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Why you should not sell XRP and you should ABSOLUTELY not buy BTC


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On 1/18/2021 at 9:50 AM, HenrySeldom said:

I 100% agree. This may be controversial, but a big part of me thinks that alt-season in general may not really get going until XRP's status is resolved... 

Alt season has definately started. Alts are dependent on BTC not XRP. No other coin besides XRP itself is dependent on XRP.

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Hello all, it's been a while since I've been around here. Still holding, though I have diversified a little of my holdings away from XRP. Wanted to share some thoughts on prices. Everything I say here

I like your post, and mostly agree. But the opportunity cost for XRP in the last 3 years has gone from bad to worse. I had put too much faith in the team of Ripple, only to be screwed over by Brad and

thats a lot of hopium you smoking right there sir, i can see it in the smoke pipe in your avatar

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On 1/30/2021 at 6:14 PM, Seoulite said:

Why it’s a bad idea to sell at the bottom, Exhibit A:

2MtNwVxp

You don't sell out of crypto entirely, you trade XRP out for another crypto and you are better off. Just about any crypto would have worked.

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2 hours ago, Gamblord said:

I sold the bottom on more than a month ago xrp and went into ADA, ETH, XMR. My portfolio is way better off, almost triple XRP's current valuation. 

Did you miss the part of my original post where I talked about diversification?

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I dunno who titled this thead - and God knows I didn't read any of it - but I used to see headlines like this on Seventeen Magazine in the checkout line at the grocery.

Why You Should Totally Hold Onto Your Scrunchies and Absolutely Like Never Ever Wear Braids

I can only assume that the quality of the content is about the same.  (But I guess I'll never know.)

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2 hours ago, Archbob said:

You don't sell out of crypto entirely, you trade XRP out for another crypto and you are better off. Just about any crypto would have worked.

The point was the risk reward is not great. If you have good timing and a bit luck you might do well. Personally I put any new money into other things, and I only started selling some xrp around 45. 
In short, it might be looking like bad advice right now ( when it didn’t look like that last week). Next week it might look like good advice again.

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On 1/16/2021 at 2:45 AM, Seoulite said:

Hello all, it's been a while since I've been around here. Still holding, though I have diversified a little of my holdings away from XRP. Wanted to share some thoughts on prices. Everything I say here will be founded on the age-old principle: Buy low, sell high.

1. Will XRP outperform BTC?

Eventually yes. XRP/BTC is about as close to zero as you can get without being zero. Having said that, it could still drop 50% from here, and 50% from that. However if you look at the highs and lows, we are at the low. This is an absolutely terrible time to exchange XRP for BTC. In the last few years there hasn't been a worse time. If you are holding, it makes sense to continue holding here. Could we go lower? Absolutely. But there is far more room to the upside. Again if you look at XRPUSD, we are near the bottom. You don't sell near the bottom unless you need the money to pay your bills, in which case it was a bad idea to invest that in crypto.

2. Will XRP be a higher price at some point in the future?

Almost certainly yes. Again, because we are at the low. Markets go up and go down. Utility aside, xrp offers smart money a way to pump and dump at the very least. At some point that will almost certainly happen. No, I'm not saying 100%. But if you look at the factors: the technology is still the same, smart contracts have been added with flare, once the SEC case is finished (it will be finished at some point, we can say that with 100% certainty) it is very likely that the xrp token will be clearly something - if it is not a security the FOMO will be unreal. I'm not even sure it can be a security, but if it is I still think it will take off like a rocket (maybe not so big) simply because of where the market is.

That said, the market can still take off like a rocket even while the SEC is going on. Look at the spike we saw to 37 cents. Someone is buying that, and since we can safely assume retail traders aren't rushing in to buy the SEC shit coin, it must be someone else with deep pockets. Those people haven't stopped wanting to make money from XRP.

3. Should I buy BTC?

No. No. No. When people are telling you to buy BTC on twitter, you know it's a bad time to buy. Greedy, fearful, etc etc. Buy low, sell high. You don't buy something at the ATH. That's the definition of a bad time to buy. I saw someone on twitter say your net worth should be 50% in ETH and BTC. Yeah, maybe a year ago or 5 years ago! (Again, we must remember hindsight bias here: the cognitive bias that after an event occurs, it seems obvious that that event was going to occur, when in fact at the time - e.g. when BTC was back at 3k - it wasn't obvious at all.) This person also said 'there may never be a better time to buy'. The assumption here is that it will continue to go up. A pretty bold assumption. I know XRP can only go to zero. It can't go below that. There's a whole lot of space between BTC and zero. Can it go there? Sure, why not. Will it? Probably not. But that still doesn't make it a good buy from here. Buying here means you are buying at a massive premium. Virtually everyone who bought BTC in the last week is in the red now, wondering why they put their $200 (now $150 and falling) into this crypto nonsense.

