Market Conditions - May 31st, 2017 12.45 PM EDT

[Chan_Maddanna 1,883]

** Disclaimer 01 : This is my personal opinion only 
** Disclaimer 02 : This is NOT Trading advice, if you use, at your own risk. I myself don't trade regularly, and this is part my new market learning experience
** Disclaimer 03 : To remind a general market sentiment, do NOT trade with funds you cannot afford to lose. Novice markets are always very turbulent until mass adoption and maturity. Definitely NOT for the faint hearted.  

** Important Note : NO information in this post is intended to aid short term/ day and/or swing trading. All summary projections are from few months to a few years in range. 
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Summary
~~~~~~~

The previous post, concluded clearly that in short-term, XRP was at cross-roads waiting for further signal to decide movement, momentum and direction. This possibility was weighted at a high rate of 68% and has indeed materialized.

one important note at this point is to remind all my friends here, these are not predictions & are more of prognosis based on current market conditions shown by market activity. in other words this is a apparent probability and not a crystal ball. many times they work, many times some unexpected event changes the course. 

with that said,  I have been studying a few events and co-relating them to get a better picture. the results have been very interesting & form key content of today's report.

 

VERY important insight from May 26/27th+ BTC Sell-off
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

PRE    Sell-Off BTC Average Market share = ( 52.27% of 80.5 Billion USD ) = 42.07 Billion USD
POST Sell-Off BTC Average Market share has stabilized @ ( 45.67% of 76.7 Billion USD ) = 35.02 Billion USD

Conclusion 1: total money invested in BTC today is 7.09 Billion USD less. 

 Where did this money go ? 

  Lets see, the only dominant asset that has increased in its market share is ETH. 

• PRE    Sell-Off ETH Average Market share = ( 19.80% of 80.5 Billion USD ) = 15.93 Billion USD
• POST Sell-Off ETH Average Market share has stabilized @ ( 25.92% of 76.7 Billion USD ) =  19.88 Billion USD

  So, ETH share has increased by 3.95 Billion USD. 

 Did all of this come from BTC money ? 

• Nope, (13.71% of 80.5) - (11.40% of 76.7) =  11.04 - 8.74 =  2.3 Billion USD has flown from XRP to ETH. Ignoring the change money from other coins moving backward as it is not going to change the meaning of the equations, we can Conclude : out of 7.09 Billion BTC money, Only 1.65 Billion USD has flown into ETH (also others, but negligible) .

 

INSIGHT 1  :  5.44 Billion USD worth of money from BTC is gone for good (at-least for the time being). BTC market share is shrinking, while people are misled to the illusion of its price. It is very clear some some planned group of BTC investors have liquidated and en-cashed their FIAT. All the while managing to keep the BTC price relatively stable. 

How is this possible? 
while market share reduces but the prices are kept somewhat high.. very simple and very mathematical - somewhere the supply is being temporarily reduced. Someone is taking this risk hoping enough new investors will come in time. 

Who can this be ?  
This cannot be an ordinary investor nor this is looking like a organic pattern. so this HAS to be someone with systemic holdings. hence, I personally think this is either a large holder or a large mining group.  

This is very important to understand, BTC is in a mirage with nice prices to show off, but is getting hollowed & emptied from within.  whoever is enabling this, is hoping for lots of new investors to fill in over time, and holding back supply till then. IF enough new investors don't show up - they WILL BE FORCED increase supply sometime. Everything depends upon how LONG they can hold and play this game. 

perhaps they will hold supply for enough length of time for prices to stabilize ... 50% chances at best ... and the other 50% is they will fail. hope BTC investors out there, especially the new ones do not become the sacrificial lamb. I wish safety. 

 

Now lets get back to XRP
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By now it is aptly clear that XRP trends were changed by influences not core to XRP fundamentals or outlook. Largely comprising of BTC Selloff & Volatility,  post consensus ETH outlook appreciation & general nature of crypto space. 

However, XRP fundamentals are literally unchanged and if anything have greatly improved with recent demos bringing XRP's payment potential to limelight. Only thing is there is a lag in realization. Seems like some potential is easy to understand but some are in a way a bit more abstract and the "masses" take time to "get it". 

But history is proof, awareness bursting out is purely a function with time variant. At some point every bit of this revealed potential will get full attention. In short, if you guys being core community understand it before others do, its your early-bird opportunity right there. and I am not even guessing on this. facts are all over this forum, with latest developments and documents to verify for everybody.

 

Finally time for some technicals
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since 31st of May 6 AM. - at last XRP has started to strengthen albeit slowly, but in a stable manner. The following is the key and important summary on XRP markets:

• Clearly the process of taking strategic positions in XRP has "resumed".  
• Market cap has resumed its uptrend from 9.70 to 10.80, an increase by 0.384 Billion USD ( 384 Million USD ).
• This strengthening is almost entirely contributed by USD Fiat. 
• The other currencies investing in XRP are Euro and JPY. 
• The currencies that are withdrawing and reducing their share in XRP markets are CNY & BTC, while KRW has been literally constant (in a surprising manner). 
   

What does it say about XRP ?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

• For once it is really great to see, XRP being held well merely with the support of EURO and USD.
• This means its dependence on BTC is slowly but very surely decreasing in a linear fashion.
• At the current rate of decrease, in less then 14 months BTC will lose almost all of its power to influence XRP. 
• New US and Japan money is indeed flowing into the markets and recent data has clearly confirmed it ( no need to speculate).

Key Takeaway: in some ways this has taken off much fear from me personally, when i see a panic sell next time, i know XRP can hold itself very well, in-spite of some negative influences from BTC and others. further most certainly, it is not going to collapse, but merely suffer a significant price drop perhaps. It is opportunities like this that reveal relatively "more fundamental" strength in an asset.

Probabilities:
~~~~~~~~~

