Jump to content

Why you should not sell XRP and you should ABSOLUTELY not buy BTC


Recommended Posts

On 1/16/2021 at 3:45 AM, Seoulite said:

Hello all, it's been a while since I've been around here. Still holding, though I have diversified a little of my holdings away from XRP. Wanted to share some thoughts on prices. Everything I say here will be founded on the age-old principle: Buy low, sell high.

1. Will XRP outperform BTC?

Eventually yes. XRP/BTC is about as close to zero as you can get without being zero. Having said that, it could still drop 50% from here, and 50% from that. However if you look at the highs and lows, we are at the low. This is an absolutely terrible time to exchange XRP for BTC. In the last few years there hasn't been a worse time. If you are holding, it makes sense to continue holding here. Could we go lower? Absolutely. But there is far more room to the upside. Again if you look at XRPUSD, we are near the bottom. You don't sell near the bottom unless you need the money to pay your bills, in which case it was a bad idea to invest that in crypto.

2. Will XRP be a higher price at some point in the future?

Almost certainly yes. Again, because we are at the low. Markets go up and go down. Utility aside, xrp offers smart money a way to pump and dump at the very least. At some point that will almost certainly happen. No, I'm not saying 100%. But if you look at the factors: the technology is still the same, smart contracts have been added with flare, once the SEC case is finished (it will be finished at some point, we can say that with 100% certainty) it is very likely that the xrp token will be clearly something - if it is not a security the FOMO will be unreal. I'm not even sure it can be a security, but if it is I still think it will take off like a rocket (maybe not so big) simply because of where the market is.

That said, the market can still take off like a rocket even while the SEC is going on. Look at the spike we saw to 37 cents. Someone is buying that, and since we can safely assume retail traders aren't rushing in to buy the SEC shit coin, it must be someone else with deep pockets. Those people haven't stopped wanting to make money from XRP.

3. Should I buy BTC?

No. No. No. When people are telling you to buy BTC on twitter, you know it's a bad time to buy. Greedy, fearful, etc etc. Buy low, sell high. You don't buy something at the ATH. That's the definition of a bad time to buy. I saw someone on twitter say your net worth should be 50% in ETH and BTC. Yeah, maybe a year ago or 5 years ago! (Again, we must remember hindsight bias here: the cognitive bias that after an event occurs, it seems obvious that that event was going to occur, when in fact at the time - e.g. when BTC was back at 3k - it wasn't obvious at all.) This person also said 'there may never be a better time to buy'. The assumption here is that it will continue to go up. A pretty bold assumption. I know XRP can only go to zero. It can't go below that. There's a whole lot of space between BTC and zero. Can it go there? Sure, why not. Will it? Probably not. But that still doesn't make it a good buy from here. Buying here means you are buying at a massive premium. Virtually everyone who bought BTC in the last week is in the red now, wondering why they put their $200 (now $150 and falling) into this crypto nonsense.

4. Should I diversify?

If you must diversify, do it into coins that are low. I diversified into an alt near the bottom and am currently up about 75% on my investment. I have also bought more flare (thank you poloniex) because I think it is near the bottom. Some of you will say it could go to 1 cent. Sure, I will buy more there. You know how close 1 cent is to zero? People are currently paying 17 cents for this stuff on bitrue. We are talking about the biggest airdrop in the history of crypto, supported by every major exchange on the planet. A project that is incorporating XRP and LTC, and will almost certainly incorporate BTC at some point in the future. 

I'm making the fundamental argument here but really that just supports my price argument. It is lowwwwwww. Buy low, sell high. 

