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Jed's XRP sales prediction Feb 7-14 2021


jbjnr
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Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, jbjnr said:

This comment was made on the "charting the course" thread, but I'd like to take the liberty of commenting on it here, since it's relevant to this thread

Jed sells every day, millions and millions, and so in the grand scheme of things, yes, (of course) it has an overall effect on the market, especially psychologically - and when his dumping is over, I'm sure there will be a great waving of flags and cracking open of champagne bottles throughout xrp land.

But...It's important to note how the sales are performed.  A sell order is placed for 250k xrp at a price just above the current one. Nothing may happen for some time. If the price starts to rise and reaches the sell order price, the sale goes through and someone out there who might have been prepared to pay slightly more, gets their xrp for a small amount less. If someone made a market order for some xrp and it eats into the order book, consumes a bunch of sells and then hits Jed's block, his gets consumed and the price might be slightly less than it would have been if his order wasn't there.

There is no "downward pressure", but there is a slight cap on "upward pressure" cause by his sells. After 10-30 seconds the next block of 250k is placed on the order book and the process repeats. If the price drops, the order sits there and nothing happens, after some time, the order is cancelled and a new one created at a lower price, but again just above the current price. Due to arbitrage across exchanges, and bots buying and selling as BTC rises and falls, these sells of Jeds are largely lost in the noise and don't really cause much interference.

BUT - it is true, if Jed has sold a couple of billion dollars worth of XRP and the market cap of XRP is 100 billion, then without his sales, we might expect the price to be a couple of % higher. Big wow. It rises and falls by almost 10% almost every day anyway!

Pyschologically, "yes". I agree, once he's done, the world will be a better place, and I reckon we'll see a small pump as people react. When he has a lot to sell on a low volume week, "yes" it troubles me - and, as I've mentioned before, his sales are based on two week ago volume, so they can be significant on the short term timescale - but overall and in the long term - he's selling hundreds of millions right now at a price of $1.50+ - for those of us who sat through 3 years of $0.2-$0.4 this is absolute gold. The price is not going back to those levels in a hurry.

Another good thing is that all this XRP isn’t just sitting on a shelf when he sells them, they’re getting spread out across thousands of different individuals and institutions, many of which plan on holding it, in effect “taking it out” of circulation, so while the max amount 100b XRP seems gargantuan, people and institutions are buying them up and I only see the crypto space growing and growing in the future. Due to the lockdowns and restrictions imposed upon us worldwide, we have hundreds of millions of people who have had more free time to be in their homes and use the internet WAY more than they have in the past and thus, educate themselves. This, coupled with the fact that the USA (and other countries who followed suit) have been printing staggering amounts of fiat while “managing inflation”, has put blockchain technology and cryptocurrency in the public eye. Not only that, simultaneously as crypto is being spoken about in the media, the public also sees that large institutions, many of which used to bash crypto, are now joining in and publicly stating they’re either adding crypto to their balance sheet and/or offering services, such as payments and custody supporting crypto. All the while we’re in the midst of a bullrun with Bitcoin and most major (and even the meme-coin) passing through all time highs and making the previous ones look “cheap” in comparison.

I’ve always been very skeptical about adoption, at least timeframe-wise, but it seems like this pandemic event fast forwarded the time frame and catapulted us into the future of finance and the internet of value much sooner than I anticipated. I dunno, call me optimistic but I think everything is lining up for this to be the biggest and perhaps even longest bullrun (in the crypto space) that we have ever witnessed.
 

A lot of people think BTC is running out of steam, and subsequently, the rest of the market, and while I used to agree up until recently, I now think the outlook is different. I think we’re about to see a domino effect of adoption, even if it is done so in small steps and reluctantly by some parties. What does this mean for the price? Well, some might argue this would mean that prices will now be more stable, and I think that will be true in the future, but in the short term, I think this means that we’re about to go on a very bumpy ride that will make these pumps and consolidations look like sideways action. 

Edited by Neurotoxin
I think I’ll take the liberty to do what jbjnr did but on the other thread since it catches way more eyes than this one.
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Posted (edited)

Im worried that Ripple who locked up their XRP in time bound escrow will dump BILLIONS!!!!! onto the market and crash the value of one of their key assets and that would destroy XRP forever, then the SEC will go after Jed for selling unregistered securities which will lead to Bitcoin becoming the only currency in the world.

Sorry, but I dont get why the SEC didn't include Jed in the lawsuit, when he is actually doing the harm causing behavior as a founder. I'm not saying he is moving the market now, but he certainly did when he first started dumping.

Edited by KarmaCoverage
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9 minutes ago, KarmaCoverage said:

Im worried that Ripple who locked up their XRP in time bound escrow will dump BILLIONS!!!!! onto the market and crash the value of one of their key assets and that would destroy XRP forever, then the SEC will go after Jed for selling unregistered securities which will lead to Bitcoin becoming the only currency in the world.

Sorry, but I dont get why the SEC didn't include Jed in the lawsuit, when he is actually doing the harm causing behavior as a founder. I'm not saying he is moving the market now, but he certainly did when he first started dumping.

I was there. I'd be willing to testify. He scared the shit out of everybody (yet I still think Ripple would have been better off if they had just ripped the band-aid off all at once and let him dump).

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11 minutes ago, brianwalden said:

I was there. I'd be willing to testify. He scared the shit out of everybody (yet I still think Ripple would have been better off if they had just ripped the band-aid off all at once and let him dump).

Well, the XRP would have certainly been distributed by now and I think we would have possibly already recovered. Not to mention those of us who would have seen the opportunity would have just gargantuan bags for cheap. 

