Flare IOU price speculation heading into the launch

[Seoulite]

For months I've been arguing here that the FLR IOU prices have been meaningful. People understandably claimed that the price is massively inflated, and I thought so too a few months back, but now I am convinced this is a closer reflection of the kind of price levels we can expect after launch. I think this for two reasons. Firstly, the price hasn't fallen for months. If this price was massively inflated we would expect a very significant fall, but the price has not fallen below $1 except for the last few days, where it bounced at 80 cents. This is hardly the 10 cent levels that many people are predicting. Second, it seems that the IOU price is loosely linked to the XRP price. While XRP is at these levels and higher, I don't think it makes sense that FLR would be significantly lower, like 5-10 times lower. I just don't see it, considering the token dynamics at play in the Flare network. 

So this is what I am expecting in the run up to launch. (I am focusing on the Bitrue chart because for various reasons I think it is the truest reflection of the price of 1 FLR)

This current fall was expected over a week ago, although admittedly I thought it would stop around 1.60. The next moves depend somewhat on XRP moving up, but right now I am expecting a steady rise until launch, likely peaking just before launch. The top could be anywhere, higher than $2.50 certainly, possibly higher than $3. At launch I am expecting a very quick reversal, likely lower than this low, so probably to around 60 cents. It is possible it will spike to very low numbers but I doubt it will stay there. Around the launch I am expecting it to be very volatile, a quick reversal and then perhaps several days of extreme volatility before we start a steady rise. Something like this:

The FLRXRP chart is much trickier. It is forming a very strong base at this level, and such a tight range usually means a quick breakout one way or the other. I could see us breaking the lows here, maybe 0.7 XRP, but after that I would expect higher levels again. Fully expect a return at some point to 2.5 - 4 XRP kind of levels. Of course a lot of this depends on XRP, if it is mooning then I wouldn't necessarily expect FLR to follow it, especially before launch. After launch bets are off, as the number of pairs will be much bigger, the number of participations and supply/demand will be completely different from now.

Anyway it's going to be an exciting month leading up to the launch. Given that I am predicting a very sharp fall on launch, you might think I am planning to sell and buy back. I am not going to do that. I intend to buy more lower, but I don't want to risk what I have. I could be wrong, and this thing could go into orbit once it's available. In general I don't like trying to sell and buy back, and I won't do it now. Especially considering how volatile this will probably be, I think it's more trouble than it's worth. I intend to move some profits from other coins into money for buying more FLR lower. In this drop I bought more at $1, and didn't have any fiat left to buy at 80 cents. In general I am only trying to buy under a dollar right now. I hope to pick some up at 60 cents or less when the launch happens.

 

[Julian_Williams]

I think is is incredibly hard to second guess the price because this launch is unique.  I will be really happy if FLR is anywhere near a dollar.

For myself I will hold my FLR and invest in the new tech it opens up.  Exciting times ahead.

[Seoulite]

5 minutes ago, Julian_Williams said:

I think is is incredibly hard to second guess the price because this launch is unique.  I will be really happy if FLR is anywhere near a dollar.

For myself I will hold my FLR and invest in the new tech it opens up.  Exciting times ahead.

I agree the price AFTER the launch is hard to predict because of the tokenomics involved, but so far this chart has behaved like most other charts. I don't think it is so mysterious. After, then yes it will take some time to see what affects the price, how it moves, what effect these F-assets and yield and inflation are all having. 

[Julian_Williams]

1 minute ago, Seoulite said:

I agree the price AFTER the launch is hard to predict because of the tokenomics involved, but so far this chart has behaved like most other charts. I don't think it is so mysterious. After, then yes it will take some time to see what affects the price, how it moves, what effect these F-assets and yield and inflation are all having. 

anyway I really appreciate your postings.  I have no idea what to expect

XRP just hit 99 cents - I think it broke through a resistance point?

[Seoulite]

I would add that this is the Poloniex chart. It looks pretty similar to the Bitrue chart, as you would expect. My rough feeling is that Polo has traded at around 1/5 of the Bitrue price, which makes a certain amount of sense, although I don't know how people are calculating the price of the 'opportunity cost'.

[Guest]

13 minutes ago, Seoulite said:

I would add that this is the Poloniex chart. It looks pretty similar to the Bitrue chart, as you would expect. My rough feeling is that Polo has traded at around 1/5 of the Bitrue price, which makes a certain amount of sense, although I don't know how people are calculating the price of the 'opportunity cost'.

Should we be looking at FLR/XRP charts on those exchanges instead ? At least on Bitrue, it has been remarkably stable at 1.3x XRP.

Edited May 25, 2021 by Ripley

[Seoulite]

59 minutes ago, Ripley said:

Should we be looking at FLR/XRP charts on those exchanges instead ? At least on Bitrue, it has been remarkably stable at 1.3x XRP.

Yes I put that chart in my original post. It is tricky because the chart is much harder to read, also the volume is extremely low, generally much lower than the FLRUSD chart on Bitrue. That leads me to think it is not such a significant chart (at the moment at least) but who knows how it will come into play later. Remarkably stable is right. It is being held there. Hard to say where it will go next because XRP has such a potential for volatility itself.

