Valuation Models - XRP The Digital Currency Vs. Ripple the Company

[vanhalendlrband]

28 minutes ago, btald1331 said:

In my opinion its not realistic. Bitcoins total supply is a lot less than XRP. Bitcoin's supply is 21,000,000, XRP's is 100,000,000,000. Not accounting for the deflationary concept, that would mean your looking at a price around 21,000,000 BTC /100,000,000,000 XRP = .021%, or $2400 * .00021 = $.504. This purely math of the max supply of each currency. 

If you do the math off of the current circulating supply for a future prediction your looking at 16,353,025 BTC / 38,249,335,400 XRP = .042% or 2400 * .00042 = $1.008.

Not saying it won't go above $1 in 10 years, I believe it will. But this is just a direct comparison. 

Oh for sure if the supply stays the same.

I've been reading that 2 billion of the supply could be burned relatively quickly within a year or so. I forget where I read that now but if that's the case and the supply keeps going down, or even the possibility that it will go down to investors could drive the price higher for people wanting to get in before the supply gets down to the same as bitcoin which I think is possible within several years.

I know you were doin just math so I just threw that other variable in there of the burning supply. Maybe this will affect price differently in the long run?

[btald1331]

1 minute ago, vanhalendlrband said:

Oh for sure if the supply stays the same.

I've been reading that 2 billion of the supply could be burned relatively quickly within a year or so. I forget where I read that now but if that's the case and the supply keeps going down, or even the possibility that it will go down to investors could drive the price higher for people wanting to get in before the supply gets down to the same as bitcoin which I think is possible within several years.

I know you were doin just math so I just threw that other variable in there of the burning supply. Maybe this will affect price differently in the long run?

Agreed. It would really depend how much XRP will be burned. 

[vanhalendlrband]

1 minute ago, btald1331 said:

Agreed. It would really depend how much XRP will be burned. 

Its a very interesting coin indeed. I bought in at 700 might've lost some on margin but still got a fair chunk of that 700 sat XRP. I don't think I will ever sell it

Edited May 26, 2017 by vanhalendlrband

[Texaschris]

5 hours ago, btald1331 said:

Agreed. It would really depend how much XRP will be burned. 

You guys have no idea the numbers involved in the markets  that RIPPLE/XRP is jumping into......no idea.  They're astronomical.  In order to provide liquidity for that, and stability....the value per unit must increase accordingly.  There is no stability under triple digits. None.

[ObservantOne]

You guys have no idea the numbers involved in the markets  that RIPPLE/XRP is jumping into......no idea.  They're astronomical.  In order to provide liquidity for that, and stability....the value per unit must increase accordingly.  There is no stability under triple digits. None.

This! This right here! Speculate till your heart's content. The reality is you won't know until we are well underway.
Most people thought .30 was years out from today, and many more jumped on the train as we just picked up speed.
BTC falls a bit, people panic, alts suffer and people pullout. As far as I know, speculative investors are buying and holding while others are selling.
Supply and demand play a huge role. Imagine how much more demand there will be when the lockup is complete, and we achieve a wider adoption spread.
Coinone ran out of xrp a week and a half back. That tells you something.
Forget the burn rate for now, just think about what people are going to do when XRP REALLY starts to take off. You'll have your day traders, sure. But you'll also have your hodlers who have a deathgrip on their investment because we know that, one day, triple digits will be the norm.

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[toobhunter]

40 minutes ago, ObservantOne said:

This! This right here! Speculate till your heart's content. The reality is you won't know until we are well underway.
Most people thought .30 was years out from today, and many more jumped on the train as we just picked up speed.
BTC falls a bit, people panic, alts suffer and people pullout. As far as I know, speculative investors are buying and holding while others are selling.
Supply and demand play a huge role. Imagine how much more demand there will be when the lockup is complete, and we achieve a wider adoption spread.
Coinone ran out of xrp a week and a half back. That tells you something.
Forget the burn rate for now, just think about what people are going to do when XRP REALLY starts to take off. You'll have your day traders, sure. But you'll also have your hodlers who have a deathgrip on their investment because we know that, one day, triple digits will be the norm.

Sent from my XT1635-01 using Tapatalk
 

The lockup will not impact the demand as you allude to here.  The lockup leaves 6B available plus another 1B per month.  They previously released an avg of 300m per month pre-lockup.  With escalated prices, this will theoretically drop.  So there's certainly no lack of supply for time being.  

[Texaschris]

47 minutes ago, ObservantOne said:

This! This right here! Speculate till your heart's content. The reality is you won't know until we are well underway.
Most people thought .30 was years out from today, and many more jumped on the train as we just picked up speed.
BTC falls a bit, people panic, alts suffer and people pullout. As far as I know, speculative investors are buying and holding while others are selling.
Supply and demand play a huge role. Imagine how much more demand there will be when the lockup is complete, and we achieve a wider adoption spread.
Coinone ran out of xrp a week and a half back. That tells you something.
Forget the burn rate for now, just think about what people are going to do when XRP REALLY starts to take off. You'll have your day traders, sure. But you'll also have your hodlers who have a deathgrip on their investment because we know that, one day, triple digits will be the norm.

