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12 minutes ago, Seoulite said:

Could you please link to the other posts you've made about this?

Here's another two more. 

It should be noted again that temporary pull backs are very possible. The 100 or so days of Jeds supply are a factor. Sec news. XRP is under attack. I believe that utility drives the price of XRP and not ripple related news. News is noise. 
 

 

 

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I choose coins according to technical analysis. In 2011 I was sick of losing money trying to value buy. I went to investopedia trading games and looked at the top 10 biggest gainer accounts. 9 out of

New accounts nearing levels seen last bull run before ath. People can laugh at my posts. Ya'll were laughing when I called the reverasal at 0.26 cents. 7x gains since then

The first premise to the theory is the 4 year cycle theory. Most coins have a 4 year block reward halving. Each coin was created at different times and what we see is each coin mooning one by one in c

It's the Elliot wave on a macro level that defy's all logic and reason. Most are not willing to accept that this is a possibility; say if ripple won their lawsuit and announced some big partnerships. 

In my opinion technical analysis is king, the market finds news as an excuse to follow the pattern. But will that play out on such a massive level. The attached photo challenges my own belief systems.  

mind_blown.png

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3 hours ago, Chookstar said:

Hey @jargoman I'm trying to make sense of all your saying...so do you see XRP going beyond the ATH of $4. Or you mean it will moon to there and stop. Do you think it will then crash back down?

Can you give it to me in layman terms? Thanks so much.

The first premise to the theory is the 4 year cycle theory. Most coins have a 4 year block reward halving. Each coin was created at different times and what we see is each coin mooning one by one in cycles. 

XRP initially entered the crypto-sphere in 2013. Every four years is....
2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021

That covers supply next is demand. Crypto userbase tends to double every 18 months to a year. The logarithmic growth of users translates to logarithmic growth of price. New accounts steadily increase, adoption IS happening. It doesn't matter about the sec if people are still buying XRP. News doesn't bring in more or less users to crypto. 

Basically what I am saying is that price is a balance of supply and demand which is dictated by mathematics, and if the increase of users remains the same and the supply constraints placed on XRP remain the same then in theory it's growth pattern will remain the same and thus a repeat of 2017 is possible. 

So my main theory of what will happen is XRP will do it's famous sideways action for a while. T.A shows that a parabolic rise is eminent but as volumes increase so does Jed's sales. You can see over the past year XRP has went up and down in stages. 3 steps forward 1 step back in mini cycles, and you can also see the mini cycles getting shorter. It took months for the price 0.32 but once it did it went to 0.75. Then months to break 0.75 then hit 1.80. XRP seems to have these fakeouts where prices need to consolidate before going higher. 

So what I believe will happen is a repeat of 2017. XRP will slowly bleed out over the next 100 or so days. Jed is going to run out in about 100 days. In my mind this is not a coincidence. The chart is merely telling you what the market is expecting. In about 100 days if XRP hasn't mooned, then it soon will. 

Will XRP pass ath? In my opinion yes, Like a rocket leaving the atmosphere  !!

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9 minutes ago, jargoman said:

The first premise to the theory is the 4 year cycle theory. Most coins have a 4 year block reward halving. Each coin was created at different times and what we see is each coin mooning one by one in cycles. 

XRP initially entered the crypto-sphere in 2013. Every four years is....
2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021

That covers supply next is demand. Crypto userbase tends to double every 18 months to a year. The logarithmic growth of users translates to logarithmic growth of price. New accounts steadily increase, adoption IS happening. It doesn't matter about the sec if people are still buying XRP. News doesn't bring in more or less users to crypto. 

Basically what I am saying is that price is a balance of supply and demand which is dictated by mathematics, and if the increase of users remains the same and the supply constraints placed on XRP remain the same then in theory it's growth pattern will remain the same and thus a repeat of 2017 is possible. 

So my main theory of what will happen is XRP will do it's famous sideways action for a while. T.A shows that a parabolic rise is eminent but as volumes increase so does Jed's sales. You can see over the past year XRP has went up and down in stages. 3 steps forward 1 step back in mini cycles, and you can also see the mini cycles getting shorter. It took months for the price 0.32 but once it did it went to 0.75. Then months to break 0.75 then hit 1.80. XRP seems to have these fakeouts where prices need to consolidate before going higher. 

So what I believe will happen is a repeat of 2017. XRP will slowly bleed out over the next 100 or so days. Jed is going to run out in about 100 days. In my mind this is not a coincidence. The chart is merely telling you what the market is expecting. In about 100 days if XRP hasn't mooned, then it soon will. 

Will XRP pass ath? In my opinion yes, Like a rocket leaving the atmosphere  !!

