Why I think the FLR IOU price matters (current price $1.17, 2.7 XRP)

[Seoulite]

I understand and accept the arguments that the trading on Bitrue is a walled garden where demand is infinite but supply is limited, which means that the price can easily be inflated. However what I want to argue here is that, inflated or not, the price action is nonetheless important because of its impact on sentiment.

Price action is like an elephant pounding through the jungle: wherever it has been, a path has been cleared, and so it is easier to go there again. This is why $3 XRP is a thousand times more believable than $10 XRP. Because people have already clicked buy and sell at those levels. It is possible because it has happened before. 

At some point these FLRUSD / FLRXRP IOU charts on Bitrue will become the real charts. They will be the oldest historical data on the price action of FLR, and they will show a high of $1.24 / 2.8 XRP. That is pretty astounding and will make FLR look much more attractive as a buy. This price movement could bring real hype. I don't know if that's good or bad.

I bought ADA because of where the ATH was. I didn't know much about the project, wasn't excited about it, but because the price had gone there before the possibility was much higher of it going there again. 

I think FLR is starting to resemble other alt charts, in that there is an early run up, followed by a deep correction, and then higher highs. This is the Quant chart:

The Avalanche chart:

Link:

You get the idea. If I'm right (VERY big if) we will see a similar pattern with FLR. When it was bouncing around at 25 cents, even 40 cents, I wouldn't have said anything like this. But we are now at levels that are getting difficult to ignore. 

What do you guys think?

Edited March 15, 2021 by Seoulite

[Guest]

I’m still not convinced, because today’s volume equivalent of ~$500000 and based on the depth chart, it’ll only take about a 10th of that to bump it to $1.5.That’s chump change for close to a 40% bump.

That said, I’m happy that there is a net positive sentiment, even if it is limited. We’re currently in a bull market with extreme FOMO and I can see a possibility that people would want to reinvest their profits from other coins into a new coin.

I also recently discovered that Cointracker, for example, takes a liberal approach to wrapping coins in that though it is technically a sale (taxable) and a purchase, it treats wrapping as a “personal transfer” because that is the intent.

Hopium Warning

That is good because -

• Long term XRP holders (usually have large bags) will probably wrap and delegate votes to FTSOs, or provide liquidity to Agents (or both) to get FLR. Not all exchanges would support this on day 1, so I expect that people will move their XRP out to wallets. That’ll probably drive up prices of XRP.
• People are going to stake FLR itself. Again, not all exchanges would support staking on day 1, so this would reduce liquidity and therefore put upward pressure on the price.
• Folks from LTC, XLM, and DOGE and going to jump into the bandwagon to earn FLR rewards by staking “their” coins. There may well be a “us vs the rest” because the only way to get FLR for “free” is to wrap coins from supported blockchains.
• When other applications (Trustline, FlareFinance etc) launch, FLR is going to get locked up more.

I’m quite excited about the possibilities given the irrational market we’re. I know this is a contra-point and my other posts should indicate how I feel about the current market. But to me Flare could be XRP holders’ way to participate in the bull market while we wait for the lawsuit to be resolved. If the lawsuit is resolved in a way that allows Ripple to move forward, then... 

 

 

[Guest]

30 minutes ago, Seoulite said:

What do you guys think?

Guess I sort of agreed with your general sense of hope, even though I literally started with “I’m not convinced” 😆 Funny how things work out.

What can I say ? Hopium is free. I really don’t want to pay those taxes though

[Seoulite]

17 minutes ago, Ripley said:

’m still not convinced, because today’s volume equivalent of ~$500000 and based on the depth chart, it’ll only take about a 10th of that to bump it to $1.5.That’s chump change for close to a 40% bump.

I agree but to me the important thing is that it is being bumped. Taking prices to any level is a signal. We are very high prices. I mean a few weeks ago I thought 50 cents was a ridiculous price. We are now at $1.15. The chart just topped at 2.98 XRP. As I said, the fact that volume is low doesn't really matter because the price action is there. It happened. People bought and sold FLR for over a dollar. My point is that that means people are much more likely to do it again. And that's why this is significant IMO.

[Seoulite]

It is starting to go parabolic. Volume is lower than it was before, but there is less sell resistance too. The question now is where is the top. Very hard to say. When you are in uncharted territory the only thing left to go by is 'big' numbers, basically the milestones. 3 XRP is a big number. $1.50 is the next big USDT number. Break 3 XRP and 3.5 is the next big number. How far can this thing reach before they put the brakes on?

[Guest]

I wonder if Flare negotiated how liquidity is introduced to the markets. For example, is trading going to start on all exchanges on day 1 ? Is it up to the exchanges ? Or is it a negotiation with Flare in a way that gradually introduces liquidity ? 
 