Sent from my XT1635-01 using Tapatalk
 

My speculation is done assuming the entire float in play, and _only_ what SWIFT pay can currently handle in a year.  That is excluding the additional 100bn/100trn dollar markets......

 

Not that it somehow means it's not speculation, it is, I hear ya.....but I'm not pulling numbers out of a hat to make myself feel better.  I'm also waiting for this downward trend to reverse (1 month graph tells all) because I'm not gonna get serious about a position until its under .15 again.

Edited May 27, 2017 by Texaschris

[ObservantOne]

27 minutes ago, toobhunter said:

The lockup will not impact the demand as you allude to here.  The lockup leaves 6B available plus another 1B per month.  They previously released an avg of 300m per month pre-lockup.  With escalated prices, this will theoretically drop.  So there's certainly no lack of supply for time being.  

Escalated priced due to what?

Supply. And. Demand. Speculators can only push the price so far. RL can't just say, "We want THIS price, regardless of the going rate!!" They wouldn't do that anyway as they are invested in the long-term, not into making a quick buck.

As soon as there is widespread adoption, you don't see demand as causing the price to go up? Think about when Apple pay and Google Pay (google is also invested in RL) start to use XRP. They would need a very large stash of it to accommodate their subscribers/customers. Demand. What do you think the price will do then?

 

[ObservantOne]

SWIFT handles trillions of dollars per year...with their outdated system.

SWIFT sells messaging software to banks. Ripple Labs ALSO sells software that does the same thing SWIFT's does. SWIFT JUST added GPI, so they can show you where your money is being held up. This does NOTHING to help your money move faster. Ripple Labs ALSO has a native, neutral asset, one that banks can readily adopt if they could pull their heads out-

Through the ILP/RCL, banks have an option to be positioned ahead of the pack (at this moment) if they would only listen, pilot and adopt. When enough banks get behind Ripple's plan, proving that it works AND is the BEST option out there, regulators are going to be put into a bind: allow SWIFT's antiquated system to run as it does while the rest of the world progresses, or jump on board!

A partnership with SWIFT would be best for Ripple in the long-run as SWIFT is already established, albeit SWIFT is in a very precarious situation: they might see RL as a competitor/threat where RL might be "poaching" clients and cutting into their "market share". My point is that SWIFT would do well to approach RL with open arms. If RL has software that is ready to be implemented, I would imagine that it wouldn't take much to put out an executable program that patches their digital ledgers, enabling them to use ILP. Update/Retrieve the transaction history, test the system and BOOM! Operational. If they partnered, SWIFT would just  need to make an announcement to all participating banks, let them know the deadline to integrate and offer support as needed. 

I hear people say things like, "It will be very difficult to get many banks to agree to use something like Ripple's product," or "It will take a massive amount of time to make that happen!" I disagree. There are many updates to security systems yearly, many of which people don't even have to deal with directly: Network administrators usually take care of this work behind the scenes/after hours. Day to day users will obviously need to be trained on how to use the system, and how it works. 

The mentality is akin to the whole Y2K dealio, where I was asked to install updates on the local school's computers so they wouldn't "crash". Back then, we had to do it all by hand, computer to computer. I don't really know why, but that is besides the point.

The setup that SWIFT currently has is insecure, and presents too much of a problem regarding future use. 

Let the spotlight shine on Ripple Labs, ladies and gentlemen.

 

So just imagine for a second the amount of money banks could process using Ripple Labs software through SWIFT partnerships...think about how much money the FOREX will be able to process....how much faster and efficient our stock markets will become....

Triple digits for sure. Just a matter of time.

[dhensdsg]

One revenue for Ripple and accelerate widespread adaption is to compete directly with Visa and Mastercard, having its own card called XRP CARD.

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[toobhunter]

33 minutes ago, ObservantOne said:

Escalated priced due to what?

Supply. And. Demand. Speculators can only push the price so far. RL can't just say, "We want THIS price, regardless of the going rate!!" They wouldn't do that anyway as they are invested in the long-term, not into making a quick buck.

As soon as there is widespread adoption, you don't see demand as causing the price to go up? Think about when Apple pay and Google Pay (google is also invested in RL) start to use XRP. They would need a very large stash of it to accommodate their subscribers/customers. Demand. What do you think the price will do then?

 

I did not and will not make any price predictions but i'm long XRP for many reasons.  I was simply pointing out (and I'm re-iterating this) that the lockup is not one of the reasons the price will rise as you alluded to.  if you want to talk about supply and demand, we can do that.  the lock-up creates no lack of supply.  period.  It leaves 6B XRP available for distribution and another 1B each month.  there's no lack of supply- its that simple.  end of argument. 

