Rialto.AI Is it worth investing

[NattyD]

Looking at Rialto.ai it looks promising with lot of PhD guyz working on it. I wanted to know whether this buying and selling off exchanges is based on ai work. We see all the time how charts and forecasting of values fail. 

Edited July 2, 2017 by NattyD

[mec1988]

copying my post here, hope I'm not breaking the rules:

Anyone getting in on this?  I'm still trying to figure out how much they could possibly make in each 6-month span between disbursements to XRL holders.  I think I'm going to invest USD $1,000 equivalent.  With that, it looks like I would hold .000777% of the total XRL.  They say here (https://medium.com/@RialtoAI/hi-esen-264d0bd1d381) that they "see the return of 21% on the volume available as the watermark for the first month with Sharpe Ratio over 3."  I just don't know what volume available they're talking about (I think in the white paper that it said ~$4m is liquid).  Well, if my guess of a return of 21% on $4m is correct then, after six months, they will have made $5.04M.  My 0.000777% stake would give me a return of $3,916.  This seems too good to be true.  Someone please tell me I'm missing something here.  The priority sale starts in 1.5 days

[NattyD]

all these calculations are based on views that they will never go wrong. I think that is difficult to digest. 

[mec1988]

I know... but if you look here, you can see a sample of the trades they have made - https://www.rialto.ai/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Appendix2.pdf   I'm just wondering if they have scaled their view correctly and if the disparity between markets will continue for the long term.

[ML933]

I'm in favor of the additional liquidity they'll provide, but these exchanges are fickle.  I've tried trading & have had limited success playing the volatility, growing my XRP postion by 9%.  But..that's been more playing on TA & price swings/surges.  If I hit bids or take offers, they don't always go through.  GateHub is not listed on their sheet because it's a very hokey system prone to freezing up.  I prefer the security of GateHub, but it's not good for trading.  Bitfinex feels legit, with decent liquidity.  But they'll give up a 0.2% rake for arb vs 0.1% rake by bettering markets & adding depth to the book.  The transaction fees will erode margins & arbitrage should only become more difficult at these exchanges propagate/mature.  Everything should tighten up with time.  I'm fairly certain there's no way they'll see close to a 21% return.  They mention having huge theoretical knowledge, but I think they're lacking on the practical side.  I think I read they keep 25% of the coins - I do expect them to have a successful auction.  There are much worse whitepapers that made bank.  You could still make money in the short-term, even if they can't deliver projected results.

I wouldn't be opposed to put a little skin in the game to better track them & as a short-term play, but XRP has far more potential in my opinion & you essentially sacrifice somewhere to establish a new position.  BTC, ETH are my hedges & IOTA is my longer term moonshot.  All of these other ICOs feel like the racetrack.  But there's money to make if you pick the right horse...

[Rebo]

Well I took the plunge and invested.

I just want to check that I have done it correctly though.

I entered MyEtherwallet address and saved

On Gatehub I sent my payment (Instant) to the Xrp address and included the Destination Tag code specified on the site.

 

Is this correct?

That was my first Crypto-payment ever so I am not sure if Rialto send confirmation for the receipt of payment, I haven't received one?

 

This CryptoCurrency investment lark has been a learning curve and a half over the last week for me, but I think I am getting there, or I may have just been taught a £150 lesson ?

[DarthTrader]

@Rebo Did it the same way

[Rebo]

Thanks for confirming.

[Professor Hantzen]

@mec1988

I read the paper.  IMO, if they were able to make money trading in the manner they've described, they wouldn't need investment.  They seem to be saying "we've got something profitable, and now we need money to make it profitable!".  This of course, makes no sense.  If it's profitable, trade it and reinvest your profits - your exponential gains from this will take of themselves, surely?  And for God's sake if you've found a successful arbitrage strategy, don't go telling everyone about it - you'll only create competition which will eat at your profits.

I also checked out the previous publications of the two tasked with creating the trading algorithms.  None of their prior publications are in the field of finance or trading which is a bit concerning.

That said, ICO's are so hot right now if they structure it so it doesn't matter how well they trade and all that matters is how high the price of their token gets pumped, you could still make money.  A gain of 4x in six months is not at all too good to be true in ICO's.  Here's a recent list of ICO's and the amounts they've returned since inception:  https://icostats.com/roi-since-ico

As you can see, far better returns than 400% are regularly available, and if you'd simply bought an equal amount of each of these 45 ICO's indiscriminately at launch and without any research or concern for their fundamentals, you'd have made 53x your investment at the time of writing.

To be clear, I'm not suggesting you invest indiscriminately in ICO's... just intending to provide context.

[enrique11]

 

[Coroneus]

Well I took the plunge and invested.
I just want to check that I have done it correctly

If you sent BTC, go to https://blockexplorer.com/ and put in the receiving wallet's address. If you did it right, the transaction should show up.

[enrique11]

5 minutes ago, Coroneus said:

 

If you sent BTC, go to https://blockexplorer.com/ and put in the receiving wallet's address. If you did it right, the transaction should show up.

It's great that they accept BTC.   How long did you have to wait to receive invitation to presale after subscribing?

[Coroneus]

11 minutes ago, enrique11 said:

It's great that they accept BTC.   How long did you have to wait to receive invitation to presale after subscribing?

I subscribed a couple of weeks ago and got the invitation this morning. The pre-sale began today, so I'm not sure if they would have sent the invitation earlier.

[knull]

15 minutes ago, enrique11 said:

It's great that they accept BTC.   How long did you have to wait to receive invitation to presale after subscribing?

Took about 10 minutes for me.

[enrique11]

5 minutes ago, Magicarp said:

Took about 10 minutes for me.

How long ago did you sub?