Jump to content
s1buell

Rough Ride Ahead

Recommended Posts

48 minutes ago, Texaschris said:

Hit their web page and check out the individual back grounds.....write it down on a sheet of paper, and remove the fluff...just names, and where they came from and what they did....then wait for the lightbulb.  (in other words, yes, I see this so far beyond cross border remittance.  That market is the proverbial inch....)

Just chiming in to say THIS, so THIS. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, Texaschris said:

Ripple isn't talking about it, and I hate to be that guy (because hodor is so good at it) but, because ripple is so low key we have to extrapolate their intent by who they gathered (the team) and the size of their target market(s).

Hit their web page and check out the individual back grounds.....write it down on a sheet of paper, and remove the fluff...just names, and where they came from and what they did....then wait for the lightbulb.  (in other words, yes, I see this so far beyond cross border remittance.  That market is the proverbial inch....)
 

So the starting point for estimating eventual value:

(Swift yearly total/ XRP float) 

(1.27 quadrillion / 100bn) = 1270.00

This is a very rudimentary approach, and a gross over simplification, but it gives us a vantage point from which to appreciate the size of the market....which is scientific terms, is fuuuuu ken yewj.  The reason this occurred to me is that in their own words, they want banks and FI's to hold "piles of XRP."

No bank or FI will hold an instrument, as a store of value, that some dude in a basement with moms credit card could manipulate....so even if I'm wrong, the value post-implementation still has to be very high (to provide stability). 

 

....and this all assumes success...which....I admit.....isn't really very likely.  They are up against the behemoth. The old guard and the old money, which has spent the last 100 years making sure that nothing like this could happen, and they are very, very good at that.

 

Time will tell.


 

Yeah when I saw their roster I immediately shifted my perspective. This was a while ago. Frankly, it's one of the things that got me interested at all. 

And frankly why I'm more interested in Ripple than any other crypto. I also don't have enough time to figure out what the other ones are. But this one makes sense to me, with my limited knowledge. 

So!

Indeed. Time will tell. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Hodlezerper said:

Yeah when I saw their roster I immediately shifted my perspective. This was a while ago. Frankly, it's one of the things that got me interested at all. 

And frankly why I'm more interested in Ripple than any other crypto. I also don't have enough time to figure out what the other ones are. But this one makes sense to me, with my limited knowledge. 

So!

Indeed. Time will tell. 

To continue the point about Ripple's roster and to link it to the concern about SWIFT, "the behemoth", this is a quote from Ripple Insights where they introduce -

"Marjan Delatinne, who will join us as the Sales Director for Europe. Delatinne will lead our sales efforts for financial institutions in Europe. She will sell Ripple’s commercial blockchain solution to banks looking to offer more competitive cross-border payment services and to join Ripple’s growing global network.

Delatinne joins us from SWIFT where she worked for ten years, most recently in charge of selling their Global Payments Innovation (gpi) offering. She also led EMEA customer engagement for SWIFT gpi." 

They ask her-

"What initially interested you about Ripple?

"My previous experiences convinced me that the financial industry is in dire need of technology that facilitates faster payments. The industry is looking for modern payments solutions which are built on the latest technology, not outdated infrastructure. Ripple understands how banks function and has adapted to serve them, whereas the incumbents have lost touch with what banks and banks’ customers really want."

I think this is important insight from someone well informed about SWIFT's capabilities and inability to move forward quickly. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, ObservantOne said:

To continue the point about Ripple's roster and to link it to the concern about SWIFT, "the behemoth", this is a quote from Ripple Insights where they introduce -

"Marjan Delatinne, who will join us as the Sales Director for Europe. Delatinne will lead our sales efforts for financial institutions in Europe. She will sell Ripple’s commercial blockchain solution to banks looking to offer more competitive cross-border payment services and to join Ripple’s growing global network.

Delatinne joins us from SWIFT where she worked for ten years, most recently in charge of selling their Global Payments Innovation (gpi) offering. She also led EMEA customer engagement for SWIFT gpi." 

They ask her-

"What initially interested you about Ripple?

"My previous experiences convinced me that the financial industry is in dire need of technology that facilitates faster payments. The industry is looking for modern payments solutions which are built on the latest technology, not outdated infrastructure. Ripple understands how banks function and has adapted to serve them, whereas the incumbents have lost touch with what banks and banks’ customers really want."

I think this is important insight from someone well informed about SWIFT's capabilities and inability to move forward quickly. 

I think you are right.....that said....it may not be enough.  Not trying to be FUD guy, but SWIFT being the bureaucratically entrenched standard is a giant obstacle.  If every great idea bore fruit because it was great, the world would be so different.

Ripple to me is like Nikola Tesla (we all know how that ended :/ )....though there is a key difference in the comparison.  The thing denied Tesla, which may prove to be the keystone in Ripple's success, is awareness.  Though it may (often) seem otherwise, we have never been more intelligent as a global people.  We have never at any point in history had so much information, so readily available, to so many. 

If ever there has been a perfect storm for a financial revolution, it was nothing near as perfect as the situation exists today. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't agree with the Tesla analogy, but I certainly see your point and agree with your sentiment, SWIFT may pose a significant obstacle.  

