Jed's XRP sales prediction Feb 7-14 2021

[jbjnr]

1 hour ago, wogojump said:

One factor to consider as well, is Ripple and their executive's ability to still mass sell XRP after the SEC lawsuit is finished. At this time, it appears they will most likely still be able to continue selling XRP (which eventually is bought back by retail investors).  There are no guarantees how much and what strategies they will continue to use for selling XRP.

It's worth pointing out the difference between ripple's sales and Jed's. I did some extensive research on it in this thread https://www.xrpchat.com/topic/28981-analysis-of-ripples-xrp-sales/ and this one https://www.xrpchat.com/topic/29985-q4-analysisprediction/ and found the alarming rate of 3% of daily volume, which was revised downwards when I changed data source and Ripple (to their credit) reduced their sales sometime later when they decided that the volume figures they were using were inflated by wash trading from dodgy exchanges and they now use only cryptocompare "top tier" data I believe.

However, the important take away is that Ripple's programmatic sales for today were based on the volume traded yesterday. Jed's sales are based on the volume traded 2 weeks ago. If there is a massive surge in volume, it usually drops off in a controlled/gradual manner and so a large sale by Ripple et al on Tuesday, after a huge surge on monday isn't generally a major shock. When Jed sells in 2 weeks time after the recent surge has possibly dropped off to "normal" levels (which may not happen) - then the impact is much much larger. He might only sell 1.5% of volume from Day X, but if the sales happen on Day Y, 2 weeks later when the volume is 10% of what it was before, then that 1.5% is now 15% and does have an impact.

Not saying this will happen, but I would not worry about Ripple sales personally as I believe they have tried their best to not impact the market and have been "good shepherds" for xrp generally.

 

 

 

[jbjnr]

On 4/12/2021 at 10:59 AM, Triceratops said:

@jbjnr Did you already calculate the daily sale amount for the last week? I did some calculations and I think we could look at 75m daily sales next week, accounting for last weeks insane volume, what do you think about that number?

 

On 4/6/2021 at 9:17 AM, Triceratops said:

May I ask you a question, where do you get your trading volume information from?

Apologies for taking so long to get around to this. I modified my scripts, but for reasons I could not explain, my graphs just didn't look right. Last night I played some more and found the root of the problem - so I am now posting my latest findings, which are still not perfect, but look reasonably good. 

I'm getting sales volume data from Cryptocompare (CC from now on) using their "top tier" volume, which filters out some of the exchanges suspected to be inflating their volume. The data looks like this for the last few months. I plot the CC data alongside the bitstamp volume - just because I use bitstamp for my own trading and I'm always curious to see whether it shows a significant deviation from the total. It's clear that since the flare snapshot, volume has been up quite significantly (and it looks like bitstamp's share of the total is dropping, especially after the SEC lawsuit was dropped - and note tat the axes are different, 1e10 for CC, 1e9 for bitstamp)

 

Let's have a look at Jed's sales, plotted alongside the CC volume

It's pretty clear that when sales rise, there is a lag and then Jed's sales also rise (don't forget the scale difference). We know from the settlement that he sells a daily amount based on the 7 day average sales from 2 weeks before. Jed's sales peaked at 38m per day after the massive pump'n'dump at the end of Jan (two weeks into Feb for Jed's sales). Here's a plot of the CC volume (note volume is XRP quantity, not $dollars). Now we take the CC volume, compute the weekly average (based on Sunday to Sunday, pacific time), and divide it by 7, and copy the same value for each day of the week so that there are 7 identical values. Now you can see how the sales follow each other slightly better.

