Battle of the Hogans Over the Newly Released Ripple Legal Memos

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[Danny]

What lawyer Thien-Vu says reminds me of what former SEC chair Mary Jo White has said about the SEC long time ago:
"There’s no way to sugarcoat it. They’re dead wrong legally and factually."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sec-dead-wrong-former-chair-150001596.html

[Julian_Williams]

It seems Ripple cannot lose on Fair Notice and has a very low chance of losing on the Securities issue if it went to trial.  The Fair notice comes first so it is unlikely to go to trial anyway.

This confirms to me that Gensler is really thick and obstinate.  His best option was always to clear everything early in the case before the discovery had exposed his weaknesses, and before the XRP army and social media had started digging into the corruption he has ineffectively been trying to cover up   The delays in settling have severely hurt SEC's position in this case and SEC's back is now right against the wall. 

As I see it he has too options - give in to most of Ripples demands but get a face saving payment from Ripple or run away from the case by unilaterally dropping the case.  My gut is warning me that his recent theatrical manoeuvres over the DPP for the two Hinman emails are a pretext/fig leaf for SEC to drop the case.  None of the lawyers seem to think this is his game, and I am no lawyer.  I just hope my gut feelings about what SEC/Gensler are up to are completely wrong headed  

[RipMcGillicuddy]

42 minutes ago, Julian_Williams said:

It seems Ripple cannot lose on Fair Notice and has a very low chance of losing on the Securities issue if it went to trial.  The Fair notice comes first so it is unlikely to go to trial anyway.

This confirms to me that Gensler is really thick and obstinate.  His best option was always to clear everything early in the case before the discovery had exposed his weaknesses, and before the XRP army and social media had started digging into the corruption he has ineffectively been trying to cover up   The delays in settling have severely hurt SEC's position in this case and SEC's back is now right against the wall. 

As I see it he has too options - give in to most of Ripples demands but get a face saving payment from Ripple or run away from the case by unilaterally dropping the case.  My gut is warning me that his recent theatrical manoeuvres over the DPP for the two Hinman emails are a pretext/fig leaf for SEC to drop the case.  None of the lawyers seem to think this is his game, and I am no lawyer.  I just hope my gut feelings about what SEC/Gensler are up to are completely wrong headed  

I generally think along the same lines as you do, but that being said...

1. There is just no way that this is all going as smoothly for Ripple as it seems to us. Things just aren't what they seem. 

2. Gensler is seasoned and calculated. I do not believe he is stupid. He understands exactly how and when to leverage the weight of the Federal Government to coerce private companies and citizens. He is among the worst type of bureaucrats that exist.  

[Xrpdude]

Anyone know what happens if the SEC drop the case? Can John Deaton go forward and sue on behalf of holders? 

[Julian_Williams]

36 minutes ago, Xrpdude said:

Anyone know what happens if the SEC drop the case? Can John Deaton go forward and sue on behalf of holders? 

Disaster; XRP not relisted on exchanges and no clarity

Deaton has said he would try and use his position as Amicus Curiae to ask the court for clarity in secondary markets.

Edited February 21, 2022 by Julian_Williams

[Xrpdude]

1 minute ago, Julian_Williams said:

Disaster; XRP not relisted on exchanges and no clarity

There's got to be a fairly high chance of that then I guess? Maybe though Ripple would go on to sue the SEC? that would be their best option? 

[Julian_Williams]

3 minutes ago, Xrpdude said:

There's got to be a fairly high chance of that then I guess? Maybe though Ripple would go on to sue the SEC? that would be their best option? 

That would put us back another 2 years, which is why I think that Ripple should not oppose SEC's request to make the emails DPP.  That way the case would still go to FN and SEC would find it harder to withdraw.  I have asked both Deaton and Hogan to comment on my perspective and had no response, which makes me think they think my idea is neurotic. 

[Frisia]

36 minutes ago, Xrpdude said:

There's got to be a fairly high chance of that then I guess? Maybe though Ripple would go on to sue the SEC? that would be their best option? 

Is it even possible to drop the charges with the trial in an advanced state? I'm not a lawyer but it could be that if the case cannot be dropped, the case must be dismissed and in that case Ripple cannot be charged again.

On the other hand if dropped, it can be reinstated/ reproposed again but only if new evidence is brought forward.

We would need a lawyer to confirm or clarify I'm afraid😬.

[Xrpdude]

1 hour ago, Julian_Williams said:

That would put us back another 2 years, which is why I think that Ripple should not oppose SEC's request to make the emails DPP.  That way the case would still go to FN and SEC would find it harder to withdraw.  I have asked both Deaton and Hogan to comment on my perspective and had no response, which makes me think they think my idea is neurotic. 

I suppose this might be a bit of Hopium, but... if the SEC did drop the case they would look spectacularly incompetent, I'm of course aware of the irony of that statement  the SEC haven't exactly got a glorious history have they, see: Bernie Madoff etc. So the aggressive nature of the way the SEC has pursued Ripple by going for three suits, not just one (i.e. against Ripple the co., Brad and Chris) means they have to walk backwards out of three actions not just one. Harder I would imagine and way more embarrassing. I guess this means that, ironically, what looked worse in the beginning might actually be a saving grace - especially since all three of the aforementioned actions involve the notion of 'XRP being a security per se.' 

I cannot see them walking away, without duck sized egg, on the SEC face (x3). 

Here's another factor: If you are a successful defendant, i.e. you are acquitted or the case against you is dismissed, I think Ripple should be able to claim costs and from dismissal they can ask the SEC for attorney fees (c$10M++). John E Deaton talked in this video (Ripple XRP: If The SEC Dropped The Case - What Would It Mean For XRP Holders? - YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KgUKRuhrw1o) around the 10 minute mark; he says: 

- he thinks it's unlikely the SEC will drop the case (although that is John's biggest fear)

- John says Ripple will go for attorney fees if the case is dropped

- John also says, he would try to intervene, but is unsure of the outcome and whether he would be successful, on the basis that there is no clarity for the (65,000) people involved in the Amicus motion. 

The PR of dropping the case is surely terrible too. 

There is also the fact that if the SEC 'reshaped' the case, to start again, they would have to go in at a different angle and would have to bring something new to the table to do so. They can not raise the same case again, and can not raise an antagonistic case, it must be in good faith. Therefore again, hard to do that with the optics and the amount of public interest of the case. I think the locomotion is too hard to stop right now. 

@Alluvial @Pablo @ANYONE!? 

 

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The SEC has finally come under public scrutiny in a way it has never had to deal with before, the ETH free pass and this case has put a bullseye on their back. The mission of the SEC is to protect investors, not get sued by them. This is about something bigger than crypto, this is now about systemic corruption and what WE are all going to do about it.

[RipMcGillicuddy]

More scrutiny. Very public. CNBC doesn't give ripple an ounce of attention.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/21/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-accuses-sec-of-leaking-information.html