30% = $3164 is a huge stretch of the imagination as well, but it's happening with bitcoin right now, lol.

He was obviously referencing something, although he didn't mention.  This has never been the math for XRP going up anyway.  There are a few ways XRP could be touched by that volume, but I don't think anyone is saying "$5.3 trillion / 100bn = XRP's future price."  If they are, he is right to call them out on it.  This is a contributing factor, but no one expects XRP to own 100% of anything.  And it can still sky rocket that way.

 

 

 

 

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I do see these numbers thrown around quite a bit by people on forums, chat rooms, reddit, etc...and it always seems like people who are just trying to wrap their minds around what the hell the possibility really is for XRP...

Now, I'm not sure if what he means by foreign currency trading volume is different than what Ripple's website has on it currently ($155 Trillion worth of B2B cross border transactions). If he's talking about pure currency trading as opposed to payments, I have no idea, BUT! Like I said, I do see people constantly trying to quantify what the potential value of XRP would be based on the value of all cross border payments. From my understanding, Ripple would likely catch a fraction of that roughly 155 Trillion dollars in the inefficient corridors. The question I'm trying to wrap my head around now is do we value these assets in terms of seconds now, instead of days? How much XRP is available in a given second? After all, we can't print more of them. :)

As a community I think we are somewhat responsible for the spread of information and there are quite a few youngsters hopping on board here. Are they playing with big money? Probably not, but what happens to them now will echo throughout the rest of their lives with respect to their attitudes and expectations. But I digress...

I have gotten to the point where I am concerned that people are misrepresenting what the possibilities are. 

11 minutes ago, JoelKatz said:

But I don't think any of us can predict where it will actually go.

I agree with this entirely and believe that people need to err on the side of cautious optimism. Ripple and XRP are fundamentally amazing, but there is a lot more at play and when it comes to money, man oh man, let's hope people aren't risking too much. 

 

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29 minutes ago, JoelKatz said:

It would also be 100% of the wrong thing. It would be like speculating if email could ever capture the volume of postal mail.

Sure, if you were pitching email, you'd say that it has all the same use cases of postal mail. And someone would respond that it's not good for packages and the recipient can't physically store it. They might go on to say that maybe, at the most, 85% of postal mail doesn't absolutely require physical delivery, so maybe if email was ubiquitous it could capture 85% of postal mail's volume.

But that would so obviously be very silly. To think of email as "like postal mail, but faster and cheaper" misses the extent to which being much faster and much cheaper fundamentally changes something.

So, yes, at first you think of email as "if the other person has email, and you don't need physical delivery, it's faster and cheaper than physical mail", just as we think of XRP the same way today compared to conventional international payments. But I don't think any of us can predict where it will actually go.

I think one more point to add is....because email is so cheap and fast, people send it more often compared to postal mail. 

If you apply the same concept, people will conduct more payments/transactions as it is cheaper and faster (small value payments) which will increase the volumes and create new markets/demand. 

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51 minutes ago, Dennis said:

 XRP supply is finite, demand is limitless, and fundamentals are stronger than any other token in the crypto world, hands down.

 

My only bone to pick would be with the concept of limitless demand. That doesn't make any sense to me. How is it infinite? Do we not live in a world of limitations? Is commerce not bound by supply and demand, neither or which is infinite?

 

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8 minutes ago, Dennis said:

How many people were on planet earth 10, 20, 50, 100 years ago vs today?

 

A calculable, finite amount of people lived 100 years ago versus today. In fact, today, there are a finite amount of people on earth.  lol. 

I'm just giving you a hard time. I think that it's important to delineate between theory and reality when we're talking about potentially influencing someone to buy something. If someone comes along who doesn't know any better and thinks "Wow! Infinite demand!! That's crazy!" I feel it is disingenuous at worst, misguided at best. 

XRPs value will be determined by its demand which, in our lifetimes, will have a measurable and quantifiable amount. In fact, that's why money or currency has a number tied to it. Because it is finite. And we don't know how political tensions or another technological innovation could render demand for cross border payments obsolete. We must remain cautious. 

I'm only saying this to hopefully offer another way of thinking for people who might be using this forum as a justification for dumping money into something. I'm not arguing with you to argue. I enjoy this forum and the people on it. May the demand for XRP increase steadily!

 

 

Edited by Hodlezerper
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2 hours ago, Dennis said:

$2900 - 30% = $3164 is a huge stretch of the imagination as well, but it's happening with bitcoin right now, lol.

He was obviously referencing something, although he didn't mention.  This has never been the math for XRP going up anyway.  There are a few ways XRP could be touched by that volume, but I don't think anyone is saying "$5.3 trillion / 100bn = XRP's future price."  If they are, he is right to call them out on it.  This is a contributing factor, but no one expects XRP to own 100% of anything.  And it can still sky rocket that way.

 

 

 

 

In this post it says ripple would only need 1% of all global cross border transactions to reach 173$

https://www.reddit.com/r/Ripple/comments/6r4o4o/lets_do_some_maths_and_prediction_and_prepare/

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2 hours ago, JoelKatz said:

Sure, if you were pitching email, you'd say that it has all the same use cases of postal mail. And someone would respond that it's not good for packages and the recipient can't physically store it. They might go on to say that maybe, at the most, 85% of postal mail doesn't absolutely require physical delivery, so maybe if email was ubiquitous it could capture 85% of postal mail's volume.

Great analogy, but I think value can be less tangible, as in people don't need cash in hand or physical checks anymore, so there's no need for a package with money in it like there is for physical goods. I'd compare it to an envelope with a letter in it, you don't need the post office to deliver a letter for you anymore, you only need to send an email or instant message. How many people hand write and send letters in the mail today, and even so most companies are going green to make everything electronic... Is it safe to say email and IM have mostly replaced hand written letters in the mail? I think IoV will do the same thing to cash and checks and other forms of value, especially cross-border payments!

We sometimes see faxes, and sometimes there's a need for important printed physical documents, but that's more like your package with physical goods...

Value is becoming more like information and less like a physical asset, unless you're talking precious metals, or the central banks / reserve currency that backs all the value up. How often is value shipped internationally? Probably not very often unless there's a load of gold or cash? So in my opinion XRP can pick up a very large percentage of forex and payments markets internationally, more than anyone else, > 50% if you guys are the fastest and cheapest player in the world, even if it touches XRP Ledger indirectly through numerous ledgers via ILP, or at the settlement level.... 

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4 hours ago, Dennis said:

 but I don't think anyone is saying "$5.3 trillion / 100bn = XRP's future price."

That's exactly what some people are saying and I'm one of them :P

 

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4 hours ago, gutsu001 said:

I think one more point to add is....because email is so cheap and fast, people send it more often compared to postal mail. 

If you apply the same concept, people will conduct more payments/transactions as it is cheaper and faster (small value payments) which will increase the volumes and create new markets/demand. 

This is an outstanding point that is quite understated.  Anyone with Venmo can truly understand.

Edited by aye-epp

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