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Market Conditions - May 31st, 2017 12.45 PM EDT

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3 minutes ago, TerraDaddy said:

Just curious, how do you calculate probabilities in last section. My emotional self wants to say good report. However I feel there should be sources cited.

Thats just me.

yes - Purposely did not provide sources for today's report as all sources for today's report are from  coinmarketcap, Ripplefox aggregator and charts from 6 exchanges ( Polo/Bitstamp/bittrex/kraken/btc38 & coinone ) 

Hope that helps. 

 

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Great job analyzing the current market condition.  Very appreciative of your time and knowledge.

Just a couple of questions.

How do you weigh-in the downtrend line on the daily chart and the MACD?  

How important are the resolution of these factors before XRP can go higher?

Thanks.

Edited by taebuoytogI

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23 minutes ago, stecha66 said:

finanally something worth reading on this forum..

There is a lot worth reading. For instance, have a look at the posts by Ripple employee JoelKatz https://www.xrpchat.com/profile/30-joelkatz/content/

My personal opinion for whoever cares (note I'm no expert): We are already at near base level, I don't see XRP dropping below 19c unless some really catastrophic incident occurs in the cryptomarkets (and no signs that will for me). When the uptrend clearly continues and general cryptomarket is optimistic with new people joining, combined with some positive Ripple news, I think it will be very hard to drop below 20 cent ever again. In other words, as an investor who wants a gain within a year, this is a good enough moment for me or to recommend friends. Better than many normal stocks imo. The panicselling we already had indicates a bit where the line is between holders vs daytraders imo. Again, just personal speculation. The only condition to this is that Ripple keeps actively busy with improving XRP markets, and seeing they add many new (big) exchanges and offering new XRP related job hires, and the things they say in interviews and their involvement here at xrpchat, conferences etc etc gives me enough confidence they want to make something useful with XRP Ledger.

@R8 thanks for the report as usual

Edited by edwin90

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Just now, edwin90 said:

There is a lot worth reading. For instance, have a look at the posts by Ripple employee JoelKatz https://www.xrpchat.com/profile/30-joelkatz/content/

My personal opinion for whoever cares (note I'm no expert): We are already at near base level, I don't see XRP dropping below 19c unless some really catastrophic incident occurs in the cryptomarkets (and no signs that will for me). When the uptrend clearly continues and general cryptomarket is optimistic with new people joining, combined with some positive Ripple news, I think it will be very hard to drop below 20 cent ever again. In other words, as an investor who wants a gain within a year, this is a good enough moment for me or to recommend friends. Better than many normal stocks imo. The panicselling we already had indicates a bit where the line is between holders vs daytraders imo. Again, just personal speculation.

@R8 thanks for the report as usual

thanks and Yes i agree, this forum is full of great content. I often make sure to reference and request people to read them on this forum instead of retyping things. Ex : "facts are all over this forum, with latest developments and documents to verify for everybody." 

 

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20 minutes ago, taebuoytogI said:

Great job analyzing the current market condition.  Very appreciative of your time and knowledge.

Just a couple of questions.

How do you weigh-in the downtrend line on the daily chart and the MACD?  

How important are the resolution of these factors before XRP can go go higher?

Thanks.

Really good question. after much study i have come to realize that the weighing period is shorter for crypto market - which ended up making perfect sense because the weighing period gets shorter as the market is more immature, irrational, volatile and sentiments play higher ratio. and once the period is derived, often we have to adjust it depending on what we are looking for ( long term / short term / or clubbed to some fundamental events etc ). 

later we can use indicators and co-relate. While i differ my usage, in today's case i used  MACD yes, but along with co-related Momentum Oscillator,  Bollinger Bandwidth ( not band ) , and lastly Ehler Fisher Transform - which acts as second level verifier for momentum stats. 

payment1.png.c6f2f58bac26b71122e8a4c68bb3a93e.pngpayment2.png.67114e44eda34c90f062bfc1469e5f2a.pngpayment3.png.0bf4998c9a93c041829505bb761efbc5.pngpayment4.png.3410ad483429b249456029cfd018075d.png

and with that , applied for the weighing period, for this report , the chart shoudl look something like the following: 

payment5.thumb.png.371f57ea5fd25f7ab0406b1fb22992d8.png

I wont go into details, but rightly done, we can see how one confirms the other and acts as a double strength confirmation for further nodes. 

Hope that helps. and regarding your second question, Once again every factor is different, and we have to weigh it in a relative model, where we shoudl include as many weighing variables as we possibly can. the more the better and accurate. So its not a simple constant every single time. 

Its best to divide them into categories and then further represent them with a hash-table each for mapping, where weights can be dynamically determined.  At this point one shoudl definitely use tools. 

 

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I've attached this image as to show the important steps that XRP must make in the next few days if we wish to see it appreciate.

1. Clearing the downtrend line(s) 

2. Crossing the 13 day EMA

3. Moving upward (or deceleration) on the MACD and Ehler Fisher Transform (thanks R8).

 

Anyone with greater technical analysis expertise please weigh-in...

Bitstamp XRP 5312017.PNG

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