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Selling pressure on XRP (JED's sells only) vs BTC (mining)


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So let's say BTC mining generate 900 BTC a day (info I found)

Right now JED's sales is 38M/day

BTC 900/day

Making all the calculations and keeping proportions of Market Caps of both,

JED's sales alone making 20x more selling pressure on XRP than the WHOLE mining industry on BTC.

Am I missing something? Someone else tried to calculate this thing?

 

Edited by Canducus
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2 hours ago, Canducus said:

So let's say BTC mining generate 900 BTC a day (info I found)

Right now JED's sales is 38M/day

BTC 900/day

Making all the calculations and keeping proportions of Market Caps of both,

JED's sales alone making 20x more selling pressure on XRP than the WHOLE mining industry on BTC.

Am I missing something? Someone else tried to calculate this thing?

 

6,25BTC is mined every 10 minutes on average. So 6*24*6,25=900BTC per day indeed. 

900*$50k equals $ 45.000.000

Jed currently sells 38mln XRP per day due to high volume two weeks ago. Last week he sold 19mln daily. Next week will be lower again because of dropping volume. 

38million XRP*$0,50 equals $ 19.000.000.

(BTC and XRP are at 57k and 0,57 currently)

So no, easy calculation shows not 20x more sell pressure... However BTC 24hr volume is higher then that of XRP. Thats the dumb thing about the deal. They base it on volume of weeks ago. 

Edited by Caracappa
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54 minutes ago, Caracappa said:

6,25BTC is mined every 10 minutes on average. So 6*24*6,25=900BTC per day indeed. 

900*$50k equals $ 45.000.000

Jed currently sells 38mln XRP per day due to high volume two weeks ago. Last week he sold 19mln daily. Next week will be lower again because of dropping volume. 

38million XRP*$0,50 equals $ 19.000.000.

(BTC and XRP are at 57k and 0,57 currently)

So no, easy calculation shows not 20x more sell pressure... However BTC 24hr volume is higher then that of XRP. Thats the dumb thing about the deal. They base it on volume of weeks ago. 

This didn't take into consideration of the total Market Cap or Circulating Supply differences between BTC and XRP.  Which these factors will ultimately impact the actual selling pressure for each crypto.

 

I quickly drafted up calculations considering the market cap and circulating supply differences.  Feel free to note any numbers I incorrectly calculated.  Based on these numbers, I am seeing Jed's sales currently having 15- 18 times as much selling pressure as BTC mining.  This isn't even including if/when other areas can start selling XRP again (Previous Ripple donations, COIL, Ripple sale's, Brad/Chris, etc.).

 

image.thumb.png.13e42544c9fb6aca81db744551d2f173.png

Edited by wogojump
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2 hours ago, Gepster said:

Cryptocompare top tier volume today:
BTC: 18 Billion   45million = 0.25%
XRP:   2 Billion   20million =  1%

good maths, thanks. So when Jed is done selling, it is likely that xrp will go up?

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33 minutes ago, Jack21 said:

good maths, thanks. So when Jed is done selling, it is likely that xrp will go up?

At current prices he still needs to leech 1800million dollars out of the market.
It's safe to say when that's not happening anymore it increases the likelyhood, yes.

 

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5 hours ago, wogojump said:

This didn't take into consideration of the total Market Cap or Circulating Supply differences between BTC and XRP.  Which these factors will ultimately impact the actual selling pressure for each crypto.

 

I quickly drafted up calculations considering the market cap and circulating supply differences.  Feel free to note any numbers I incorrectly calculated.  Based on these numbers, I am seeing Jed's sales currently having 15- 18 times as much selling pressure as BTC mining.  This isn't even including if/when other areas can start selling XRP again (Previous Ripple donations, COIL, Ripple sale's, Brad/Chris, etc.).

 

image.thumb.png.13e42544c9fb6aca81db744551d2f173.png

 

This calculation is inaccurate. Using arbitrary definition such as market cap and circulating supply vs how much is sold is mathematically and logically incorrect. If you were to calculate sales pressure percentage you should do it either based on 24 hr volume or liquidity.

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4 hours ago, solid102 said:

 

This calculation is inaccurate. Using arbitrary definition such as market cap and circulating supply vs how much is sold is mathematically and logically incorrect. If you were to calculate sales pressure percentage you should do it either based on 24 hr volume or liquidity.