That’ll play into price action quite a bit.

[brianwalden]

If FLR debuts at $1 or more, where will it be when the network actually starts to gain some real adoption? The thought is kind of scary.

[agonyaunt]

4 hours ago, Seoulite said:

I understand and accept the arguments that the trading on Bitrue is a walled garden where demand is infinite but supply is limited, which means that the price can easily be inflated. However what I want to argue here is that, inflated or not, the price action is nonetheless important because of its impact on sentiment.

Price action is like an elephant pounding through the jungle: wherever it has been, a path has been cleared, and so it is easier to go there again. This is why $3 XRP is a thousand times more believable than $10 XRP. Because people have already clicked buy and sell at those levels. It is possible because it has happened before. 

At some point these FLRUSD / FLRXRP IOU charts on Bitrue will become the real charts. They will be the oldest historical data on the price action of FLR, and they will show a high of $1.24 / 2.8 XRP. That is pretty astounding and will make FLR look much more attractive as a buy. This price movement could bring real hype. I don't know if that's good or bad.

I bought ADA because of where the ATH was. I didn't know much about the project, wasn't excited about it, but because the price had gone there before the possibility was much higher of it going there again. 

I think FLR is starting to resemble other alt charts, in that there is an early run up, followed by a deep correction, and then higher highs. This is the Quant chart:

The Avalanche chart:

Link:

You get the idea. If I'm right (VERY big if) we will see a similar pattern with FLR. When it was bouncing around at 25 cents, even 40 cents, I wouldn't have said anything like this. But we are now at levels that are getting difficult to ignore. 

What do you guys think?

I'd think the value of FLR will/should be greater than XRP. The way I see what Flare Networks is going to achieve is becoming [1] a platform that connects fiat, DC, and applications [2] Digital gold like USD was backed by gold. My hypothetical approach is based on "In order to create a representation of XRP on Flare in a trustless and decentralized manner, we first make the assumption that the loss of a unit of XRP to a designated beneficiary can be fully rectified by awarding said beneficiary an alternative asset that allows them to replace the lost unit of XRP with no additional financial burden. This assumption allows us to specify the creation of an asset on Flare called FXRP which is convertible for XRP and collateralized by Flare’s native token, the Spark" (https://flare.xyz/app/uploads/2020/08/FXRP_Version_1.0.pdf). When and if the FXRP system gets matured, FLR's market cap needs to be greater than XRP at minimum based on the FXRP Issuance_Cap=SC÷ (CR*η) formula.

Cheers, 

Edited March 16, 2021 by agonyaunt

[Seoulite]

35 minutes ago, Ripley said:

I wonder if Flare negotiated how liquidity is introduced to the markets. For example, is trading going to start on all exchanges on day 1 ? Is it up to the exchanges ? Or is it a negotiation with Flare in a way that gradually introduces liquidity ? 
 

That’ll play into price action quite a bit.

My guess is that virtually all exchanges will create custody wallets, and a decent number will prepare trading pairs for day 1. The reason is they are forfeiting that trading volume if they don't. I don't think it will be all exchanges, maybe not even a majority, but a decent number. The distribution schedule they've decided is their way of negotiating the introduction of liquidity. 

[Seoulite]

9 minutes ago, brianwalden said:

If FLR debuts at $1 or more, where will it be when the network actually starts to gain some real adoption? The thought is kind of scary.

This is what is frightening me too. I am scared to hope, but as I said above if the price has been there before then it makes it a whole lot easier to imagine it going there again...

[Seoulite]

6 minutes ago, agonyaunt said:

When and if the FXRP system gets matured, FLR's market cap needs to be greater than XRP at minimum based on the FXRP Issuance_Cap=SC÷ (CR*η) formula.

Sure it needs to be, but will it be? That's the big question. Most of us here think that FLR is going to increase in value over time, but what is continuously shocking to me is that it has gone up so far so fast before the thing is even live. These are heady times.

[Seoulite]

Why. Is. No one. Selling.

 

[brianwalden]

Could it be that most people don't know about it? Their money is just sitting there and they haven't checked in? I mean Bitrue just handed it out to everyone who had any XRP, right?

[brianwalden]

When Flare comes out, someone needs to make a smart contract to sell your future FLR. You find someone willing to pay you a lump sum now to get the remainder of your FLR paid over time.

Edited March 16, 2021 by brianwalden

[Seoulite]

3 hours ago, brianwalden said:

Could it be that most people don't know about it? Their money is just sitting there and they haven't checked in? I mean Bitrue just handed it out to everyone who had any XRP, right?

Imagine if this thing comes back to Earth and you check it later and realise you could've made a bucket load of cash but didn't cause you didn't check. Harsh.