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Symmetrical Price Swings: The Case for a $10 XRP


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I don't particularly like logarithmic charts. I think they can often be misleading, making you think a move is bigger (or smaller) than it really is, sometimes massively inflating price targets. No pr

We are luckier than many.  Our online business supported us when the shops were shut and our products are cheap and widely used. What is really scaring me is that the UK pulled out of the Single

by the way XRP 30% up in last 24 hours - only one other crypto in top hundred can match that (Waves no 77)   Seems XRP is setting the pace

Case in point about the danger of using the whole move from the very beginning: if we look at the eth chart, which is much cleaner and clearer than xrp, we see that the target would be 24k dollar eth. It has broken the high, but at the moment we are nowhere near such prices...

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On 4/25/2021 at 9:11 AM, Seoulite said:

I don't particularly like logarithmic charts. I think they can often be misleading, making you think a move is bigger (or smaller) than it really is, sometimes massively inflating price targets. No professional trader I have ever seen solely uses log charts, or even uses them most of the time. Maybe that is because I've mostly seen traders from forex, where price moves are significant but unlikely to wildly break historical ranges, especially in a short move.

That said log charts can be very useful for certain things. The main purpose of them is to show the relatively magnitude of price movements at different levels. For example 0.01 cents to 0.1 cents might not look like much on the dollar chart, but using the log chart you can see it's the same size of move as going from 20 cents to $2.

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A very general, basic pattern in TA is 3 waves: impulse, correction, impulse. Again, in general, we expect the impulses to be roughly the same magnitude. Also, in general, we expect the correction to come about halfway through the whole move. I keep saying 'in general' because there is no hard and fast rule here, and you wouldn't base a trade solely on this assumption. It is used to inform other signs you might be seeing in the market.

In this xrp bull run we have already seen this pattern twice. Here is the first one. You can see that the first impulse is roughly the same magnitude as the second. The wick is not important here, the body of the candle is much more important.

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Here is the second pattern, occurring on a higher timeframe. Here too if we use the bottom of the correction, we can see the move is almost the same in terms of magnitude.

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IF we assume that the same pattern will reoccur on the higher timeframe, and that the move from 18 cents to $2 was the first impulse, that we are now in the correction, and that we will see a similar sized impulse following it, then we end up with an XRP price of $10.

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Even if we come back lower and take around 70 cents as the bottom of this correction, that still leaves us with an $8.5 dollar XRP. 

Many of us have seen Blockchain Backer's videos, and you will know he uses the first big xrp movement as a guide for this movement. However, I am skeptical about this because I don't see a good reason to use that swing. Why does he use that one and not the 2017 one? Why doesn't he use the whole movement from the very bottom to the ATH? The movement that he uses as a reference gives us a target of aounrd $14. If we just use the last bull run then we get a target of $3. If we use the whole move from the very beginning we get a target of $120.

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Movements don't have to repeat themselves. However, symmetrical price moves are relatively common and make a certain amount of logical sense. However, we are talking about real money here, not just numbers on a screen. The log chart doesn't do a good job of showing the sheer magnitude of volume that is required to move xrp from say 10 dollars to 100 dollars. It may be a similar magnitude mathematically to 0.01 to 0.1, but in the real world it is not the same at all. At some point you start hitting friction like 'wow that's a lot of money' or 'wow there's not that much money available for speculation in the whole world'. 

Does anyone know why BCB uses that swing as his reference? If there's a good reason then I'd love to hear it. Until then though I think the assumptions that the move we are in now is a bull run and that the correction we are now seeing will be the biggest part of the run are reasonable, so I'll go with that.

Thanks for posting this. I go back and forth on where we could go and where we will go. I think $10 is definitely possible and hoping for double digits. Market cap also makes sense at this level as I believe that would put us ahead of ETH but not BTC which is achievable (we already did it once before). Could you comment on market cap at levels such as $50 and higher? I hear people say all the time “it’s impossible for XRP to get to X price because that would mean it’s market cap is Y” ...they compare it to market cap of apple or some other company but a currency should be treated differently, no? I understand it would take a huge influx of $ to get there...but I don’t think it’s impossible, do you?

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1 hour ago, Bill42069 said:

Thanks for posting this. I go back and forth on where we could go and where we will go. I think $10 is definitely possible and hoping for double digits. Market cap also makes sense at this level as I believe that would put us ahead of ETH but not BTC which is achievable (we already did it once before). Could you comment on market cap at levels such as $50 and higher? I hear people say all the time “it’s impossible for XRP to get to X price because that would mean it’s market cap is Y” ...they compare it to market cap of apple or some other company but a currency should be treated differently, no? I understand it would take a huge influx of $ to get there...but I don’t think it’s impossible, do you?

Market cap has been discussed a lot on this forum, maybe one of those who took part in the discussions could link one of them here. People have technical arguments about it that I don’t understand so I don’t know if it’s possible or not.

From a purely price action standpoint it is hard to imagine us going from here to there in a short time frame. Such a move would need massive periods of consolidation at higher levels around 20 or 30 dollars. I think it’s possible but over a time period of ten or twenty years, probably longer. Most people are not holding with such timeframes in mind, and anyway we don’t have any price action that would support such a prediction so at the moment I’m not considering it.

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36 minutes ago, Seoulite said:

Market cap has been discussed a lot on this forum, maybe one of those who took part in the discussions could link one of them here. People have technical arguments about it that I don’t understand so I don’t know if it’s possible or not.

