Songbird Price Thread

[Seoulite]

Thought it would be a good idea to start a dedicated thread for price discussion. 

Songbird price action continues to impress. Given the original candle to 90 cents is only a wick near the top, some (including me) would argue that we are now currently seeing the 'rea'l ATH at around 70 cents, because there is far more real volume and real trading at these levels. 

Nevertheless, a new headline highest price is always significant, and it looks like we might be gearing up for that. If we see a new high price, I wouldn't expect much above a dollar because we start to see more extended correction.

The X-factor in all this is the exchange distributions that are now kicking in. How are they going to impact the price? Billy believes it will be positive, others negative. At the moment I am not sure. SGB rewards are inflated because of lack of distribution from exchanges, which might be driving up prices. The FF snapshot will no doubt have created a small amount of interest. FlareX revving up is also positive for liquidity. 

I am still skeptical of these prices but as hours and days roll past you have to start accepting what the chart is saying. At the moment, upside seems likelier to me, which the ATH as an obvious target. However we should prepare ourselves for some dropping at some point, the area around the 40 cent mark will be the first drop target. 

 

[JASCoder]

Great idea friend, thanks for starting this thread.

As a baseline note, the current prices at Bitrue (UTC 00:10 01OCT2021) are:

• SGB_USDT = $0.617 
• SGB_XRP = 0.65
• FLR.iou_USDT = $1.01
• FLR.iou_XRP = 1.05 

In regards to the imminent arrival of more traders with their SGB allocations entering the ecosystem, I would think we'll be seeing a "self-fulfilling prophecy" reinforcing market optimism. That is, as holders take note of rewards, and opportunities for farming on FF and other services, they could add to the buying pressure on SGB's markets... 

Fun times ahead, hopefully   

[Seoulite]

Current price on FlareX is 0.5543 CAND. Is there anything to read into this? Is CAND intended to be pegged to USD? If so the FlareX price is slightly lower than the Bitrue price. Is anyone aware of any other pairs currently trading?

[Seoulite]

SGB price fell somewhat but has gained ground again. The USDT and XRP charts are more or less moving together. Going forward it still looks like upside, but what we might see is a bit more oscillation in this range between 70 and about 35 cents before we see a takeoff to a new higher range. That is how it was with FLR and it looks like this might be the same. Since exchanges are taking their time with distributions we will likely see distributions staggered over a period of time which will help to avoid a sudden price shock. Even so, currently trading at 58 cents is higher than most would've predicted. It's impressive, but we are only a week and a bit into this thing. 

What other things might affect the price? Beginning the S-asset system is probably the next big thing. No news on when that might be yet.

[Seoulite]

Interesting price action. Thank God we quickly ended that period of absolute sideways, that is always the most boring market condition. We've seen something of a shakeout, which looks like it might be done. I thought there was a possibility that this kind of move would break the bottom (around 25 cents) and then spike back up, and I had orders waiting for it, but the price never went that low. Hitting a few key levels suggests to me that the chart has bounced off the 'support' and will now move up again. But we might get a lot more sideways. As always it is impossible to predict the timeframe. Regardless of timeframe, I think this move has likely cemented 30 cents at the new low. The only thing that would change that picture is a long slow grind that eventually breaks down below 30. In that case I would still expect a similar kind of dip / wick that touches around the low 20s and then comes back in the area we are now. The next significant change in this chart will be making a new ATH. Until then we are just in this range.

 

[JASCoder]

Songbird's week in pricing (see chart) ...

Items to note: 

• The 9th is the end of the previous epoch 
• See the run-up beginning on the 13th, the day before the start of this one
• Prices stabilized at the start of the 9th, except for the slide down into time before the start of new on 13th

It will be interesting to see if we begin to see a repeating weekly pattern forming in the times ahead 

( chart: 15m SGB_USDT 7th-16th October 2021 ) 

[Seoulite]

On 10/9/2021 at 7:48 AM, Seoulite said:

Regardless of timeframe, I think this move has likely cemented 30 cents at the new low.

Luckily this seems to be have been correct. The chart hit 31 cents and has bounced back up in the range. This move up to 54 cents has completed another pattern, so we might see a bit more correction or even a fall back to around 40 cents before hopefully more upside. We are now more or less in the middle of this range so there isn't much to do but wait. We are still in the accumulation phase after the initial launch spike, until we break the range up or down in a significant way we are just waiting. Still think 30 is a pretty hard floor. Upside and new highs seems more likely, maybe 80-20% likelihood. 

 

[youngdude]

Do I need to do anything to get my tokens? Thank you.

[Seoulite]

On 10/20/2021 at 4:35 AM, youngdude said:

Do I need to do anything to get my tokens? Thank you.

Not sure what you mean. Did you claim the Flare airdrop on an exchange or as self-custody?

[billion]

Some good price action in the past couple of days, any guesses as to why it's moving alone like this?

I'm really tempted to unload some % of my SGB but I'm worried I'll regret it if it happens to shoot up.

[JASCoder]

4 hours ago, billion said:

Some good price action in the past couple of days, any guesses as to why it's moving alone like this?

My guess would be the inducement to of the rewards being paid for delegating. 
This would add some upwards pressure on demand. 

[Guest]

5 hours ago, billion said:

Some good price action in the past couple of days, any guesses as to why it's moving alone like this?

I'm really tempted to unload some % of my SGB but I'm worried I'll regret it if it happens to shoot up.

Note: Not advice. 

If I were inclined to do YET another KYC/AML I personally would be looking at November 5, the ExFi snapshot, as a possible local top, open a Bitrue account and sell enough to pay taxes for the rewards I earned so far. 

But I am not inclined quite yet, and I might wait until it is listed in one of the exchanges that I do have an account already (e.g. Uphold, Kraken).

But what happens after the launch of ExFi v2 might change the dynamics. If there were rewards to be gotten in well established stablecoins, I expect upward pressure in prices. 

Also, if XRP price shoots up or drops significantly, that may have an impact on the SGB/XRP pair, which may then bleed into the SGB/USDT pair. I am not sure, but it is something I'd be keeping an eye on.

[Seoulite]

1 hour ago, Ripley said:

Note: Not advice. 

If I were inclined to do YET another KYC/AML I personally would be looking at November 5, the ExFi snapshot, as a possible local top, open a Bitrue account and sell enough to pay taxes for the rewards I earned so far. 

But I am not inclined quite yet, and I might wait until it is listed in one of the exchanges that I do have an account already (e.g. Uphold, Kraken).

But what happens after the launch of ExFi v2 might change the dynamics. If there were rewards to be gotten in well established stablecoins, I expect upward pressure in prices. 

Also, if XRP price shoots up or drops significantly, that may have an impact on the SGB/XRP pair, which may then bleed into the SGB/USDT pair. I am not sure, but it is something I'd be keeping an eye on.

With the ExFi snapshot, if we have it in Bifrost will it be counted?

Also I agree that these might be factors moving it around. Generally however I think we are still in accumulation phase: the FLR pair did this at first too, then it shot to a new range. Before the end of the year we will see $1 SGB, if only briefly (I think, not advice, probably wrong). 

[Guest]

21 minutes ago, Seoulite said:

With the ExFi snapshot, if we have it in Bifrost will it be counted?

Also I agree that these might be factors moving it around. Generally however I think we are still in accumulation phase: the FLR pair did this at first too, then it shot to a new range. Before the end of the year we will see $1 SGB, if only briefly (I think, not advice, probably wrong). 

Yes, BiFrost will work, as will MetaMask or any other self-custody. Whether you have SGB or WSGB won’t matter. Both will be counted.

[Flintstone]