5. Should I be sad?

Sure. We have been unlucky. As someone said in another thread, without the SEC XRP would probably be well over a dollar by now, and we would all be laughing. That can still happen. But you have to assume some things or the world just doesn't make sense: so we can confidently say that: the people at Ripple don't want to go out of business, therefore they will try to get this done as quickly and painlessly (for themselves) as possible. This SEC stuff will blow over. Without Flare and the airdrop I would be way, way more sad. But Flare is exciting, plus it's free money. BTC is getting the glory right now but it is entirely possible that it went to 20k and then started dropping again. That could've easily happened. It can still drop from here (because it is at the top!). So I guess what I'm trying to say is don't kick yourself for not knowing the future and don't be too sad. Diversify if you must, but for goodness sake don't buy stuff at the ATH. If you'd bought BTC at 20k, I would've said it was a bad idea. Congrats, now you would be 100% up, in the meantime any other investment in a big alt (apart from xrp of course) would've given you a better return. Anyone who bought BTC at 20k got kinda lucky, but the risk was far too high, just as it is now. 

6. Am I going to buy more XRP?

Probably not unless the price drops back in the 15-10 cent range. Then it will be an absolute bargain. If it went below 10 I would buy more. Why? Because it's at the bottom. It's not going to zero and staying there. Flare has made sure of that. But at this price I'm not buying more.

 

So in conclusion, it sucks to be at the bottom, for sure. But after being at the bottom comes the upside. We saw that before the SEC. Remember when we went to 10 cents and then it touched 90 cents on coinbase? That can happen again. I am fairly certain it will at some point in the future, we just might have to wait a while for it.

Cheers all. 

***Not investment advice. This post is for entertainment purposes only***

 

 

I don't understand these posts trying to convince others to not sell. Real reason why this user doesn't want others to sell: he/she has heavy bags and wants to sell them at a higher price. Period. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 139
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Hello all, it's been a while since I've been around here. Still holding, though I have diversified a little of my holdings away from XRP. Wanted to share some thoughts on prices. Everything I say here

I like your post, and mostly agree. But the opportunity cost for XRP in the last 3 years has gone from bad to worse. I had put too much faith in the team of Ripple, only to be screwed over by Brad and

thats a lot of hopium you smoking right there sir, i can see it in the smoke pipe in your avatar

14 minutes ago, XRPage said:

I don't understand these posts trying to convince others to not sell. Real reason why this user doesn't want others to sell: he/she has heavy bags and wants to sell them at a higher price. Period. 

Honestly, it's a little tougher to understand those posts trying to convince others to sell low. 

Most people on this forum and most investors in general follow 2 basic rules. 1. don't invest more than you can afford to lose. 2. buy low, sell high. 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, RipMcGillicuddy said:

Honestly, it's a little tougher to understand those posts trying to convince others to sell low. 

Most people on this forum and most investors in general follow 2 basic rules. 1. don't invest more than you can afford to lose. 2. buy low, sell high. 

 

i'm actually not sure anybody here follows rule 2, most people trying to figure out wtf to do have been holding these bags since not selling the top in 2018 and adding to their position along the way

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, XRPage said:

I don't understand these posts trying to convince others to not sell. Real reason why this user doesn't want others to sell: he/she has heavy bags and wants to sell them at a higher price. Period. 

Yawn. Yes, I am trying my hardest to move a billion dollar market by making one lightly worded post on one internet forum. You think it will work? I mean I did get an A in high school English for my persuasive writing essay...

Link to post
Share on other sites

I just think that this time is different. Normally I would agree that XRP is at a low in its BTC ratio and would eventually bounce like before but this time I don't see the incentive to buy back in to pump the price. XRP is radioactive thanks to the SEC so it doesn't get to take part part in this bull run unless Ripple settles and it sounds like they aren't interested so you'll be holding onto XRP going lower and lower in BTC ratio and bouncing between 15-30 cents. This is the definition of dead money.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/16/2021 at 8:46 PM, Plikk said:

I like your post, and mostly agree. But the opportunity cost for XRP in the last 3 years has gone from bad to worse. I had put too much faith in the team of Ripple, only to be screwed over by Brad and Chris. I find it outrageous how especially Brad has pumped up news every chance he got, while selling with smart bots on these same events to cash him hundreds of millions. They clearly abused the unregulated crypto space to their own advantage, and not even in the advantage of Ripple. But well, most projects in crypto have seen very fishy behaviour by either founders or developers.

