Jump to content

SGB token price speculation back of the napkin just for fun calculations


Seoulite
 Share

Recommended Posts

23 minutes ago, brianwalden said:

@BillyOckham addressed the relationship between Songbird and Flare.

On prices, I think the price of SGB is artificially high because it's only available on one exchange right now and most people are locked out of theirs. I think it will come down as more exchanges make it available to their customers and begin trading it.

Take that with a huge grain of salt. Price predictions are not my thing.

Yeah price prediction is tricky.  Because I concluded the exact opposite.  It will rise more when it’s released elsewhere.

There is undoubtedly going to be sell pressure from the early ‘got it for free - want my money’ crowd, but speculators and investors are going to be seeing the rewards and tokenomics and want in I think.


[EDIT: I should add that’s all just my opinion and I have a terrible track record.  ]

Edited by BillyOckham
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, jbjnr said:

Decision time for me -

I will try to articulate why I lean towards ten cents. 

Earlier my calculation of a five cent launch was very close. That was based on the prices of other similar cap tokens and also my highly subjective view of what is “reasonable”. Right now it is testing at over 40 cents and I think that is high. Why? Because it is a brand new network with nothing on it yet and nothing but promises. I am as bullish as the next man but I am also wary of too much hype and too much speculation. If we were six months into Songbird and various projects were running and more announced then I would say yeah ok maybe this is a top 50 token. But right now with nothing but promises? I find that hard to accept.

 Having said ask that I have been buying more tokens (around thirty cents) and won’t be selling any. The reason is that I think Songbird could be higher risk and higher reward than even flare, precisely because it is “experimental”. If Flare is highly successful then Songbird will be dragged along with it. A year from now I am very confident that the price will be higher than now.

I don’t know enough about Internet computer to know why it has gone like that. All I can guess is that the initial hype was unbelievable but it hasn’t delivered on any of that. It’s hard to compare Flare and Songbird to ICP because I don’t know about the project.

I guess my main guide for when you sell is “am I satisfied with this price?” Or do I need the money right now. Sorry that is probably not much help because you already know all this. I’ll just say my plan is to hold for art least a few years and I have no intention of selling before then. But that’s just me and I’ll be happy to sit through an ICP style downturn.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, brianwalden said:

@BillyOckham addressed the relationship between Songbird and Flare.

On prices, I think the price of SGB is artificially high because it's only available on one exchange right now and most people are locked out of theirs. I think it will come down as more exchanges make it available to their customers and begin trading it.

Take that with a huge grain of salt. Price predictions are not my thing.

I've been pondering on how the price trading will play out given the fact many holders are wrapping and delegating their stack, and not using them for trading ( where prices are established ). 

It's also interesting to note the SGB_XRP trend is upwards lately... 

( SGB_XRP 5m )

1299586216_ScreenShot2021-09-29at2_24_22PM.png.94ecd32f5337e3e653c9d9d67a0e8a27.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, BillyOckham said:

Yeah price prediction is tricky.  Because I concluded the exact opposite.  It will rise more when it’s released elsewhere.

I'm sympathetic to the idea that the price might be high because of limited distribution.

That said, with every candle that is printed, the idea of 'good price' is being formed. That's why I now rule out prices under a cent, because those prices would now be seen as 'crazy low'. For the opposite reason I don't expect 50 dollars tomorrow. 

More listings may well produce higher prices, but just distributions without listings may not. It's very tricky to say as the chart is still very young, but as it is now people are happily buying and selling well above 20 cents. Can it dip down to those levels? Sure I guess so. But as I said above I now expect the hard limit bottom to be around 10 cents. That's where I would expect a bounce. 

Of course I could be totally wrong. However as I posted above the FLR chart did something similar to this and never looked back. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am haunted by my experience with FLR. Back when it first came out I bought some. Then went it suddenly went over 50 cents I immediately sold some and thought there is no way that this price maintains. Then I sold more when it went over a dollar. Couldn't believe my luck. Then after a while I realised that this is how it was gonna be. I bought more when it came down to 60 and 70 again. 1 dollar became the regular price. Now I might buy at the price I previously thought I was incredibly lucky to be selling at.

And now SGB is 52 cents. It seems way too high to me. But 50 cents seemed way to high for FLR and I was wrong. Is the same thing going to happen again? They are pumping this thing. Maybe it is going to pump high and then drop hard with FLR when flare launches. Maybe that is the plan. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, BillyOckham said:

I do think you’ve misunderstood ‘test’ and ‘canary’.   Songbird is NOT going away or dying.  It’s going to be the first release for every new dapp and token.

I understand very well the relationship of the songbird network to the Flare one, what concerns me is ...

15billion tokens have been created out of thin air and are now trading at 0.6 (ish). That's $9billion worth of value that appeared with a snap of the fingers by Thanos. When the mainnet launches, it will also appear like a fluctuation from the vacuum and materialize with a similar valuation. Possibly higher. People can and will trade this stuff and cash out, and every time someone cashes out, real $ is being taken out of the system (which needs to be replenished to maintain prices).

For the mainnet and canary networks to coexist, large sums will be involved, and at some level the real money must be apportioned somewhere. For both networks to maintain high valuations, a large amount of cash has to enter the system. If that $ comes from all the other crypto projects (that are also based on hot air and magic internet money), then funds can flow into SGB/FLR and sustain them. When (if) traffic moves substantially from SGB to FLR networks, then there is no reason to keep SGB going and it (we presume), will gradually decrease in activity, prices, liquidity, etc. My point is that there simply isn't any need for both networks, once the issues and problems are ironed out and they function well - unless of course they are so wildly popular that the amount of traffic exceeds the capacity of one network and having two proves beneficial. That could happen. 

[My concerns arise solely from a macro perspective].

EDIT:Anyway, whilst I typed this, SGB went up to 0.7, so balls to all that, lets keep riding the wave and hope the crash is slow and gentle

Edited by jbjnr
Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, jbjnr said:

EDIT:Anyway, whilst I typed this, SGB went up to 0.7, so balls to all that, lets keep riding the wave and hope the crash is slow and gentle

I hear your macro concerns but could counter argue….  any other crypto.

 

When you say ‘out of thin air’ it’s revealing of the underlying valuation proposition that powers your thinking.  Excellent thinking in normal markets.  But that valuation proposition is shot to hell by crypto where the true underlying proposition is speculation and a vague hope of one days utility.  One Elon tweet undercuts any fundamentals analysis.  
 

One day of course 95% of the air will deflate and leave the real value propositions in good stead.

Meanwhile Songbird will have been the trial arena for every new application that wants to run on Flare.  You would be mad as a project to bypass a soft launch on the canary network before committing to the main net.

That is what will keep Songbird alive for a long while to come in my opinion.  And as part of that…. it’s a parallel processor in the meanwhile.

Thanos did apparently create real value out of the hard work of the devs.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.