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Who is buying Jed's XRP on XRPL?


tulo
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1 hour ago, BillyOckham said:

I think if he accumulated the sold coins from Ripple via the process of rebuying after Bitstamp then I honestly think he could cripple us in an ongoing fashion.  But from all your other posts I think you probably know more about markets than I do so perhaps you are correct and I am wrong about the “ongoing” part.

In any case thanks for the discussion and it was nice to talk to you.

Well, let's hope we don't have to find out who is right.:good:

Edited by DeBaron
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9 hours ago, BillyOckham said:

If he really was wanting to do us harm it’s unlikely he would push to that extent.  The most effective undermining of our market would be to crash it down 20% repeatedly while shorting it.  Let it build up 15% again then rinse repeat.  The lower lows and lower highs would signal a very bad situation especially if it was never ever pierced by a solid rise because he could essentially do that forever if he wanted.  He could block any rise every single time by applying enough dump.  And every dump refuels him with shorting profits.

 

8 hours ago, DeBaron said:

This is theoretically possible, but it will never work in the real world.

I don‘t know ... just take a look at the XRP chart :lol:

There are certainly strange things going on behind the scenes.

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12 hours ago, Caracappa said:

So Jed is buying Jeds XRP to build a stash to one day crash the market. 

I like that theory. And explains why the market doesnt take a dent everytime he sells as it cancels eachother out. 

There we go again with the theories :p Why try to keep holding XRP if he believes it goes down and so his own holdings become worth less? You've got to be an idiot to choose this option if the other one is consistently selling all the XRP you have and at worst be a serious multi-millionaire (and I'm not talking about 5 million $, more like 100s of millions). So either he chooses to be a little child and destroying his own wealth or he gets an automatic income of millions of $. What would you choose?

You could say he makes that money with the shorts but he has risk there as well. Why take risks (both financially and legally) if he gets CONTINOUSLY FREE MONEY.

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4 minutes ago, SquaryBone said:

Why take risks (both financially and legally) if he gets CONTINOUSLY FREE MONEY.

Also keep in mind that Bitstamp would need to collaborate in that game. Bitstamp, the exchange that halted trading XRP for its US customers, apparently with exceptions.

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10 minutes ago, SquaryBone said:

There we go again with the theories :p Why try to keep holding XRP if he believes it goes down and so his own holdings become worth less? You've got to be an idiot to choose this option if the other one is consistently selling all the XRP you have and at worst be a serious multi-millionaire (and I'm not talking about 5 million $, more like 100s of millions). So either he chooses to be a little child and destroying his own wealth or he gets an automatic income of millions of $. What would you choose?

You could say he makes that money with the shorts but he has risk there as well. Why take risks (both financially and legally) if he gets CONTINOUSLY FREE MONEY.

There we go again with all the seriousness. Relax man, no I don't think Jed is part of some conspiracy to get XRP to $ 0,00589. He is just selling his stash as the agreement describes. Tbh, I'm not even sure he could keep his XRP even if he wanted to suddenly.


I do however think DS is Satoshi and he will unleash the dormant 1mln BTC wallet soon and convert them to XRP to get the price up to $ 589...

 

(ps. No I don't)

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37 minutes ago, lucky said:

Bitstamp, the exchange that halted trading XRP for its US customers, apparently with exceptions.

oooo forgot about that one, so, then for USA customers they are NOT allowed to even trade in their USD IOU's on Bitstamp?

Maybe the account for Wendluck has a different country of residence......Also did you note the name of one of the activated accounts created from Wendluck?   Typo....:rofl:

360d81a70d44759edcc2cf4ab6e249b5.png

Edited by pucksterpete
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  • 2 weeks later...

I did a quick cross-correlation of Jed's sales with exchange volume to verify that the algorithm is still working as I believe it to be.

Based on the trade volumes at the End-of-Jan/Start-of-Feb - we can expect an unprecedented level of sales from Jed starting the week after next. By unprecedented, I mean total sales close to half a billion xrp over a week!

I must double check my numbers and clean up the plots - I will post the figures once I'm certain of my calculations as I've not used these scripts for a year and they needed some tweaks to make them work again (such as changes in the way I get data from coinmarketcap etc and some of the correlation and sampling params).

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15 minutes ago, jbjnr said:

I did a quick cross-correlation of Jed's sales with exchange volume to verify that the algorithm is still working as I believe it to be.

Based on the trade volumes at the End-of-Jan/Start-of-Feb - we can expect an unprecedented level of sales from Jed starting the week after next. By unprecedented, I mean total sales close to half a billion xrp over a week!

I must double check my numbers and clean up the plots - I will post the figures once I'm certain of my calculations as I've not used these scripts for a year and they needed some tweaks to make them work again (such as changes in the way I get data from coinmarketcap etc and some of the correlation and sampling params).

Thanks for doing this. But is Ripple still using CMC for volume calculation - I thought they'd finally realised that it's massively inflated by fake volume at small exchanges?

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14 minutes ago, PunishmentOfLuxury said:

Thanks for doing this. But is Ripple still using CMC for volume calculation - I thought they'd finally realised that it's massively inflated by fake volume at small exchanges?

They use "CryptoCompare TopTier volumes" for their calculations, and that is one reason I need to update my scripts - when I originally correlated ripple sales volumes, they were much larger than expected and they subsequently reduced them when they adjusted to only use "reputable" exchanges. I was using cryptocompare (free version) to get data originally, but switched too coinmaketcap and then got a more reasonable sales figure (as they were using inflated figures it seems - and later admitted).

