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Jed's XRP sales prediction Feb 7-14 2021


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31 minutes ago, Spartaksus said:

@jbjnr Only 19 093 375.26 for the next week. Maybe there are some extra conditions preventing selling into significantly lower volume. :dthinking:

Interesting. I don't think there are extra conditions (he sold 28m per week just before the shutdown) - I must have another look at the numbers. I can tweak things like the way I compute the average (change of weekday start, or use a rolling average etc). I wouldn't expect things like that to make a huge difference generally, but it's worth a try - (if the volume data is coming from somewhere unusual, then I might have problems).

 

EDIT: I added the following text to the article
EDIT: 2021-02-07 - jed's wallet received 19,093,375.26 XRP today - so my estimate was quite a long way out. I will look at the numbers again and write a follow up if I come up with a more accurate prediction.

Edited by jbjnr
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It's worth pointing out the difference between ripple's sales and Jed's. I did some extensive research on it in this thread https://www.xrpchat.com/topic/28981-analysis-of-ripples-xrp-sales/ and this

Apologies for taking so long to get around to this. I modified my scripts, but for reasons I could not explain, my graphs just didn't look right. Last night I played some more and found the root of th

https://coil.com/p/jbjnr/Jed-s-XRP-sales-prediction-Feb-7-14-2021/c8TnlyFWA I tidied up my plots and scripts and posted an article to coil on the subject of Jed's sales. TL;DR - I'm estimati

1 hour ago, jbjnr said:

EDIT: 2021-02-07 - jed's wallet received 19,093,375.26 XRP today - so my estimate was quite a long way out. I will look at the numbers again and write a follow up if I come up with a more accurate prediction.

I don't think your calculations are necessarily off. It looks like sales increases are capped at a max of 50%. 

19093375,26/12693308,88*100= 150,4
image.thumb.png.c9d54b59b76661da253d34ffc7d58682.png

Edited by Gepster
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39 minutes ago, Gepster said:

I don't think your calculations are necessarily off. It looks like sales increases are capped at a max of 50%. 

19093375,26/12693308,88*100= 150,4

Must be something else - look at amounts during Flare pump in December.

image.png.5991ce1c57aa9a357ee19e1129b3b623.png

image.png.6930f5474167c9075f7576f7d3ccad8c.png

But regarding current volume - maybe both Jed and his charity fund are currently selling in parallel 50:50. So Jed himself can sell only 50% of expected amount. But I don´t know the address of that charity fund to check it.

 

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4 hours ago, Spartaksus said:

Must be something else - look at amounts during Flare pump in December.

image.png.5991ce1c57aa9a357ee19e1129b3b623.png

image.png.6930f5474167c9075f7576f7d3ccad8c.png

But regarding current volume - maybe both Jed and his charity fund are currently selling in parallel 50:50. So Jed himself can sell only 50% of expected amount. But I don´t know the address of that charity fund to check it.

 

Could indeed be that there's some other factors involved.  Or it's just a coincidence that the increase is 50%

Edited by Gepster
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In case anyone is interested - I can proudly say that my experiment with coil was a resounding success

ILP deposits
	2021-02-07+ 0.026735 XRP
	2021-02-06+ 0.704254 XRP

I received 0.72xrp! = $0.34 (at prices just now - thank goodness they're going up!)

I'll be off now to celebrate with a thimbleful of Ardbeg 10.

Not saying that coil is an abject failure, but this is slightly disheartening.

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1 hour ago, jbjnr said:

In case anyone is interested - I can proudly say that my experiment with coil was a resounding success


ILP deposits
	2021-02-07+ 0.026735 XRP
	2021-02-06+ 0.704254 XRP

I received 0.72xrp! = $0.34 (at prices just now - thank goodness they're going up!)

I'll be off now to celebrate with a thimbleful of Ardbeg 10.

Not saying that coil is an abject failure, but this is slightly disheartening.

I may be framing this incorrectly, but what sort of traffic volume is associated with those payments? (perhaps there's a better measurement?)

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1 hour ago, jbjnr said:

In case anyone is interested - I can proudly say that my experiment with coil was a resounding success





ILP deposits
	2021-02-07+ 0.026735 XRP
	2021-02-06+ 0.704254 XRP

I received 0.72xrp! = $0.34 (at prices just now - thank goodness they're going up!)