[ObservantOne]

2 hours ago, toobhunter said:

I did not and will not make any price predictions but i'm long XRP for many reasons.  I was simply pointing out (and I'm re-iterating this) that the lockup is not one of the reasons the price will rise as you alluded to.  if you want to talk about supply and demand, we can do that.  the lock-up creates no lack of supply.  period.  It leaves 6B XRP available for distribution and another 1B each month.  there's no lack of supply- its that simple.  end of argument. 

I like how final you are. "End of argument"? C'mon!

The rate of adoption by Banks and daughter banks, partnerships formed, investors in the private sector, attention in mainstream media...it is all increasing at an ever increasing rate! What happens when extremely wealthy people invest? Those billions can go pretty  quickly. They also reserve xrp to use strategically, so I don't see them holding no xrp at the end of the month. They need some revenue as well. 

I'm not saying that the lock-up will make the price go up, nor did I ever make a finalizing statement to solidify your assumption that I did. What I said was " Imagine how much more demand there will be when the lockup is complete, and we achieve a wider adoption spread" 

When we achieve wider adoption spread. 

The more people use it, the more they will speak of it. The more it is used, and the more it is held (for the long-term) the greater the demand will be. Do you assume that people in the banking industry don't talk to each other!? Of course people will share the news on how much they are saving because they switched to a system that Ripple Labs offers. 

When people's skepticism of this "monopoly" money subsides, and hear that their relatives actually made "real" money on their investments, expect an influx of people that will gradually increase. People aren't as stupid as we are brought up to believe. We all want to make money. News will spread, and BTC's dominance will fizzle out as XRP addresses a real-world problem. 

So, with an ever increasing interest in XRP and a limited supply for MM's/Exchanges, you don't think it is possible for us to "run out" of XRP to buy within a month?

You are either intentionally or unintentionally deluding yourself. There are millions of investors. There is a finite supply of XRP. It is deflationary. It is sorely needed. 

Now, was this an argument, or an opportunity to open your eyes?

Edited May 27, 2017 by ObservantOne
My italics and bolds weren't...italic and bold :)

[toobhunter]

24 minutes ago, ObservantOne said:

I like how final you are. "End of argument"? C'mon!

The rate of adoption by Banks and daughter banks, partnerships formed, investors in the private sector, attention in mainstream media...it is all increasing at an ever increasing rate! What happens when extremely wealthy people invest? Those billions can go pretty  quickly. They also reserve xrp to use strategically, so I don't see them holding no xrp at the end of the month. They need some revenue as well. 

I'm not saying that the lock-up will make the price go up, nor did I ever make a finalizing statement to solidify your assumption that I did. What I <i>said</i> was " Imagine how much more demand there will be when the lockup is complete, <b>and we achieve a wider adoption spread</b>." 

When we achieve wider adoption spread. 

The more people use it, the more they will speak of it. The more it is used, <i>and</i> the more it is held (for the long-term) the greater the demand will be. Do you assume that people in the banking industry don't talk to each other!? Of course people will share the news on how much they are saving because they switched to a system that Ripple Labs offers. Big plus+ on that one.

When people's skepticism of this "monopoly" money subsides, and hear that their relatives <i>actually</i> made "real" money on their investments, expect an influx of people that will gradually increase. People aren't as stupid as we are brought up to believe. We all want to make money. News will spread, and BTC's dominance will fizzle out as XRP addresses a real-world problem. 

So, with an ever increasing interest in XRP and a limited supply for MM's/Exchanges, you don't think it is possible for us to "run out" of XRP to buy within a month?

You are either intentionally or unintentionally deluding yourself. There are millions of investors. There is a finite supply of XRP. It is deflationary. It is sorely needed. 

Now, was this an argument, or an opportunity to open your eyes?

6

well, i do love your enthusiasm   

"I'm not saying that the lock-up will make the price go up." - OK good, I'm glad we agree now.  that was my whole point   

 

[ObservantOne]

3 minutes ago, toobhunter said:

well, i do love your enthusiasm   

"I'm not saying that the lock-up will make the price go up." - OK good, I'm glad we agree now.  that was my whole point   

 

I forgot to say "in and of itself". So, technically, we didn't agree.  sort of....just don't be upset. Life is too short to be upset. 

Glad you like the enthusiasm. 

[NattyD]

I like Joel is giving us insight into Ripple and XRP's vision and future. Would it be fair to say that people believing in this vision of Ripple are early investors of XRP. I do see the relation that if Ripple succeeds then it is logical to think that XRP's value will increase. 

Would it be sane to think that investors of XRP should be given some profit of Ripple releasing billions of XRP in the market ?  Like dividends. As loyal believers of Ripple and XRP is it in anyway possible to link Ripple and XRPs valuation.

Will Ripple's company equity value skyrocket and XRP holders may not benefit at all ?