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Posted (edited)

As some may already know , tomorrow we have a BIG news coming out. 

In a span of 30 minutes there are 3 major events happening , that will affect crypto prices. 

123321.thumb.JPG.5c3cd0bf1d3d639d0c99d2e8311babe1.JPG

 

The FOMC statement , Federal Funds Rate and the FOMC Press Conference will take place and will spike a medium to high volatility in the markets. 

Current hike percent expected is 50bp ( or explained 0.5% ). 


Despite this is already calculated in the price of recent crypto retracement , do not underestimate the investors that don't track these news and are informed by TV news. 
These news can trigger some investors shorting hard ! 
 

(Personal Prediction) 

Bitcoin Price to drop in the range 31,000 - 33,000$
XRP Price to drop in the range 0.55 - 0.57$
"Please don't kill the messenger :)

( This is a personal opinion and should not be taken as investment advice ! ) 

Edited by mNk
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  • mNk changed the title to [Day Traders] Be aware of tomorrows FOMC ! [Updated]
Posted (edited)

After all the dust left from yesterday :D

The major thing that happened is not the FOMC announcement itself. As mentioned above the 50bp price was already calculated in the price long before the announcements. 

The important thing that we need to take a look was the announcement that they made " more 50's coming in the next few months" 

This translated logically is a big "STOP" on the Bitcoin UP capabilities. 
Also considering that they will now start to implement this "NEW" 50bp in to Bitcoin's price Im still confident the prediction in the previous comment is accurate ! 

Bitcoin is on a leash at the moment ! Keep it in mind ! 
:)

Edited by mNk
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Posted (edited)

[06/05/2022]


Previous prediction analysis : 

BTC Price - Way off with the prediction ( to be honest that upwards movement in it's size cached me without the pants ) 
XRP Price - We touched the 0.58$ price range ( still off by 0.01$ ) Was expecting a bit more push by ASIA toward down side ( but still they did decent in that direction ). 


Prediction for Today's movement : 

Again some major price/volatility movers today! This time at 13:30PM UK time. ( 8:30AM US) 
image.png.1c6a9a64528e9e91a98d54b6e08a450d.png

 

If we follow the pattern forming from the previous event and if this rates come as a negative , that will hit USD/YEN rates. 
Hitting USD/YEN Rates will trigger movement of GOLD price in direction "UP" , also Bitcoin Price in the same direction. 
This ofc is a BIG IF. 

Reasons for me to believe that this will be the scenario is  the down positioning of the Bitcoin Price!  

image.png.00fa156f5bad6fc82dea6de0decc7d71.png

 

They did bring bitcoin price down right after the Hype of the previous news. 
What does this mean in general ? 

This means that the Markets had already SOLD their SHORTS at a premium and opened their LONG positions. They are expecting price to go UP , so they can then sell at PREMIUM again to the retail investors. 

Following this the prediction until the end of the day will be : 

Bitcoin to return to 39-39 500$ range! ( This should happen in the NY Session )
 

Edited by mNk
date input for tracking purposes
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  • mNk changed the title to [Day Traders]

No major news in upcoming days. 

Expecting movement at Monday.

( Monday is a day of fake moves , so do not expect it to sustain )

Wednesday is the usual day when the price goes up. 

 

So I'm expecting this to be the forecast for the next week.

 

Will not give price ranges , since my previous ones did not came exactly as predicted

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I usually don't care about the price. I'm searching for the direction of the movement. 

 

If you know the directions the price is irrelevant. You can accumulate at down and earn in up... 

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26 minutes ago, mNk said:

I usually don't care about the price. I'm searching for the direction of the movement. 

 

If you know the directions the price is irrelevant. You can accumulate at down and earn in up... 

You contradict yourself imho

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Posted (edited)

Direction is movement ;)

If i need to explain it the easiest way will be.... 
If the movement is down ( i don't care with how much technically ) i will use my USDT Balance to purchase at discount. 
( Accumulating more count with the token .... Consider this a multiplier ) 

If the movement is up ( i still don't care with how much ) i will initiate a sell with a previous placed USDT->XRP ( or other token ) order. 


Both ways im technically earning 

First situation is im accumulating count ( and keeping my initial investment same ) 
Second i will actually gain value of my current accumulated token counts. 


If you don't get this i can't explain it more simple :D  

In other words. If there is movement im in a WIN/WIN situation. 
If we go sideways .... i don't gain anything. 

To give you some basic perspective.... my multipliers reached levels that bring triple digits with couple of cents movement. 

Basic calculation: 50 000 USDT > XRP at current price $0.5747  = 87,001.91404210893 XRP 
87000 XRP -> USDT at XRP Price of 0.5847 ( 1 cent up movement ) = 50,870.01914042109 USDT 


You can continue the mathematical variations with a down trend also ;) I relly need to get some sleep 

Edited by mNk
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Posted (edited)

I still think to say "I dont care price" is not accurate, for simple reasons:

If price goes from 0.20 to 5, and than down, you will not be buying at 4.90.

Even when you search only for direction, you still use price as indicator e.g. you will think twice to enter at 4.90 just for 0.02 cent up, as it quickly can bite you.

Edited by xrp-nuke
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Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, xrp-nuke said:

If price goes from 0.20 to 5, and than down, you will not be buying at 4.90.

If price goes from 0.20 to 5 - My Value of token count will not be the same as 0.20 :) = PROFIT 

If price goes from 5 to 4.90 - My Count will increase in the selloff ( i will have the price converted as count ) :) = PROFIT for COUNT of tokens ( value remains the same ) 

40 minutes ago, xrp-nuke said:

Even when you search only for direction, you still use price as indicator e.g. you will think twice to enter at 4.90 just for 0.02 cent up, as it quickly can bite you.