>> There is a 65% probability that XRP will improve the current strengthening process & continue gradual uptrend to 29/30 cents range to form a 'base'. 
>> there is a 30 % probability that XRP will arrest its strengthening process and initiate a gradual;l downtrend to 14 cents. 
>> there is only 5% probability that XRP will drop below 14 cents.

*** It is very hard -  to maintain perspective during sentiment shifts, to stay in the central calm during the storm,  to act on fundamentals during panic selloff's, and to separate signals from noise. time and again those who rely on the underlying use-cases & fundamentals always ride the storm and come out winning. I wish all of us good luck. ***


Kindly,
R8

[stecha66 41]

well done R8102V1D2D

[stecha66 41]

finanally something worth reading on this forum..

[smoothy 721]

As always : great!

[TerraDaddy 21]

Just curious, how do you calculate probabilities in last section. My emotional self wants to say good report. However I feel there should be sources cited.

Thats just me.

[FilippoSole 82]

I always wait for your Market Conditions posts, great job, thank you!!!! ?

[Chan_Maddanna 1,883]

3 minutes ago, TerraDaddy said:

Just curious, how do you calculate probabilities in last section. My emotional self wants to say good report. However I feel there should be sources cited.

Thats just me.

yes - Purposely did not provide sources for today's report as all sources for today's report are from  coinmarketcap, Ripplefox aggregator and charts from 6 exchanges ( Polo/Bitstamp/bittrex/kraken/btc38 & coinone ) 

Hope that helps. 

 

[taebuoytogI 107]

Great job analyzing the current market condition.  Very appreciative of your time and knowledge.

Just a couple of questions.

How do you weigh-in the downtrend line on the daily chart and the MACD?  

How important are the resolution of these factors before XRP can go higher?

Thanks.

Edited May 31, 2017 by taebuoytogI

[mike91 524]

23 minutes ago, stecha66 said:

finanally something worth reading on this forum..

