Poloniex and Bitrue FLR

[French]

Hello,

https://poloniex.com/exchange/USDT_XFLR : IOU XFLR = $ 0,35

https://www.bitrue.com/trade/flr_usdt : IOU FLR = $ 1,40

So I've heard a kinda lucrative rumour that I've not been able to verify hence my topic. 

Flare Community on Twitter said if you buy let's say 1000 XFLR (for $ 350) on Poloniex, you get 15% (150 FLR) of it at the launch of Flare Network, and the 85% that remains in the 2-3 years to follow.

If you put $ 350 on Bitrue, you'd get 250 FLR, for the same price, but 100% of it at the start of Flare Network.

The huge gap is hurting my logical sense. What do you guys think about that theory ? I've tried to reach Poloniex support but I didn't get any answer.

Source : 

 

 

 

[Seoulite]

1 hour ago, Alexandre said:

Hello,

https://poloniex.com/exchange/USDT_XFLR : IOU XFLR = $ 0,35

https://www.bitrue.com/trade/flr_usdt : IOU FLR = $ 1,40

So I've heard a kinda lucrative rumour that I've not been able to verify hence my topic. 

Flare Community on Twitter said if you buy let's say 1000 XFLR (for $ 350) on Poloniex, you get 15% (150 FLR) of it at the launch of Flare Network, and the 85% that remains in the 2-3 years to follow.

If you put $ 350 on Bitrue, you'd get 250 FLR, for the same price, but 100% of it at the start of Flare Network.

The huge gap is hurting my logical sense. What do you guys think about that theory ? I've tried to reach Poloniex support but I didn't get any answer.

Source : 

 

 

 

It is a question of opportunity costs and how much rewards can compound from the beginning.

In the video he claims you will be able to sell your Polo FLR after the launch, which I don’t think is correct. How would polo manage the percentages of people started trading the FLR they are going to get in the future. Seems like a clusterf**k.

Buying on polo means you are locking up some of that capital for at least a year or two. In the end you will get more, sure. But buying on Bitrue gives you instant ability to use that FLR to gain more spark, which will be higher in the beginning. Also it gives you more of the Flare Finance airdrop when they do the snapshot a month after launch.

It’s not obvious which is the better investment. I personally have been accumulating on both, but recently I think I have put more money into Bitrue. I trust the bitrue price more because it is a simpler representation of the price of one FLR. On polo the price includes things like opportunity cost that are impossible to calculate before the network launch and participation really begins.

[Seoulite]

Further to my point in the video, if you are able to sell 100% off your FLR on polo once the launch happens then yes it may well be a better bet. But that has not been confirmed and personally I don’t think it is likely. Polo would need to create an entirely different trading pair specially for trading your future airdrop allocation. Since there would also be a pair for buying FLR straight up, there would almost certainly be a lower price for the “get it later” FLR, likely the same price difference that we have now between Bitrue and Polo, but maybe even bigger because you are only getting 2-4% every month without the big 15% drop in the beginning.

Edited June 13, 2021 by Seoulite

[EasterBunny]

After the FLR launch, neither Bitrue or Polo will receive more than 15%. Neither exchange is allowing withdrawals because the tokens simply don't exist. FLR is 100% and IOU right now. If Polo is going to give out 100% of the tokens at launch, then it'll be 15% real and 85% IOU. I would expect that they will have to have strict withdrawal limits.

The prices will equalize when people are able to withdraw and take advantage of arbitrage opportunities. I would guess the initial price will be closer to the .35 than 1.4, but we shall see.

[Seoulite]

1 hour ago, EasterBunny said:

After the FLR launch, neither Bitrue or Polo will receive more than 15%. Neither exchange is allowing withdrawals because the tokens simply don't exist. FLR is 100% and IOU right now. If Polo is going to give out 100% of the tokens at launch, then it'll be 15% real and 85% IOU. I would expect that they will have to have strict withdrawal limits.

The prices will equalize when people are able to withdraw and take advantage of arbitrage opportunities. I would guess the initial price will be closer to the .35 than 1.4, but we shall see.