However, The basic algorithm I'm using is to correlate Jed's previous known sales with exchange volume data - compute the correlation offset and scale multiplier - if the exchange volume is multiplied by ten, then the correlation scale just reduces by ten - so as long as the exchange volume I get is basically the same as the cryptocompare volume (which I will get too), then the algorithm is ok - as long as inflated sales are inflated proportionally to the real sales data (ie some constant multiplier - which is a big assumption, but broadly ok it seems).. Once I know the offset and scale - then take last week's exchange data and predict the next set of Jed sales.

I will probably run the calculations again - just using bitstamp volume alone - because I trust them to have good data - that will produce a prediction based only on their data, if I get numbers that are broadly similar for my predictions, then I'm happy.

 

Edited by jbjnr
edit : I'll post my analysis when I'm done (weekend probably as I have work to do) - you can then assess my findings with a more reliable set of numbers to look at
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1 hour ago, jbjnr said:

They use "CryptoCompare TopTier volumes" for their calculations, and that is one reason I need to update my scripts - when I originally correlated ripple sales volumes, they were much larger than expected and they subsequently reduced them when they adjusted to only use "reputable" exchanges. I was using cryptocompare (free version) to get data originally, but switched too coinmaketcap and then got a more reasonable sales figure (as they were using inflated figures it seems - and later admitted).

However, The basic algorithm I'm using is to correlate Jed's previous known sales with exchange volume data - compute the correlation offset and scale multiplier - if the exchange volume is multiplied by ten, then the correlation scale just reduces by ten - so as long as the exchange volume I get is basically the same as the cryptocompare volume (which I will get too), then the algorithm is ok - as long as inflated sales are inflated proportionally to the real sales data (ie some constant multiplier - which is a big assumption, but broadly ok it seems).. Once I know the offset and scale - then take last week's exchange data and predict the next set of Jed sales.

I will probably run the calculations again - just using bitstamp volume alone - because I trust them to have good data - that will produce a prediction based only on their data, if I get numbers that are broadly similar for my predictions, then I'm happy.

 

I was thinking about this the other day...  I’d never looked deeply into it...    just took what I read online from known good sources (like you :) ) so my understanding might be wrong.

But,  as I understand it,  he sells on the DeX then transfers Bitstamp:USD to Bitstamp redeems it then has the USD.  I believe his bot always puts it fractionally up the DEX order book so it should actually contribute only to a rising price on the DEX.

But then I’ve also read that at 11am on Bitstamp there is always a sudden drop corresponding to a volume amount matching the Jed sale.  Now that I think about it that doesn’t make sense since the sale was already done on the DEX.

Am I wrong about any of that?  What explains the repeated drop on Bitstamp?

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25 minutes ago, BillyOckham said:

I was thinking about this the other day...  I’d never looked deeply into it...    just took what I read online from known good sources (like you :) ) so my understanding might be wrong.

But,  as I understand it,  he sells on the DeX then transfers Bitstamp:USD to Bitstamp redeems it then has the USD.  I believe his bot always puts it fractionally up the DEX order book so it should actually contribute only to a rising price on the DEX.

But then I’ve also read that at 11am on Bitstamp there is always a sudden drop corresponding to a volume amount matching the Jed sale.  Now that I think about it that doesn’t make sense since the sale was already done on the DEX.

Am I wrong about any of that?  What explains the repeated drop on Bitstamp?

He puts sell offers on the dex, when the arbitrage between dex and bitstamp is profitable, the bots buy on dex and sell on bitstamp. No problem there. There is no direct downward price pressure. However, if the price on bitstamp drops due to natural fluctuations, he has to lower his price a little. This process repeats. Still no direct pressure on downward prices - but when demand drops and prices drop, he has a good supply which can help stop prices rising back up for a while. A large part of the daily trading on all the exchanges is bots, and they buy and sell constantly, looking for small differences and riding pumps, and selling on stop losses. (Note that Jed's sales increase the volume for several candles, and this can in turn trigger other bots to change their sell/buy patterns - this is a chaotic system and unpredictable for the most part).

If nobody wants to sell at price X, but lots of people want to buy and are willing to pay x+delta - this usually forces the price up until people are willing to sell again. If someone comes along with tens or hundreds of millions and is prepared to sell at any price (+delta), then this can suppress the rise.

For this reason, I don't ultimately have a problem with ripple's programmatic sales in the past and founders selling, as long as it is done slowly and with a drip feed. However, the algorithm uses quantities based on the exchange volume from several days ago - a massive pump like we saw a week ago will result in massive sales in a week's time - when total volume might be much much lower. I would prefer to see Jed's sales bot operate on volume from hours ago, rather than weeks ago.

I see half a billion being released onto comparatively low volume and it may well cause a decline - not a dump - but a decline.

Edited by jbjnr
edit: typo
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well... I guess the good new is that if the maths are correct then the volume has been huge and should theoretically absorb any "dump" placed out there...

but I do 2nd guess the maths... I mean, is it not about 1% of the volume?  Was the volume 50 billion for the qualified period of time? 

To be fair, I question my ability to question.

 

 

Edited by EcneitapLatnem
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2 hours ago, jbjnr said:

They use "CryptoCompare TopTier volumes" for their calculations, and that is one reason I need to update my scripts - when I originally correlated ripple sales volumes, they were much larger than expected and they subsequently reduced them when they adjusted to only use "reputable" exchanges. I was using cryptocompare (free version) to get data originally, but switched too coinmaketcap and then got a more reasonable sales figure (as they were using inflated figures it seems - and later admitted).

Isn't only the volume on XRPL used to calculate the value he can sell?

 

26 minutes ago, jbjnr said:

the bots buy on dex and sell on bitstamp. No problem there. There is no direct downward price pressure.

There is not on XRPL but there is for sure on Bitstamp IF he's selling there.

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