FLR price thread

[Seoulite]

Since there seems to be nothing to talk about right now except the price, let's return to the Bitrue FLR charts.

My predictions about the price have been absolutely wrong and so needless to say do not take this as financial advice and put this down to purely idle analysis to wile away the hours while we wait for Songbird to do something. 

OK so let's review what we have so far. The full chart:

The volume spikes that we see can be highly misleading so I'm not putting too much into those, but volume every day doesn't lie and so we can see that the volume has really dropped off. This is OK because the price isn't going anywhere and it's the accumulation phase. You need quiet periods in order to have crazy periods. 

The giddy highs of 4.3(!) XRP seem a long way off now, but looking at the chart they don't seem out of reach (in the way that say the ADA or the XRP ATH would've looked at the bottom of the bear). So we have a normal crypto chart: initial spike, some consolidation, then go go go followed by an equally sharp fall and then a long long period of sideways. A lot of crypto charts have looked like this and then they've gone back to ATHs. I am expecting the same in this chart eventually.

To me, the most significant area on the chart is this blue box. It seems that this is a significant area of support, as evidence by the previous bounces at the blue arrow. I would be very surprised if the price went below this, mainly because that is almost at zero. There is little reason for FLR to lose so much ground to XRP that we are seeing 0.1 XRP for one FLR. 

That said, I think it's possible that we will enter back into this range and bounce again. From here I am expecting a long slow grind down, similar to what we've seen on the XRPBTC chart. Still expecting a lot of price volatility on the Flare network launch, but until we know when that is it is very hard to put it on the chart. The low of this chart will be somewhere around 0.5 I think. I'd be surprised if it goes much lower. I am expecting the reason for it to go lower to be XRP upside and FLR basically holding steady. Let's see what happens.

Edited October 31, 2021 by Seoulite

[Seoulite]

Update: the chart is moving as expected. It's very similar to how XRPBTC moved for a long time: slow grind down then a sudden spike that just stops and then the grind continues lower.

[Seoulite]

Update: the grind has continued lower as expected. Saw a local bottom of .80 which is the lowest it has gone for a long while, but it stopped dead right there. Low volume. A big sudden sell could drive the price into the 60s or 70s, but I think it would pop right back up. We are in/very close to the significant range I pointed out in the first post, starting around .78 and down to .38. I am personally not expecting any lower than .50, or if it goes that low it will come straight back up. Full disclosure: I have been converting some XRP to FLR around the low 80s when my order has been filled by these wicks down. I am expecting no lower than the 60s or 70s, but I've been wrong before. 

Main reasons I'm converting some: 1) this has been my plan for some time, 2) when FLR eventually launches I will be able to use my FLR to make more FLR, something which cannot yet be done with XRP, 3) with crypto I think getting into anything early is the best play, that has always been my thinking with Flare.

 

[Seoulite]

Update: the grind goes on. Making a new low at 76.5 but progress is achingly slow. Volume is a trickle. Currently around 23k dollars in a 24 period. Even a very modest sudden sell could wipe the order book out. However, I think this is the calm before the storm. We have entered the critical area. I am now expecting a sudden surge in action anytime from now. The problem is it could grind like this for another month, or it could be over today. Only the big money knows. If it spikes down it will come back up. If it spikes up then it could be up a 100% in an hour or two. I am going to set some buy orders quite low and see if they get swept in. The spread is currently around 6% so buying market is a no-go. Exciting times ahead.

[Seoulite]

Another update because it is getting very interesting: price is grinding but we are now seeing some heavy defence of the price levels. We have a buy wall of almost 100% of the daily volume. For reference, that's like a 380 million XRP buy wall on Bitrue.

Of course buy walls can disappear at any time, but I think it is clear that we are entering an important phase. I am still guessing that we will see a sudden spike down followed by a wick back up. Wick will probably reach to .5 or .6, after which I think we will see some decent gains. 

[Seoulite]

It's been a while since we checked in on the FLR token so let's take a look.

This sharp pullback across the market has also pulled FLR down. It has in fact been losing ground since the SGB launch which makes sense, because SGB is paying out right now and your FLR tokens on Bitrue are just sitting there. 

This is an exciting development though because it means something is finally happening. The price has broken down out of this range that it has been in since June. This area around sixty looks like a pretty solid support, and I would be surprised if it went below that. Overall the FLR chart looks ready for upside at some point, although that could be any time in the next few months. I actually like this chart now, I think it is primed for a very solid move up when Flare finally launches. At least that's what I'm hoping for. Considering how SGB launched, with a spike and a drop but nowhere near as low as many were thinking, it is possible to FLR will also not drop anywhere near as low as some are expecting on launch and will just go. Anyway, the volume is so low compared to SGB now that this chart is becoming less significant as a data point. I think the performance of SGB will actually play a large role in determining the price that FLR moves to. If SGB takes off then I think FLR will start to follow. Anyway let's see.

 

 

[Seoulite]

The bottom was 58 cents so the sixty support seems to have held nicely. We need to be cautious because at the moment we are just moving back up within the previous range. This long down trend could still continue on, because we’ve seen multiple spikes up during these months that eventually just peter out. But it’s encouraging. I bought a bit more around 0.6 xrp, but I get the feeling that xrp is going to start moving soon so that’s all the converting I’m doing for now.

[Seoulite]

changed the name of the thread so we can have dedicated FLR and SGB price threads running

[Seoulite]

FLR getting shellacked by the XRP surge, which is to be expected. The good news is I still believe there is hard support at 0.6 XRP on the FLR/XRP chart. If that holds then we will see the FLR price climb with the XRP price to a certain extent. If it doesn't hold then there is no support below that and honestly it could go anywhere. How low will I be converting XRP to FLR? hmm tough to say, but if it gets as low as 0.2 or something like that it would be very hard to resist. 