4. Should I diversify?

If you must diversify, do it into coins that are low. I diversified into an alt near the bottom and am currently up about 75% on my investment. I have also bought more flare (thank you poloniex) because I think it is near the bottom. Some of you will say it could go to 1 cent. Sure, I will buy more there. You know how close 1 cent is to zero? People are currently paying 17 cents for this stuff on bitrue. We are talking about the biggest airdrop in the history of crypto, supported by every major exchange on the planet. A project that is incorporating XRP and LTC, and will almost certainly incorporate BTC at some point in the future. 

I'm making the fundamental argument here but really that just supports my price argument. It is lowwwwwww. Buy low, sell high. 

5. Should I be sad?

Sure. We have been unlucky. As someone said in another thread, without the SEC XRP would probably be well over a dollar by now, and we would all be laughing. That can still happen. But you have to assume some things or the world just doesn't make sense: so we can confidently say that: the people at Ripple don't want to go out of business, therefore they will try to get this done as quickly and painlessly (for themselves) as possible. This SEC stuff will blow over. Without Flare and the airdrop I would be way, way more sad. But Flare is exciting, plus it's free money. BTC is getting the glory right now but it is entirely possible that it went to 20k and then started dropping again. That could've easily happened. It can still drop from here (because it is at the top!). So I guess what I'm trying to say is don't kick yourself for not knowing the future and don't be too sad. Diversify if you must, but for goodness sake don't buy stuff at the ATH. If you'd bought BTC at 20k, I would've said it was a bad idea. Congrats, now you would be 100% up, in the meantime any other investment in a big alt (apart from xrp of course) would've given you a better return. Anyone who bought BTC at 20k got kinda lucky, but the risk was far too high, just as it is now. 

6. Am I going to buy more XRP?

Probably not unless the price drops back in the 15-10 cent range. Then it will be an absolute bargain. If it went below 10 I would buy more. Why? Because it's at the bottom. It's not going to zero and staying there. Flare has made sure of that. But at this price I'm not buying more.

 

So in conclusion, it sucks to be at the bottom, for sure. But after being at the bottom comes the upside. We saw that before the SEC. Remember when we went to 10 cents and then it touched 90 cents on coinbase? That can happen again. I am fairly certain it will at some point in the future, we just might have to wait a while for it.

Cheers all. 

***Not investment advice. This post is for entertainment purposes only***

 

 

I'm sorry but this is the biggest load of nonsense I have come across. You're using unit bias as a core of your argument 'buy low and sell high' when you don't realise that buying trash low will only ever stay as trash going forward, and you're hoping to dump a stack on some hopeless idiot who has not done his research and buys a junk 'assett' like XRP at a high price. What you're engaging in as hinted by the bottom of your article is pure speculation to try and make money, which is extremely lazy and again relies on price pumping not based on any fundamental use case, rather it is hoping for a broader market pump. Unit bias is very real here, if XRP was $10 you'd be on another forum touting something sub $1 as a better investment without looking at any of its fundamentals. 

 

With regards to Bitcoin, it has an annualised return of circa 200% year on year, it is up 500% in the last year, has 15x'd since March 2020. Since your post on 16th January BTC has risen from ~$37 to $57k. If you even bothered to do an ounce of research in this space you would see that Bitcoin is the fastest horse in the race, and everything is down when you use Bitcoin as the standard instead of the USD. The world is getting cheaper year on year for those who own BTC, while people like you are on here irresponsibly telling people to hold on to a complete shitcoin with absolutely no hope of ever serving any use case other than making your chiefs Garlinghouse and Larsen richer.

In an environment where true monetary inflation is circa 15%, you can sit here and wait another 3 years for xrp to maybe hit 90 cents on pure speculation, while what you earn from whatever day job you have loses 50% of its purchasing power. Meanwhile those who have an ounce of common sense will be buying Bitcoin as a store of value to see their purchasing power continue to appreciate at a rapid rate.

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Oh man this is gonna be fun.

