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1 hour ago, jargoman said:


Will XRP pass ath? In my opinion yes, Like a rocket leaving the atmosphere  !!

Nothing better than a good dose of hopium in the morning!!!:)

More or less I agree with you. XRP will have its run past ATH by the end of the year (probably sooner). No matter what Jed, or the SEC, or the courts, or whoever does.

I believe we will see $10. Beyond that I am not sure, but I am pretty confident we will touch double digit.

 

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I choose coins according to technical analysis. In 2011 I was sick of losing money trying to value buy. I went to investopedia trading games and looked at the top 10 biggest gainer accounts. 9 out of

New accounts nearing levels seen last bull run before ath. People can laugh at my posts. Ya'll were laughing when I called the reverasal at 0.26 cents. 7x gains since then

The first premise to the theory is the 4 year cycle theory. Most coins have a 4 year block reward halving. Each coin was created at different times and what we see is each coin mooning one by one in c

22 minutes ago, Panopticon said:

Nothing better than a good dose of hopium in the morning!!!:)

More or less I agree with you. XRP will have its run past ATH by the end of the year (probably sooner). No matter what Jed, or the SEC, or the courts, or whoever does.

I believe we will see $10. Beyond that I am not sure, but I am pretty confident we will touch double digit.

 

Do you know anything about "bitcoin winter? Ive seen so much online about how after we finish this bullrun everything might drop up to 80%? This is frightening. Should we sell and rebuy. Not just xrp im meaning everything in general. Ps this is actually directed at everyone. 

Thanks for all your insight guys much appreciated 

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2 minutes ago, Mummabearinvestor said:

Do you know anything about "bitcoin winter? Ive seen so much online about how after we finish this bullrun everything might drop up to 80%? This is frightening. Should we sell and rebuy. Not just xrp im meaning everything in general. Ps this is actually directed at everyone. 

Thanks for all your insight guys much appreciated 

I will give you MY mind frame and exit plan for what it's worth.

I am planning to sell parts of my bag at specific gains percentages from my DCA starting at around ATH with around 10-15% (with an aim to get initial capital plus taxes I will have to pay). Then I will sell other increments at some other selected price targets for profits. Not insane gains, but not bad for me, let's say 3X or 5X of what I make annually, depending how high it will get.

Planning to hold at least 60% of my bag long term (at least 2028). I believe it could be a really valued asset by then.

If price drops to 80% or more from ATH, let's say that could be sub $2, probably I would refill my bags using some of the gains and wait for maybe another market round.

If price stays at higher levels, I would probably just stick with the rest of my bag and see what the future unfolds.

This is just my view, I have a job, I have a life, if XRP goes to zero today my life will not be impacted greatly (besides my bitterness I chose the wrong horse to bet on :lol:), I do not mind not dumping everything at let's say $10 to get really nice profits and get out of the game tottaly, I want to keep a bag really long term because I believe in few years we will see much greater heights and I will have a valuable asset. It could all go down to zero of course. Who knows? :)

 

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2 hours ago, NMNR said:

Not sure how much weight you're putting behind Jeds sales but it's definitely more psychological than anything else...

I wouldn’t be so quick to discount psychology out of price movements. After all, humans are the ones deciding how much something is worth at the moment. Psychology is what drives FOMO and FOMO is what gets us to ATH and beyond. That and the almighty market manipulating whales and their tactics.  

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2 hours ago, NMNR said:

Not sure how much weight you're putting behind Jeds sales but it's definitely more psychological than anything else...

According to this article,  roughly $33 million institutional money flowed into XRP products last week.

This week Jed is selling approximately this amount per day.

Jed's sales are a major downward pressure to the price of XRP. But the days are numbered.

 

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2 hours ago, panmores said:

@jargomanwhat scenario you see after the parabolic move?

Completely different market today? Just see how BTC holds at these levels for now, compared to the 2017 ATH.

Where will bottom support be?

It seems different this time but the outcome will likely be the same, massive gains non stop for the next 6 months or so then another 95% drop, crypto winter. The winters are caused by the gains that preceded them. 

The Elliot wave theory I mentioned is that XRP will grow in 3 major bubbles. Each bubble consists of three waves. Each wave consists of another 3 mini pumps. 

main-qimg-3340cdb6727d002b90259a1c10e8c27f.png

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One thing I don’t really see mentioned much is on the lines of what @Panopticon is saying, we all seem quite short sighted (myself included), we take about this bull cycle (this year), maybe even the next 2-3 years.

 

It would be difficult to hold it for this long since I would like a lump sum for my first house in the next few years but what prices are we talking in 10+ years for say XRP. It could next make it past £10 but it could be £50 by then. Prices since inception have gone up to date, when does it stop?

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NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

Personally, I don't think this is going to be a cycle in the same vein as the others. Regulatory clarity in the U.S. is inevitable - one way or another. There will be a gold rush in U.S. led investments towards blockchain. I think there will be a massive destruction of a large number of useless coins. The rest will keep going up.  A lot of leverage based trading that props up markets today will die off. No more "VPN to bypass geographical restrictions".

I could be very wrong, and I am personally taking that risk. I think for some crypto, this is the precursor to an actual multi-year bull run that hasn't really started yet. For others, this is the end. Especially coins that are propped up through leveraged investors, MLM/gamification based coins, meme coins, etc. 

