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1 hour ago, Mikhail_Liebenstein said:

 

Agree it is cyclical.  And I will buy back in.

Longer term though I think XRP will be safer as an official security, with a revised security schema.

Bitcoin remains vulnerable to DDoS and if a Government decided to take it down they easily could. Also Shors algorithm on a 1000 qubit machine will eat Bitcoin, there is a chance by 2024 BTC will be zero.

Several vendors are promising such hardware by 2023!

Did anyone notice this news about BTC hashing power drop by 50% as there is a power outage in a region in China?

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/bitcoin-mining-hash-rate-drops-as-blackouts-instituted-in-china-2021-04-16

Based on this news alone, I am 100% sure that if gov wants to kill BTC, they can do that as easily as cutting the mining farm power in China or in the US.

BTC will die in 1 day.

My belief is if the gov wants to kill something/someone and they have the power, they will do it immediately. Not waiting 10+ years to do it.

So why did no one take out those mining farms, even China is not killing it?

I believe each Gov has find some value in BTC. Each country need some way to transfer money in/out of the country under the table, what is a better option than using BTC to do that? If they kill BTC, they may need to fly with briefcase of random US dollars to another country that is no fun at all.

Edited by jockeyng
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4 hours ago, Mikhail_Liebenstein said:

I think it is happening now, mainly due to nations banning Bitcoin in a concerted way.

Gut feeling, BTC will go back down to sub $6k and XRP will trade between $0.18 and $0.25 again.

There has been a wall of negative news in the last month or so, but few noticed it during the run up party.

It  looks like they are starting to move against Bitcoin.

 

Turkey has just made crypto illegal: https://www.euronews.com/amp/2021/04/16/turkey-has-just-banned-the-use-of-cryptocurrencies-and-bitcoin-is-already-feeling-the-stra

 

HSBC has banned people from dealing in Micro Strategy stock due to the firms holding of 91k BTC. https://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/news/hsbc-bans-microstrategy-shares-citing-bitcoin-investments/

 

The UK had already banned Crypto Derivatives: https://www.mirror.co.uk/money/every-single-bitcoin-product-banned-22800240

 

 

India is also on the case for on outright ban: 

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2B60QP

 

 

Ray Dalio also thinks the US is heading that way: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/03/26/bridgewaters-ray-dalio-good-probability-government-outlaws-bitcoin.html

 

I've just sold out my XRP as I am fairly certain the cyclical crash has started. I am sure most Crypto will drop 90%, like before , before a new run up in 2024/5.


That said, it BTC not recover this time, as we should have viable Quantum computers for cracking BTC in 3 years from now. BTW, i work in the field, and Quantum Computers are real.

 

Sorry, I just don't buy into this, due to the following reason. All these news are just FUD.

2020 https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2020/03/21/blow-to-bitcoin-as-russia-moves-to-effectively-ban-crypto/?sh=6bab1b435c63

2019 https://www.zdnet.com/article/china-could-soon-ban-cryptocurrency-mining-report/

2018 https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-bans-cryptocurrencies-as-rial-hits-all-time-low/

2017 https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2017/11/234805/moroccos-cryptocurrency-ban-will-create-serious-technological-divide-warn-traders/

2016 https://qz.com/875391/bitcoins-bull-run-faces-one-gigantic-question-mark-heading-into-2017/

 

Edited by jockeyng
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16 minutes ago, jockeyng said:

Each country need some way to transfer money in/out of the country under the table, what is a better option than using BTC to do that?

Literally any other crypto is better at transferring value than BTC. 

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48 minutes ago, jockeyng said:

Did anyone notice this news about BTC hashing power drop by 50% as there is a power outage in a region in China?

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/bitcoin-mining-hash-rate-drops-as-blackouts-instituted-in-china-2021-04-16

Based on this news alone, I am 100% sure that if gov wants to kill BTC, they can do that as easily as cutting the mining farm power in China or in the US.

BTC will die in 1 day.

My belief is if the gov wants to kill something/someone and they have the power, they will do it immediately. Not waiting 10+ years to do it.

So why did no one take out those mining farms, even China is not killing it?

I believe each Gov has find some value in BTC. Each country need some way to transfer money in/out of the country under the table, what is a better option than using BTC to do that? If they kill BTC, they may need to fly with briefcase of random US dollars to another country that is no fun at all.

BTC will not die in 1 day, do not sound silly, please, its so 2017. There was incidents in coal mining factories, for security reasons provonce executed blackout for 24h.

