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Effect of the the extended airdrop on price?


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4 hours ago, brianwalden said:

Has anyone ever had a coin with this type of extended distribution schedule? Do you think there will be a dip in price every month when the new coins are airdropped?

Really interesting question. Given that the airdrop is 15% day one and then 3% a month from then I think we'll see a large amount of selling in the first few days. If many exchanges create their own pairs then god knows what price they start at. The bitrue chart is a kind of guide but that doesn't mean people will stick to it. Prices could start at 0.005 cents on some exchanges, $5 on some exchanges, and it will take a while for it all to even out. 

After that with each 3% drop people will fall into several categories:

- people who don't know it's happening or don't care

- people who want to sell immediately

- people who want to hold no matter what

- people who are deciding based on the price

I don't think we will see a significant dip immediately with every drop. Maybe a small dip, but it will be spread out over time because I don't think the people who click sell immediately will be the majority. It will depend on the price and the psychology of the market at that time. If the market wasn't crypto, I would expect to see some kind of pattern emerge around these significant drops. But since it is crypto these kind of things can easily get lost in the greater volatility. I am expecting that after a year the FLR chart will look similar to any other alt chart. 

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It's a fun exercise to try and predict future market behaviors. 

Given the fact we had over 11,000 active participants in the aborted Public Beta for FF, we can expect a healthy level of initial participation in the race to earn as much as possible the tiny and coveted YFIN allotment. Since that activity will lead to locking up many YFLR tokens - at a growing pace due to reward compounding - there will be an immediate market to buying up all the seller's offers.

Additionally, there will be a similar demand for the wrapped assets (XRP, LTC, etc) for the same reward-driven reasons, also locking up YFLR.

For other FLR holders, a goodly number of them will have either a wait-and-see attitude - doing nothing initially - and others whom will be too busy or distracted to immediately do anything with their newly acquired gift of FLR; this will leave a certain number of FLR holders which are impatient to dump and go buy their new Lambos ASAP!! (or invest in some yummy DOGE or NANO tokens).

Meanwhile - should this launch period result in an upwards trending FLR price action - this will cause many to HODL their FLR and sing the YOLO songs of hope and greed we all know too well. 

IMHO, the most important element to the future success or failure of the Flare ecosystem, will be what reports and speculations of actual applications that in the pipe, awaiting deployment and utilization to actually USE the Flare Network's services and capabilities - the length of time which this will end up taking - plus the dwindling allotment of YFIN running out - will decide the mid-term fate of the nascent network and Flare Finance liquidity pools and services... 

This, my friends, will be the dicey decision time that will gladden or crush our throbbing hopium hearts :) 

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