Not sure how much weight you're putting behind Jeds sales but it's definitely more psychological than anything else...

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18 minutes ago, jargoman said:

The first premise to the theory is the 4 year cycle theory. Most coins have a 4 year block reward halving. Each coin was created at different times and what we see is each coin mooning one by one in cycles. 

XRP initially entered the crypto-sphere in 2013. Every four years is....
2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021

That covers supply next is demand. Crypto userbase tends to double every 18 months to a year. The logarithmic growth of users translates to logarithmic growth of price. New accounts steadily increase, adoption IS happening. It doesn't matter about the sec if people are still buying XRP. News doesn't bring in more or less users to crypto. 

Basically what I am saying is that price is a balance of supply and demand which is dictated by mathematics, and if the increase of users remains the same and the supply constraints placed on XRP remain the same then in theory it's growth pattern will remain the same and thus a repeat of 2017 is possible. 

So my main theory of what will happen is XRP will do it's famous sideways action for a while. T.A shows that a parabolic rise is eminent but as volumes increase so does Jed's sales. You can see over the past year XRP has went up and down in stages. 3 steps forward 1 step back in mini cycles, and you can also see the mini cycles getting shorter. It took months for the price 0.32 but once it did it went to 0.75. Then months to break 0.75 then hit 1.80. XRP seems to have these fakeouts where prices need to consolidate before going higher. 

So what I believe will happen is a repeat of 2017. XRP will slowly bleed out over the next 100 or so days. Jed is going to run out in about 100 days. In my mind this is not a coincidence. The chart is merely telling you what the market is expecting. In about 100 days if XRP hasn't mooned, then it soon will. 

Will XRP pass ath? In my opinion yes, Like a rocket leaving the atmosphere  !!

Except XRP actually had *3* massive pumps in 2017. 

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3 minutes ago, NMNR said:

Not sure how much weight you're putting behind Jeds sales but it's definitely more psychological than anything else...

I disagree,  22 million daily current sales is 600 million xrp per month. That's 1 billion USD dollars exiting XRP ecosystem per month. In 100 days there will be an extra billion dollars per month for XRP holders to sell into. If a company were to announce 1 billion in savings per months, what would happen to the price of that stock?

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1 minute ago, jargoman said:

I disagree,  22 million daily current sales is 600 million xrp per month. That's 1 billion USD dollars exiting XRP ecosystem per month. In 100 days there will be an extra billion dollars per month for XRP holders to sell into. If a company were to announce 1 billion in savings per months, what would happen to the price of that stock?

We are not talking about stock prices or fundamentals. Not to be patronising. But this this is crypto. I don't want to diminish your conclusions and as much as I want to believe in your realities they're a bit off the mark for me.

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5 hours ago, jargoman said:

It's the Elliot wave on a macro level that defy's all logic and reason. Most are not willing to accept that this is a possibility; say if ripple won their lawsuit and announced some big partnerships. 

In my opinion technical analysis is king, the market finds news as an excuse to follow the pattern. But will that play out on such a massive level. The attached photo challenges my own belief systems.  

mind_blown.png

Look at the volume difference between now and ATH, mmm yum yum.

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27 minutes ago, NMNR said:

Not sure how much weight you're putting behind Jeds sales but it's definitely more psychological than anything else...

I disagree about that. 

$30mil a day is a lot. It may not sound like it compared to daily volumes in the billions, but it is. It's also not straight volume. Jed isn't trading, he's not buying back and interacting in two way trading. He's only selling, which both increases supply and decreases demand, as well as applying downward pressure on the price. 

There 100% is a phycological component to his ongoing sales, but the end of them I believe will also have a genuine market impact even if its not an immediate large increase. 

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1 hour ago, jargoman said:

There's a youtuber I watch that independently comes to the same conclusions that I do. 

 

Now that is exactly the kind of YouTube thumbnail that really inspires confidence....

I watched it, thought great he's not using a log chart! (he uses it later).

'Doge did this so we are going to do this' is not good analysis. There are thousands of other projects in crypto, why not compare against those?

Finally this kid is what, like 17 years old? Forgive me for not having much confidence in the TA prowess of a hype YouTuber.

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2 minutes ago, Seoulite said:

Now that is exactly the kind of YouTube thumbnail that really inspires confidence....

I watched it, thought great he's not using a log chart! (he uses it later).

'Doge did this so we are going to do this' is not good analysis. There are thousands of other projects in crypto, why not compare against those?

Finally this kid is what, like 17 years old? Forgive me for not having much confidence in the TA prowess of a hype YouTuber.

Consider it a hopium replacement for the user who can't post here anymore.

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