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Blindsided -- Truth, Biases, and Why XRP is Undervalued

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1 minute ago, cmbartley said:

How much should pay for something has not current utility (other than art)?

triskelions have overtaken our schools, so I'd pay $5 for one.

 

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cmbartley:

The wealthiest individuals on this planet have amassed fortunes by investing diligently in potential. 

All great companies or investments are great ideas first. 

Take Facebook for example. In its infancy, what immediate utility did it have? Not much. But it had potential and people recognized that potential. The lucky ones were angel investors who got in early. Sure they were rolling the dice, but they saw enough evidence of potential utility that they made an investment. 

XRP is the same animal. What immediate utility does it have? Not as much as it could have. An investment in XRP is a calculated investment in potential utility. 

Trust me, once the utility becomes apparent, it will be far too late to make big profits. 

So the real question is how much will you pay for something that does not have significant utility now, but has an unbelievable amount of potential utility? The answer is you will pay a lot less than you will be paying once the potential utility becomes current utility. 

Nonetheless, I do respect your analytical and quantitative perspective.

 

Edited by XRPInStillH2O

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XRP is likely appropriately valued currently given the uncertainty regarding further adoption by banks, MM, institutional investors, FX traders, and eventually subsets of the greater population. I'm in the camp of markets are generally efficient (i.e. the current price reflects all information known about the underlying investment). However, I believe there is information asymmetry in regards to digital assets, and especially Ripple. 

Tokens are hard to get into. You have verifications, multiple exchanges, wallets, risks of loosing a wallet, sending money to the wrong person, these weird complicated addresses, SilkRoad and Bitcoin stigma, etc. You also have a ton of people that have figured that part out, but don't have the technical expertise, financial background, or business experience to evaluate tokens appropriately. 

Thus, it's not a level playing field in regards to access or experience for proper price finding to occur. This will eventually happen. Ripple is making sure of it, and trying pretty hard. 

I'm more interested in what price is appropriate when everyone has easy access to XRP, especially if the banks already use it themselves. I believe banks are just a stepping stone to the greater population. 

This is just the beginning. 

How many of your friends or family have a ripple wallet where you could send them money? 

It's no different in concept than Facebook. How valuable is Facebook if only 1 or 2 of your friends have an account? Look what happened when everyone signed up....

But don't forget Myspace.

Edited by snowpar

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One difference is that we're invested in the token not Ripple. Again, Ripple can be a multibillion dollar company without XRP being successful.

That said, I do think the price will go up because I think it's a great asset for payments and properly positioned utility will increase and price will follow. 

My comments are not meant to criticize Ripple, they've been great stewards of the platform and asset thus far and I trust they will continue to be. My portfolio is heavily weighted toward XRP. Trust me, I want XRP to go up as much as the next person, I stand to benefit a lot if the price further appreciates. But while hope give us something to live for, rational thinking is what keeps us alive. 

 

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20 minutes ago, cmbartley said:

One difference is that we're invested in the token not Ripple. Again, Ripple can be a multibillion dollar company without XRP being successful.

This is 100% correct. However, I do believe there will be a digital asset used as XRP was originally intended. It's just a matter of if XRP wins the race to adoption. 

They have a pretty good start, but technology and innovation can easily dethrone the best current solution eventually. 

One thing is for sure, if XRP does take off and start to get wider adoption and usage, there will be a number of companies on their heels trying to beat them.

Edited by snowpar

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16 hours ago, sparr0w said:

I particularly enjoyed the part about reconciling your beliefs with your XRP holdings, I've had many of the same thoughts, you're not alone.  I expect I'll continue to have those thoughts and like many others I would assume.

At some point, I'd like to have a more wide-ranging discussion on that topic.  For right now, the TL;DR version is Ripple, as a bridge, will perhaps help all crypto-currencies be more spendable, and through their dealings with the world of finance, will help treasury officials take crypto more seriously -- both of which will hopefully help crypto (and therefore privacy) overall.

