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Could We Be at the Beginning of the End of the Bull Run Cycle? Why We COULD Be:


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With Elon Musk's SNL hosting last Saturday, I really wonder whether that signals the beginning of the end of this bull run cycle. I certainly don't want that to be the case, and I still think there could be plenty of reasons why it's not (looking to hear your arguments on why not too). 

I won't go into ALL the reasons why this COULD be, but among the most obvious ones are that virtually every coin is at ATH, some several times over. 

And this morning, I came across this FB post below from a friend that really hit home for me (personal info removed obviously).

Before you make conclusions about him, let me assure you that he isn't some general fool. MAYBE he isn't the wisest when it comes to crypto investing, but he's got a PhD in Electrical and Computer Engineering from a top 5 program in the US, and holds an upper middle management role at an international Uber competitor (he's ex-Uber, and he lives in the Bay Area). 

My point is, I take his post below as a sign that we may be running out of "greater fools" that have to be there to keep the crypto bull run going (don't you agree we need them?). He bought the top last time, and since everyone here loves to think that history largely repeats itself (think of how many posters draw parallels based on current events to 2017 events), could he be repeating his buys at the top again? Couple that with the fact that basically everything is at ATH, do we really have enough catalysts to keep this going for the foreseeable future (I'd love to hear your thoughts)?

I hate the fact XRP is barely halfway to ATH, and I'm certainly not yet taking actions (selling) based on my conjecture. Just think though, is this doom prospect more likely than maybe we're giving it credit for?

P.S. What prompted me to post this is a text I got from a friend I talk crypto with (he and I both got in towards the end of 2017). He basically pondered the same idea. And you KNOW he and I CANNOT be the only ones who think that. So if there're enough people who think that way, sometimes that can just be a self-fulfilling prophecy too unfortunately.

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One of the many reasons why I very much doubt we're at the end of the bull run: This run Bitcoin hasn't seen a single red dot yet. Not even an orange one. https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/2

...and now back to the original topic: I did not see a nice and clear parabolic push to conclude the bull cycle, so either this one is very different (could be), or a few legs higher are still coming!

I was trying to be humorous and cheeky, didn't work. More seriously, based on nothing other than my gut, I think we have a wee bit longer to go. With that being said, I've been following the meme proj

I think this bullrun will be different than any other in the past. 

Because of institutional money and framework, we may just experience heavy dips on the way to the next bitcoin halvening. 

Because of future SEC enforcements, cryptos without utility will begin to disappear and exchanges will see a ramp up of regulatory guidelines to follow. 

We could start to see a mature market where digital assets act independently based on news and development. 

Time will tell, but for long-term holders it's key to have exit strategies and to hold some assets long-term. Never all out and never all in was the saying around here by the old timers, who for the most part have left the forum. 

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The thing that scares me about crypto is that almost everything is a shitcoin. The carpet could be pulled out at any time. Paper dragon x1000.

Yes, people have said this forever while coins have made face melting gains over and over.

Nonetheless, pretty much everything is garbage in terms of real world use or even potential real world use other than say XRP, ADA, and a handful of others.

Which of course makes it even more infuriating that we took a rational approach to this market and have been hoodwinked and laughed at because of how irrational it all is.

Hopefully it keeps going. I guess holding in the dumps for another 3-4 years wouldn't be the end of the world.

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Posted (edited)

The future of payments around the world has to go digital and instant. SWIFT is a dodo and in a VR / AR future with an insane amount of value exchange happening every millisecond within this new digital metaverse, then the poor old ways of value transfer will not do. So what system will be used GLOBALLY to transfer all these trillions of potential transactions a day, BTC / ETH (NOPE), shit coins NOPE = XRP / Stellar IMO.

The future can not run on SWIFT so what will it run on? - as for the 4 hour and daily charts, it's anybody's guess, so I will see you in the future. Come back in 6 months to 2 years, because when XRP goes beyond speculation and is driven by utility, then OMG, watch it climb.

Rosa “Rosie” Gumataotao Rios her name appears on a lot of US printed fiat money, THAT ALONE, was the biggest green light I have ever seen in Ripples and XRP's favour, she didn't leave the treasury to work at Ripple for no good reason, she obviously knows what the future of money is going to be. XRP is a digital bridge asset Rosa is a human bridge asset between traditional money (fiat) and crypto, when she joined Ripple, I became a true believer in XRP's future.

 

 

Edited by HAL1000
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1 hour ago, Neurotoxin said:

While I disagree that it’s over, that’s not a very good counterargument as to why it wouldn’t be. 
 

Truth is, nobody really knows and we won’t really know until it’s too late. 

I was trying to be humorous and cheeky, didn't work. More seriously, based on nothing other than my gut, I think we have a wee bit longer to go. With that being said, I've been following the meme project scene on pancakeswap for the last month or so. They are all terrible and virtually duplicates of eachother. Now we're seeing some entering the top 100 in terms of marketcap, placing themselves way above serious and acclaimed projects that have been working hard for years, effectively making a mockery of the entire crypto scene (which has a tarnished reputation already). I don't know, I'm kind of just rambling, but all this stuff seems very unsustainable and is giving me judgement day vibes.

I appreciate this post and the point OP is making. Skepticism is good.

