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I think there is something esle important to consider.  The roughly 33 billion not held by Ripple is not on the market.  Much of the 20 billion given to founders is in lock up agreements (even if Jed doesn't abide by them) and Ripple stated that much of the xrp given to partners also had lock ups.  So the amount available on the market is considerablly smaller than the amount created.  Of course this has to be balanced with the fact that Ripple could distribute the amount they hold at any time, in any amount, for any price.  I don't think they'd do anything crazy but it does give investors reason to pause.

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  I think it all depends on how much XRP get distributed.   Assuming the market goes crazy and hits peak b

I foresee the price having some swings fueled by speculation in the short term, possible a max high of $0.02. But over the long term, at least by the time all xrp are released on the network? I see th

I'm not so sure XRP will be the bridge of choice for banks. I was merely responding to the statement that the primary use of XRP is transaction fees. I fully expect that central banks will bridge all

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15 minutes ago, karlos said:

 

But what about the highest price it will ever go? 

 

I foresee the price having some swings fueled by speculation in the short term, possible a max high of $0.02. But over the long term, at least by the time all xrp are released on the network? I see the price being very steady and kept low.

 

We have to remember the intended users are FI's and there are some unique consequences. FI's are able to buy large volumes off market. Importantly FIs are very experienced with market ripples, price distortions and what not. And this is a utility, not a vehicle for investment to FIs, there will be tightly controlled release and disbursement onto the general market- with most of the xrp being destroyed.

 

A large surge in electricity usage by the manufacturing plant across state would drive up the price for all users on the grid. But a constant draw with per-determined and contractual rates? Grid users wouldn't notice any raise. Ripple is acting as the grid provider, granting FI exclusive rates who in turn will re-issue xrp into the market over a protracted time at a steady rate, with a percent of their holdings being earmarked for destruction.

 

Bitcoin price surged when speculation went wild, in part driving by rookie or average investors. Contrast that to now- a more experienced user base, some serious investors and FIs- the price is more controlled and flat.

 

There is one other factor I am surprised that is not discussed more. In the early days some bitcoin users made big profits with arbitrage. The average user just couldn't access or see the various exchanges and prices where able to swing widely from one to the next. Now with market bots and more users across the exchanges we see the prices raise and fall in near consort. Ripple on the other hand has an internal ledger that anyone can see- we know the prices across exchanges and while there is some arbitrage to be had, but this is offset by other factors (ex:fees). Factor in xrp as a major equalizing/ equilibrium force between pairs and we see a very calm market. Shocks can be weathered and while some price surges will happen they will be so small that most users wont notice them.

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I don't know what you guys are all figuring out to calculate a price. Before any calculation can be made one 's got to lay out the potential use case.

And that's where I should be very very prudent. For banks I do not see a use case on XRP. And no matter how you look at it: banks will not go away.

When they adapt smart, they even can have the power to fight all new contenders out of the payments business.

If that's going to happen it will or can become an XRP-less (even if still Ripple based) cluster of ledgers....

Edited by kanaas
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31 minutes ago, kanaas said:

I don't know what you guys are all figuring out to calculate a price. Before any calculation can be made one 's got to lay out the potential use case.

And that's where I should be very very prudent. For banks I do not see a use case on XRP. And no matter how you look at it: banks will not go away.

When they adapt smart, they even can have the power to fight all new contenders out of the payments business.

If that's going to happen it will or can become an XRP-less (even if still Ripple based) cluster of ledgers....

 

OK. Assuming you are correct and the majority of users (FIs) end up not using xrp or somehow forcing or hindering the casual user from any meaningful network use - that wont happen tomorrow. Or likely any time next year, we are far from having multiple banks actually using ripple.

 

Realistically we can only forecast at most the next 6-12 months and the banks direct impact probably wont be an issue within that time frame.

 

In that case what do you see has the high/ low?

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2 hours ago, Mercury said:

 

I agree, most price forecasting is assuming the price is linked to speculation and investment. Even the figures thrown out on total market caps and bitcoin prices comparison are simple justifications for speculation.

 

Don't get me wrong- I hope for a price surge and I personally hold xrp for speculation purposes, but if the use case for ripple (in particular the forex markets) pans out the major use would be transaction costs. In this scenario nobody will pay $$ for a transactions, the idea is to lower costs and the working price will never raise above a few cents or even fraction of a cent. The big difference would be in volume.

 

 

The primary use case is not transaction costs; it's bridge currency. R(L) doesn't foresee much demand for IOUs in RCL. If it's used it will be used for trading XRP against other currencies. As far as transaction costs go, the fee will adjust based on the value of XRP so it really doesn't matter whether XRP is worth a lot or a little in that regard.

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23 minutes ago, brianwalden said:

 

The primary use case is not transaction costs; it's bridge currency. R(L) doesn't foresee much demand for IOUs in RCL. If it's used it will be used for trading XRP against other currencies. As far as transaction costs go, the fee will adjust based on the value of XRP so it really doesn't matter whether XRP is worth a lot or a little in that regard.

 

I understand that very well. But what makes you so sure that RCL/XRP will become the bridgeway of choice for banks? What if any other organisation hooks in with the ILP to serve as a bridge? Every central bank could do this. What if the Fed Reserve creates a ledger with USD-linked tokens? What do you think banks will choose to bridge with? Something they are used to (USD) or some other new kid in town (XRP)?

