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Is this somewhat of a decent exit plan?


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I'm an amateur with charts and I really have no clue most of the time how to read them and do all that TA jazz.

But from a quick glance at the weekly charts of XRPUSD and XRPBTC, I've noticed every bullrun XRP has had in the past, both charts printed 3-4 significant consecutive green weekly candles before we reached an ATH and all was over. 

So would you say that waiting for a 3rd or 4th consecutive weekly candle is a half decent 'strategy' for an exit plan? Because to me, it seems it's done that every time so far.

Of course in that last weekly candle alone the price could still more than double within that same week, but at least I'd have an idea that I should probably be exiting soon. 

@Plikk  @Seoulite  and anyone else willing to chime in, cheers. 

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1847819430_Screenshot(1650).thumb.png.cfad1f0d5de8c2e3364c5c899eba5537.png

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It is unfair to ask others to devise your exit plans.  If someone were to say wait until after XRP hits an ATH or 5 dollars, and XRP were to reverse, you might feel aggrieved towards them.

The general advice is to decide targets and take money out in staggered amounts.

I intend to sell 65% of my XRP between ATH and 10 dollars.  It is a personal plan that reflects my circumstances.

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3 minutes ago, Julian_Williams said:

It is unfair to ask others to devise your exit plans.  If someone were to say wait until after XRP hits an ATH or 5 dollars, and XRP were to reverse, you might feel aggrieved towards them.

The general advice is to decide targets and take money out in staggered amounts.

I intend to sell 65% of my XRP between ATH and 10 dollars.  It is a personal plan that reflects my circumstances.

Oh of course not, any decision I make is in the end my decision, blaming anyone else is ridiculous. I was just trying to see whether I had any clue what I was considering lol.

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I agree that you will never hit the exact top or bottom. A professional trader (Forex, not crypto) that I follow says that pros don't try to pick tops and bottoms, instead they aim to get 'the meat of the move', basically a good chunk of the movement. 

Of course that is for people who are clicking trades day in day out. But the point stands that even the best don't know where the top is and they don't try to know.

With crypto my approach is to sell at levels that you are satisfied with. For example, I first bought ADA at 4.5 cents, and starting selling when I got to 10x. I unloaded everything around the previous ATH. Now it's much higher. Do I regret selling? Yes, a bit. But then I remember a couple of things to help me: 1) I am satisfied with 10x and above; any investor should be and we shouldn't lose sight of that. That's a great return. 2) I didn't know how high it would go and there was no way for me to know. I'm not perfect. 3) It could've gone back to 2 cents instead of $2. Hindsight bias is the cognitive bias that things seem like they were obviously going to happen AFTER they have happened. So people will say it was obvious that ADA would go above $2. It wasn't a year or six months ago. Hindsight bias is at play here.

So I think the best advice is what some others have said: have predetermined levels where you will sell predetermined amounts. Make sure you are happy with that now, and then stick to it when the time comes. The problem if you have no plan is in the euphoria of the bull market you won't want to sell, you will want to hold on, and hold on, and hold on. That might work well for you in the long run, but it might not. Pro traders identify where they are going to take profit before they even click the trade. 

For me with XRP I have a certain amount of profit I will take around the ATH, and then I will see how the chart is after that. I also intend to leave some XRP alone for the foreseeable future (just letting the trade run) but I'm certainly not doing that with my entire stack. I don't want to be crypto rich. I want some money in my pocket. 

Final point regarding your chart analysis: the problem is that there is no guarantee that the chart will repeat itself. Yes, it may be likely to repeat itself, but say it goes two weeks up then falls on the third? Or say it is three very modest green candles rather than big long ones? Identifying a price point to take profit at is better than selling on the candle in my humble opinion.

Just my two KRW.

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I think the very words ‘exit plan’ are foolish.

No one knows what this market will do.  Most of us think it will cycle again but that is not guaranteed.   So ‘exiting’ is not the wisest move.
 

Selling small portions as it rises is the best way in my opinion to ensure that you will get some actualised profits.  Selling all is crazy. Trying to time the top is a fools errand.

Even if you want to be mostly out of the market,  it would be wise to keep a small portion in case you were only in the foothills.

Opinions vary,  but selling more than three quarters seems to me a risky strategy. I think keep an open mind, consider achievable milestones as opportunities to sell and take some profit out.  Keep half the proceeds liquid to buy back in if there is a big fall and you think it’s not dead.

I veer to the HODL side so my sells will be small 5% ones that don’t make me cry, won’t change my life, but will add up to a good profit even if it all collapses.  (Assuming I’ve done a few sells…. I won’t have much if the market is a damp squib.)

 

Good luck to us all.

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On 8/22/2021 at 11:18 AM, billion said:

I'm an amateur with charts and I really have no clue most of the time how to read them and do all that TA jazz.

But from a quick glance at the weekly charts of XRPUSD and XRPBTC, I've noticed every bullrun XRP has had in the past, both charts printed 3-4 significant consecutive green weekly candles before we reached an ATH and all was over. 

So would you say that waiting for a 3rd or 4th consecutive weekly candle is a half decent 'strategy' for an exit plan? Because to me, it seems it's done that every time so far.

Of course in that last weekly candle alone the price could still more than double within that same week, but at least I'd have an idea that I should probably be exiting soon. 

@Plikk  @Seoulite  and anyone else willing to chime in, cheers. 

1681463886_Screenshot(1651).thumb.png.0c2aa75d5843b7a483ec8fb9b4e29bd9.png

 

1847819430_Screenshot(1650).thumb.png.cfad1f0d5de8c2e3364c5c899eba5537.png

 

Have you heard of the little old lady method of taking profits? When it doubles sell half. When it doubles again sell another half and so on. This ensures you always walk away in profit.

Every TA person will give you different answers. Check this one out 

Screenshot_20210825-205925.png

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