To make the picture clearer, let's remove the CC volume data during the time after the SEC lawsuit was filed and Jed temporarily stopped selling, so that we can see the data overlaid better. Now it's not perfect, but it's close-ish. Our volume estimates are too high before Christmas, and too low afterwards. It is possible, that after the SEC shutdown, when Jed resumed sales, he started selling a bit more to make up for the lost couple of weeks, so the figures after the gap of Jed's sales exceed the scaled CC volume by quite a bit. I will of course continue to experiment with day start/end times (pacific/UTC etc) and see if I can iron out the last differences, but overall the shape is close and gives us a rough idea of what's going on. Note that I have clamped the start/end dates of the plot to the current end of Jed's data (yesterday as I write this), so the exchange data which is time shifted by two weeks ends at the same point. The normalization of the exchange data in this plot is based on peak values, and it is clearly not very good, so I'll work on that.

Now let's put back the missing data and see what is likely to happen in the future. In this plot, I replace the missing SEC 2.5 week period and allow the data to cover the full range of CC data - which due to the 2 week time shift, now extends into the future.

Unfortunately, the CC data stops at April 8th, so we can only see next week's prediction of sales volume from Jed and we must wait a bit longer before we can see the second week ahead (eve though today is friday, so we should have almost a whole week's worth of data to estimate from).

The jump in sales is big, very big - so next week (starting Sunday 18th April), we expect Jed's sales to be something like 30m per day. The estimate is a bit ropey as our correlations are not perfect, but somewhere between 25m and 35m per day looks about right. After SEC shutdown ended, Jed was selling a bit more, then gradually, a bit less, so maybe closer to the lower end of the prediction. Let's say 25m per day next week as a first guess. It's a shame the data isn't perfect, but unless Ripple release the volume datasets that they base their releases/sales on, we can't know for sure. (If anyone from ripple wants to contact me with better data, please do). Also, we don't know if Jed's sales algorithm was tweaked after the SEC shutdown to shift some unsold XRP. We are (at best), making educated guesses.

Comments welcome on ways to improve the estimates. I will play with parameters a little to see if I can iron out more of the discrepancies.

 

 

[Triceratops]

@jbjnr

Thank you for your effort. This looks very good, the only thing that could be added would be a prediction algorithm, but in my opinion this is not really needed.
The shifted plots visualize the sales - volume rate excellently and from there one can do a fairly good prediction. In the end it doesn't really matter if he is selling 30m or 35m as long as we can estimate the rough amount.

If we assume that he is selling 30m a day, do you think that this will have an impact on prize? (maybe if the volume goes back a tad bit?)
 

[jbjnr]

18 minutes ago, Triceratops said:

@jbjnr

Thank you for your effort. This looks very good, the only thing that could be added would be a prediction algorithm, but in my opinion this is not really needed.
The shifted plots visualize the sales - volume rate excellently and from there one can do a fairly good prediction. In the end it doesn't really matter if he is selling 30m or 35m as long as we can estimate the rough amount.

If we assume that he is selling 30m a day, do you think that this will have an impact on prize? (maybe if the volume goes back a tad bit?)
 

Well, I must confess, that last year, I used to monitor his sales and when he started selling on a given day when his sales were high, I would sell a chunk when he started, wait an hour or so until the sales completed and then buy back. The days with high sales would sometimes cause a temporary drop that I would benefit from and gain a thousand or so xrp each day. the price usually recovers quite quickly. Now I have a trading bot that can monitor the order books on bitstamp and the DEX and trade the arbitrage between the two, (but I have not allowed it to go live - lots of other bots are doing the same to take advantage of Jeds's sales and I wonder how many xrpcchat readers are running them). 

[Triceratops]

28 minutes ago, jbjnr said:

Well, I must confess, that last year, I used to monitor his sales and when he started selling on a given day when his sales were high, I would sell a chunk when he started, wait an hour or so until the sales completed and then buy back. The days with high sales would sometimes cause a temporary drop that I would benefit from and gain a thousand or so xrp each day. the price usually recovers quite quickly. Now I have a trading bot that can monitor the order books on bitstamp and the DEX and trade the arbitrage between the two, (but I have not allowed it to go live - lots of other bots are doing the same to take advantage of Jeds's sales and I wonder how many xrpcchat readers are running them). 