[brianwalden]

1 hour ago, Seoulite said:

For months I've been arguing here that the FLR IOU prices have been meaningful. People understandably claimed that the price is massively inflated, and I thought so too a few months back, but now I am convinced this is a closer reflection of the kind of price levels we can expect after launch. I think this for two reasons. Firstly, the price hasn't fallen for months. If this price was massively inflated we would expect a very significant fall, but the price has not fallen below $1 except for the last few days, where it bounced at 80 cents. This is hardly the 10 cent levels that many people are predicting. Second, it seems that the IOU price is loosely linked to the XRP price. While XRP is at these levels and higher, I don't think it makes sense that FLR would be significantly lower, like 5-10 times lower. I just don't see it, considering the token dynamics at play in the Flare network. 

So this is what I am expecting in the run up to launch. (I am focusing on the Bitrue chart because for various reasons I think it is the truest reflection of the price of 1 FLR)

This current fall was expected over a week ago, although admittedly I thought it would stop around 1.60. The next moves depend somewhat on XRP moving up, but right now I am expecting a steady rise until launch, likely peaking just before launch. The top could be anywhere, higher than $2.50 certainly, possibly higher than $3. At launch I am expecting a very quick reversal, likely lower than this low, so probably to around 60 cents. It is possible it will spike to very low numbers but I doubt it will stay there. Around the launch I am expecting it to be very volatile, a quick reversal and then perhaps several days of extreme volatility before we start a steady rise. Something like this:

The FLRXRP chart is much trickier. It is forming a very strong base at this level, and such a tight range usually means a quick breakout one way or the other. I could see us breaking the lows here, maybe 0.7 XRP, but after that I would expect higher levels again. Fully expect a return at some point to 2.5 - 4 XRP kind of levels. Of course a lot of this depends on XRP, if it is mooning then I wouldn't necessarily expect FLR to follow it, especially before launch. After launch bets are off, as the number of pairs will be much bigger, the number of participations and supply/demand will be completely different from now.

Anyway it's going to be an exciting month leading up to the launch. Given that I am predicting a very sharp fall on launch, you might think I am planning to sell and buy back. I am not going to do that. I intend to buy more lower, but I don't want to risk what I have. I could be wrong, and this thing could go into orbit once it's available. In general I don't like trying to sell and buy back, and I won't do it now. Especially considering how volatile this will probably be, I think it's more trouble than it's worth. I intend to move some profits from other coins into money for buying more FLR lower. In this drop I bought more at $1, and didn't have any fiat left to buy at 80 cents. In general I am only trying to buy under a dollar right now. I hope to pick some up at 60 cents or less when the launch happens.

 

I've been coming around to your view. I wouldn't be surprised if FLR ends up looking something like Internet Computer.

[Neurotoxin]

9 hours ago, Seoulite said:

The next moves depend somewhat on XRP moving up, but right now I am expecting a steady rise until launch, likely peaking just before launch. The top could be anywhere, higher than $2.50 certainly, possibly higher than $3.

 

9 hours ago, Seoulite said:

The FLRXRP chart is much trickier. It is forming a very strong base at this level, and such a tight range usually means a quick breakout one way or the other. I could see us breaking the lows here, maybe 0.7 XRP, but after that I would expect higher levels again. Fully expect a return at some point to 2.5 - 4 XRP kind of levels. Of course a lot of this depends on XRP, if it is mooning then I wouldn't necessarily expect FLR to follow it, especially before launch.

Ahh, it’s funny/nice to see XRP behave like a Bitcoin of sorts, causing/leading price movements on other digital assets. They grow up so fast :’) 

[Seoulite]

28 minutes ago, Neurotoxin said:

 

Ahh, it’s funny/nice to see XRP behave like a Bitcoin of sorts, causing/leading price movements on other digital assets. They grow up so fast :’) 

Don't get used to it, I think after the launch it will be very different.

[Montoya]

I would be interested in hearing the different tax postures US citizens are planning on adopting regarding the token. I personally like the "restricted stock" approach mentioned by --- I believe it was KarmaCoverage --- but unsure how the IRS will see it. The last thing I want is for my interpretation to be deemed verboten by the feds three years after the fact and then be on the hook for interest.

[brianwalden]

38 minutes ago, Montoya said:

I would be interested in hearing the different tax postures US citizens are planning on adopting regarding the token. I personally like the "restricted stock" approach mentioned by --- I believe it was KarmaCoverage --- but unsure how the IRS will see it. The last thing I want is for my interpretation to be deemed verboten by the feds three years after the fact and then be on the hook for interest.

We got a little bit of information on that last week. Flare is trying to make the tax burden for the airdrop extremely minimal.

Unfortunately, the more I figure out how F-assets work, the more I think that converting XRP to FXRP will be a taxable event. Still no official word from Flare though. Maybe they've thought of something - they're usually three steps ahead of everyone else.

[Neurotoxin]

14 hours ago, Seoulite said:

Don't get used to it, I think after the launch it will be very different.

We’ll get to see soon enough! Exciting times ahead. 

[Seoulite]

It has occurred to me that this area of very tight trading on the FLRXRP chart is likely a sign of accumulation. One of the reasons we are seeing such stagnant price action is because the order books are so thin. Anyone looking to accumulate significant amounts (or even a retail trader looking to buy a relatively large amount) has very little liquidity to buy into, and so would end up paying a premium and/or starting a premature rush. And so they nibble away, buying a few hundred here and there over a period of months, simply because the order book won't sustain buying any quicker than that.

It is also still fascinating that the chart went to 4.3 XRP. How much of an aberration is this? I mean there really was no urgent reason for them to push it that high. It's not clear what the point was, and maybe it won't be clear until a while after the launch. 

 

[Seoulite]

Is it beginning?