With ILP (what's a very great solution!!!) there indeed is created a need for some digital center/bridging currencies. But I've my doubts that XRP will be one of them. It's a peace of cake to create a ripple-like ledger and make it work with USD as the "reference"-token.

If Ripple has a plan to make XRP more attractive I would be glad to read it, but until now I'm afraid that they just do not know themselves how to handle XRP within their own new reality.

They seem to bet on MM's but that makes me smile. MM's will never turn to XRP by lack of a good reason...

 

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54 minutes ago, Mercury said:

 

OK. Assuming you are correct and the majority of users (FIs) end up not using xrp or somehow forcing or hindering the casual user from any meaningful network use - that wont happen tomorrow. Or likely any time next year, we are far from having multiple banks actually using ripple.

 

Realistically we can only forecast at most the next 6-12 months and the banks direct impact probably wont be an issue within that time frame.

 

In that case what do you see has the high/ low?

 

I guess XRP will slightly decline but  impossible to forecast how fast.

OTOH we do not know the plans Ripple might have in hand to make XRP more attractive. But if they have, they better show up fast with them....

For me it became a big uncertainty regarding XRP, but for Ripple tech and ILP I've set up big eyes. That's going to become huge. That's my bet.

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I think the XRP is going to go up in value. I am not going to delight you with absurd calculations. I think it is difficult to do it simply because the most of the XRP is not on the market. Said that it is on Ripple's interest to make the XRP value grow. Yes of course someone will say that Ripple will be paid for the service they offer to the banks. But I think it is not enough for a Company baked by Google :-). I think they are more ambicious.... Plus it could seem irrilevant but the fact that their employees are paid with XRP, to me is a divine sign :-).  But of course a serious  growth in value of XRP is not going to happen tomorrow. 

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1 hour ago, kanaas said:

 

I understand that very well. But what makes you so sure that RCL/XRP will become the bridgeway of choice for banks? What if any other organisation hooks in with the ILP to serve as a bridge? Every central bank could do this. What if the Fed Reserve creates a ledger with USD-linked tokens? What do you think banks will choose to bridge with? Something they are used to (USD) or some other new kid in town (XRP)?

 

 

I'm not so sure XRP will be the bridge of choice for banks. I was merely responding to the statement that the primary use of XRP is transaction fees. I fully expect that central banks will bridge all commercial banks in their respective countries. R(L) has their eye on the cross-currency slice of the pie. What would make people choose XRP over USD or EUR? There are two basic reasons: 1) they see RCL as a better ledger for their needs, or 2) they see XRP as a better currency for their needs. Will they? I don't know, this is not the type of thinking I'm good at. You could get a more accurate prediction about the price of XRP by farting in to a decibel meter than by any guess I'd make.

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17 minutes ago, brianwalden said:

 

 You could get a more accurate prediction about the price of XRP by farting in to a decibel meter than by any guess I'd make.

 

Hey Brian, you know that the engineering community is always looking for good ways to generate random numbers. I think you might be on to something.

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1 hour ago, brianwalden said:

 

I'm not so sure XRP will be the bridge of choice for banks. I was merely responding to the statement that the primary use of XRP is transaction fees. I fully expect that central banks will bridge all commercial banks in their respective countries. R(L) has their eye on the cross-currency slice of the pie. What would make people choose XRP over USD or EUR? There are two basic reasons: 1) they see RCL as a better ledger for their needs, or 2) they see XRP as a better currency for their needs. Will they? I don't know, this is not the type of thinking I'm good at. You could get a more accurate prediction about the price of XRP by farting in to a decibel meter than by any guess I'd make.

 

Nobody can know how it will turn out. But from how I see it, it will be the duality of the options with fiat or crypto as a bridge.

Fiat has the advantage of usage, banks and MM know what it is and how to handle it. But fiat has one big problem as its price setting with DLT may be hard and even artificial as the issued number has to be controlled by a central party (not so with XRP). But when used as a bridge and kept stable that issue is minor and even non existing. Question is: will the Fed create a "FedDistributedLedger" with a "digital-USD" that they also will have to support and control? Or will there be other Nations walking that road?

A LOT will depend on how Ripple will build, handle and use their relations. And to be honest I've not a good eye in this. They still are to much "Bitcoin" and are not enough grown up in finance (just listen to some of their jokers like Zeiler to understand why banks and FI's might distrust them). Being splendid, smart developers might be just not enough in this area....

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1 hour ago, brianwalden said:

 

I'm not so sure XRP will be the bridge of choice for banks. I was merely responding to the statement that the primary use of XRP is transaction fees. I fully expect that central banks will bridge all commercial banks in their respective countries. R(L) has their eye on the cross-currency slice of the pie. What would make people choose XRP over USD or EUR? There are two basic reasons: 1) they see RCL as a better ledger for their needs, or 2) they see XRP as a better currency for their needs. Will they? I don't know, this is not the type of thinking I'm good at. You could get a more accurate prediction about the price of XRP by farting in to a decibel meter than by any guess I'd make.

 

XRP transaction fees may not be the intended primary use, but it is the only mandated use. While I certainly hope for more use its not certain.

 

SO to round it up the general consensus is that in the short term the price will be steady with occasional peeks and valleys and for the long term xrp will either fade and burn out or else make us all very rich?

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