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SGB token price speculation back of the napkin just for fun calculations


Seoulite
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16 minutes ago, BillyOckham said:

Hmm,   dunno about that, you may be partly right.  But the eighteen months shouldn’t factor in much.  
 

Kusama started, then dropped for three months before beginning to gradually climb and eventually (after six more months) rocketing.

And Songbird will be exactly equivalent as a canary network in that the experimental projects will run there first just like Kusama.  So I don’t see anything dramatically different in the SGB-FLR relationship omoared to the KSM-DOT relationship.

So to me 5 cents would be a bad and poor start.

 

if Sgb is 10% of Flr, and Starts at 5cents, that would put FLR at 50 cents - that would be a high start out value.  It is over half where XRP is now.

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Where this 5 cents come from?

If total supply of 15b is airdropped, how can this be valued to 750m dollars?

I will open orders at 0.0005, to 0.005. If they get filled, awesome, if not.. I will just use that money for FLR

Edited by Kiwi
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10 minutes ago, Seoulite said:

there’s nothing built on it yet unlike Flare which has a number of large products and projects announced and ready to go.

Any one of which can spend five minutes changing endpoints and suddenly be live on Songbird.   :) 

 

Do those similar cap coins have this relationship to XRP, LTC, DOGE etc?  Smart contracts for these large cap tokens?

 

I’m puzzled that others aren’t seeing this.

 

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14 minutes ago, Julian_Williams said:

if Sgb is 10% of Flr, and Starts at 5cents, that would put FLR at 50 cents - that would be a high start out value.  It is over half where XRP is now.

You can make an argument that Flare (and hence to an even larger extent it’s lower supply canary coin SGB) should be valued higher than XRP.

 

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27 minutes ago, BillyOckham said:

Any one of which can spend five minutes changing endpoints and suddenly be live on Songbird.   :) 

 

Do those similar cap coins have this relationship to XRP, LTC, DOGE etc?  Smart contracts for these large cap tokens?

 

I’m puzzled that others aren’t seeing this.

 

I agree with you that on paper Songbird and Flare have great potential, but I think looking at the market, similar cap coins, where coins usually launch to, what has happened in the past, etc, I think 5 cents is about as good as we could hope for. 

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37 minutes ago, Kiwi said:

Where this 5 cents come from?

If total supply of 15b is airdropped, how can this be valued to 750m dollars?

I will open orders at 0.0005, to 0.005. If they get filled, awesome, if not.. I will just use that money for FLR

Read my original post. 5 cents would put Songbird within the group of similar cap coins in the top 200 on CMC. 

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23 minutes ago, BillyOckham said:

You can make an argument that Flare (and hence to an even larger extent it’s lower supply canary coin SGB) should be valued higher than XRP.

 

I expect Flare to be valued higher than *today’s XRP price* once F-Asset system is in full swing. But XRP is going to go up quite a bit too.

And here’s the reason why I’m leaning towards that hypothesis - 

  • Just mining F-Assets is going to give “rewards” in Spark, which can then be delegated for compounding “rewards”.
  • The initial F-Asset agent and probably the largest is Flare itself. And I think (guess) that they are not going to be selling off those XRP that they get custody of when people start wrapping because they would want to be conservative and not give any chance for a liquidation event. They are also the only ones to have the collateral necessary to support such large scale wrapping initially.
  • I’m hoping/expecting that this will result in a noticeable drop in XRP liquidity.
  • If XRP price goes up as a result, FLR price goes up too. While this is true for all supported assets, the relation is much stronger with XRP because of the 1:1 airdrop. And if FLR goes up, that pulls in more speculative action l, which increases rewards and so on…

I think this will take a few months to play out but I’m looking forward to see if I’m right on this.

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1 minute ago, PunishmentOfLuxury said:

15 minutes in and it's hovering around 50 cents. Very surprising, to say the least. I was hoping to pick up some more at one cent. :D

Yep my orders are decidedly lower than the current price. But let's see, it could do an Internet Computer and absolutely crater. I'd be surprised if it doesn't end up hovering around 10 cents. 50 cents is crazy for a brand new unproven canary network.

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1 hour ago, Seoulite said:

50 cents is crazy for a brand new unproven canary network.

I disagree because in theory it should be worth significantly more than XRP.

And you are correct to say it’s unproven but that’s what speculation is all about.  So I don’t think it’s crazy at all.  It’s people paying a discounted price on the potential of the network.  It’s not as though this is the first blockchain ever.  There are some fairly solid reasons to think it should have value.

 

Edited by BillyOckham
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1 hour ago, Seoulite said:

This is what we must fear:

 

Screenshot 2021-09-27 at 19.21.19.png

Should we fear it?  If we can predict a pattern we will know to to sell our FLR when they are launched and rebuy 20 times cheaper.  This is the sort of opportunity that only happens in crypto investment, and why investing in crypto is so rewarding for those who have put in the time following the markets, and so dangerous for newbies.

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22 minutes ago, BillyOckham said:

I disagree because in theory it should be worth significantly more than XRP.

And you are correct to say it’s unproven but that’s what speculation is all about.  So I don’t think it’s crazy at all.  It’s people paying a discounted price on the potential of the network.  It’s not as though this is the first blockchain ever.  There are some fairly solid reasons to think it should have value.

 

I dunno mate, I mean I am bullish but at the same time things need time to prove themselves. You need products and services and usage of the platform.

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13 minutes ago, Julian_Williams said:

Should we fear it?  If we can predict a pattern we will know to to sell our FLR when they are launched and rebuy 20 times cheaper.  This is the sort of opportunity that only happens in crypto investment, and why investing in crypto is so rewarding for those who have put in the time following the markets, and so dangerous for newbies.

That's a hell of a gamble though haha. I wouldn't like to make that call. Basically you are right or wrong and there is no in-between.

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