No this is what I’m saying, if they let you sell your 85% IOUs on Polo, then the person buying them is basically buying your airdrop allocation, right? So that means whatever they buy, they will need to wait to be given 2-3% of that every month. 

The current polo price reflects this PLUS the 15% you get on day one, hence polo has basically traded at 1/5 of bitrue most of the time, which is about right. But if you are getting only 2 percent a month, I would expect that IOU price to be much lower, maybe 10% of bitrue, maybe even less. You are locking up capital for 2 years, and hoping the price doesn’t drop more, and only withdrawing 2% a month. That seems like a crappy proposition to me.

[EasterBunny]

1 hour ago, Seoulite said:

No this is what I’m saying, if they let you sell your 85% IOUs on Polo, then the person buying them is basically buying your airdrop allocation, right? So that means whatever they buy, they will need to wait to be given 2-3% of that every month. 

Agreed. They could be differentiating between tokens that have vested, and ones that haven't for this to work. (I have no idea what Polo is going to do, I don't use them)

If you take a weighted average of the vested FLR token 15% and the IOU 85% it should equal the price as listed on Polo. Assume the vested token is worth the same as FLR trading on Bitrue. Solve for the IOU price on Polo.

IOU*0.85+1.4(FLR price on Bitrue)*0.15 = 0.35 (price on Polo). This gives an IOU token value of 0.18 on Polo.

This sounds like a convenient way to explain the difference, but I think in reality there has not been any good price discovery for FLR. You can't trade between exchanges and it's a VERY illiquid market. I would not be surprised to see 0.2, 2 or both within the first month.

 

[Seoulite]

59 minutes ago, EasterBunny said:

This sounds like a convenient way to explain the difference, but I think in reality there has not been any good price discovery for FLR. You can't trade between exchanges and it's a VERY illiquid market. I would not be surprised to see 0.2, 2 or both within the first month.

Disagree with this. The volume on the Bitrue FLRUSD pair alone would be enough to put it in the 100-200 coins on CMC in terms of volume. If you add the FLRXRP pair on Bitrue plus Polo and ZB it will comfortably be in that range every single day. Are you saying there is no price discovery for every coin that is not in the top 100?

Also I get what you mean about the inability to arbitrage, but over the period of the last 4 or 5 months, if one of the prices was way off you would expect to see some convergence as people choose say Polo over Bitrue. That this hasn't been the case, and that Polo has traded more or less at 20% of Bitrue most of the time, I am inclined to believe what the chart says: people are willing to pay this price for one FLR right now. 

Around the launch I am expecting a lot of volatility, but I think 20 cents for any long period of time is now out of the question. The F-asset system alone, at a very modest amount of minting and high levels of collateralization, puts the price floor around 20-30 cents. And that is just one factor in the price. I think it is very likely that Flare debuts as a top 20 coin, which would put the price around 50 cents to 1 dollar. 

[EasterBunny]

Where are you seeing that volume? I see 43k USDT on Polo and 144K on Bitrue, Which is only a fraction of the volume for a top 20 coin on either exchange.

12 hours ago, Seoulite said:

I am inclined to believe what the chart says: people are willing to pay this price for one FLR right now. 

There must be a lot of pessimism about the future price of FLR then. I suspect that the price on Bitrue and on Polo will converge in a matter of weeks after launch. I would be very surprised if that price difference continues to hold.

I do hope it ends up in the $.5-1 range.

[Seoulite]

1 hour ago, EasterBunny said:

Where are you seeing that volume? I see 43k USDT on Polo and 144K on Bitrue, Which is only a fraction of the volume for a top 20 coin on either exchange.

No the volume is representative of a 100-200 coin, as I said in the original post. After launch, when the number of pairs will be much bigger, we will see bigger volume.

1 hour ago, EasterBunny said:

. I would be very surprised if that price difference continues to hold.

Not entirely sure what you mean about pessimism. The price difference is due to the different release schedules. Bitrue is the price of one FLR right now nectar it is the most direct exchange: pay this amount and you will get 1 FLR at launch. 

Anyway as I’ve said for months here, if these prices are astronomically high then why aren’t people selling? A mystery indeed.