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Eik

Fair warning: there might be a bubble

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For me they lost all the trust! They promised that 1 USDT is backed with 1 USD - but you can not change to 1 USD. I try to sell all my USDT. For me BTC is the most important currency on Polo. 

They only reason to hold USDT that I know is, that maybe in some countries there is a tax advantage if you hold USDT instead of USD or EUR. But what is a tax advantage if the currency have not the value that they promised to have. 

 

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4 hours ago, thunderw said:

It reminds me on the new economy bubble around 2000. With all those crappy ICOs taking place. I can just give you all one piece of advice: focus on cryptos with a clear usecase. 

I, personally, am convinced that XRP will turn out to be the Google of the new economy bubble.

Exactly! 

Back when there were new public offerings every week with new internet start-ups, every small company in silicon valley was trying to put together some type of internet-based business, whether it fit or not.  It reminds me of the way some business reporters are talking about blockchain - don't get me wrong!  I'm as excited as anybody, but blockchain doesn't solve all problems.

Lucky for us invested in XRP, I truly believe Ripple "gets it" and understands exactly where their use cases are.  Just re-read JoelKatz's posts if you have any doubt. 

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USDT  issues will only drive people to RCL. I saw a twitter thread where BTC guys were arguing about speed and cost of ETH vs BTC  transactions and what  was the best method to flee suspect exchanges. They argued ETH was faster but more expensive, then that btc could be just as fast if you up'd the fee to the equivalent of the ETH fee.  It's only a matter of time before they see the XRP fastest and cheapest transfer vehicle and realize they can keep their precious coins and move quickly on RCL. 

Regarding bubbles.... Not sure where I found this, might have been twitter or on this forum. But as you can see we are no where close to a bubble if you look at participation. The majority of people who consider themselves knowledgeable about crypto are not on board the Ripple express. Never mind the larger group of people who consider themselves knowledgeable about investing or technology and have no idea about crypto mkts at all. And I don't even have to mention your neighbor who doesn't pay attention to either investments or technology. 

Also considered all the people who have never been able to participate before who will soon... 

http://www.newsweek.com/financial-inclusion-could-add-37-trillion-developing-world-528462

 

WjhiMMO.jpg

Edited by Kakoyla

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From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble

Quote

On the long-term legacy of the bubble, venture capitalist Fred Wilson, who funded dot-com companies, said about the dot-com bubble:

"A friend of mine has a great line. He says 'Nothing important has ever been built without irrational exuberance'. Meaning that you need some of this mania to cause investors to open up their pocketbooks and finance the building of the railroads or the automobile or aerospace industry or whatever. And in this case, much of the capital invested was lost, but also much of it was invested in a very high throughput backbone for the Internet, and lots of software that works, and databases and server structure. All that stuff has allowed what we have today, which has changed all our lives... that's what all this speculative mania built".[28]

 

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I agree with what ltrading is hinting that whatever comes out of this bubble or non-bubble, and however much people will win and lose, Ripple's idea of IoV and connecting ledgers will definitely be a structural asset that the world will keep, and keep building on. Just like the Ethereum's trustless contracts. And... well.. probably bitcoin by that time will also have solved some of their minor issues to stay around in this world to praise them for starting with it all.

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MY BTC has been cashed out... We're on the way up... And What goes up, must come down. But I think we'll pop over $1900 (cad).

Then will see XRP Surge to 0.8... I hope better to see an ETH screw-up and then Everyone flee to our beloved XRP.

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I am scared of hype that leads to bubbles. Sadly, there isn't one market that can make the large masses rich, and there will be a time that one big shakeout will occur.  I have traded through the  DOT COM bubble where $300 shares were delisted, and the 2008 MBS crisis. When the end came, it was bad.  

In my opinion, retail traders can not have enough influence and hype any underlying asset to cause a bubble, but institutions sure can.   Luckily, we are not seeing any traditional fund houses buying, but if regulations change they sure will.   One aspect to consider is the BTC ETF that the WInklevosses are trying to legalize. This is where you are going after institutional money, and funds could put billions of their customer's funds. This will initially cause a huge price spike, but eventually, would lead to a decline that may last for years.  The ETF is also bad because now you are building a derivative associated with a cryptocurrency, but this is a different topic.  Institutions have ZERO intentions selling any asset because they make their money by charging management fees on assets.  When one generation loses their funds, there one right behind it. 

Spotting bubbles are hard because bubbles can last for years, and everyone wants to max out his/her return.  This combination in itself makes it hard to exit assets on time. 

At some point, you may notice more talk on TV, more analysis on the media, institutional investors stepping in and the exponential growth that will be "sick". You will need step aside, knowing full well that prices will continue climbing.   

My barber didn't ask me about "cryptocurrencies" yet...so we may be ok....so far.  

 

 

 

Edited by Spekul8

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6 hours ago, zerpdigger said:

everything is green... total madness 

When everything is green, everyone feels like a genius. Hard not to feel smart when all of your holdings are increasing in value. Feeling smart is addictive (as is gaining wealth), and fuels the behavior that led one to feel smart. There will be corrections...

Edited by cmbartley

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So what I feel from all of your great replies is something like:

Don't worry, this tether thing (if it is a thing) is just a small bubble and probably not even a bubble because other, larger, bubbles are likely to overshadow it. Take your profits on time, but keep on taking profits until the moment the majority of the population (even your barber) talks about it and when institutional investors had enough shots at it. A bubble is only a bubble that is about to collapse if there is not much more left to inflate it with.

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The possible reasons why it still has plenty of inflatability left is discussed for example on /r/bitcoin:

Ironically titled: 'Friendly reminder', as opposed to this topic's: 'Fair warning' :D

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3 hours ago, Eik said:

A bubble is only a bubble that is about to collapse if there is not much more left to inflate it with.

 

A bubble explosion occurs over time. Initially, there is a selloff and all the Bulls think it's a correction. Then you have more sellers that join in as price decline occurs, and at some point, there will be gaps to the downside, not a smooth 10,9,8,7....but, 10, 7,6,4, etc. Finally, The public and institutions are so scared that declines are nothing like we have seen before.  

Even during declines, you have price increases and that gives hope to the Perma-Bulls (permanent bulls like we see on this site who always think XRP will go up AKA XRP Bugs).  

I think one of the variables that I will be following are the reactions here along with the price increase.  

By the way, those who talk about Cryptocurrency as a safe haven underlying assets are dreamers.  In panic time people go to Cash in Western Markets. 

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The utility of USDT will fade as the market matures and Fiat is more widely available. Ripple, Gatehub, bitstamp, and others are working hard to make this a reality. The market will further mature once central banks start to issue digital dollars etc onto ledgers. It's going to be bumpy til then. 

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