[Seoulite]

On 11/3/2021 at 3:51 PM, Seoulite said:

The good news is I still believe there is hard support at 0.6 XRP on the FLR/XRP chart

This level is holding well under the XRP surge. Just like SGBXRP we are near the bottom of the range, 0.6 might well hold but wouldn't be surprised to see a break down and bounce around 0.5 or possibly lower. Would be surprised to see much lower than that unless XRP absolutely starts to rocket. Either way I am hoping and half-expecting that SGB and FLR will act in a similar way to how alts react to BTC going forward: while XRP surges they lose some ground and then after they make up that ground.

 

[Seoulite]

19 hours ago, Seoulite said:

0.6 might well hold but wouldn't be surprised to see a break down and bounce around 0.5 or possibly lower. Would be surprised to see much lower than that unless XRP absolutely starts to rocket.

 

We had the dip, went lower than I thought but bounced right back. Two main scenarios now: 1) this signals the bottom of the range of the upside begins, 2) nothing much changes and we see the continuous bleeding down, into the 50s and 40s at least.

[B088IN]

On 11/3/2021 at 6:51 AM, Seoulite said:

FLR getting shellacked by the XRP surge, which is to be expected. The good news is I still believe there is hard support at 0.6 XRP on the FLR/XRP chart. If that holds then we will see the FLR price climb with the XRP price to a certain extent. If it doesn't hold then there is no support below that and honestly it could go anywhere. How low will I be converting XRP to FLR? hmm tough to say, but if it gets as low as 0.2 or something like that it would be very hard to resist. 

Evening @Seoulite  do you mind me asking, are you setting a % of your XRP stack into FLR with the intent of holding until it goes live?

I was playing with the idea of converting some of my XRP to FLR using Bitrue but still not sure. I’m right in thinking it’s not actually a “live” coin still right? With that in mind I guess there is an inherent risk as there is no definite date of when it will go live correct?

[Seoulite]

46 minutes ago, B088IN said:

Evening @Seoulite  do you mind me asking, are you setting a % of your XRP stack into FLR with the intent of holding until it goes live?

I was playing with the idea of converting some of my XRP to FLR using Bitrue but still not sure. I’m right in thinking it’s not actually a “live” coin still right? With that in mind I guess there is an inherent risk as there is no definite date of when it will go live correct?

I have been buying FLR with fiat from the beginning of the listing, and also I have converted from XRP to FLR when I thought the price was right. I also converted back when the price was high. Basically back and forth. I did almost all of that before Songbird came live, although recently I did convert some xrp to flr at 0.6, but as you can see that would now be classed as a losing trade if I sold it now. 

I don't have a set percentage written down, but I do have a kind of point in my mind where I'm comfortable with the relative amounts I have. The real question is your last one: which is the best to hold right now?

I'll go through some of the value propositions I consider with FLR. This is how I've been making my decisions (rightly or wrongly, not financial advice).

- I know that when Flare goes live, I will be able to compound my FLR in the FTSO, and that the rewards will be highest in the beginning. This is a 'guaranteed' return, whereas holding XRP so far has just been about price appreciation

- FLR tokens will also be included in the Flare Finance snapshots which I think could be a decent value proposition in the future (that is part of my reason for buying FLR and SGB)

- However, as you say, we don't know when Flare is going to launch, and so that makes it very uncertain

- Also, when F-assets launch on Flare there will be returns to get from XRP itself, so that's also a factor

- Also, we are seeing increasing opportunities for DeFi with XRP, although many of these are either coming in the future or just proposals at the moment.

- The main attraction of XRP is still price appreciation. The problem is that FLR is the same now, just appreciation. So which has more potential? Well before Songbird launched you could argue that a quick spike was more likely for FLR (when it finally launched) but now we have Songbird the FLR token has become more inert, and so I guess that's why we see the price dropping off a bit. At the moment it seems like XRP is more likely to suddenly go on a run than FLR is, but that's just my opinion. 

- Having said all that, I don't like to move back and forth between assets too much. I only do it when I think the price is too high or too low to ignore. I have no plans to change the percentages I currently have. Because of my current financial situation I have no plans to introduce new fiat. I might consider changing XRP to FLR or vice versa but only if the price was ridiculously high or low. This price right now is relatively low, but as I said I've already bought at this level, and also FLR is a less attractive option right now than it was say 3 months ago. We have no idea when Flare will launch. The volume on Bitrue is very low (compared even to the SGB pairs) so that also makes it a bit more risky. 

I dunno, it's a very complicated call. Bottom line is I have kinda amounts that I'm comfortable with in my head, and I've gradually worked towards those. But they are not fixed or written down or anything. It's just a feeling based on the circumstances. Like right now I don't want to sell any more XRP, because it looks like XRP might start to make a move, and the lawsuit is closer than ever to being finished. 

This was a long rambling answer but it's the best I can do. We have to weigh up the competing value propositions and possibilities, and thanks to DeFi etc that has become a bit more complicated than just 'is this project good enough to moon?'

I'll say simply that I expect both the XRP price and the FLR price to be higher in the future than they are now, so I want a bit of both. That's more or less how I think about it. 

 

Edited November 9, 2021 by Seoulite

[CarsCoffee]

Took a $500 swing this morning at .72.  Up to .81 last check.  Thankful for this thread, I used it as a tool to make my decision. 

I have a good feeling about this project for some reason.  I can't back it up with any knowledge, bullet points, etc., just a gut feeling. 

 

Edited November 10, 2021 by CarsCoffee
Additional thought

[B088IN]

Sorry, forgot to say thanks to @Seoulite for the reply. Still on the fence, although I’m thinking I’ll wait for FLR to be released 👍