From a purely price action standpoint it is hard to imagine us going from here to there in a short time frame. Such a move would need massive periods of consolidation at higher levels around 20 or 30 dollars. I think it’s possible but over a time period of ten or twenty years, probably longer. Most people are not holding with such timeframes in mind, and anyway we don’t have any price action that would support such a prediction so at the moment I’m not considering it.

Are you going to hold until $10 or are you taking profits earlier? Just curious. I am holding (or will try to) until $10 and still unsure what % I will sell at those levels. I need to do more research on the staking XRP via Flare Network to earn I think FLR? So many variables haha

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13 minutes ago, Bill42069 said:

Are you going to hold until $10 or are you taking profits earlier? Just curious. I am holding (or will try to) until $10 and still unsure what % I will sell at those levels. I need to do more research on the staking XRP via Flare Network to earn I think FLR? So many variables haha

I plan to start taking some profits around $3 for a couple of reasons. First, there is a possibility that we just hit the ATH and turn right back down. I'm not expecting that but it's possible. Second, I want to put some money in my pocket and not worry about it all disappearing if the whole market crashes. 

When we hit the ATH I will be looking at the price action and make my decision from there. I am not expecting $10, just because I don't want to get my own hopes up. Even $5 would be very welcome. Greed is a big danger for all of us here. 

With regards % to sell, it all depends on how much you have and how much you need in your life. Everyone who says what percentage they are gonna sell when is factoring that in too, so it's tough to say for someone else what a good plan is.

RE: FLR. We have the Flare Discussion Club where there is a fair amount of information, but we are just gradually gathering it. I think activity there will really pick up as we come up to the launch. I agree that being able to earn yield from XRP is influencing my decision on whether to sell or not. I am more reluctant to now, simply because converting it into fiat seems like a waste of time. However there is the danger that we lose 90% of XRP value again, so we have to weigh those things up. 

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26 minutes ago, Seoulite said:

I plan to start taking some profits around $3 for a couple of reasons. First, there is a possibility that we just hit the ATH and turn right back down. I'm not expecting that but it's possible. Second, I want to put some money in my pocket and not worry about it all disappearing if the whole market crashes. 

When we hit the ATH I will be looking at the price action and make my decision from there. I am not expecting $10, just because I don't want to get my own hopes up. Even $5 would be very welcome. Greed is a big danger for all of us here. 

With regards % to sell, it all depends on how much you have and how much you need in your life. Everyone who says what percentage they are gonna sell when is factoring that in too, so it's tough to say for someone else what a good plan is.

RE: FLR. We have the Flare Discussion Club where there is a fair amount of information, but we are just gradually gathering it. I think activity there will really pick up as we come up to the launch. I agree that being able to earn yield from XRP is influencing my decision on whether to sell or not. I am more reluctant to now, simply because converting it into fiat seems like a waste of time. However there is the danger that we lose 90% of XRP value again, so we have to weigh those things up. 

sounds like a level headed plan

I guess we will have a lot more idea where BTC is going when XRP hits $3.  Like you, if it looks as if BTC already passed its peak then I might do something similar because my business has ben hit by covid, and I might need some cash to take me through a second crypto winter.  Personally I do not expect the next crypto winter to be as hard as the last, and I expect the alt season to last most of 2021. 

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2 minutes ago, Gorgalosk said:

As an American, lately my thoughts aren’t to WHEN I’ll cash out, but HOW. Would really suck to have finally gotten to where I need to be and then uphold goes down or takes some insane cut of the withdrawal.

I happened to login to Uphold a while back - looks like Greg Kidd won't take "no, thanks" for an answer and insists upon using Uphold to pursue his GlobalID dream, which manifests in some sort of "please let us access your webcam and/or use your cellphone to give us a live selfie" thing.  I'm just not doing that.  Uphold had better take note.

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10 minutes ago, Julian_Williams said:

sounds like a level headed plan

I guess we will have a lot more idea where BTC is going when XRP hits $3.  Like you, if it looks as if BTC already passed its peak then I might do something similar because my business has ben hit by covid, and I might need some cash to take me through a second crypto winter.  Personally I do not expect the next crypto winter to be as hard as the last, and I expect the alt season to last most of 2021. 

Sorry to hear about your business mate. As a side point, I think the effect on businesses has barely been part of the covid conversation, and every time there is a new lockdown announced my heart sinks for the small business owner. Hope it’s not too bad for you.

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13 minutes ago, Seoulite said:

Sorry to hear about your business mate. As a side point, I think the effect on businesses has barely been part of the covid conversation, and every time there is a new lockdown announced my heart sinks for the small business owner. Hope it’s not too bad for you.

We are luckier than many.  Our online business supported us when the shops were shut and our products are cheap and widely used.

What is really scaring me is that the UK pulled out of the Single Market.  I have always been pro-Brexit, in fact I am quite well known in Brexit circles, but I always wanted the UK to stay in the EU trade block (but leave eh political and monetary union).  Leaving the SM has make it much harder to export and it totally destroys our opportunities to sell directly to ordinary people in the EU (nearly half our online business)  So covid closed our shops and the government closed our online and export business.

Crypto always was my hedge against the future, which is why I have a good bag and this bull run is very timely.  https://shop.twobadmice.com

 

just started a new business which is looking good too, so no need to cry for us. We have a  habit of falling on our feet.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Julian_Williams said:

Crypto always was my hedge against the future, which is why I have a good bag and this bull run is very timely.  https://shop.twobadmice.com

Nice! Just checked out the website.

7 minutes ago, Julian_Williams said:

I have always been pro-Brexit, in fact I am quite well known in Brexit circles, but I always wanted the UK to say in the EU trade block.

I got excited for moment there and thought: ah he must be Peter Hitchens! Before I realized that you are using your name here haha. 

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