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At some point, I'd like to have a more wide-ranging discussion on that topic.  For right now, the TL;DR version is Ripple, as a bridge, will perhaps help all crypto-currencies be more spendable, and through their dealings with the world of finance, will help treasury officials take crypto more seriously -- both of which will hopefully help crypto (and therefore privacy) overall.

Due to the current mood and some of the FUD flying around the internet, I'm not sure now is the time, but I agree that it would be a great discussion to have.  My worry is that folks who can't compartmentalize a conversation might misunderstand statements that need to be made in order for that discussion to work.  I think if we could have that discussion without letting emotions, convictions, and beliefs get in the way it would be very interesting to see what people think about it.  Of course it would all be opinions and guesses, and well, honestly the emotions, convictions, and beliefs need to be discussed... but in a sort of "sandboxed" way.  Very hard to accomplish that in the current climate.

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9 hours ago, cmbartley said:

Trust me, I want XRP to go up as much as the next person, I stand to benefit a lot if the price further appreciates. But while hope give us something to live for, rational thinking is what keeps us alive.

Well said!

One of the things we all -- as the XRP investor community -- have to keep in mind is that we are just as susceptible to being blinded by belief as the bitcoin-cultists.

On a near daily basis, I struggle with this as I try to identify what blinders I've set up for myself (on both this subject, and others).  If XRP had passed its peak, how long would I stay in denial?  How long would I cling to hope instead of rationally assessing the evidence at hand? To riff off an old Upton Sinclair line, it's difficult to get a man to see something when his financial hopes rest upon him not seeing it.

I do think that crypto in general and XRP in particular are going to have a really great decade.  If Bitcoin was the Arpanet of the crypto world, one could argue we're in the Netscape era of blockchain. That's exciting. If true, that means we've only begun to see the potential that XRP and blockchain hold.

But let's not forget what happened to Netscape.  It's easy to forget that, between the popular rise of the World Wide Web in the early to mid 1990s and the glory days of the present, we witnessed a huge dotcom bubble collapse in at the end of the decade, and another huge downturn at the end of the next decade.  How many skeletons of past internet behemoths lay strewn along the roadside to our current internet era? We all hope that XRP is going to be the Google of Blockchain -- and not the next AskJeeves or AltaVista.

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I like this thread as it shows the communities internal struggle between trying to place a realistic value vs. what we want it to be (nowhere as poetically put as @CyberpunkWayne or @cmbartley I know).

Personally I believe this place of struggle is the best place to be. The day we stop trying to reconcile with ourselves is the day we are fully committed to a path- either we go hard core bitcoin believer like and refuse to accept anything but the purity of Ripple, or we walk away in disgust.

I think one of the best things keeping us on our toes is the fact that the early life and to a large extent today XRP has been easily directed by Ripple, who has pivoted, tailored and changed as needed by business. This flexibility makes it hard to structure a unam opinionem.

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Guest petke
On 5/24/2017 at 5:25 AM, cmbartley said:

One difference is that we're invested in the token not Ripple. Again, Ripple can be a multibillion dollar company without XRP being successful.

A few things that keep the incentives between ripple and XRP aligned to some degree:

1) Ripple employees are rich in XRP. They wont get filthy rich if XRP fails.

2) Ripple gives away XPR's to its business partners. So they too will have an incentive for it to succeed.

3) XPR has a built in advantage that no other currency can have in the ripple system. Its the only currency without counterparty risk. If you make a payment of XRP->XRP using the ripple system, its the actual XRP commodity that is transferred. No gateway is necessary. If you instead send a BTC->BTC (or USD->USD) payment using the ripple system, what is sent is just a IOU that is transferred. You need to use and trust a gateway. They will charge you a fee for taking this risk. (Anyone correct me if i'm wrong here)

4) Every bank might wants its own coin. But no bank wants to use any other banks coin. They can use their own coins internally. But they need some neutral currency to make payments between each other.

 

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I just wanted to add my opinion regarding what cmbartley said: 

"One difference is that we're invested in the token not Ripple. Again, Ripple can be a multibillion dollar company without XRP being successful."

