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SGB token price speculation back of the napkin just for fun calculations


Seoulite
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Now we can all see the SGB balance in our wallets the next thing we want to know is when can we delegate it and how much is it all worth.

The only other point of comparison is DOT/Kusama. Kusama is currently running at about 10% of the DOT market cap. Since there are no other examples, we have to take this as the standard for canary network value relative to the mother chain.

So the next question is, what is the value of Flare at current prices? Well we only have IOU prices, which are skewed in terms of supply and demand. However the Bitrue price is probably the closest we can come to 'the price people are willing to pay for 1 FLR token' right now. So that's $1.15. 

At 15 billion drop that gives FLR a market cap of around 17 billion, which would instantly put Flare at 11 on CMC. That is likely a bit high, especially in the beginning. The Bitrue price is also likely to be lower soon after launch as people sell off. Let's be conservative and put the FLR price at 50 cents. That's a 7.5 billion market cap, about 24th on CMC. That seems more reasonable. 

Following DOT/Kusama, with a drop of 15 billion that puts the SGB price at 5 cents a token. It would also put SGB about 110th on CMC, which also doesn't seem unreasonable right at the beginning. 

We can also look at similar supply tokens. A few examples are Digibyte (5 cents), Verge (2 cents), Reef (2 cents) and at the higher end IOST (6 cents), XINFIN (11 cents). XINFIN is currently 75th on CMC. 

So 5 cents a token seems like a decent guess.

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However is it possible that Songbird starts out like XINFIN did, basically worthless? It is possible but I think it is unlikely that SGB launches at lower than 1 cent for several reasons:

1. the project is much more visible than most starting tokens, which will lead to increased volume

2. the token will be immediately listed on a handful of exchanges, possibly one or two big ones. Bitrue of course will be there which is fantastic.

3. the token will offer yield without staking

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SGB will be a high risk investment for the foreseeable future, but high risk also generally means higher rewards. Anyway, what do you guys think? Is it way off? This is just for fun, we will see the price when we see it of course.

 

 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Seoulite said:

Now we can all see the SGB balance in our wallets the next thing we want to know is when can we delegate it and how much is it all worth.

The only other point of comparison is DOT/Kusama. Kusama is currently running at about 10% of the DOT market cap. Since there are no other examples, we have to take this as the standard for canary network value relative to the mother chain.

So the next question is, what is the value of Flare at current prices? Well we only have IOU prices, which are skewed in terms of supply and demand. However the Bitrue price is probably the closest we can come to 'the price people are willing to pay for 1 FLR token' right now. So that's $1.15. 

At 15 billion drop that gives FLR a market cap of around 17 billion, which would instantly put Flare at 11 on CMC. That is likely a bit high, especially in the beginning. The Bitrue price is also likely to be lower soon after launch as people sell off. Let's be conservative and put the FLR price at 50 cents. That's a 7.5 billion market cap, about 24th on CMC. That seems more reasonable. 

Following DOT/Kusama, with a drop of 15 billion that puts the SGB price at 5 cents a token. It would also put SGB about 110th on CMC, which also doesn't seem unreasonable right at the beginning. 

We can also look at similar supply tokens. A few examples are Digibyte (5 cents), Verge (2 cents), Reef (2 cents) and at the higher end IOST (6 cents), XINFIN (11 cents). XINFIN is currently 75th on CMC. 

So 5 cents a token seems like a decent guess.

--

However is it possible that Songbird starts out like XINFIN did, basically worthless? It is possible but I think it is unlikely that SGB launches at lower than 1 cent for several reasons:

1. the project is much more visible than most starting tokens, which will lead to increased volume

2. the token will be immediately listed on a handful of exchanges, possibly one or two big ones. Bitrue of course will be there which is fantastic.

3. the token will offer yield without staking

--

SGB will be a high risk investment for the foreseeable future, but high risk also generally means higher rewards. Anyway, what do you guys think? Is it way off? This is just for fun, we will see the price when we see it of course.

 

 

 

 

My expectation is that it will start off with less than 1 cent, but might start gaining value once the F-Asset system is turned on.

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Maybe I am a total pessimist here but to be honest I do not think SGB will be over a cent and probably even that seems pretty high. It is going to be used for testing purposes right? Cannot see how it can raise and hold any serious value.

I also cannot see FLR anywhere near 50c. That would be crazy. I will be happy with anything above 10c.

Most people will see FLR and SGB as "free money". And there going to dump their bags asap when the tokens are launched to grab those money.

Hope I am wrong and FLR/SGB tottaly moon though :P

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1 hour ago, Panopticon said:

Maybe I am a total pessimist here but to be honest I do not think SGB will be over a cent and probably even that seems pretty high. It is going to be used for testing purposes right? Cannot see how it can raise and hold any serious value.

It is going to be like Flare Junior, or like the Wild West version of Flare. It will be able to do everything Flare did but it will be a bit more fast and loose. How does Kusama hold any value?

1 hour ago, Panopticon said:

I also cannot see FLR anywhere near 50c. That would be crazy. I will be happy with anything above 10c.