I'll be off now to celebrate with a thimbleful of Ardbeg 10.

Not saying that coil is an abject failure, but this is slightly disheartening.

Coil was the second worst idea Stefan Thomas ever had, after not writing down his password to 7k BTC. 

Of course, these startups are an exit play right from inception, and it will be sold for its tech rather than its vision of the Internet, thank God. 

We were arguing about it when it was announced, and my defense of the ad-based model of the Internet didn't prove to be too popular; yet here we are. 

I really appreciate your posts and the work that goes into them. Thank you for sharing with us! 

If you're ever looking to monetize, there are known models that work. Coil is not one of them. 

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1 hour ago, aye-epp said:

I may be framing this incorrectly, but what sort of traffic volume is associated with those payments? (perhaps there's a better measurement?)

I'm afraid I have no idea - all I can see is the ILP payments (they do at least work).

33 minutes ago, jcdenton said:

Coil was the second worst idea Stefan Thomas ever had, after not writing down his password to 7k BTC. 

Of course, these startups are an exit play right from inception, and it will be sold for its tech rather than its vision of the Internet, thank God. 

We were arguing about it when it was announced, and my defense of the ad-based model of the Internet didn't prove to be too popular; yet here we are. 

I really appreciate your posts and the work that goes into them. Thank you for sharing with us! 

If you're ever looking to monetize, there are known models that work. Coil is not one of them. 

Thanks for the thanks - re: coil - I'm very much hoping that we are in phase 1 - and phase 2 will introduce something more pay per view than pay by subscription. 

I'm not looking to monetize - I just wanted to know what a blog type article might bring in for pure curiosity - (clearly I need to do articles about reality TV or something of that kind in order to really experience $$$).  

There's a sad kind of irony to the fact that Stefan has lost 7k BTC. Sort of poetic justice in a cruel and depressing way. Someone who has contributed greatly to the crypto world losing so much. Nothing another billion xrp won't fix! - to paraphrase a previous comment :)

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11 minutes ago, jbjnr said:

I'm afraid I have no idea - all I can see is the ILP payments (they do at least work).

Thanks for the thanks - re: coil - I'm very much hoping that we are in phase 1 - and phase 2 will introduce something more pay per view than pay by subscription. 

I'm not looking to monetize - I just wanted to know what a blog type article might bring in for pure curiosity - (clearly I need to do articles about reality TV or something of that kind in order to really experience $$$).  

There's a sad kind of irony to the fact that Stefan has lost 7k BTC. Sort of poetic justice in a cruel and depressing way. Someone who has contributed greatly to the crypto world losing so much. Nothing another billion xrp won't fix! - to paraphrase a previous comment :)

I'm sure I speak for many here, your efforts are appreciated. I read your post too :)
(and am one of your up-arrows lol) - I paid for a year of coil, and did notice the "pay-rate" ticker on
coil-hosted content was pretty minimal (like while reading Hodor's blog). So your payout shows a fair number
of subscribers did view, plus all the non-subscribers of witch didn't count towards your credit.

I have viewed Coil as an "early public beta," to which you pay a crowdsource fee. It's a working sandbox Proof of Concept,
which has required public participation to help properly field test it.

As to its future, Zeus only knows.

And as for Stefan's password fail, imho it's little different than knowing you could have purchased all you wanted at one cent, but didn't bother. In both cases you didn't care enuf properly secure yourself a long position.

Opportunities lost just plain suck.

Seems a part of life.
Ask any gambler.

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1 hour ago, jcdenton said:

Coil was the second worst idea Stefan Thomas ever had, after not writing down his password to 7k BTC. 

Of course, these startups are an exit play right from inception, and it will be sold for its tech rather than its vision of the Internet, thank God. 

We were arguing about it when it was announced, and my defense of the ad-based model of the Internet didn't prove to be too popular; yet here we are. 

I really appreciate your posts and the work that goes into them. Thank you for sharing with us! 

If you're ever looking to monetize, there are known models that work. Coil is not one of them. 

One of my favorite stupid quotes from Stefan is: https://www.w3.org/blog/2019/09/w3c-interview-coil-on-interledger-protocol-and-web-monetization/

Quote

 

Ian: Could you describe how that layered vision for payments has evolved over the years?