Apart from regulation, we're going to see inflation - at least for another 2, 3 years if not longer. Powell straight up confirmed that inflation is anticipated. He says it will be short-lived, but what else is he going to say? He's also clear that they are not going to target inflation at a certain rate (2%) as the Fed has been for decades - instead they will target an average inflation target over a (prolonged) time period with specific goals around employment and price stabilization (he means wage growth and commodity prices). Some excerpts from the link below - 

The U.S. economy is going to temporarily see "a little higher" inflation this year as the recovery strengthens and supply constraints push up prices in some sectors, but the Federal Reserve is committed to limiting any overshoot (hint: Inflation isn't easy to control)

"We do not seek inflation that substantially exceeds 2 percent, nor do we seek inflation above 2 percent for a prolonged period," - What is substantial ? 3% ? 5% ? 10%? What's a prolonged period? 5% for 2 years ? 2.5% for 5 years ?

"I would emphasize, though, that we are fully committed to both legs of our dual mandate - maximum employment and stable prices" - You know what most probably mean ? They need to make sure wages rise with inflation, because food suddenly becomes unaffordable otherwise. 

... until it sees "substantial further progress" toward full employment and the 2% flexible inflation target.

Ref: https://www.reuters.com/business/usa-fed-powell-exclusive-urgent-pix-2021-04-20/

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5 minutes ago, HenrySeldom said:

Coolio. Which cryptos tho? :biggrin:

I think we are nearing the point where "unsophisticated" traders get flatted to the ground. For those that have been trading sentiment, my recommendation is to take your profits, do your research and place your bets. Or, just stick to fixed income products. 8.5% to 10% (BlockFi, Celsius) against Stablecoins is a pretty good return. The top VC firms in the world typically have a 1:10 success ratio in terms of their investments. Nine fails and one succeeds, but that one investment gives enough returns to support the losses among others and still leave a profit on the table. Most firms have lower successes. There are long periods where you won't see your investment go anywhere for years - sometimes close to a decade. You'll quickly see why the SEC has been insisting on only accredited investors to be able to participate in these kinds of investments. I personally don't agree about this approach, but I understand where the SEC is coming from.

In fact, I suspect that's where the motivation for the SEC's lawsuits against crypto is coming from. They want them to be treated as securities because in their own way, they feel that innocent investors will get fleeced out of their money and want to protect them. Look at what Elon did to Doge and Bitcoin. Or the Winklewosses. Look at the constant pumping on their Twitter feeds. They cannot do that with securities. They can with crypto, and there is no one stopping them. 

That said, while I understand SEC's motivation, it's highly misplaced. I don't know a good solution for this problem, yet. I suspect they'll take away ability to get access to margin, or the ability to over-leverage - across all markets including equity, commodities, and crypto. They won't remove access, but they can significantly increase the interest rate you have to pay for it. They may also say users have to KYC, even through DeFi, and there may be regulations on blockchain networks around AML, solvency, interoperability etc. if they want to get access to U.S. investors. 

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1 hour ago, Ripley said:

I think we are nearing the point where "unsophisticated" traders get flatted to the ground. For those that have been trading sentiment, my recommendation is to take your profits, do your research and place your bets. Or, just stick to fixed income products. 8.5% to 10% (BlockFi, Celsius) against Stablecoins is a pretty good return. The top VC firms in the world typically have a 1:10 success ratio in terms of their investments. Nine fails and one succeeds, but that one investment gives enough returns to support the losses among others and still leave a profit on the table. Most firms have lower successes. There are long periods where you won't see your investment go anywhere for years - sometimes close to a decade. You'll quickly see why the SEC has been insisting on only accredited investors to be able to participate in these kinds of investments. I personally don't agree about this approach, but I understand where the SEC is coming from.

In fact, I suspect that's where the motivation for the SEC's lawsuits against crypto is coming from. They want them to be treated as securities because in their own way, they feel that innocent investors will get fleeced out of their money and want to protect them. Look at what Elon did to Doge and Bitcoin. Or the Winklewosses. Look at the constant pumping on their Twitter feeds. They cannot do that with securities. They can with crypto, and there is no one stopping them. 

That said, while I understand SEC's motivation, it's highly misplaced. I don't know a good solution for this problem, yet. I suspect they'll take away ability to get access to margin, or the ability to over-leverage - across all markets including equity, commodities, and crypto. They won't remove access, but they can significantly increase the interest rate you have to pay for it. They may also say users have to KYC, even through DeFi, and there may be regulations on blockchain networks around AML, solvency, interoperability etc. if they want to get access to U.S. investors. 

So all in XRP or what? 

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President Biden is proposing a capital gains tax of ~40% (up from 20% today) for income over $1M. It's just a proposal right now, but if it does become law, I expect two things:

  • Possibly massive sell off across equities, crypto towards the end of the year to lock in lower capital gains rates
  • Possibly a lot more hodling starting next year, with investors leaning towards loans rather than liquidation. If there is regulatory clarity before then, those loans may be traditional ones (i.e. from banks) to start with, with DeFi eventually becoming more attractive. Otherwise, DeFi is going to get attractive faster. Forced hodling may also help reduce volatility in crypto prices over time.

 

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