Spark(FLR) IOU / INR pair is now trading

[xrp_sea]

Surprisingly, FLR (IOU) is currently trading at around 35 INR ($0.48 USD)! Let's see how long this lasts.

 

https://www.giottus.com/tradeview?basecoin=INR&paircoin=FLR/INR

[Julian_Williams]

It is much higher than anyone predicted, but this on an Indian exchange at very low volume, so it is unlikely to be representative of the market. 

It would have a market cap that would put it high in the rankings.

Edited December 19, 2020 by Julian_Williams

[xrp_sea]

21 minutes ago, Julian_Williams said:

It is much higher than anyone predicted, but this on an Indian exchange at very low volume, so it is unlikely to be representative of the market. 

It would have a market cap that would put it high in the rankings.

Agreed, but it's a good early sign though. I was anticipating that it would only be trading for just a few cents or lower. I believe a few others like Bitrue are going to be trading it soon. It'll be interesting to watch.

[BillyOckham]

9 minutes ago, xrp_sea said:

Agreed, but it's a good early sign though. I was anticipating that it would only be trading for just a few cents or lower. I believe a few others like Bitrue are going to be trading it soon. It'll be interesting to watch.

I thought it would be lucky to hit the old XRP price of 0.006c

 

But opinion around here puts it much higher.  Many seem to think around 10%.  But possibly that’s just the enthusiasm of XRP holders talking...   maybe when it is traded out in the real world with proper volumes it will be closer to my estimate.  Time will tell.  And I’d love to be wrong.

[Flintstone]

1 hour ago, BillyOckham said:

I thought it would be lucky to hit the old XRP price of 0.006c

I’ll have orders set lower than that  

[Julian_Williams]

1 hour ago, BillyOckham said:

I thought it would be lucky to hit the old XRP price of 0.006c

 

But opinion around here puts it much higher.  Many seem to think around 10%.  But possibly that’s just the enthusiasm of XRP holders talking...   maybe when it is traded out in the real world with proper volumes it will be closer to my estimate.  Time will tell.  And I’d love to be wrong.

£6,000 would buy you a million Spark.  over my budget.

[XRP-JAG]

Can’t imagine going to be much demand is there? If you wanted to own some, surely you’d just have held some XRP for the day, and got it for free.

[BillyOckham]

3 minutes ago, XRP-JAG said:

Can’t imagine going to be much demand is there? If you wanted to own some, surely you’d just have held some XRP for the day, and got it for free.

Actually you might have put your finger on why I will be wrong and the price solidly into full cents or higher.

Probably the only people who will initially be buying (and a few have already indicated this,) are XRP folk who see this as the new Etherium.  So since they already start with a mental valuation of at least 10% XRP they might be willing to pay higher even.

Anyway...  if I had to value it I would start at least a few cycles back in price to any existing chain.  But I’m in the minority on this I think.  I think it has enormous potential but the world is littered with dead projects that had enormous potential.  So I hope to be wrong,  but wouldn’t be shocked at hundredths of a cent.

[nads11]

 

[aavkk]

3 hours ago, BillyOckham said:

I thought it would be lucky to hit the old XRP price of 0.006c

 

But opinion around here puts it much higher.  Many seem to think around 10%.  But possibly that’s just the enthusiasm of XRP holders talking...   maybe when it is traded out in the real world with proper volumes it will be closer to my estimate.  Time will tell.  And I’d love to be wrong.

This was my initial thought as well but as I thought more about it XRP's price of .006 was really before there was any pipeline of clients that offered expected utility.  Flare appears to be coming out of the gates with quite a lot of utility or at leas the expectation of widespread utility.  I would certainly expect quite a lot of volatility... even for crypto! There may very well be some money to be made here for just holding XRP.  Of course, even with my limited technical understanding of the protocol it seems if Flare does what it claims and we see utility than this would appear to bring ever increasing utility to XRP itself.  And the fact that all of this is being accomplished via an independent entity not tied to Ripple is huge as it further improves decentralization of the network.  In other words there is potentially a lot of value here that is beyond just the unit price of FLR.

[BillyOckham]

9 minutes ago, aavkk said:

In other words there is potentially a lot of value here that is beyond just the unit price of FLR.

Oh I agree with you completely.  I just thought that was unlikely to be reflected in price initially...    but perhaps you are right in that the utility is closer than XRP was in that earlier stage.

I’m thinking this is one of those times I’m maybe likely to find I was looking at everything backwards...  has happened many times before.    

[thinlyspread]

This seems like when Tezos (XTZ) IOUs/futures launched on a sketchy exchange and hit $10 then immediately crashed. XTZ has never since made $10 (yet anyway). 

So I take this "valuation" with one massive pinch of salt! 

Edited December 20, 2020 by thinlyspread

[Skippy]

If the real price of Spark was in the $0.30 range, the price of XRP would've massively risen/dropped during the snapshot time... If the total FLR dropped is around 1:1 to the amount of XRP held and the price fluctuated about 4 cents during the airdrop, then one could estimate one FLR to be around 4 cents. Give or take... Probably less. 

[BillyOckham]

2 hours ago, Skippy said:

If the real price of Spark was in the $0.30 range, the price of XRP would've massively risen/dropped during the snapshot time... If the total FLR dropped is around 1:1 to the amount of XRP held and the price fluctuated about 4 cents during the airdrop, then one could estimate one FLR to be around 4 cents. Give or take... Probably less. 

I think you might be assuming perfect knowledge in the marketplace.

To attribute any XRP price change to Flare we have to assume that the entire market knows about it, and is factoring it into the XRP price.  Furthermore we would have to assume that the market has correctly valued Spark already and factored that into the XRP price.  And that the market considers merely waiting for Spark to be for sale on the market is not going to be the best way into Flare...  that instead it’s better to purchase XRP to then be airdropped the Spark.

I think all of those various assumptions are a massive stretch.  I’ve probably even missed a few.  So any normal stock type calculations of present value and apportionment based on price movements is likely to be totally incorrect in my opinion.

[xrp_sea]

3 hours ago, Skippy said:

If the real price of Spark was in the $0.30 range, the price of XRP would've massively risen/dropped during the snapshot time... If the total FLR dropped is around 1:1 to the amount of XRP held and the price fluctuated about 4 cents during the airdrop, then one could estimate one FLR to be around 4 cents. Give or take... Probably less. 

I disagree. The analogy you're using is similar to what happens with stock dividends. On the ex-dividend date, the price of a stock goes down by approximately the dividend amount (in theory). A crypto airdrop is completely different because nobody knows what the value of FLR will be. It's all just guesses and speculation.