I did also think about this for some time. I sadly dont have that much time t the moment but my first step would be to plot and analyze data about the sales and how the market is reacting. This can then be combined with the price trend and then one could predict a "good" arbitrage situation. I am sure you and many others are doing something in this direction.
Which language did you use to program your bot, C++, Python or something else? I might give the newly released Python kit a shot.

[JASCoder]

Many thanks jbjnr for sharing your research, observations and theories with us.
It is all quite fascinating, and somewhat reassuring of the resiliency and inelasticity of the global XRP market.

I find it just a tad ironic, that in a way, Jed is providing one useful service to the health of the XRP market...

He's helping grow the depth and breadth of the liquidity of our precious. 
Which, in itself, is an important requirement to effect ODL's eventual success, amirite ?!! 

[BarnBuilder]

5 minutes ago, JASCoder said:

 

He's helping grow the depth and breadth of the liquidity of our precious. 
Which, in itself, is an important requirement to effect ODL's eventual success, amirite ?!! 

Dont think I could have come to that conclusion with every pump and dump at .48 that I watched.  But then I'd read how millions of xrp were transferred and came to realize someone had a plan.  The fact that it didnt drive the price into the .00x range gave me confidence that someone wanted his xrp

[jbjnr]

29 minutes ago, JASCoder said:

I find it just a tad ironic, that in a way, Jed is providing one useful service to the health of the XRP market...

He's helping grow the depth and breadth of the liquidity of our precious. 
Which, in itself, is an important requirement to effect ODL's eventual success, amirite ?!! 

Indeed. Everyone moans about Jed and Chris and Brad "Dumping" their tokens, but next week, Jed will sell ~150m at a price of over a dollar (we hope much more), and whoever buys them isn't going to want to sell them right away at $0.2. I did a back of the envelope check on Brads sales listed in the SEC docs and he sold $150m worth at an average price of $0.45 ( I think that's what I remember) - people who think this somehow caused the price to sink to $0.2 are somewhat deluded. 

R3, SBI, coil and anyone else with billions of them might be dumping hard and trashing the price, but these controlled sales in general don't generally seem to cause a big problem. We will see next week how much of an effect Jed has. Probably none.

Note that the CryptoCompare data isn't complete and I will keep checking for the missing days of volume as it might affect the numbers (8th april falls into the period of two weeks before next week's sales, so my estimate might actually be too low).

NB. Random thought that just occurred to me - I have been assuming Jed's sales are based on xrp volume, but maybe they are based on $$$volume and maybe that's why my charts are out - as the price has risen, recently, it might explain the offsets in the graph. Must check it.

[Neurotoxin]

@jbjnrThank you so much for all the effort and work that you’re putting in for us <3 This thread is gold. More people should visit here regularly. After all, we ALL want Jed to run out of zerps! In an ideal world, he’d run out well before the bullrun is over. 
 

I can’t imagine the effect Jed running out of zerps in a bullmarket with FOMO would have on the price, both from a sell pressure/volume standpoint and a psychological perspective on the market. The zerps would be out there in so many different hands. Many of which would hold and cause more scarcity, if only temporarily. I’m sure the net effect would be pretty profound and positive. 

Edited April 17, 2021 by Neurotoxin
I wanted to add a few thoughts.

[efFofexX]

I noticed over the last few days that Jed seems to be using this new wallet to liquidate his XRP: https://xrpscan.com/account/rwsiRpi2PQmyhjeg48wNGyXPNRtGhgyURJ

It was activated on April 26th. His usual wallet has been pretty quiet ever since and given the amount being liquidated from the new one, it seems clear to me this is his new "daily sell" wallet. I just thought it was curious that he would switch up his routine now after so long.

[jbjnr]

51 minutes ago, efFofexX said:

I noticed over the last few days that Jed seems to be using this new wallet to liquidate his XRP: https://xrpscan.com/account/rwsiRpi2PQmyhjeg48wNGyXPNRtGhgyURJ

It was activated on April 26th. His usual wallet has been pretty quiet ever since and given the amount being liquidated from the new one, it seems clear to me this is his new "daily sell" wallet. I just thought it was curious that he would switch up his routine now after so long.

