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World Economic Forum predictions

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I started reading about COMIT¹ and noticed an interesting quote:

Quote

The World Economic Forum is even going as far as predicting that 10% of the global GDP will be stored on the blockchain in less than 10 years.

This prediction was made in 2015. So, just for fun, let's extrapolate a little.

Right now the GWP (Gross World Product) is at $74T in nominal terms² and it's grown by 4% a year for the past 10 years.³

So, looking 10 years into the future at 4% growth per year, we arrive at $74T * (1.04^10) = $110T.

All cryptocurrencies are now worth more than $100B.⁴

At the time of writing, XRP is worth ~$0.27 per coin, or $27B in total if you count all 100B coins. If you count only the 38B coins in circulation right now, that gives it roughly a $10B market cap. So, let's call it 10% of the total crypto market.

Assuming the market cap of each coin stays exactly where it is relative to the total cap (i.e. the rising tide raises all boats equally), and we see the total cap grow to be 10% of the GWP as the WEF predicts...

That means the total crypto market will be worth $110T * 10% = $11T.

If XRP is still 10% of the market, that gives each coin a valuation of ($11T * 0.1) / 100B = $11 (assuming by that point all 100B coins will be out of escrow and circulating).

This doesn't account for any growth relative to other cryptocurrencies.

Thoughts?

 

Sources:

1: http://www.comit.network/doc/COMIT white paper v1.0.2.pdf

2: http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/year/2016/

3: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_world_product

4: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/with-bitcoin-surge-cryptocurrencies-top-100-billion-in-market-capitalization-2017-06-06

Edited by RipAndDip

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Guest

Some solid analysis here, not that far fetched from any perspective. However, economic or technological predictions tend to be pretty much wild guesses. I'm alive long enough to have heard similar predictions about flying cars in the year 2000 or how computers will make paper obsolete (the fabled paperless office) or how oil should have been irrelevant 15 years ago. I'm not saying this prediction is one of them, just pointing out the proverbial grain of salt one should take things with.

I personally would more likely see a scenario of many coins dying a painful death (regulation, market becoming more mature, etc.) in the coming 5 years, with only few remaining and gaining in value massively, XRP being one of them because of their use case edge. By this logic maybe even BTC may perish or become atomized into many sub-coins (segwits and the like). In other words, this crypto rush we are currently experiencing reminds me a lot of the dot com bubble of the early 2000's. Millions of websites generated tons of investment capital, some literally only because they had nice graphics or even only promised they would eventually, but only a few survived the following downturn in investor enthusiasm to become massive players later on - Google being a prime example.

Just my two cents.

Similar opinion here - https://medium.com/@LyleCantor/a-tour-of-the-ethereum-token-bubble-493c489bd0ea

Edited by Guest
adding info

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A digital currency in which encryption techniques are used to regulate the generation of units of currency and verify the transfer of funds, operating independently of a central bank. The decentralized control of each cryptocurrency works through a blockchain, which is a public transaction database, functioning as a distributed ledger. Currencies are easily used to transfer the balance between the parties in transactions. These transfers go around the use of public and private encryption keys for security purposes. The transfer of balances ends with lower processing fees, allowing users to avoid sharp shipping fees from most banks and financial institutions. The first Cryptocurrency is Bitcoin which is created by a guy or an organization called Satoshi Nakamoto (Identity is still unknown). Bitcoin is legal in Japan. Other countries are still studying about its potential and threats to the economy. 

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