There is a lot worth reading. For instance, have a look at the posts by Ripple employee JoelKatz https://www.xrpchat.com/profile/30-joelkatz/content/

My personal opinion for whoever cares (note I'm no expert): We are already at near base level, I don't see XRP dropping below 19c unless some really catastrophic incident occurs in the cryptomarkets (and no signs that will for me). When the uptrend clearly continues and general cryptomarket is optimistic with new people joining, combined with some positive Ripple news, I think it will be very hard to drop below 20 cent ever again. In other words, as an investor who wants a gain within a year, this is a good enough moment for me or to recommend friends. Better than many normal stocks imo. The panicselling we already had indicates a bit where the line is between holders vs daytraders imo. Again, just personal speculation. The only condition to this is that Ripple keeps actively busy with improving XRP markets, and seeing they add many new (big) exchanges and offering new XRP related job hires, and the things they say in interviews and their involvement here at xrpchat, conferences etc etc gives me enough confidence they want to make something useful with XRP Ledger.

@R8 thanks for the report as usual

Edited May 31, 2017 by edwin90

[Chan_Maddanna 1,883]

Just now, edwin90 said:

There is a lot worth reading. For instance, have a look at the posts by Ripple employee JoelKatz https://www.xrpchat.com/profile/30-joelkatz/content/

My personal opinion for whoever cares (note I'm no expert): We are already at near base level, I don't see XRP dropping below 19c unless some really catastrophic incident occurs in the cryptomarkets (and no signs that will for me). When the uptrend clearly continues and general cryptomarket is optimistic with new people joining, combined with some positive Ripple news, I think it will be very hard to drop below 20 cent ever again. In other words, as an investor who wants a gain within a year, this is a good enough moment for me or to recommend friends. Better than many normal stocks imo. The panicselling we already had indicates a bit where the line is between holders vs daytraders imo. Again, just personal speculation.

@R8 thanks for the report as usual

thanks and Yes i agree, this forum is full of great content. I often make sure to reference and request people to read them on this forum instead of retyping things. Ex : "facts are all over this forum, with latest developments and documents to verify for everybody." 

 

[Artificer 232]

47 minutes ago, R8102V1D2D said:

Thank you for sharing your time and expertise for the benefit of all of us.

[Chan_Maddanna 1,883]

20 minutes ago, taebuoytogI said:

Great job analyzing the current market condition.  Very appreciative of your time and knowledge.

Just a couple of questions.

How do you weigh-in the downtrend line on the daily chart and the MACD?  

How important are the resolution of these factors before XRP can go go higher?

Thanks.

Really good question. after much study i have come to realize that the weighing period is shorter for crypto market - which ended up making perfect sense because the weighing period gets shorter as the market is more immature, irrational, volatile and sentiments play higher ratio. and once the period is derived, often we have to adjust it depending on what we are looking for ( long term / short term / or clubbed to some fundamental events etc ). 

later we can use indicators and co-relate. While i differ my usage, in today's case i used  MACD yes, but along with co-related Momentum Oscillator,  Bollinger Bandwidth ( not band ) , and lastly Ehler Fisher Transform - which acts as second level verifier for momentum stats. 

and with that , applied for the weighing period, for this report , the chart shoudl look something like the following: 

I wont go into details, but rightly done, we can see how one confirms the other and acts as a double strength confirmation for further nodes. 

Hope that helps. and regarding your second question, Once again every factor is different, and we have to weigh it in a relative model, where we shoudl include as many weighing variables as we possibly can. the more the better and accurate. So its not a simple constant every single time. 

Its best to divide them into categories and then further represent them with a hash-table each for mapping, where weights can be dynamically determined.  At this point one shoudl definitely use tools. 

 

[Kiir 435]

Nice read, kudos!

[Thefreshman 15]

I always look forward to your market predictions. On behalf of all of us, thank you for taking time out of your day to share!

[taebuoytogI 107]

I've attached this image as to show the important steps that XRP must make in the next few days if we wish to see it appreciate.

1. Clearing the downtrend line(s) 

2. Crossing the 13 day EMA

3. Moving upward (or deceleration) on the MACD and Ehler Fisher Transform (thanks R8).

 

Anyone with greater technical analysis expertise please weigh-in...