As long as it moves i don't really care what direction i will profit :) 

Price is irrelevant! I can apply this at 5 at 10 at 0.1 at 0.2 at 1000. It still gonna have the same results. 


I already explained you that my count multiplier is actually capable of hitting 3 digits profits for 1 cent movements :D

Why would i be greedy to wait for bigger ones ? 



I believe you are not understanding my logic correctly because you are trying to apply the static approach of a HODL in a Day/Week trading schedule :D  


Clarifications needs to be done here i believe : 


When i started this technique i used a investment of 5000$ 
This was my only investment in purchase out of my savings. 

I never had to purchase more tokens with money. All my tokens were accumulated with trades. 
I DO NOT  use leverage or any other form of DEBT ! EVER ! 

Currently im in the 100 000 - 250 000 coin count range 
Every movement in this range is providing me with solid income. 

1 cent down movement is providing me with more coins 
1 cent up movement is providing me with more value of current coin count. 


The only possible way to wipe me out ( Bite me back as you said ) is if bitcoin price jumps for the ATH in days. On theory only ! ;) Don't think i do not have PLAN B for this case scenario also :D.
( You cannot catch me with all my coins in USDT. They are divided ! )

I will have pending USDT ( waiting for movement Down) in the same time i will have pending XRP for example waiting for movement UP ) 
All transactions im doing are recorded and are self canceling out. 

It's gonna be difficult to explain you the entire process. 

I.E. 
I wont sell out at loss because i have different placements in different levels of price as pending movement to this area in both USDT and XRP. 
Your logic is wrong in my case because you assuming im ALL IN :P Where I'm not ! I'm placed for profit in both directions. 


Example : 

Lets take 1$ xrp as it will be easy to explain and calc. 

If XRP is 1$   i will have (for example) 5 000 XRP and 5000 USDT waiting at this level as separate transactions. 

If it moves down 0.99 i will initiate a USDT to XRP transaction. ( gaining more tokens ) 

I will now have 10 000xrp + 5000*0.01 profit ( i don't want to bring calculator out :D sorry ) 
If price moves up i will do the opposite thing. 

I will keep my USDT at that level and will initiate sell of XRP>USDT -> This will increase my VALUE ! the formulation will be the same with profits going in USDT ( value ) 

All my transactions are backed up like this ! 
When i buy i DO NOT BUY ALL IN on specific price ! 
When i buy i set  aside USDT as my own private leverage so i can get out clean in a wrong movement. 

ratio is 50% 50% 


If i will buy 1000 XRP at 1$ i will leave 1000 USDT next to it ( as a pair ) 

Do you get the reasoning now ? :)

 

Edited by mNk
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24 minutes ago, mNk said:

If price goes from 0.20 to 5 - My Value of token count will not be the same as 0.20 :) = PROFIT 

If price goes from 5 to 4.90 - My Count will increase in the selloff ( i will have the price converted as count ) :) = PROFIT for COUNT of tokens ( value remains the same ) 

As long as it moves i don't really care what direction i will profit :) 

Price is irrelevant! I can apply this at 5 at 10 at 0.1 at 0.2 at 1000. It still gonna have the same results. 


I already explained you that my count multiplier is actually capable of hitting 3 digits profits for 1 cent movements :D

Why would i be greedy to wait for bigger ones ? 



I believe you are not understanding my logic correctly because you are trying to apply the static approach of a HODL in a Day/Week trading schedule :D  


Clarifications needs to be done here i believe : 


When i started this technique i used a investment of 5000$ 
This was my only investment in purchase out of my savings. 

I never had to purchase more tokens with money. All my tokens were accumulated with trades. 
I DO NOT  use leverage or any other form of DEBT ! EVER ! 

Currently im in the 100 000 - 250 000 coin count range 
Every movement in this range is providing me with solid income. 

1 cent down movement is providing me with more coins 
1 cent up movement is providing me with more value of current coin count. 


The only possible way to wipe me out ( Bite me back as you said ) is if bitcoin price jumps for the ATH in days. On theory only ! ;) Don't think i do not have PLAN B for this case scenario also :D.
( You cannot catch me with all my coins in USDT. They are divided ! )

I will have pending USDT ( waiting for movement Down) in the same time i will have pending XRP for example waiting for movement UP ) 
All transactions im doing are recorded and are self canceling out. 

It's gonna be difficult to explain you the entire process. 

I.E. 
I wont sell out at loss because i have different placements in different levels of price as pending movement to this area in both USDT and XRP. 
Your logic is wrong in my case because you assuming im ALL IN :P Where I'm not ! I'm placed for profit in both directions. 


 

I do understand what you do, I was doing similar things back in mid 2021, as long as you "hedge" correctly, entry price is irrelevant, but what I say: price and direction is not mutually exclusive.

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5 hours ago, mNk said:

ratio is 50% 50% 


If i will buy 1000 XRP at 1$ i will leave 1000 USDT next to it ( as a pair ) 


How do you deal with longer term trends?  
 

If the market is falling you need continual new injections of USDT or you have to either stop trading or sell XRP at a loss.

If you have infinite money then you can do as you say,  but when I tried it a couple of years ago I found I quickly ran out of money and just had a bunch of small ‘bets’ sitting like orphans waiting for the price to come back to that level.

Also I never worked out a good way of recording what bets needed what prices etc.

 

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