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Worst-case scenario for XRP?


elppir
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Just speaking my mind out loud here, I don't want to offend anyone in any way! ;-)

I wonder what would be the worst case scenario for XRP if Ripple gets hit real hard by the SEC and maybe other government organisations who could join the SEC?

I am thinking about Technical development and continuity.

Could Ripple as a company stop to exist?

The value of XPP, would it become totally worthless and eventually vanish?

The large amount of XRP that Ripple holds in escrow?

Would it have implications on Flare as well?

Are we XRP hodlers to dependent on Ripple? Sitting on our coins and hoping it will turn out in a good way? Could XRP be more successful if we leave Ripple behind?

 

Y'all know much more about these things than I do, I guess! What are your thoughts??

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The absolute worst case I see, but with low probability to happen is that XRP is considered a security.

-Ripple will receive a huge fine

-Most of the exchanges will delist it because of illegal selling of unregistered securities.

-Price and volumes will plummet.

-The utility and use case of XRP will be lost.

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guessing is my middle name :) Here goes:

What I see on the near horizon worst case is a huge fine for Ripple and them leaving the USA - settling in one of Japan,Singapore,Swiss or England.

TechDev and Continuity: I see not much difference there

Ripple will not (yet) stop to exist

value of XRP: If only we knew :-)

Escrow: If SEC and Ripple would want to make a deal, but I don't see that happening. I see Ripple choosing to leave USA over making a deal they don't want

Flare: no implication, although might shed some light what the relationship Flare<->Ripple exactly is ..

XRP hodlers dependent on Ripple: euh...yes, but there will still be the company Ripple, only not in USA

 

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34 minutes ago, XRPwatch said:

XRP is looking like the new Bitconnect right now. The SEC case could take years to resolve. I just sold out while I still had some profit left. It's over for now.

Selling might turn out to be the smartest thing if you're still on a profit. At this moment there is no profit for me so I will hold on a bit longer and hope for the best.

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18 minutes ago, elppir said:

Selling might turn out to be the smartest thing if you're still on a profit. At this moment there is no profit for me so I will hold on a bit longer and hope for the best.

Good luck!. I'm really sad about this. Thought we were on the verge of something great.

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XRP cannot be declared a security, because the asset is global and non-contractual. 

Amazing people still don't understand this after years. It is not the ASSET that is the security, but the TRANSACTION(S). (Exception being the unlikely event an ENTIRE asset represents all illicit transactions/contracts).

It is the Ripple and early founder transactions that are under scrutiny, as well as Ripple et al's ability to manipulate (even unintentionally) the perception in the market (and thus, in effect, the market) through information flow ("assymetry"). SEC cannot declare XRP held by you or me, or some guy in Japan, "a" security. That doesn't even make sense logically or grammatically. Please, please, understand this.

The issue at stake is the raising of funds ("contract") by Ripple and other holders in an unregistered/illicit fashion and the ongoing market dominance. Period. 

Worse case? Ripple are reduced to a small ineeffectual company, XRP hits all time lows, most exchanges delist, development stops on the XRPL (unlikely) – but everything else carries on as usual and the average Joe isn't affected aside from the price drop and lack of liquidity/development.

Don't see that happening personally. I think Ripple will settle, pay a hefty fine, draw up a legally agreed distribution/wind-down plan, and we all carry on. For now, I think the price will stagnate asinstitutional money flows into BTC/ETH and cannot touch the more risky XRP until this is over.

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I just wonder why Ripple or should we say Chris & Brad didn't choose to settle. The legal process will last probably for years and markets do not like uncertainties.

Ripple has been ignoring for years the community aspect of the crypto markets. I do not think they will change course and keep doing whatever they see best fit. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by zerpian
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26 minutes ago, thinlyspread said:

Amazing people still don't understand this after years. It is not the ASSET that is the security, but the TRANSACTION(S). (Exception being the unlikely event an ENTIRE asset represents all illicit transactions/contracts).

Care to explain? Why can't the asset be the security.

To me it can 100%.

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24 minutes ago, elppir said:

Some serious damage has been done, and the hammer is quite big. I understand that this won't pass in a few weeks or even months. The longer this takes the worse it gets imo.

What would you advise Ripple to do?

Personally, if I were Brad, I would let the legal team handle it through the holidays and gather all of the information and details. Then I would map out options and strategies. 

Finally, I would approach the incoming administration and have a sit down with key decision makers, including legal counsel but only if the legal counsel does not recommend against it.

The purpose would be to aggressively seek a path forward for all parties, including how XRP can be used, sold etc. That would relieve the pressures surrounding uncertainty. They can build from there. One thing a CEO has to be careful with is ego, especially if they're caught openly selling millions of dollars worth of XRP and retail investors are losing, at least on paper.

If Ripple doesn't act aggressively to get these things sorted out, then a consequence is for XRP to get delisted by exchanges. If say a large US entity in the crypto space decided to delist XRP, then things will get worse for them, and consequently us. 

Brad needs to check his ego at the door and still be assertive like never before 

 

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I am not worried about SEC. America is not the center of the world. What worries me is that ODL is most likely not cost effective as Ripple claim it to be.

How can this be sustainable???

"340. Between early 2019 and July 2020, the “Money Transmitter” conducted the overwhelming majority of XRP trading volume in connection with ODL. Ripple had to pay the 
Money Transmitter significant financial compensation—often paid in XRP—in exchange for the Money Transmitter’s agreement to help Ripple increase volume on ODL.
341. Specifically, from 2019 through June 2020, Ripple paid the Money Transmitter 200 million XRP, which the Money Transmitter immediately monetized by selling XRP into the public market, typically on the very days it received XRP from Ripple. The Money Transmitter publicly disclosed earning over $52 million in fees and incentives from Ripple through September 2020."

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4 minutes ago, Kiwi said:

I am not worried about SEC. America is not the center of the world. What worries me is that ODL is most likely not cost effective as Ripple claim it to be.

How can this be sustainable???

"340. Between early 2019 and July 2020, the “Money Transmitter” conducted the overwhelming majority of XRP trading volume in connection with ODL. Ripple had to pay the 
Money Transmitter significant financial compensation—often paid in XRP—in exchange for the Money Transmitter’s agreement to help Ripple increase volume on ODL.
341. Specifically, from 2019 through June 2020, Ripple paid the Money Transmitter 200 million XRP, which the Money Transmitter immediately monetized by selling XRP into the public market, typically on the very days it received XRP from Ripple. The Money Transmitter publicly disclosed earning over $52 million in fees and incentives from Ripple through September 2020."

basically guys we paid (in lost gains) for Moneygram to run their business for almost 1 year. 

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