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kyriediculous

Analysis: What can be the potential correction target

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Hi guys, although a little bit premature, I think we are close to the bottom as per the inverted head and shoulders pattern on the attached chart. We will go to $0.23/$0.24 and then rebound from there to ultimately go through the declining resistance line at $0.32 on our way to $0.5.
Please note that this is not trading advice, just my opinion.
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7 hours ago, xh3b4sd said:

I am interested in why you are using BTC as base for comparison. I see that quite often, but I don't understand it. I think USD or any other "stable" fiat would be way better for your graph pattern analysis. You are trying to measure the depth of the sea where the sea ground is not a flat area, but a rocky cliff. Your measurement is more or less useless because you get a different result every other measure point. The patterns are malformed as soon as your base surges or drops. Maybe I am ignorant, then please educate me. 

I have also no idea how many Satoshis are now one EUR. When I buy XRP I do it with EUR, not with BTC. That may be my personal thing though again. 

Agreed and I also appreciate the analysis done by @kyriediculous

In cryptos market, BTC is used as a quote currency, all cryptos are quoted by BTC. There may not be Fiat pairs but definitely there is BTC pair on any crytocurrency exchange. XRP/BTC still plays a big part in total XRP trade volume. Use polo as an example, majority of the ppl trade XRP/BTC. If we look at the chart, it shows xrp has been trending down hugely recently. Ppl will naturally think xrp's value is depreciating, then start panic selling. However, if we convert to USD, xrp holds quite steadily. 

I feel XRP/BTC chart can be a misleading reference to reflect the real value of xrp in some way on psychological level.

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9 hours ago, cy2017 said:

Agreed and I also appreciate the analysis done by @kyriediculous

In cryptos market, BTC is used as a quote currency, all cryptos are quoted by BTC. There may not be Fiat pairs but definitely there is BTC pair on any crytocurrency exchange. XRP/BTC still plays a big part in total XRP trade volume. Use polo as an example, majority of the ppl trade XRP/BTC. If we look at the chart, it shows xrp has been trending down hugely recently. Ppl will naturally think xrp's value is depreciating, then start panic selling. However, if we convert to USD, xrp holds quite steadily. 

I feel XRP/BTC chart can be a misleading reference to reflect the real value of xrp in some way on psychological level.

Sigh 


I give it up

 

Can't teach ignorant people  how market works
 

Edited by kyriediculous

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2 hours ago, kyriediculous said:

Sigh 


I give it up

 

Can't teach ignorant people  how market works
 

Am neither saying ur analysis is misleading nor trying to discredit ur work. Don't misunderstand me and don't give up. U can still teach the rest of the world.

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3 hours ago, cy2017 said:

Am neither saying ur analysis is misleading nor trying to discredit ur work. Don't misunderstand me and don't give up. U can still teach the rest of the world.

I've been saying that the dominant pair XRP is being decided by volume, at that point this is bitcoin.

End of the discussion, it's just the way markets work same like you have proxy pairs in forex.

Unless you accept that fact we will not find common ground on the matter I'm afraid.

Can XRP/Fiat become the dominant pair? Yes sure ! When banks start pushing commercial XRP solutions. 

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16 hours ago, kyriediculous said:

Can XRP/Fiat become the dominant pair? Yes sure ! When banks start pushing commercial XRP solutions. 

Yes. That's the mission of xrp, the reason for its existence and something that we all hope it can achieve in the near future.

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On 2017-5-26 at 11:24 AM, cy2017 said:

Yes. That's the mission of xrp, the reason for its existence and something that we all hope it can achieve in the near future.

But as long as we're not there yet and RCL volum doesn't overtake poloniex I'm trading on XRP/BTC. 

 I said before that XRP/USD or ETH/USD is affected by the BTCUSD price, which shows well today.

Eth/btc for example is down 0.075 to 0.066 , roughly 10% while eth/usd is down way more because of bitcoin weakness.

What can you do to protect yourself against this btc/usd weakness? When you're accumulating bitcoin and you see bitcoin overextended you can short to hedge your other holdings.

My target is coming closer, might even have to adjust lower to 4500 but I don't think so.

THere is also a possiblity of downtrending until summer is over.

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Thanks , this is not a guaranteed bottom though :) What we are looking for now is confirmation of a market bottom.

This means the RSI on the daily turning gray again combined with a bounce off of that blue dotted line, I Expect us to go sideways here and retest the bottom like we did last time.

If we break that blue dotted line I can see us going to 4500-5000 by the way. 

Chart : https://www.tradingview.com/x/TaYaUUVr/



 

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On 5/27/2017 at 6:07 PM, kyriediculous said:

But as long as we're not there yet and RCL volum doesn't overtake poloniex I'm trading on XRP/BTC. 

 I said before that XRP/USD or ETH/USD is affected by the BTCUSD price, which shows well today.

Eth/btc for example is down 0.075 to 0.066 , roughly 10% while eth/usd is down way more because of bitcoin weakness.

What can you do to protect yourself against this btc/usd weakness? When you're accumulating bitcoin and you see bitcoin overextended you can short to hedge your other holdings.

My target is coming closer, might even have to adjust lower to 4500 but I don't think so.

THere is also a possiblity of downtrending until summer is over.

I agree that bitcoin is still an optimal choice to majority ppl to fund their Cryptos trades on exchanges. The market proved that u correctly predicted the weakeness of xrp/btc, there is no argument on that. If you allow me to ask, I would really like to hear your thoughts behind your projection.

What led you to that prediction that xrp value would be weakened? The value of xrp itself? or the ongoing huge correction of btc? 

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I'm cautious with throwing what caused it. 

There is never one key thing, as a trader I look for setups. Combinations of both technicals, fundamentals and market psychology.

For the case of ripple you can say the following:
- Markets price in before facts (buy the rumour sell the news) , in this case it was the XRP lockup. Add to that that supply decrease compared to asset growth ratio was way too high above a certain point.
- The leg up above 15 000 satoshi was on very little new money coming in and lots of margin longs.It's the phase where market psychology wise greed kicks in.
- Ripple is scaling up in sales with an increase of 115% in sales hirings , other departments up 10-15%.  They got a new office, attend conferences etc. It's no secret that Ripple sells small amounts of their XRP to pay for growth of the company. They would want to do that before they implement the lockup of course.
- Kraken added 5x margin on XRP/FIAT pairs which adds to the greed but also to the despair afterwards.
- Technical analysis of the price, volume, momentum, market maker levels and the way economic markets move in cycles

Sell when euphoria hits and buy when there's blood in the streets, this is not a team game. Can't have morals when trading because the big players won't have any either, you can't play the game of soccer on one leg.

 

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Do note that I see myself as a trader, not investor. I actively trade my investments to increase the position size. 

I do however plan to use XRP as my main form of liquidity in the future where I will just have to hedge against certain movements and have a non inflationairy currency that is accepted for any fiat at good rates and instant delivery.

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On 5/25/2017 at 3:43 PM, pucksterpete said:

My name is Pete too.    Hold your XRP

Atm, you seem to have more wisdom than PeteWisdom :D 

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