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Raoul Pal of Global Macro Investor discusses BTC, ETH and XRP

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23 minutes ago, SquaryBone said:

I've been watching his videos for a while now and really enjoy them. He's a pleasant host, can articulate things in a simple way and has a general good vibe. Pleasure to listen to him. He's generally a bitcoin bull though but I don't mind. He makes a lot of sense.

Agreed. But he's very far from being a BTC maxi - the whole article is arguing against that. He sees a great future for BTC, ETH, XRP (if the SEC case is resolved favourably) and many other coins if they can find widespread adoption.

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Maybe off topic, but not that much:

WSB followers are mostly crypto gamblers and most of them are maxis and banker’s coin haters.

If the victims on the Walls Street have at least 10 brain cells functioning properly, they would buy all XRP from all crypto exchanges and then also call Montgomery St. to purchase all the remaining escrows.

They would single handedly provide a major multi-generation innovation to the financial system, make themselves a leader and a center of a positive change, make most of the remaining crypto (BTC incl.) obsolete or unimportant and also effectively kill the alternative independent markets, so no new GameStop event would happen in the foreseeable future.

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33 minutes ago, PunishmentOfLuxury said:

Agreed. But he's very far from being a BTC maxi - the whole article is arguing against that. He sees a great future for BTC, ETH, XRP (if the SEC case is resolved favourably) and many other coins if they can find widespread adoption.

Well this has been the first video where he seems to have seen the light on other cryptos as well. I'm not saying he rejected the others or spook bad about them but his beliefs went mainly with BTC.

And BTC-bull doesn't mean a maxi :) at least not in my book.

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2 hours ago, PunishmentOfLuxury said:


A long but very interesting article. See p31 for Raoul's background. You can also see many videos by him at the Real Vision channel on YouTube. A clever and very experienced guy.

Crypto valuation is all about Metcalfe's Law, according to him.

On XRP specifically:

And on crypto investing in general:


Judging from the approach in the extracted quotes which are easy to agree with.  Definitely worth a read.  

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This guy sounds like me... dots and all

On 1/29/2021 at 3:59 AM, PunishmentOfLuxury said:

I especially like it because so many participants in the crypto market think everything about it is a scam and refuse to touch
it. That makes me interested. When everyone hates something there is often a good risk reward if they
are wrong...

The amazing thing is that this will be soon answered by the courts, for once and for all.

However I guess I should come to terms with my being a BTC minimalist. I've thought it was over valued since it was $20. I see no fundamental economic value, because there is none.

I'd like to address this "digital gold" bullshit SMH.

Folks here should be accustomed to looking at how fiat pairs are represented.. A:B or B:A, with the second number being the denominator. 

Since it's only a matter of perspective which you prefer as the denominator, you have to conclude that what all parties care about is the Ratio between A & B

In Math Problem words the words "Digital Gold" are conveying 

1. BTC will gain value relative to USD, even if USD stays the same value 

2. USD will lose value relative to BTC, even if BTC stays the same value.

If one only considers the nature of the difference in Supply and the management of each currency's Supply. Then this makes sense. We have seen trillions of USD printed in the last year, and zero BTC added to ultimate Supply.

If one considers that angle of valuation to be just one, and potentially not the valuation method which will be the prevailing method longterm, then that's where one starts to consider other economic valuation methods.

So, other than the ratio between A & B moving in your desired direction, "what can I do with this BTC"? The answer is... other than talk about it, nothing. 

The only desirable thing you can do with a BTC is sell it to someone else for more fiat. So keeping ourselves honest, the driving force for BTC is a desire for more Fiat.

I see the fate for BTC mirroring the value of millions of folks lost hope that they will regain their lost capital. I expect (I'm not saying when) one of the most significant single asset crashes ever, the likes of Lehman Brothers. I also believe there is a non-zero probability that is the trigger for another cascade of systemic level risk flowing out through the financial system. It will be a blood bath, fortunes will vanish, suicides will occur.

Then there's XRP backed by the Utility Value of moving value around an interconnected network of financial institutions and Central Banks, that's rapidly growing.

It's not a tough choice :drinks:

Edited by KarmaCoverage
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52 minutes ago, NightJanitor said:

Rather clever marketing, largely led by Grayscale, though, going after the goldbugs/numismatists by positioning BTC as a "store of value" + "inflation hedge."

Perhaps we, in turn, shall target...  the philatelists! :)

Listen starting at minute 5, or cut to the chase at minute 6:45.

I'm pretty sure I was the first one to use the postage stamp analogy, while posting on the old official forum as FinSin (I knew FinCEN would get involved, they did). The analogy went on to describe a wallet as a Mail box, and Rippled as a Mail Man, and maybe the UNL/Pathfinding as the Mail Sorting machine.

I cant get into that user anymore though. Not even sure if there is an "official forum" anymore either. 

Edited by KarmaCoverage
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  • 4 months later...

Do you really think that BTC is going to cost more in a short time? I am using crypto signals when investing, and I haven't got any information about the rise of BTC. However, several new cryptocurrencies are valuable. For example, I want to invest in DogeCoin. A lot of people say that it hasn't any perspectives, but this is not true. I am investing in it already for six months small sums of money, and I am already made twice as I invested. I will invest even more and see what will happen because there aren't any crypto alarms on this crypto.

Edited by zoeillin
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6 hours ago, zoeillin said:

Is BTC coming back?

Unfortunately Ponzi schemes dont die off till they run out of greater fools. My observation is that Wallstreet hasn't "gotten their lick" yet.

They always get their lick from Retail investors, who are the greatest rube. The Retail distribution cycle hasn't begun yet. BTC wont peak till the Rube's money is taken by Wallstreet selling their BTC inventory through retail distribution channels.

It would be best to avoid this happening, SMH, but I fear it wont be avoided. This last retail Rube phase has the potential to set up a trading opportunity the likes of The Big Short.

Buffett stole my strategy, "show me where I can buy Puts on BTC, and I'll be interested". It's not going to be a good thing, it wont end well, there will be suicides, and unfortunately I mean this genuinely.

I hope I'm dead wrong!!!

Edited by KarmaCoverage
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