For me, the risk has become too big and I diversified into other projects which are still well below ATH. Until now this has been a good choice, but as you said, XRP is extremely low valued compared to the rest of the market and especially traders will take their advantage. I have learned from my crypto experience that fundamentals don't matter that much and if you literally picke any top 100 coin in a bullmarket, you are a winner. I always wanted to be a winner with XRP, and I may jump back into XRP if a golden opportunity presents itself. But for now, I'd rather be a winner with other projects. 

I wish everyone good luck with their endeavors, for both XRP and otherwise.

This is how I feel.  This ridiculous notion of being "loyal" to an asset has to be dismissed once and for all too.  We have the ability to change our course based on incoming information, and there should be no restriction to our direction of travel based on some weird notion of "loyalty" or sunk-cost fallacy.  This is what annoys me the most about "maxis" of any asset - the idea of "holding strong" and "talking up" an asset incessantly and "not even thinking of selling".  Also remember that not even the shills are what they seem.  YouTuber XRP "maxis" are working a job.  Their maxi-attitude is their "brand" and they make fiat money from advertising on a daily basis to continue their fixed narrative.  If DAI decided XRP isn't "the one", his subscriber base would drop considerably...because he's denouncing his "brand" (his brand being "I'm an XRP alpha-maxi, you come to me for reassurance").  You're living through an "information war" of sorts, and you shouldn't see anyone as being an "ally" to your portfolio.  There's no "army", just you...like John Rambo :D

Up until the SEC filing, from my limited retail trader perspective, the fundamentals for XRP looked good.  Then....new information comes to light, and suddenly the SEC are antagonistic to Ripple whereas it was often insinuated by Ripple that they "were working closely with regulators".  That claim is highly equivocal now.  It's also becoming clear that there's a huge conflict of interest in the upper management of Ripple.  Not just the conflict between the arduous tasks of business growth versus selling XRP which is easier and more profitable, but the conflict directly against retail traders. Talking-up the mere promise of business growth (and thus, inflating XRP's price so you can sell higher with bots) is easier than actual business growth. The fact that the "XRP space" has always been full of conspiracy theories is largely due to a lack of actual business growth at Ripple - always promises of jam tomorrow, but no real delivery.  Over 3 years of this conspiracy nonsense is tantamount to gaslighting. Today, ODL volume is a trickle of around $1M a day.  Why is that? "Hurr durr lack of regularity clarity!".  Really...in overseas corridors where XRP has been explicitly deemed a currency? If the SEC determine everything because Ripple are based in the US, it's a no-brainer to HQ outside the US in a country that deems XRP a currency then.  Not once have Ripple ever denounced any of these theories either, particularly when just about every conspiracy theory is about Ripple themselves.  They could have said "these are nonsense, you'll know what Ripple are up to via our press releases". 

I still hold XRP but now I think it's small enough for me not to worry about rather than before when I always thought my bag was never big enough. 

Edited by 2ndtimearound
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/16/2021 at 5:30 PM, trubbleinmind said:

that article is hilarious

the anonymous author learns that his american friend is using a VPN to access one of the scammiest offshore exchanges, concludes tether must be a scam too

if someone got this far in crypto and didn't know how offshore exchanges operate - i'm not sure I want to hear their opinion on the overall viability of the ecosystem

His name is Robert Paulson

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/16/2021 at 2:46 PM, Plikk said:

I like your post, and mostly agree. But the opportunity cost for XRP in the last 3 years has gone from bad to worse. I had put too much faith in the team of Ripple, only to be screwed over by Brad and Chris. I find it outrageous how especially Brad has pumped up news every chance he got, while selling with smart bots on these same events to cash him hundreds of millions. They clearly abused the unregulated crypto space to their own advantage, and not even in the advantage of Ripple. But well, most projects in crypto have seen very fishy behaviour by either founders or developers.

