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SGB token price speculation back of the napkin just for fun calculations


Seoulite
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38 minutes ago, Ripley said:

Is KSM supply also 10% of DOT ? 

Yes that was a slip, I knew it was Dot.  Computing this we would expect if SGB settles at 40 cents then FLR would settle at 60 cents, which is about 3 x speculative prices on FLR.  So we should expect SGB to drop to 12 - 15 cents.  That would be a more sensible launch price, and higher than we mostly expected.

If my SGB comes online on eToro I would sell half at this price and stake the other half (maybe buying back at below 10 cents).  It would not be a huge amount of money compared to the amount I am expecting when FLR lifts off so  would not be taking big risks.

This is an exciting launch so far.

Edited by Julian_Williams
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13 minutes ago, Julian_Williams said:

Yes that was a slip, I knew it was Dot.  Computing this we would expect if SGB settles at 40 cents then FLR would settle at 60 cents, which is about 3 x speculative prices on FLR.  So we should expect SGB to drop to 12 - 15 cents.  That would be a more sensible launch price, and higher than we mostly expected.

If my SGB comes online on eToro I would sell half at this price and stake the other half (maybe buying back at below 10 cents).  It would not be a huge amount of money compared to the amount I am expecting when FLR lifts off so  would not be taking big risks.

This is an exciting launch so far.

I think we will see a bit of FLRIOU -> SGB until Flare launches and then SGB -> FLR once Flare launches, on all exchanges that support trading of SGB and FLR (e.g. Bitrue, may be Poloniex) 

That said, I'm very unconcerned about the availability of trading pairs for SGB and FLR on exchanges because Flare/Songbird itself is effectively a cross-platform DEX, especially once Flare Finance comes online. I think it's going to be difficult to figure out how the prices might go because this feels like a very different setup than the usual network launches.

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5 minutes ago, Ripley said:

So, what would happen if Bitrue runs an FTSO? Will folks really withdraw / sell ? How many "sales" we see on Bitrue are really about moving them to a wallet so add to the FTSO?

image.thumb.png.8a0cafd686d16593ee55fa08cdb6ac82.png

This is actually a really good idea. I bet this is what Flare pitched to the exchanges to get so many to participate. Exchanges become FTSOs and use things like PowerPiggy to get people to delegate to them. The exchange gets to keep a percentage of the rewards (currently 20%) for being a data provider. Flare gets raw price feeds from the exchanges - the ultimate clean data. Everybody wins.

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2 hours ago, brianwalden said:

This is actually a really good idea. I bet this is what Flare pitched to the exchanges to get so many to participate. Exchanges become FTSOs and use things like PowerPiggy to get people to delegate to them. The exchange gets to keep a percentage of the rewards (currently 20%) for being a data provider. Flare gets raw price feeds from the exchanges - the ultimate clean data. Everybody wins.

I don't know what an FTSO is, but it sounds like the exchanges do the work of staking/farming for their customers?  On eToro the ADA are automatically stakes by eToro who give their customers rewards.  I think it is a big marketing advantage if exchanges arrange user friendly systems for the less tech savvy members.

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1 minute ago, Julian_Williams said:

I don't know what an FTSO is, but it sounds like the exchanges do the work of staking/farming for their customers?  On eToro the ADA are automatically stakes by eToro who give their customers rewards.  I think it is a big marketing advantage if exchanges arrange user friendly systems for the less tech savvy members.

Yes. That's essentially what it is. You can make a little more of your do it yourself, but you can do it through your exchange with one click and don't have to worry about it.

FTSO stands for Flare Time Series Oracle. It's the whole price feed system for the network. It's basically the Flare equivalent of staking only its purpose is to provide prices, not validate transactions.

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1 hour ago, brianwalden said:

Yes. That's essentially what it is. You can make a little more of your do it yourself, but you can do it through your exchange with one click and don't have to worry about it.

FTSO stands for Flare Time Series Oracle. It's the whole price feed system for the network. It's basically the Flare equivalent of staking only its purpose is to provide prices, not validate transactions.

It’s more analogous to what Chainlink is to Ethereum, except that it’s built into the primary platform isn’t it ?