He has committed to donate some of his funds to charity and stopped selling from the main wallets before, whilst sales from others go ahead - this may be for the same reason, or it might just be to do with some internal accounting of his where certain funds are allocated to some other person/project and summing sales from a new wallet is just easier when the accounts are done some time in the future. (My guess is that he is allocating funds from a certain date onwards to some person/project/charity and it just makes the accounting easier).   

[efFofexX]

1 hour ago, jbjnr said:

He has committed to donate some of his funds to charity and stopped selling from the main wallets before, whilst sales from others go ahead - this may be for the same reason, or it might just be to do with some internal accounting of his where certain funds are allocated to some other person/project and summing sales from a new wallet is just easier when the accounts are done some time in the future. (My guess is that he is allocating funds from a certain date onwards to some person/project/charity and it just makes the accounting easier). 

$100M+ (so far) is a hell of a charitable contribution, but that would explain the sudden change. I wasn't aware of his past donations, and that makes more sense than opening a new personal wallet for no apparent reason. I'll still keep an eye on it out of curiosity.

[Pablo]

On 4/29/2021 at 2:38 PM, efFofexX said:

$100M+ (so far) is a hell of a charitable contribution

It might appear so but Jed is actually the biggest beneficiary as he claims a tax credit on the contributions that cost him nothing. He still gets to pocket about 40% of the $100m.

Another variation of tax "minimisation" which is being exploited right now in the land of the wealthy CEO is to use insider information to game the donation of shares to charities. As reported recently in this paper from a team at Duke Law School:

Quote

We find that large shareholders’ gifts are suspiciously well timed. Stock prices rise abnormally about 6% during the one-year period before the gift date and they fall abnormally by about 4% during the one year after the gift date, meaning that large shareholders tend to find the perfect day on which to give.

These results are almost certainly not the result of luck. To the contrary, our research lets us identify information leakage as the most important cause of these results: executives seem to provide large shareholders with material non-public information, who then use it to time gifts.

We also find a second explanation to be supported, though its magnitude is smaller – backdating. The telltale sign of backdating is that the givers’ extraordinary luck tends to grow alongside the delay they take in reporting the gift. A donor who waits a few weeks to report a gift can cherry pick the very best date to retroactively claim their gift was consummated. That is precisely what we find. The data regarding gifts of stocks from corporate officers and directors taken together with stock gifts of large shareholders suggest enough insider giving for every public company to be subject to it every year.

(https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3795537)

 

[Neurotoxin]

16 hours ago, Pablo said:

It might appear so but Jed is actually the biggest beneficiary as he claims a tax credit on the contributions that cost him nothing. He still gets to pocket about 40% of the $100m.

Another variation of tax "minimisation" which is being exploited right now in the land of the wealthy CEO is to use insider information to game the donation of shares to charities. As reported recently in this paper from a team at Duke Law School:

 

It’s amazing how these already super rich people go on and cheat the system to milk out even more amounts of money that they don’t even need. They do it just because they can. 

[Pablo]

7 hours ago, Neurotoxin said:

It’s amazing how these already super rich people go on and cheat the system to milk out even more amounts of money that they don’t even need. They do it just because they can. 

Here's what's more amazing: as they are taxed at higher rates in the coming years (which, as an old lefty, I completely support), the "game" of donating shares/tokens to charity using otherwise unlawful inside information becomes even more lucrative!

If the SEC is serious about protecting investors, maybe they could stop mucking about and close that loophole? That applies to crypto founders and insiders too, most of whom have been mining that rich seam of tax minimisation for years.

The best ones are those who donate to their own soi-disant "charitable" not-for-profit organisations that they set up themselves and whose main focus actually increases the value of their own holdings.

Edited May 7, 2021 by Pablo