For me, the risk has become too big and I diversified into other projects which are still well below ATH. Until now this has been a good choice, but as you said, XRP is extremely low valued compared to the rest of the market and especially traders will take their advantage. I have learned from my crypto experience that fundamentals don't matter that much and if you literally picke any top 100 coin in a bullmarket, you are a winner. I always wanted to be a winner with XRP, and I may jump back into XRP if a golden opportunity presents itself. But for now, I'd rather be a winner with other projects. 

I wish everyone good luck with their endeavors, for both XRP and otherwise.

 

Which Other projects you prefer? 

Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, RipMcGillicuddy said:

Honestly, it's a little tougher to understand those posts trying to convince others to sell low. 

Most people on this forum and most investors in general follow 2 basic rules. 1. don't invest more than you can afford to lose. 2. buy low, sell high. 

 

Totally agree. But the author of that article likens himself and his stance on crypto (tether) to Steve Carrell's portrayal of Mark Baum in the BIG SHORT. The title is called the BIT SHORT. If this doesn't sound self-aggrandizing I don't know what does. There are people in this world that not only need to be right but desperately more than anything else need people to know they were right. People like Nouriel Roubini also called the crash that triggered the 08 recession. Now he and people similar to him espouse predictions/opinion with such a vigorous determination that leaves little to no possibility of being wrong, in their heads.

At the end of the article the guy says he might reveal his identity at some point in the future. Like, nobody cares who you are, unless you are Satoshi that is lol. The fact that he/she has released this article anonymously gives it no validity imo. 

I think we are all aware of the risk that TETHER poses to the market. Threads on this forum have been circulating for years on the tpoic.

The lack of transparency and apparent investigations surrounding them is certainly not a good thing and in the event that tether implodes it would certainly hurt the market. But to what extent? The guy's probably right. However is he over or under estimating the negative impact that event would have. 1. Leverage trading I thought his points on leverage trading were interesting, in extreme examples he says that exchanges were offering up to 100x. So who's using this leverage? Average people most likely, who most likely don't have more than a couple ten's of thousands USD on the market. One would think that it isn't these major pundits of crypto who have millions of dollars in the market. Why would they be using shady unbanked off shore exchanges, especially when they are trying to be compliant with the American government. 2. US EXCHANGES The author says that no major American exchange will use tether as a stable coin. So why is it that the only exchange (Kraken) that has a US banking charter use it. Why would they do this, to help whichever investigatory/ regulatory commission track and or police it. 

Hard to say why people do anything, much less unsolicitedly tell people what they should do financially

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Kobraspes said:

Which Other projects you prefer? 

For now mostly ADA, TRX, VET and XTZ. I even hold some XLM since it looks primed to break out of the bull pennant. But that’s just for a quick buck, don’t know if I’d hold it long term. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, XRPage said:

I don't understand these posts trying to convince others to not sell. Real reason why this user doesn't want others to sell: he/she has heavy bags and wants to sell them at a higher price. Period. 

hahahahaha you've been here breaking our balls for months (years) trying to convince people to sell XRP because it is a shit coin and it turns out that you do not understand a publication that gives an opinion on why not sell XRP or why not buy BTC at this time (which is basically what you do but in the opposite direction, well, with the difference that you only bark, you do not contribute anything), after analyzing your behavior, you should not be the smartest in your environment, right?

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Plikk said:

For now mostly ADA, TRX, VET and XTZ. I even hold some XLM since it looks primed to break out of the bull pennant. But that’s just for a quick buck, don’t know if I’d hold it long term. 

that looks like a golden hand, good luck...and you own FLR which is the joker that might double your holdings.

Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Julian_Williams said:

that looks like a golden hand, good luck...and you own FLR which is the joker that might double your holdings.

Thanks. Luckily I held on to XRP during the FLR airdrop, so I am entitled to a big stack of Spark tokens. I now regard my XRP journey as a hard lesson taught, with a hope that FLR eventually will make all the effort of the last 3 years worthwile. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now


×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.