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5 minutes ago, captainjack said:

I was trying to be humorous and cheeky, didn't work. More seriously, based on nothing other than my gut, I think we have a wee bit longer to go. With that being said, I've been following the meme project scene on pancakeswap for the last month or so. They are all terrible and virtually duplicates of eachother. Now we're seeing some entering the top 100 in terms of marketcap, placing themselves way above serious and acclaimed projects that have been working hard for years, effectively making a mockery of the entire crypto scene (which has a tarnished reputation already). I don't know, I'm kind of just rambling, but all this stuff seems very unsustainable and is giving me judgement day vibes.

I appreciate this post and the point OP is making. Skepticism is good.

Yeah I actually got the joke but still wanted to provide an objective view at the time I don’t even remember why, but yes I totally agree, we need to be critical and skeptical and not just have our eyes fixed to the moon. 

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I was not around, but I understand that in 2017 the market had two peaks.  Perhaps we will see a similar pattern this year

I have no exit plan, and have not taken any profits yet.  I  have transferred 5% of my ADA back  into XRP and am looking to transfer another 5% soon because XRP seems to be wildly undervalued against ADA given the court case is now looking scheduled to be settled. 

I do not like the vibes I am getting from the Musk induced boom.  His intervention looks wholly bad for crypto, enticing people to buy junk stock without thinking.  He has probably ruined the finances of many families. 

I think taking out funds you might need if the market collapses might soon be a good idea.

Overall it looks as if the market is following the same sort of pattern as 2017 and the big alt season gains are still ahead of us.  We will see.

Edited by Julian_Williams
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27 minutes ago, Julian_Williams said:

I was not around, but I understand that in 2017 the market had two peaks.  Perhaps we will see a similar pattern this year

I have no exit plan, and have not taken any profits yet.  I  have transferred 5% of my ADA back  into XRP and am looking to transfer another 5% soon because XRP seems to be wildly undervalued against ADA given the court case is now looking scheduled to be settled. 

I do not like the vibes I am getting from the Musk induce boom.  His intervention looks wholly bad for crypto, enticing people to buy junk stock without thinking.  He has probably ruined the finances of many families. 

I think taking out funds you might need if the market collapses might soon be a good idea.

Overall it looks as if the market is following the same sort of pattern as 2017 and the big alt season gains are still ahead of us.  We will see.

I agree if the court case is settled and it is still a bull market, we will easily see a 10x peak. However, this case seems to be a long lasting one. There seems to be nowhere near the final decision. However, there may be a settlement if SEC find it will lose anyway and sooner to give up give better outcome to them. 

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3 minutes ago, hsc said:

I agree if the court case is settled and it is still a bull market, we will easily see a 10x peak. However, this case seems to be a long lasting one. There seems to be nowhere near the final decision. However, there may be a settlement if SEC find it will lose anyway and sooner to give up give better outcome to them. 

It looks increasingly likely that this case will not go the full way to judgment.  The bad publicity for SEC, what might be revealed in the discovery documents about SEC's incompetence (corruption?) are quite  big reason for Gensler to settle sooner rather than later.  The judges sympathy/fairness towards the defence's case are becoming  quite obvious.  

It is so difficult to second guess when the settlement will be reached.  The time table would be about August/Sept if both parties want to let it run through full discovery processes. There are reasons Gensler might want to avoid going down that route and settling sooner rather than later.   

Obviously Gensler wants SEC to "win" because to lose would be a very bad start for his chairmanship, but if the discovery document show that Hinman and Clayton were playing games and personally profiting by making pro BTC ETH statements and attacking XRP, that would be even worse for Gensler.   So my expectations are for the settlement to be sooner rather than later. 

 

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48 minutes ago, Julian_Williams said:

Obviously Gensler wants SEC to "win" because to lose would be a very bad start for his chairmanship, but if the discovery document show that Hinman and Clayton were playing games and personally profiting by making pro BTC ETH statements and attacking XRP, that would be even worse for Gensler.   So my expectations are for the settlement to be sooner rather than later.

Gensler will always have the option to throw them under the bus.  It's not an option he would take unless he knew for certain that there were documents, and that those documents were going to become public.  His best strategy will be to wait to see which way the wind is blowing.

 

I don't envy him.  He's been thrown a hospital pass.

 

 

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The Self Enriching Criminals have stated that John Deaton's class action should be dismissed because Ripples legal team are sufficient to PROTECT INVESTORS...

The mission of the SEC is to PROTECT INVESTORS, maintain fair, orderly, and efficient markets, and facilitate capital formation.

THAT IS THE SEC's MISSION STATEMENT, IT'S ON THEIR WEBSITE.

I saw a black man get killed by a LAW enforcement officer, for supposedly passing a dodgy $20 bill. That officer was filmed committing the crime, HE IS NOW IN JAIL and that officer looked at the camera, with a look that screamed I'm in charge and there is nothing you can do, because he knew nothing could ever happen to him, because that's just how the world works - he was wrong.

If you work at the SEC and you have the same attitude as that LAW enforcement officer, then the XRP army along with the rest of the crypto industry will make sure you also end up in jail, the world is changing, and it's watching you.

HEY SEC PROTECT INVESTORS DON'T CAUSE MORE 15 BILLION DOLLAR LOSSES, OTHERWISE WE WILL HOLD YOU TO ACCOUNT ON BOTH AN AGENCY AND A PERSONAL LEVEL.

 

 

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