When looking at 24 hr volume calculation, I am seeing XRP being about ~3.5 times as much.  I am not familiar enough with how liquidity is calculated to effectively interpret this metric.

image.thumb.png.2d683c35d69e343f000dfe2e63bc3049.png

I am not sure how any of my calculations are mathematically off.  In regards to being logically correct, market cap is often debated on usefulness.  You could take average price of sales for last 24 hours, month, etc.; which would still show similar results.

 

The circulating supply calculation is not arbitrary, this is based on defined values of cryptocurrency units available to be traded on open market vs. additional units that were introduced.  Circulating supply is equivalent to public companies issuing & buying back additional stock shares, as well as US Federal Reserve printing new money. Also, the actual amount of 900 BTC mined a day, I believe only a percentage of this is actually sold on the open market. A example of importance of this metric:

* Lets say Jed could continue selling 38 million XRP per day for a whole year.  This would be about 14 billion XRP he was able to introduce and sell on the open market in one year. So this would have increased circulating supply by ~27%. Or when just looking at inflation impacts, if no other factors came into play this would make your XRP holdings ~78% of the value at the end of the year as compared to the value at beginning of the year.

 

Now just to note extreme examples to emphasis importance on this (please note these are not actual realistic numbers to continue for next few years).  Lets say all factors stay the same with XRP on usefulness and value, look at these two extreme case:

  1. Next 4 years Jed and Ripple could continue selling 14 billion XRP on the open market every year-  This would mean there is about ~106 billion XRP in circulating supply (real max circulating supply is 100 billion, minus burned XRP and lost wallets).  This would result in dramatic inflation of the value of your XRP from the start to the end of 4 years, resulting in your personal XRP holding being ~48% value of the original amount.
  2. Next 4 years Jed and Ripple cannot continue selling 14 billion XRP on the open market every year, but rather have to burn or buy & permanently hold additional 14 billion XRP each year. In less that 4 years, there would be no available XRP for them to burn or buy & permanently hold.  The last few people that held XRP, their holdings would be equivalent to the current market cap.  Which would be extremely high, if there was someone buying 14 billion XRP a year and never selling.

 

Scenario 1 above, is not actually that extreme. Ripple has been on track to dump majority of their XRP on the open market in the next 5-10 years, until the SEC stepped in. Scenario 2 above is not realistic, but having the circulation supply deflating like by 2% a year is possible. This can happen if Ripple is blocked from dumping XRP on the market and factors like high usage burn rates, lost wallets, etc. occur.

 

Edited by wogojump
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1 hour ago, wogojump said:

Also, the actual amount of 900 BTC mined a day, I believe only a percentage of this is actually sold on the open market. A example of importance of this metric:

* Lets say Jed could continue selling 38 million XRP per day for a whole year.  This would be about 14 billion XRP he was able to introduce and sell on the open market in one year. So this would have increased circulating supply by ~27%. Or when just looking at inflation impacts, if no other factors came into play this would make your XRP holdings ~78% of the value at the end of the year as compared to the value at beginning of the year.

Spot on. Only one part of mined BTCs are sold. People think that Jeds sells didnt not affect the price because the price of xrp doesnt not drop when he dumps. They do not realize that this constant dumping from Four horsemen caused enormous inflation.

XRP has been inflated for almost 20% in last 3 years. Crazy. People used to call this "DISTRIBUTION", but in reality it was massive greedy, reckless dumping. I wouldnt say a thing if they made at least some progress with ODL/xPring. 

So what is next? Jed will eventually sell everything. What happens with CL and BG? Are people willing to also buy few billions from them personally over the next 5-10 years? I know my answer. 

 

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1 hour ago, Kiwi said:

XRP has been inflated for almost 20% in last 3 years. Crazy. People used to call this "DISTRIBUTION", but in reality it was massive greedy, reckless dumping. I wouldnt say a thing if they made at least some progress with ODL/xPring. 

So what is next? Jed will eventually sell everything. What happens with CL and BG? Are people willing to also buy few billions from them personally over the next 5-10 years? I know my answer. 

 

Hopefully this SEC case turns out in our favor and ends up in Ripple having to handle distribution of the escrow and their private holdings differently in a way that doesn’t suppress the price so heavily and for so long. 

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