2 minutes ago, Fahimth14 said:

Unit bias is very real here, if XRP was $10 you'd be on another forum touting something sub $1 as a better investment without looking at any of its fundamentals.

You clearly didn't read what I wrote, as a number of your basic assumptions about me and what I'm saying are hilariously and obviously wrong.

I am talking about price action, the historical range that we are on the chart. I couldn't care less what the unit price of something is. I care about risk/return. And wait, you are coming to an xrp forum and hyping BTC while talking about fundamentals? Oh sweet summer child...

9 minutes ago, Fahimth14 said:

With regards to Bitcoin, it has an annualised return of circa 200% year on year, it is up 500% in the last year, has 15x'd since March 2020.

2x a year you say? 500% this year? Wowzer, impressive big numbers. My ADA is currently at 25x and we aren't at the all time high yet. The Avalanche I bought is up 6x in the last 6 weeks. Touting returns like BTC is the only asset that gives them is not going to work.

11 minutes ago, Fahimth14 said:

If you even bothered to do an ounce of research in this space you would see that Bitcoin is the fastest horse in the race,

Hoo boy you even used the words 'fastest horse'. Let's have a look at the old chart, shall we? Oh, I see the average BTC transaction fee is a mere $25.97. You mean to tell me I can send ten bucks to my friend and it will only take several hours and cost me 25 bucks??? iTs LiKe I'm LiViNg In ThE fUtUrE!

15 minutes ago, Fahimth14 said:

Meanwhile those who have an ounce of common sense will be buying Bitcoin as a store of value

Ah, there it is. Satoshi's vision. What he wanted was to build a store of value for billionaires and wall street hedge funds and the 'institutional investors'. 

My portfolio is doing just fine, thanks. You go ahead and buy your 50k BTC from Elon Musk. The ride will be over soon. We won't hear from you then, I'm sure, but I will keep you in my thoughts. 

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2 minutes ago, Seoulite said:

Oh man this is gonna be fun.

You clearly didn't read what I wrote, as a number of your basic assumptions about me and what I'm saying are hilariously and obviously wrong.

I am talking about price action, the historical range that we are on the chart. I couldn't care less what the unit price of something is. I care about risk/return. And wait, you are coming to an xrp forum and hyping BTC while talking about fundamentals? Oh sweet summer child...

2x a year you say? 500% this year? Wowzer, impressive big numbers. My ADA is currently at 25x and we aren't at the all time high yet. The Avalanche I bought is up 6x in the last 6 weeks. Touting returns like BTC is the only asset that gives them is not going to work.

Hoo boy you even used the words 'fastest horse'. Let's have a look at the old chart, shall we? Oh, I see the average BTC transaction fee is a mere $25.97. You mean to tell me I can send ten bucks to my friend and it will only take several hours and cost me 25 bucks??? iTs LiKe I'm LiViNg In ThE fUtUrE!

Ah, there it is. Satoshi's vision. What he wanted was to build a store of value for billionaires and wall street hedge funds and the 'institutional investors'. 

My portfolio is doing just fine, thanks. You go ahead and buy your 50k BTC from Elon Musk. The ride will be over soon. We won't hear from you then, I'm sure, but I will keep you in my thoughts. 

Have fun staying poor 🙂

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2 minutes ago, Fahimth14 said:

Have fun staying poor 🙂

In the end that is all BTC maxis have to hang their hat on: the price. The big number. The RR is worse than other coins, but because the number is not so big, it doesn't seem to matter. And you accuse me of unit bias. 

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1 minute ago, Seoulite said:

That's funny, you made 100x but are getting all hot and bothered about 2x? 

I'm bothered about people shilling shitcoins when the narrative is quite clearly that Bitcoin is the winner. 100xing Cardano was great but putting that 100x into BTC was even better. 

All jokes and banter aside, I do get your points. Completely. I was where you were 4 years ago in terms of the way you think with regards to price action. But when it comes to Bitcoin, I think not owning any is irresponsible. I come back at this forum from time to time as everyone here was super helpful in my early days. Equally I call out bad opinions when I see them.

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8 minutes ago, Seoulite said:

In the end that is all BTC maxis have to hang their hat on: the price. The big number. The RR is worse than other coins, but because the number is not so big, it doesn't seem to matter. And you accuse me of unit bias.

If I had xrp right now from an avg purchase price of $0.12 vs btc at an avg purchase price of $5k. You do the maths on my personal RR. That's all that matters. 

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