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Jed's XRP sales prediction Feb 7-14 2021


jbjnr
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No sales today from Jed (so far at least). 

Does this mean anything? Other than a bad day at the office and bot failure - is there any other reasonable reason why sales would halt? (charity sales/SEC/agreements). I don't know the wallet address of Jed's charity sales so I'm not monitoring it - if anyone else knows, please share here. Thanks.

Edited by jbjnr
edit : sales have started for today - quite late indeed. So no mysterious political reasons it seems, just a late start
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So this week it is 38million per day - I had predicted 34million per day - but for last week not this one. I must look again at my scripts and see if I somehow screwed up because the big pump happened on the last day of Jan and 1st Feb and now 2 weeks later we should see the fallout from that in the form of the big dump.  I really hope this doesn't screw up the recent price improvements. 38.35m * 7 = 268million xrp this week. That's really a lot for any market to absorb.

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46 minutes ago, jbjnr said:
So this week it is 38million per day - I had predicted 34million per day - but for last week not this one. I must look again at my scripts and see if I somehow screwed up because the big pump happened on the last day of Jan and 1st Feb and now 2 weeks later we should see the fallout from that in the form of the big dump.  I really hope this doesn't screw up the recent price improvements. 38.35m * 7 = 268million xrp this week. That's really a lot for any market to absorb.

It’s trading at around one million a minute according to fiatleak just now.   it’s often much higher.  So four or five hours of world volume across the week.  That’s across the whole world,  but even just the Bitstamp numbers will absorb that in fairly short order.

I know it’s not nothing,  but I don’t think it’s the big thing that many seem to think.

Every buy needs a sell.  These go on ABOVE the order book spread so they are not the horror that everyone seems to fear.  They are liquidity in the market.  Isn’t the old adage that volume begets volume which begets price?

 

Edited by BillyOckham
Fixed my bad mafs
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I'll spare any attempt at maths, but even if Jed sells total less than 1% of total daily volume, the timing and location of those sales play a role, right?  The sales could be, for instance, over a couple of hours of low volume in the day, and they are all concentrated through Bitstamp.  I wonder if those create a kind of multiplying affect in the XRP sales system as a whole.

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Today was a bit special - yesterday, his sales bot set the price slightly high and then didn't lower it all afternoon (malfunction?) and about 16 million was left unsold from the 38. Today another 38m went in and in total 54m was sold during the day. The sales actually finished before the dramatic drop that knocked ~5c off the price, but it seems like most of the trade on bitstamp these days is just Jed's sales. The sheer quantity of cash he's raking in is quite absurd.

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On 2/15/2021 at 8:35 AM, HenrySeldom said:

I still can't believe people even care about this, considering his bag is gonna run out soon. LOL. 

People care, because it is a significant factor impacting people's investment in XRP. A large amount of potential investors are waiting for Ripple and their executives (including Jed formally being a Ripple executive) to stop mass selling XRP on the open market. 

The timing of when Jed's wallet running out could align with positive SEC settlement rulings, crypto bull run, etc.  Ripple and their current executives cannot sell XRP for profits, until the SEC settlement is resolved.  Potentially never being able to sell XRP in certain ways for profits.  If best case scenarios align this year, this has potential to cause a lot of FOMO for new investors to mass buy into XRP.

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3 minutes ago, agonyaunt said:

Based on https://jed.tequ.dev/, no sales was made by Jed... Does this mean anything? Thank you in advance!

Correct - yesterday, no sales. We have no idea why (or at least I don't) - usually the new selling week begins on a Sunday, but there is frequently some 'randomness' as to when things get going and occasionally days are missed (why?).

I suspect he's just tired of taking all our money and wants to have a rest.

02/20/2021 19:46		127,000,000.000000 USD
02/15/2021 05:55		65,000,000.000000 USD
02/09/2021 23:09		50,000,000.000000 USD
02/01/2021 18:17		23,000,000.000000 USD

Since the start of the month he's had to transfer $265 million back to his piggy bank - it must be very tiring for him and no doubt a rest day is worth it once in a while.

/sarcasm off.

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1 minute ago, jbjnr said:

Correct - yesterday, no sales. We have no idea why (or at least I don't) - usually the new selling week begins on a Sunday, but there is frequently some 'randomness' as to when things get going and occasionally days are missed (why?).

I suspect he's just tired of taking all our money and wants to have a rest.


02/20/2021 19:46		127,000,000.000000 USD
02/15/2021 05:55		65,000,000.000000 USD
02/09/2021 23:09		50,000,000.000000 USD
02/01/2021 18:17		23,000,000.000000 USD

Since the start of the month he's had to transfer $265 million back to his piggy bank - it must be very tiring for him and no doubt a rest day is worth it once in a while.

/sarcasm off.

I did't sell yesterday because he knows it's better to sale x2 to day at 0.65

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  • 1 month later...
3 hours ago, Seoulite said:

Any updated calculations on Jed's sales, considering the volume spike?

Quote

for the fourth year of the agreement, Jed and the DAF will be able to collectively sell for each day of the week 1.0 percent of the Average Daily Volume. for any time after the fourth year of the agreement, for each day of the week Jed and the DAF will be able to sell 1.5 percent of the Average Daily Volume.

 

We at Ripple are pleased with the outcome of this agreement. It provides predictability and clarity about distribution of the largest individual holding of XRP in a way that fosters good health and growth in the Ripple ecosystem.

 

*Under the settlement agreement, Average Daily Trading Volume is calculated by dividing the Weekly XRP Trade Volume for the week that commenced two weeks prior to the week at issue by seven (7). Weekly XRP Trade Volume is defined as the total amount of XRP traded on the Ripple consensus ledger during a given week between Sunday midnight Pacific Time through the following Sunday midnight Pacific Time. Significantly, this definition excludes XRP traded on third party exchanges, unless in Ripple's reasonable judgment, the XRP market has changed so that the majority of legitimate XRP transactions have occurred off the Ripple consensus ledger during the prior 365 days.

If you look up the weekly trading volume you will be able to calculate it

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