 

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6 hours ago, Mikhail_Liebenstein said:

HSBC has banned people from dealing in Micro Strategy stock due to the firms holding of 91k BTC

You didn't mention that New Zealand passed a banking regulation for environment that means all investments must have their green credentials vetted and investments into non green enterprises like bitcoin will be banned (or taxed heavily).

USA and China have just agreed to more cooperation on climate and just this month, The Chinese themselves produced a report https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56671488 that bitcoin would be a blocker for environmental targets. (Mongolia announced a ban last month).

I'm sure the EU will also introduce regulation against PoW crypto too, there have been several high level talks where they've mention it, but I don't have links handy.

We all know that the writing is on the wall for BTC - the question is - does it have to drag everything else down with it when it goes? or will money flow out of it into better tech like xrp...

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1 hour ago, jbjnr said:

You didn't mention that New Zealand passed a banking regulation for environment that means all investments must have their green credentials vetted and investments into non green enterprises like bitcoin will be banned (or taxed heavily).

USA and China have just agreed to more cooperation on climate and just this month, The Chinese themselves produced a report https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56671488 that bitcoin would be a blocker for environmental targets. (Mongolia announced a ban last month).

I'm sure the EU will also introduce regulation against PoW crypto too, there have been several high level talks where they've mention it, but I don't have links handy.

We all know that the writing is on the wall for BTC - the question is - does it have to drag everything else down with it when it goes? or will money flow out of it into better tech like xrp...

Propaganda machine is FUDDING

When FOMOING again?

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9 hours ago, Mikhail_Liebenstein said:

I think it is happening now, mainly due to nations banning Bitcoin in a concerted way.

Gut feeling, BTC will go back down to sub $6k and XRP will trade between $0.18 and $0.25 again.

There has been a wall of negative news in the last month or so, but few noticed it during the run up party.

It  looks like they are starting to move against Bitcoin.

 

Turkey has just made crypto illegal: https://www.euronews.com/amp/2021/04/16/turkey-has-just-banned-the-use-of-cryptocurrencies-and-bitcoin-is-already-feeling-the-stra

 

HSBC has banned people from dealing in Micro Strategy stock due to the firms holding of 91k BTC. https://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/news/hsbc-bans-microstrategy-shares-citing-bitcoin-investments/

 

The UK had already banned Crypto Derivatives: https://www.mirror.co.uk/money/every-single-bitcoin-product-banned-22800240

 

 

India is also on the case for on outright ban: 

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2B60QP

 

 

Ray Dalio also thinks the US is heading that way: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/03/26/bridgewaters-ray-dalio-good-probability-government-outlaws-bitcoin.html

 

I've just sold out my XRP as I am fairly certain the cyclical crash has started. I am sure most Crypto will drop 90%, like before , before a new run up in 2024/5.


That said, it BTC not recover this time, as we should have viable Quantum computers for cracking BTC in 3 years from now. BTW, i work in the field, and Quantum Computers are real.

 

Anti-Hodor sort of FUD post

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8 hours ago, Canducus said:

What about other cryptos? Are they also vulnerable to quantum computers? Are they planning to secure this issue?

That is very intresting thing, and people not talking much about it.

Any Crypto where the hashing method is published will be vulnerable. Basically give me the public key and I can reverse hash it with a 1000 Qubit Quantum Computer running Shor's algorithm to to rapidly find the private key.

I guess either breaking the hashing relalionship so it is just a random relationship or use some quantum hardened algorithm will help. I think this is easier to fix with XRP than BTC.

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1 hour ago, Mikhail_Liebenstein said:

Any Crypto where the hashing method is published will be vulnerable. Basically give me the public key and I can reverse hash it with a 1000 Qubit Quantum Computer running Shor's algorithm to to rapidly find the private key.

I guess either breaking the hashing relalionship so it is just a random relationship or use some quantum hardened algorithm will help. I think this is easier to fix with XRP than BTC.

If SHA-1 hash function can be broken by Quantum computer, we are seeing another wave of year 2000 bug scale of system upgrade required.

BTC will be the last problem to worry about compared to online banking, credit card payment, stock trading and even playing music on YouTube will require a system upgrade. 

If that really happen, we should see a hard fork of BTC into some like BTC Super Hash or something like that.

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On the subject of corrections and charting...