Flare IOUs have been trading above fifty cents on bitrue since March. It might be time to reconsider the use of the word crazy. This is good news.

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Very few people will be able to dump for any significant or worthwhile amount considering it's 15& being distributed. For most people that is going to amount to a very small cash equivalent, right? 

I understand it's all relative and some would be happy to just quickly grab $100, but I don't think that's quite how crypto mindset works these days. Holding is where the value is. 

*On a side note, I am just riding along paying so little attention to this. I assume Coinbase will never send me any SGB and there is nothing I can do about that now. I also assume they will magically send me FLR in a month or so. I hope that is not a naïve assumption. 

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On 9/17/2021 at 7:20 PM, Seoulite said:

Following DOT/Kusama, with a drop of 15 billion that puts the SGB price at 5 cents a token. It would also put SGB about 110th on CMC, which also doesn't seem unreasonable right at the beginning. 

We can also look at similar supply tokens. A few examples are Digibyte (5 cents), Verge (2 cents), Reef (2 cents) and at the higher end IOST (6 cents), XINFIN (11 cents). XINFIN is currently 75th on CMC. 

So 5 cents a token seems like a decent guess.

Looks like the launch price on Bitrue is $0.05. Looking forward to seeing the price action.

I still see about 750/800M SGB delegated on the FTSO and I don’t think any significant sales are coming from that.

I still think that once the S-Asset system is turned on, it will start to prop up the price somewhat, even though people will be reluctant to wrap too many tokens given that it is a canary network.

I’m sure that some of the FTSO teams are happy that they have a chance to tune their code on Songbird before Mainnet launch.

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32 minutes ago, Ripley said:

Looks like the launch price on Bitrue is $0.05. Looking forward to seeing the price action.

I still see about 750/800M SGB delegated on the FTSO and I don’t think any significant sales are coming from that.

I still think that once the S-Asset system is turned on, it will start to prop up the price somewhat, even though people will be reluctant to wrap too many tokens given that it is a canary network.

I’m sure that some of the FTSO teams are happy that they have a chance to tune their code on Songbird before Mainnet launch.

5 cents is really good. I was expecting a fraction of a cent. We'll see which way it trades after launch.

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50 minutes ago, brianwalden said:

5 cents is really good. I was expecting a fraction of a cent. We'll see which way it trades after launch.

Yep, I’m quite surprised at that price, even if it causes a dump right away. I was on the “nearly worthless initially” bandwagon.

If Songbird does anything other than massive dumps until Flare does, that hypes up Flare that much more IMO. 

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It’s not good if you consider the relationship to Flare.  In theory the IOUs of Flare should be giving some indication of Flare price and SGB is much smaller supply.

 

So like Kusama is way more expensive to buy than DOT Songbird in theory should be also.

Depending on how you value it,  they could be worth several (or more) times higher than Flare (which may well be more valuable than XRP).

 

So to me,  5 cents is a long way less than it should be settling in on later.

 

Edited by BillyOckham
Damned autoincorrect
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2 minutes ago, BillyOckham said:

It’s not good if you consider the relationship to Flare.  In theory the IOUs of Flare should be giving some induction of Flare price and SGB is much smaller supply.

 

So like Kusama is way more expensive to buy than DOT Songbird in theory should be also.

Depending on how you value it it could be worth several or more times higher than Flare which may well be more valuable than XRP.

 

So to me 5 cents is a long way less than it should settle on later.

I think it's a different situation. Songbird is launching just a few months before Flare is expected to launch. Wasn't Kusama launched more that 18 months before Polkadot? Polkadot also has restrictions on how many protocols can operate which makes Kusama more valuable for protocols that don't make the cut.

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2 minutes ago, brianwalden said:

I think it's a different situation. Songbird is launching just a few months before Flare is expected to launch. Wasn't Kusama launched more that 18 months before Polkadot? Polkadot also has restrictions on how many protocols can operate which makes Kusama more valuable for protocols that don't make the cut.

Hmm,   dunno about that, you may be partly right.  But the eighteen months shouldn’t factor in much.  
 

Kusama started, then dropped for three months before beginning to gradually climb and eventually (after six more months) rocketing.

And Songbird will be exactly equivalent as a canary network in that the experimental projects will run there first just like Kusama.  So I don’t see anything dramatically different in the SGB-FLR relationship omoared to the KSM-DOT relationship.

So to me 5 cents would be a bad and poor start.

 

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12 minutes ago, BillyOckham said:

Hmm,   dunno about that, you may be partly right.  But the eighteen months shouldn’t factor in much.  
 

Kusama started, then dropped for three months before beginning to gradually climb and eventually (after six more months) rocketing.

And Songbird will be exactly equivalent as a canary network in that the experimental projects will run there first just like Kusama.  So I don’t see anything dramatically different in the SGB-FLR relationship omoared to the KSM-DOT relationship.

So to me 5 cents would be a bad and poor start.

 

As I wrote above, 5 cents is well within the range for similar cap coins. There’s no reason for Songbird to immediately launch into the top 50 coins, there’s nothing built on it yet unlike Flare which has a number of large products and projects announced and ready to go.

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