However, I think the way Ripple has positioned themselves with other large and well entrenched organizations (Bank of England, noting that Marcus Treacher also being independent non-executive director of CHAPS Co, the UK’s RTGS clearing company, where he chairs the CHAPS Security committee & User Group, for one - he also  chaired SWIFT’s global advisory body for corporates from 2010 to 2016 ) shows their business prowess in my mind. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, ObservantOne said:

I don't agree with the Tesla analogy, but I certainly see your point and agree with your sentiment, SWIFT may pose a significant obstacle.  

However, I think the way Ripple has positioned themselves with other large and well entrenched organizations (Bank of England, noting that Marcus Treacher also being independent non-executive director of CHAPS Co, the UK’s RTGS clearing company, where he chairs the CHAPS Security committee & User Group, for one - he also  chaired SWIFT’s global advisory body for corporates from 2010 to 2016 ) shows their business prowess in my mind. 

110%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Hodlezerper said:

Makes sense.

Would you say that's primarily due to any of these?

A. Branding: bitcoin is the big name and therefore is the mental entry point for a lot of people?

B. More crypto money is in the market place and therefore comes from bitcoin as the market moves money around from within its own market (crypto)

C. It's quite tough during the gold rush to actually purchase XRP directly (could take a couple weeks, disincluding if people are moving around more traditional assets to buy new assets) in other words, people want to get it NOW, so they buy crypto with PayPal, credit card, etc via places like coinbase or changelly.

D. (Insert your answer here)

 

E. a combination of all of the above.

 

F. Aliens

(First time poster long time lurker.)

One of the biggest problems with the crypto space is that most of the people operating within it, and especially those investing in it for the long term, have a limited view of how tiny a percentage of the population actually knows what a blockchain is. The average person has no idea what a blockchain is. They've probably heard of bitcoin because it's been on the news lately, but most likely they associate it with hacking. They almost certainly don't know what the Ethereum Foundation and ether are. And 99% for sure they have no idea what Ripple and XRP are.

So, while we tend to look at everything pragmatically and logically, weighing product developments against the current market price and looking for trends and indications of where things are moving, these actually don't have much to do with how things move. The reality is that everything tracks pretty closely to bitcoin because cryptocurrency = bitcoin, for the large majority of intents and purposes.

This has become especially true as huge quantities of capital have entered the crypto markets in the last few months in response to the sudden, massive, and largely unjustified price increases of ETH and XRP. Most of these investors have limited to zero knowledge about the technologies they are investing in. This is especially true of XRP, which because it was so cheap was seen like a penny stock by many--and this perspective is largely responsible for the ATH of 0.42 and the subsequent correction. The same is true of ETH. So while those of us who have invested in XRP and other coins very early saw the price increases as justified responses to improvements in the technology and real-world use cases, that perspective is actually totally wrong, because the price increases were a market bubble not unlike the dot com boom.

The difference, however, is that the dot com boom consumed the entire U.S. stock market, whereas the recent crypto boom consumed only the crypto markets. However, now that the average retail investor has heard of cryptocurrencies, and cryptocurrency hedge funds are popping up faster than anyone can count (I believe 54 filed with the SEC in the past month), the amount of capital about to enter the market is orders of magnitude larger than what we saw from April to now. And because cryptocurrency = bitcoin, most of that capital is likely to enter bitcoin, or will at least pass through bitcoin before being exchanged into ETH, LTC, XRP, etc.

Pair this with Segwit and there is basically a perfect storm for a new bubble that will be insane. Again, while most of us who invested in cryptocurrency from early on are aware of what's happening with bitcoin, the average person that's looking at cryptocurrency now has no idea what's on the horizon. Educated investors trying to react logically to complex technology developments and uneducated investors reacting emotionally to complex technology developments, with billions of fiat sloshing around and with no regulatory oversight, is going to lead to almost constant uncertainty. But no matter what happens, bitcoin is almost definitely going to control the movement of all cryptocurrency until much later this year if not into next year.

Edited by r_bachman

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow they are starting to bash the two of the big three. They left ripple out.

 

The first version of Tezo's is yet to launch despite this it has garnered interest from some of the industries, major investors. Tezos describes itself as a digital currency with smart contract and self-governance capabilities. The fundraiser comes at a time when bitcoin is suffering due to its governance structure. Which has caused years of infighting over which scaling solution to adopt. Ethereum has also had its troubles regarding scalability during the recent ICO boom. This has set the scene for Tezos and it will be interesting to see how it will stack up against the two dominant cryptocurrencies.

Guys on on anther note about swift.... etc

I move money all the time using the old legacy systems. When I move money I have two options Swift or WU. Both are slow and expensive. Ans I never know how much money will arive on the other side. Whats stopping the banks from adding a third option? Seriously....

  • One that is fast
  • Client is not double billed (Billed to send and revive (I lost 100UDS on one order just last week).
  • Client knows what amount will actually arrive at the receiver (happen to may two weeks ago)
  • etc

The current system is seriously in need of an overhaul. For you guys in the western world might not feel the pain. But live, work in areas like Brazil, China and Japan. Try to move money from Canada to Brazil, China or Brazil to China. Its a nightmare.

I live this everyday.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/13/2017 at 5:35 AM, Guest DntRgeQt said:

People try too hard in an unpredictable Market that is only  going upwards no matter how many dips.  Holding has never lost me a dime.. Even when bitcoin crashed the first time. I was still a holder.

“Our favorite holding period is forever.” warren buffet

 

Be one of us.

Totally true. I'd be happy to see it tank to 0.00005 or lower. I'm in for the next 5-10 years and started last week. Just going to keep on buying as low as I can.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...