This well may be the case and frankly whatever we currently research we cannot know the answer to this question. 

However our research will give us some crucial info to look at in the coming time. 

My research has resulted in the following:

1. Ripple offers the network and XRP, for a business (bank) to use the network it is not obligatory to use the XRP. This is the first threat to the XRP

> at this point I have to stress out that this is the only direct factor that I see as a threat to the XRP

2. The biggest piece of concrete news has to be SBI Group involvement in Ripple. The SBI Group is the first part of the banking system that adopetd internet banking which is a good piece of evidence that they want to be at the forefront of innovation in this industry and that they are serious about blockchain distributed ledger technology. 

3. SBI & Ripple formed a join venture called SBI Ripple ASIA. 60% of the ownership is with SBI and 40% with Ripple.

4. In adition to no 3. SBI has acquired 11.2% of ownership of Ripple company

5. SBI began testing the framework sometime in 2016 (can't remember at this time exactly) 

6. In OCT 2016 SBI formed SBI Virtual Currencies Ltd with the goal to create an exchange to be trading BTC, ETH, XRP, USD and YPN

7. On april 1st 2017 the law has been passed in Japan reckognizeing crypto as method of payment - this is not to be only bitcoin but some aditional blockhain currencies

8. The Accounting Standards Board of Japan decided Tuesday to begin consideration, expected to take six months, of a framework for treatment of virtual currency - following the passing of the law in no. 7

9. In the presentation which you can get a hold of online the SBI group has set a time frame of 3 years in total to come from FinTech era 1.0 through 1.5. and in conclusion to fin tech era 2.0. at which point the whole group will be using the Ripple RCL system (thus XRP included)

> this include banks, insurance markets, securities and others

> I also want to stress out that the whole group has 21 million client accounts as of end of 2016

10. They show plans to implement this system nationwide and after that to their crucial markets in SE China, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Australia and other "close" countries

So what do I conclude from these short 10 facts that I found online researching? 

They are putting this system really smart. First the banks will integrate and adopt this payment system and it will be nationwide.  In order to fully prepare for this stage the laws and regulations are currently being implemented and finalized. At some point in 2017 I expect this exchange to go live and it will be (correct me if I am wrong) the first CRYPTO exchange to be formed by major financial players (meaning stability). These are all steps how the nation accepts these changes easier and with more trust. Following these actions I expect RCL method to enter into securities & insurances market.  These are all steps that can be concluded today from available data.

I  predict that the way this thing moves forward (at least in Japan) is that more and more more businesses start using this system. If you own a multinational company this transaction system will be a must. It's faster, cheaper and more secure. Furthermore it enables you not to keep large sums of money all across the world but to be able to quickly move money where needed in your company. This is a totally new business standpoint as far as liquidity management goes, completely new perspective. 

So in the long run I see RCL possibly being accepted in everyday use while paying with your mobile phone. 

I put all of the facts on SBI on purpose cause it's more or less a clear case of what's to come. 

Take a look at the big investors of Ripple and you will know for yourselves where this can go and into what industries. 

Thanks for sharing your opinions further. 

 

 

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On 5/23/2017 at 8:19 PM, cmbartley said:

How much should pay for something has no current utility (other than art)?

How much do you pay for something with demonstrated future utility? There are valid arguments for both sides. Time will be the judge. 

Edited by Xi195
*demonstrated*

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23 minutes ago, Xi195 said:

How much do you pay for something with demonstrated future utility? There are valid arguments for both sides. Time will be the judge. 

Demonstrated potential future utility. You cannot prove a future event. If it were certain then we would all convert the entirety of our Fiat into XRP. You have to be honest with yourself about the risk involved in order to not accidentally impoverish yourself. 

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8 minutes ago, cmbartley said:

Demonstrated potential future utility. You cannot prove a future event.

Agreed, but the fact that it is demonstrated ups the ante. My point was that current utility is not the only method for deriving value. 

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