When XRP was running upwards last week or so, it would climb, form a flag/pennant and then climb again. Each of the pennant formations was striking in that the price would fall, bounce, rise up, bounce down and then repeat, after a couple of bounces on each side, support and resistance lines would form, and then it would bounce between these lines - gradually decreasing in amplitude forming the pennant and then as the price reached the narrowest point, would break up (last week it was up, but it could just as welll have been down).

The triangle/flag/pennant/wedge/channel patterns keep reappearing time after time and have made me very curious, because once a pattern starts to form, it's clear that thousands of TA chartists are drawing these lines and then trading based upon them (or so it seems to me). This causes the lines of support and resistance to become "real" and the become self perpetuating. They certainly happen in fractal dimensions, from the shortest timescales/candles to the larger ones.

As a scientist, I'm curious to know if there's any real reason for these formations to happen. When the price falls to some level where it was for a long time, it's clear there is support at that point because a lot of people bought at that level and they don't want to sell less than that, others buy at that level as it's seen as a 'safe' price, if it drops below that level, stop losses are triggered and the price can drop to the next support level - this I understand (and also when rising, reaching a resistance level) - but these pennant/flag formations puzzle me because there does not appear to be any physical reason for them to exist other than TA charting.

Can anyone elucidate on why they form?

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8 hours ago, jockeyng said:

If SHA-1 hash function can be broken by Quantum computer, we are seeing another wave of year 2000 bug scale of system upgrade required.

BTC will be the last problem to worry about compared to online banking, credit card payment, stock trading and even playing music on YouTube will require a system upgrade. 

If that really happen, we should see a hard fork of BTC into some like BTC Super Hash or something like that.

 

It will be an exciting time in technology.

I kind of started my career in tech with Y2K and should retire (though might be earlier) with Y2K38 when 32-bit Unix time (seconds since 1970) runs out. (Will mainly impact old stuff / low power).

But the Quantum Tidal Wave will be 100x more exciting and it is coming.

 

 

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45 minutes ago, jbjnr said:

On the subject of corrections and charting...

When XRP was running upwards last week or so, it would climb, form a flag/pennant and then climb again. Each of the pennant formations was striking in that the price would fall, bounce, rise up, bounce down and then repeat, after a couple of bounces on each side, support and resistance lines would form, and then it would bounce between these lines - gradually decreasing in amplitude forming the pennant and then as the price reached the narrowest point, would break up (last week it was up, but it could just as welll have been down).

The triangle/flag/pennant/wedge/channel patterns keep reappearing time after time and have made me very curious, because once a pattern starts to form, it's clear that thousands of TA chartists are drawing these lines and then trading based upon them (or so it seems to me). This causes the lines of support and resistance to become "real" and the become self perpetuating. They certainly happen in fractal dimensions, from the shortest timescales/candles to the larger ones.

As a scientist, I'm curious to know if there's any real reason for these formations to happen. When the price falls to some level where it was for a long time, it's clear there is support at that point because a lot of people bought at that level and they don't want to sell less than that, others buy at that level as it's seen as a 'safe' price, if it drops below that level, stop losses are triggered and the price can drop to the next support level - this I understand (and also when rising, reaching a resistance level) - but these pennant/flag formations puzzle me because there does not appear to be any physical reason for them to exist other than TA charting.

Can anyone elucidate on why they form?

Purely my opinion and view of what happens: 
Most pennants are formed exactly on fibonacci levels and known resistance/supports from previous years. Indeed because many traders use those levels to decide resistance/supports making it a self fullfilling prophecy. Once they reach the resistance level traders start selling some anticipating a drop. If it drops they buy again and traders start trading multiple times within a bouncing range to try and make some well-timed profits. Over the next few days less and less people trade the bounce inside that range because the risk/reward shrinks and so reducing volatility untill the smaller waves are forced into the narrowing pennant, forced to make a decision up or down eventually.

After that everybody waits I guess, having some profits on the sidelines. I think that is the moment whales can decide with a big buy or sell. If it breaks up retail traders put in the earlier profits and it goes up quick to the next resistance level. If it drops out of the pennant they sell some more, reinvesting some profits in a lower fibo level and see if that holds. If it drops more some sell more, combined with people who start panick selling. Eventually at some point a new floor is created in where barely anyone trades or panicks and from there it starts all over again.

At least, that is what I think is happening, and has happened past few weeks for example. Such corrections are good because a new 'safe' floor is created, in this case between 1.30-1.50 instead of the 0.50 of a few weeks back. From here it is probably up again, but if whales decide they want to retest the 0.75 support we have been fighting for three years as a resistance it could very well happen.

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