Stefan: My initial hypothesis was based on thinking that the reason payments are expensive and they suck is that there are middlemen, and the middlemen take a large cut or are doing a poor job. That was definitely challenged once I spent more time working with people from Mastercard, Visa, and so on. They are really good at their jobs, and it’s not like I can point at those systems and say, “You’re using an outdated this or that.” These are well-architected, and battle-tested systems. And on the flip side, with Bitcoin, we eliminated middlemen, but as soon as the network started to get popular, the transaction fees went up anyway. We thought the transaction fees are only there because the middlemen are so greedy. But with Bitcoin there are no middlemen, so why would the transaction fees go up?

 

He originally hypothesized payment systems like with Mastercard and Visa are expensive and suck, is because they are middlemen.  Being too oblivious that these companies exist for valid reasons, like they provide security for consumer funds that are sent, received, and stored in their system.  AKA, they don't require the consumer to write down a passcode in order to retain access to a hundreds of millions of dollars.

Kind of poetic irony that he hypothesized financial companies were too expensive and sucked, while these companies actually offered functionality for securing consumer access to funds which BTC did not, which resulted in him losing hundreds of millions of dollars.

Edited by wogojump
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I have to post one more quote from Stefan.  This should summarize expectations for COIL.  He did a AMA on reddit last year, trying to lie about starting programming at age of four. Leading to Reddit calling him out for lying:

Quote

 

socialmeritwarrior

1 year ago

What do you mean when you say you started programming at 4?

 

 

Quote

justmoon

1 year ago

My dad worked for IBM and invested in a personal computer that he actually allowed me to play with. (Thanks, dad!)

On the computer, he had a copy of the game "Hangman" where you have to guess words. Problem was, the game was in English and I didn't speak a word of it. So I tinkered until I figured out how to read the source code and find the word list. Then I started to tinker with the game logic. Can you call that programming? Maybe not, but hey, I was 4. Humble beginnings. ;)

 

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8 hours ago, wogojump said:

I have to post one more quote from Stefan.  This should summarize expectations for COIL.  He did a AMA on reddit last year, trying to lie about starting programming at age of four. Leading to Reddit calling him out for lying:

 

 

Not here to defend Stefan (I hate how they have munted Coil) but I don’t think he is too far off base to say he was hooked on programming from four.  Just what level of skill do you expect from a four year old?

 

I would be impressed if I had a four year old work out how to navigate the file system, find the word list and modify it.  I’m pretty sure that’s beyond many adults.  I’ve been a “programmer” since I was 17 about 45 years ago.  Back then it was simple programmable calculator in RPN or Basic on a Tandy.  But I think what he did qualifies as ‘programming’ especially if you consider the age.

But the point he is making is that all his life he has enjoyed working below the UI level.  Fair enough I reckon.

One thing that seems to always trigger a response from me is someone saying that people are “lying” when in fact they are not.  Dunno why.  But I will crawl back under my rock now.   :) 

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8 hours ago, BillyOckham said:

I would be impressed if I had a four year old work out how to navigate the file system, find the word list and modify it.  I’m pretty sure that’s beyond many adults.  I’ve been a “programmer” since I was 17 about 45 years ago.  Back then it was simple programmable calculator in RPN or Basic on a Tandy.  But I think what he did qualifies as ‘programming’ especially if you consider the age.

I had you muted previously, but was baited in reading this response. This is nonsense.  You are debating that definition of being a programmer is adjusted based on your age? I have never seen age as factor that is used to change the definition of programming: https://www.techopedia.com/definition/13128/programming.  So what is the definition of a programmer when someone is ages 0-3, do they just have to press a button on the keyboard?  What about when someone is 100 years old, do they have have to write code that re-defines humanity or do the requirements actually get looser at a certain age?

 

Stefan admits he didn't understand English at age of 4, but messed with config files and adjusted game logic. Then admits this is probably not programming.  Which he is right on this, this is not considered programming in the IT industry.  What Stefan was doing, even if he did this at age 4, is not programming.  That was messing with configuration files.  Everyone who understands programming, knows he was not changing code and programing at this age.

 

I was changing config files when I was in my young teens.  I know this isn't considered real programming and know not to claim I have been a programmer since I was a young teenager. 

Edited by wogojump
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