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 5/10/2021 at 2:01 AM, jbjnr said:

This comment was made on the "charting the course" thread, but I'd like to take the liberty of commenting on it here, since it's relevant to this thread

Jed sells every day, millions and millions, and so in the grand scheme of things, yes, (of course) it has an overall effect on the market, especially psychologically - and when his dumping is over, I'm sure there will be a great waving of flags and cracking open of champagne bottles throughout xrp land.

But...It's important to note how the sales are performed.  A sell order is placed for 250k xrp at a price just above the current one. Nothing may happen for some time. If the price starts to rise and reaches the sell order price, the sale goes through and someone out there who might have been prepared to pay slightly more, gets their xrp for a small amount less. If someone made a market order for some xrp and it eats into the order book, consumes a bunch of sells and then hits Jed's block, his gets consumed and the price might be slightly less than it would have been if his order wasn't there.

There is no "downward pressure", but there is a slight cap on "upward pressure" cause by his sells. After 10-30 seconds the next block of 250k is placed on the order book and the process repeats. If the price drops, the order sits there and nothing happens, after some time, the order is cancelled and a new one created at a lower price, but again just above the current price. Due to arbitrage across exchanges, and bots buying and selling as BTC rises and falls, these sells of Jeds are largely lost in the noise and don't really cause much interference.

BUT - it is true, if Jed has sold a couple of billion dollars worth of XRP and the market cap of XRP is 100 billion, then without his sales, we might expect the price to be a couple of % higher. Big wow. It rises and falls by almost 10% almost every day anyway!

Pyschologically, "yes". I agree, once he's done, the world will be a better place, and I reckon we'll see a small pump as people react. When he has a lot to sell on a low volume week, "yes" it troubles me - and, as I've mentioned before, his sales are based on two week ago volume, so they can be significant on the short term timescale - but overall and in the long term - he's selling hundreds of millions right now at a price of $1.50+ - for those of us who sat through 3 years of $0.2-$0.4 this is absolute gold. The price is not going back to those levels in a hurry.

I've watched price action XRP for many months now and I think there is a trend that sort of confirms what you've said.  I routinely see the price of XRP pump very early in the trading day (UTC - 0) and a constant sell pressure back to where it came from.  This may happen several times.   There are days where the general market is down or up and those sales probably get buried in the price action and I can not see how the sales are processed.  When the price was very flat in the .38 to .48 range I would see this all the time.  Strangely enough, I also see it on XLM.  Who absorbs those coins has always been an unanswered question.  If they were absorbed by Ripple, then the reality of Jed's sales would be minimal.  If the public is absorbing them, then its hard to believe it hasnt been a  driver to XRP's lagging price behavior.  

We see large transfers of XRP to exchanges.  My instinct (really nothing but intuition) is that Ripple buys Jed's shares on the open market and resells them to exchanges.  I dont see why this would be illegal even if XRP were a security.

Anyway, a lot more conjecture.

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I think the question of why Jed can sell XRP is legal and why he isnt included in the lawsuit has been covered.  

However, I have a follow on question.  What exchange is Jed selling his shares?  Most exchanges have stopped trading XRP after the lawsuit which should limit Jed from selling his shares to all but a few (and only 1 major one (Kucoin) that I'm aware).  

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17 minutes ago, BarnBuilder said:

I think the question of why Jed can sell XRP is legal and why he isnt included in the lawsuit has been covered.  

However, I have a follow on question.  What exchange is Jed selling his shares?  Most exchanges have stopped trading XRP after the lawsuit which should limit Jed from selling his shares to all but a few (and only 1 major one (Kucoin) that I'm aware).  

People here say Jed's dumps are on XRPL's DEX.

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50 minutes ago, BarnBuilder said:

I think the question of why Jed can sell XRP is legal and why he isnt included in the lawsuit has been covered.  

However, I have a follow on question.  What exchange is Jed selling his shares?  Most exchanges have stopped trading XRP after the lawsuit which should limit Jed from selling his shares to all but a few (and only 1 major one (Kucoin) that I'm aware).  

He sells on the ledger on Bitstamp.  Look at the big sales that hit everyday.  That's him.

https://xrpcharts.ripple.com/#/markets/XRP/USD:rvYAfWj5gh67oV6fW32ZzP3Aw4Eubs59B?interval=30m&range=3d&type=line

 

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Just now, JASCoder said:

People here say Jed's dumps are on XRPL's DEX.

Thats even more interesting.  Is there that much liquidity on the DEX to support that level of sales?  Is the DEX primarily for OTC sales or is it publicly traded with higher volumes?

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9 minutes ago, BarnBuilder said:

Thats even more interesting.  Is there that much liquidity on the DEX to support that level of sales?  Is the DEX primarily for OTC sales or is it publicly traded with higher volumes?

It depends, most of the time 1-3 hours are more than enough to sell his amounts. For example today it only took him 2hours for 16m XRP. Everyone could trade on the DEX, sadly not many do know enough about it.
https://xrpl.org/decentralized-exchange.html

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7 minutes ago, BarnBuilder said:

Thats even more interesting.  Is there that much liquidity on the DEX to support that level of sales?  Is the DEX primarily for OTC sales or is it publicly traded with higher volumes?

Trading on the GateHub platform is using the DEX. You can also trade directly with XUMM's wallet IIRC. Besides GateHub, Bitstamp also provides a fiat bridge. You can see metrics here:
https://xrpcharts.ripple.com/#/xrp-markets

IMHO most of the traffic on the DEX are arbatridge bots. As you can see from the volume "XRP Ledger - Bitstamp/USD" at page above, the actual volume is comparatively low.

Our friend, jbjnr posts above the trading action on the DEX known to be Jed's ...

https://www.xrpchat.com/topic/36662-jeds-xrp-sales-prediction-feb-7-14-2021/?do=findComment&comment=927625

 

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