Revisiting the FLR price (current price $1.71, 1.24XRP)

[Seoulite]

Now that more people are paying attention to the XRP price, the FLR price is also turning more heads. As expected when XRP ran up the FLR/XRP price fell, although it didn't fall as much as I was hoping. Still, from a high of 4.3XRP down to 0.83 is a decent fall. If/when XRP continues to go I am expecting it to fall further. There's absolutely no reason why FLR should keep pace with XRP before the network is even live. I mean there's irrational markets and then there's irrational markets.

FLRUSD also fell but was held above a dollar, which surprised and disappointed me because I wanted to buy more but anything above a dollar still feels too expensive. Now the price is recovering back to the ATH of $1.87. 

I've said here before that my working theory was that the FLR price was being pumped in anticipation of an XRP spike, which would then dump the FLR price back to 'reasonable' levels (somewhere around 20-50 cents) when XRP took off. That happened to a certain extent but the price has been kept above $1. At this point it's time to reassess.

It is possible that the FLR price will keep pace with the XRP price to a certain extent. If XRP continues to go then FLR above a dollar or two dollars for the next few months seems plausible. However, these prices will be making a lot of people decide to push the sell button ASAP. The higher the price at launch the bigger the possibility of a significant sell-off. It kinda depends on how many exchanges list FLR pairs from the off, and I'm not expecting the biggest exchanges to do so right away but a decent number of the lesser exchanges probably will. Of course Bitrue will be the first port of call for many looking to offload.

I would guess we are going to see a lot of volatility at launch. Will the FLR price ever be single digits again? At this point I doubt it, especially if XRP is still at these levels, let alone higher. 25 cent FLR? Possible I think, but not for long. The prospect of riskless, unlocked yield token is attractive. 

In any case, once the Flare Network starts ramping up I would expect the FLR price to have a low end of a dollar at least. Likely more. In his latest video @MickeyBFresh said the FLR would eventually surpass BNB, in the range of hundreds of dollars. For those kinds of predictions we need to assume that the crypto space and DeFi have also expanded massively, not just Flare or XRP. So I'm reluctant to talk in that way, but from a pure technical analysis point of view Flare in its current state certainly has the potential to surpass XRP in price. 

What do you guys think? Just spitballing.

[Guest]

Agree that there’s going to be an inevitable dump on day 1/2 and every month with the airdrop. 

A brilliant move by Flare is the distributed airdrops - even if it is a huge pain for US tax payers. On day 1, available FLR is some 6.75B (15% of 45B) with liquidity slowly added over time. At 10 cents, that’s a market cap of 675M, which is respectable. But if Ripple’s lawsuit is close to a positive conclusion, it would have room to grow.

FLR overtaking XRP price is possible of course, but I think FLR will be seen as a competitor to ETH, ADA etc, and market cap might come at the expense of those two (or be hindered because of them)

[Seoulite]

2 hours ago, Ripley said:

Agree that there’s going to be an inevitable dump on day 1/2 and every month with the airdrop. 

A brilliant move by Flare is the distributed airdrops - even if it is a huge pain for US tax payers. On day 1, available FLR is some 6.75B (15% of 45B) with liquidity slowly added over time. At 10 cents, that’s a market cap of 675M, which is respectable. But if Ripple’s lawsuit is close to a positive conclusion, it would have room to grow.

FLR overtaking XRP price is possible of course, but I think FLR will be seen as a competitor to ETH, ADA etc, and market cap might come at the expense of those two (or be hindered because of them)

I agree that FLR is more of a competition to ETH and ADA, but in terms of supply it is the same as XRP so that's why I was comparing it.

Also re: taxes, some people are pretty adamant that the airdrop has zero value from the beginning and therefore is not taxable. Not sure if that's true of just the first 15% drop or it's true of each drop. 

[agonyaunt]

4 hours ago, Seoulite said:

Now that more people are paying attention to the XRP price, the FLR price is also turning more heads. As expected when XRP ran up the FLR/XRP price fell, although it didn't fall as much as I was hoping. Still, from a high of 4.3XRP down to 0.83 is a decent fall. If/when XRP continues to go I am expecting it to fall further. There's absolutely no reason why FLR should keep pace with XRP before the network is even live. I mean there's irrational markets and then there's irrational markets.

FLRUSD also fell but was held above a dollar, which surprised and disappointed me because I wanted to buy more but anything above a dollar still feels too expensive. Now the price is recovering back to the ATH of $1.87. 

I've said here before that my working theory was that the FLR price was being pumped in anticipation of an XRP spike, which would then dump the FLR price back to 'reasonable' levels (somewhere around 20-50 cents) when XRP took off. That happened to a certain extent but the price has been kept above $1. At this point it's time to reassess.

It is possible that the FLR price will keep pace with the XRP price to a certain extent. If XRP continues to go then FLR above a dollar or two dollars for the next few months seems plausible. However, these prices will be making a lot of people decide to push the sell button ASAP. The higher the price at launch the bigger the possibility of a significant sell-off. It kinda depends on how many exchanges list FLR pairs from the off, and I'm not expecting the biggest exchanges to do so right away but a decent number of the lesser exchanges probably will. Of course Bitrue will be the first port of call for many looking to offload.

I would guess we are going to see a lot of volatility at launch. Will the FLR price ever be single digits again? At this point I doubt it, especially if XRP is still at these levels, let alone higher. 25 cent FLR? Possible I think, but not for long. The prospect of riskless, unlocked yield token is attractive. 

In any case, once the Flare Network starts ramping up I would expect the FLR price to have a low end of a dollar at least. Likely more. In his latest video @MickeyBFresh said the FLR would eventually surpass BNB, in the range of hundreds of dollars. For those kinds of predictions we need to assume that the crypto space and DeFi have also expanded massively, not just Flare or XRP. So I'm reluctant to talk in that way, but from a pure technical analysis point of view Flare in its current state certainly has the potential to surpass XRP in price. 

What do you guys think? Just spitballing.

I would expect the value of FLR will be greater than XRP

[brianwalden]

11 hours ago, agonyaunt said:

I would expect the value of FLR will be greater than XRP

I agree. If the Flare Network is successful, its token will be worth more than XRP. It's got to support all those F-assets. But I still can't fathom it being worth more than a few cents on day one. Maybe I'm too old for this and crypto works different today.

[agonyaunt]

10 hours ago, brianwalden said:

I agree. If the Flare Network is successful, its token will be worth more than XRP. It's got to support all those F-assets. But I still can't fathom it being worth more than a few cents on day one. Maybe I'm too old for this and crypto works different today.

Yes. If and when the Flare Network gets successful. Although there are number of contingencies, one of my favorite part is Hugo's background. Unlike most of founders, he was a 'commodity derivatives portfolio manager at two $1bn+ funds'. One thing for sure is I'm still scratching my head to understand how crypto works and make money