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now TDE is over, let's reflect


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Let's take stock now that it's finally done.

Distribution seems to have been done without a problem in a few hours. The least we should expect. Let's see what happens with the exchanges.

Price, I am honestly pretty surprised. I didn't expect it to go that low. Those of who have been buying up the IOU made the wrong call. I thought it would go up, I was wrong. I still think it will go much higher eventually (long term) but those who waited and are buying now have made the right call. I am also buying some now. But anyway there we are. You win some you lose some. I still think it is going to be big. I am still hopeful.

I am guessing that in the next month or so there will be reiterations of the various roadmaps. I can't remember what was next on the list. I am guessing it is something related to F-assets or layer cake. My view now is that flare will take a good few years to get ramped up, kinda like ADA. But if it is anything like ADA then if you hang in there long enough eventually we will be rewarded. The compounding is also a huge bonus. Like with SGB, I fantasize about when the price is much higher, these weekly rewards will be worthwhile and then some.

So overall, I am disappointed the price has gone down to where it is now. I think a 4 cent Flare is a massive undervaluation in the long term, but that has always been the copium of crypto. 

What do you guys think?

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Well as expected the price dumped like crazy, and it not even close to be over yet IMHO.

Most of the people that got FLR just view it as free money and dumped ASAP, no artificial "incentive" could stop them, it was pure common sense this would happen.

I got my tokens from Bitstamp but for the time being I think you cannot yet trade or withdraw, and I guess this is the case for many other exchanges too, so the dump up to now is due to self custody owners mainly, who I believe are a minority. So the price will go further down the coming days (or even hours).

I would consider investing some of my own money when/if it gets well under 0,01c, any purchase above that price range I think is way to risky considering the huge amounts of FLR the creators own (and will certainly dump gradually), the amount of tokens that exchanges like coinbase who ripped of their clients hold and who will also dump I suppose, and how SGB price plummeted leading it to be practically worthless by now (apparently SGB also dropped another 20% since yesterday...), which is a good indication how things will roll with FLR in the near future.

There is some potential for the project, although up to now there have been some not so good signs from the FLR team on how they can deliver, so I don't have crazy hopes. I will wait and see for now.




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8 hours ago, Seoulite said:

So overall, I am disappointed the price has gone down to where it is now. I think a 4 cent Flare is a massive undervaluation in the long term, but that has always been the copium of crypto. 

What do you guys think?

ripple are developing a solution that uses the xrp ledger to disrupt the world of cross border payments - and potentially the forex markets one day. xrp has a circulating token count of around 50 billion and a price of 0.34 - giving it a valuation of 17 billion dollars nominally for the entire network. Quite reasonable considering the potential impact it might have on the world.

FLR has a circulating supply of approx 12billion (now, but in reality less since many users won't get access for some time, if ever), and at a price of 0.04 it has a total market cap of 480million (but in reality less).

8 hours ago, BillyOckham said:

I agree.

I strongly disagree.  I'm not aware of any projects using FLR or the flare network for any actual real world business that generates income. I would therefore say that a price of 0.04 is overvalued. (SGB even more so, since not only is it not used, but it probably never will be).

[Of course, the flare team might announce new partners, new developments and the network might gain traction - I will of course reassess at that point - lets face it, tons of coins have no uses or purpose and are worth more, so my viewpoint is unconventional].

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Flare originally had TWO "value propositions":


* Turing Complete Smart Contracts

That's why Hugo's team got Ripple as an Angel Investor. The story of Ripple and "Smart Contracts" is unfortunately a story of failures.

1) Having Vitalik B. on the couch, just to hear about the idea of Smart Contracts, not being able to be kept at Ripple because of visa problems and finally being the face of Ethereum. (BTW trusting Justin Sun onboard to lead Ripple deployment on Asia ending with him creating Tron instead !!).

2) Not managing to create a smart contracts enviroment around XRP with Codious + Interledger Protocol

3) Finally trusting Flare Network to fill the gap and fund them only for Hugo to play another Vitalik & Sun game.

Now: F-XRP turned into "F-Assets". but "F-Assets" is currently just vaporware and staled. So that part of the value proposition is gone.

This is the current value proposition: A smart contract's environment that uses Solidity (meaning it is EASY for Ethereum developers to get onboard) but super fast (in relative terms) because it uses Avalanche's tech.

So basically the "proposition" is having created a "Frankenstein" with code of other networks. But there are many teams developing on Flare just because they are Ethereum teams that need to allmost just "cut & paste" their projects, so why not? It's like installing the same software but in a faster computer.

"Solidity working fast and cheap", that's the real offer now. That is what has been delivered. The rest is just vaporware.

That's why some Solidity developers are interested and building on Flare and that's why the rest are mad at Flare. And both sides are correct. If you have what you were promised (solidity developers seeking a fast and cheaper environment) then you are happy and if you DON't have what you were promised (F-Assets), then you are not. Both crowds contribute to the value perception of Flare/Songbird.

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But he:

So for the record, @JoelKatz bought FLR @ USD 0.04 (or 0.12 XRP) . Don't take it as an investment advice, he has done terrible trading moves in the past (selling ETH too cheap for example)

I managed to convert 20% (of the 15% Airdrop) into SGB at an average 6.57 SGB per FLR

At current prices if I wanted to build a FLR position that matches 100% the promised FLR drop at snapshot time I would need to exchange 10,20% of the XRP holding (at that time) at a 0.12 XRP for FLR ratio.

So at the current market prices it is like Flare Network has robbed me 10% of my XRP holdings on 12 DEC 2020 and now proposes to "redistribute" it. And that 10% number is what would cost me today to rebuild the FLR stash that was promised.


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6 hours ago, Gringo said:

So at the current market prices it is like Flare Network has robbed me 10% of my XRP holdings on 12 DEC 2020 …

I respect your knowledge and expertise in markets.  But I have no idea how anyone could ever believe that statement.

How on earth can they possibly have robbed you?  

They “said” they were going to GIVE you something,  then ended up actually GIVING you less than they said.  

That is a lot closer to “a change of plan” than it is to a “robbery”.


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It seems that the gripe is about the change in focus away from the XRP community and providing smart contracts to non-turing chains towards universal bridging/smart-contracts/leveraging data. Whether they have taken advantage of the xrp community or not is impossible to say because we can't know if they planned this change in advance. People are taking time to catch up with the reality of the massive shift in the project. As I said in a post elsewhere, the f-asset system is really a side project now, the main event is layercake and the state connector.

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40 minutes ago, WarChest said:

What does connecting to wallet do? Is it safe?

That’s a great and valid question.  It makes me uncomfortable too.

As far as I know,  it is safe in that it allows only what you agree to “sign”.  

But it’s unsafe if you get too comfortable and lazy AND if that happens to be a malicious site.  Which to be fair, is not that common.  Connecting in this instance is to allow the site to request a voting tran which your software will compose and submit.  But only after you approve it.

I am not at all an expert and yet know just enough to be wary.    I won’t be voting since I think it’s a forgone conclusion.   Also I’m not sure what I actually prefer.  I do lean to accepting the proposal but am unsure.


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