ADA (or any other proof of stake) rewards system is crucial to consensus on those systems. This difference is critical because ultimately proof of stake networks help their early investors maintain their consensus power by raising more funds from newer investors and using inflation. While I do not agree with the assessment, the nature of this mechanism is why the SEC claims that PoS are a Ponzi scheme/possibly a securities offering.

With FTSO, it’s simply a reward for a utility. The reward doesn’t give you additional consensus power. You’re free to give your own price feeds and earn your own rewards. So when you’re delegating votes, you’re really paying an existing FTSO to submit feeds on your behalf.

Edited by Ripley
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35 minutes ago, Ripley said:

It’s more analogous to what Chainlink is to Ethereum, except that it’s built into the primary platform isn’t it ?

ADA (or any other proof of stake) rewards system is crucial to consensus on those systems. This difference is critical because ultimately proof of stake networks help their early investors maintain their consensus power by raising more funds from newer investors and using inflation. While I do not agree with the assessment, the nature of this mechanism is why the SEC claims that PoS are a Ponzi scheme/possibly a securities offering.

With FTSO, it’s simply a reward for a utility. The reward doesn’t give you additional consensus power. You’re free to give your own price feeds and earn your own rewards. So when you’re delegating votes, you’re really paying an existing FTSO to submit feeds on your behalf.

I don't really see the difference. If the network truly is distributed than there is no such thing as consensus power. No one validator has the power to influence the network. Both validators and data providers provide a utility to the network, it's just a different utility.

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19 minutes ago, brianwalden said:

I don't really see the difference. If the network truly is distributed than there is no such thing as consensus power. No one validator has the power to influence the network. Both validators and data providers provide a utility to the network, it's just a different utility.

That’s not how proof of stake works though. Concentration of assets = concentration of consensus. With PoW, it’s a bit indirect - concentration of money = control of hash/mining power = concentration of consensus. It’s also why XRP was misunderstood. Everyone assumed that because Ripple has a lot of XRP, they controlled the consensus. Because that was PoW and PoS was where everyone was coming from.

P.S. What I meant was, there is no way for PoS to be truly distributed. Early investors are always at an advantage with consensus power.

Edited by Ripley
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5 minutes ago, Ripley said:

That’s not how proof of stake works though. Concentration of assets = concentration of consensus. With PoW, it’s a bit indirect - concentration of money = control of hash/mining power = concentration of consensus. It’s also why XRP was misunderstood. Everyone assumed that because Ripple has a lot of XRP, they controlled the consensus. Because that was PoW and PoS was where everyone was coming from.

P.S. What I meant was, there is no way for PoS to be truly distributed. Early investors are always at an advantage with consensus power.

Don't most PoS networks put a limit on a validator's power though? If they hit a certain threshold, additional coins staked stop counting? I could be totally wrong, PoS isn't really in my wheelhouse.

I think early Flare investors are at just as much of an advantage. It's just the nature of these things.

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40 minutes ago, brianwalden said:

I think early Flare investors are at just as much of an advantage. It's just the nature of these things.

Agreed from a valuation perspective. Especially XRP holders, in terms of zero risk. Of course you might count investing in XRP itself as sufficient risk 😆

We’re probably splitting hairs but ultimately I don’t like consensus mechanisms where concentration = centralisation because ultimately that’s decentralisation in name only (DINO, trademark) 🙂 It’s a big reason why I don’t hold any PoW or PoS tokens. I’d much rather just invest into securities. I own a part of the company that way.

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This hovering around 30 cents is interesting. I think we can safely rule out prices like less than 1 cent. A catastrophic drop like that is unlikely to happen now unless the network fails.

Interesting that the FLR IOU price seems to be correcting itself in relation to the SGB price. This makes sense because people are moving out of FLR into SGB (which gives rewards right now) and also the SGB price is a truer reflection of supply and demand. The chart for an SGB/FLR chart would be fascinating. 

I bought some at 30 cents, which I still think is high. My other orders are lower than but I could be wrong so I got in a little. Let’s see how the day goes.

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1 minute ago, Seoulite said:

This hovering around 30 cents is interesting

Projecting further... 

Once some (sandbox) apps go live, the demand for SGB will likely face upwards pressure.

Then, when those same apps (someday) go live on Flare, we'll see downwards pressure on SGB, as users migrate out of the sandbox and into the Big Time. 

It will be interesting to watch these dynamics play out.

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